Cheltenham Festival
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Although I do like to follow trends and statistics when it comes to the festival I do like to find some relevance as to why they are important. The one I can't get my head round at the moment is why if you finished outside of the top 4 in last year's festival can you not win the race this year.
Having watched the race from last year again a few times, in my opinion Rock on Ruby was a deserved winner and from 3 out to the finish it took him (my figures are very approximate) 55.8 seconds. Overturn was slowing and took 56.72, Hurricane Fly 56.4, Binocular 56.68 and Zarkandar 56.4.
Zarkandar had only had raced once before last year's race, when winning the Betfair Hurdle after being slightly impeded by a falling Darlan and it looked like he needed the run.
During the CH it looked like he hit a flat spot between the 3rd and 2nd last (he ran it in 17.32 second, ROR 16.72, Ov 16.8, HF 16.72 and Bi 17.2) but when recovering from 2 out to the finish it took him 39.08 seconds which was the same as ROR (Ov 39.92, HF 39.68 & Binocular 39.48).
Given the battles he had with Prospect Wells and in the International Hurdle I was not surprised that he was given such soft treatment at Wincanton last time and it looked to me like he idled in front with still a reasonable way to go.
In summary I think he is best when tracking the pace and produced from the second last for a battle up the hill and think he should be ridden accordingly. If this happens I think he has a fantastic chance in the race and in all honesty should be favourite.
Having watched the race from last year again a few times, in my opinion Rock on Ruby was a deserved winner and from 3 out to the finish it took him (my figures are very approximate) 55.8 seconds. Overturn was slowing and took 56.72, Hurricane Fly 56.4, Binocular 56.68 and Zarkandar 56.4.
Zarkandar had only had raced once before last year's race, when winning the Betfair Hurdle after being slightly impeded by a falling Darlan and it looked like he needed the run.
During the CH it looked like he hit a flat spot between the 3rd and 2nd last (he ran it in 17.32 second, ROR 16.72, Ov 16.8, HF 16.72 and Bi 17.2) but when recovering from 2 out to the finish it took him 39.08 seconds which was the same as ROR (Ov 39.92, HF 39.68 & Binocular 39.48).
Given the battles he had with Prospect Wells and in the International Hurdle I was not surprised that he was given such soft treatment at Wincanton last time and it looked to me like he idled in front with still a reasonable way to go.
In summary I think he is best when tracking the pace and produced from the second last for a battle up the hill and think he should be ridden accordingly. If this happens I think he has a fantastic chance in the race and in all honesty should be favourite.
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they've already said that is how he will be ridden near the pace
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most likely winner imo
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Only problem I can see is who is going to set the pace this year ?,could end up a shock result IMO
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Good analysis. The horse is still young wnough to be improving, the yard is in cracking form, and the rain that's forecast will help.
Looks a solid e/w bet. |
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The Fly could be setting the pace, Ruby wont be taking any chances. I can see Zarkander winning this race and taking on Oscar Whisky for the Aintree hurdle
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Agree with most of OP other than imo HF is the rightful favourite
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Zark had a wind op in the summer too.
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Will he be able to hold a position near the pace, and what will happen to him when they quicken, we know about the different horse this year, but we've seen in all his races periods where he hasn't travelled as well as his rivals, yes he's ground it out, but in that crucial part of the CH where it all kicks off, there is a very strong possibility that he'll be left for dead, IMO.
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Total myth that he's slow, based around the fact he's a good stayer people incorrectly assume he's slow
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It's more based around the fact that it's harder work for him to maintain his position in a race and when the pace quickens, he can't react immediately to it, he might get away with it earlier in the season against horses coming back from lay-offs or against inferior opposition but it will be a lot tougher on better ground in a CH.
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Ruby Walsh said in one of the preview nights last year that Zarkandar was to slow to win a champion. I dont think he can win unless there is a blistering pace. I backed him last year and he flew up the hill but i think Rock on Ruby was an easy winner and will take all the beating again.
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Ruby Walsh said in one of the preview nights last year that Zarkandar was to slow to win a champion. I dont think he can win unless there is a blistering pace. I backed him last year and he flew up the hill but i think Rock on Ruby was an easy winner and will take all the beating again.
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last year he was 5 and not at his best.
hes a lot better and fitter horse now,and unlike some has had a perfect prep. |
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Good points all but i just dont see him being quick enough.I must admit to being worried about him tho.Might do forecast wi ROR.
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he has plenty enough speed on my speed ratings
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The thing is though, last year he won one of the most competitive handicap hurdles of the year whilst he wasn't well and this year when fighting fit, he put in a performance in the kingwell that I'd argue wasn't that impressive, I mean, between the last two brennan thought he was winning it on khyber kim!!!, now I know there is obviously something left to work on, but sick horse, healthy horse, it should visually be a lot more noticeable than it has been, supporters of him can't be impressed with the closing stages of the kingwell IMO.
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Belfast - As HF is a speed horse, I will be astounded if he makes the running.
When do you ever see a slow CH? It will be hell for leather which will suit the staying 2 milers, Zark & ROR. Maybe even C&A |
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I agree with crescent and duffy...
I can see him charging home for a place but wouldn't want to be a backer when they quicken coming down the hill. I also think the pace might not be hell for leather and that makes it even harder for him to win. |
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The winner of the CH will have to be able to hold a position not too far off the pace throughout, CH winners do not come from very far back.
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I've been extremely impressed all season, jumping slickly and repelling all boarders with minimum fuss
when Jacob gets him going up that hill it's gonna take him two fur;longs to pull up! |
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duffy, in his Q&A PFN said Zark will be ridden close to the pace as he has all season, he will not be held up and if Jacob feels they are going too slow he will make it
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Brennan thought he was winning it? never looked like it on my tv!!
Think he may have been thinking similar to others and underestimating Zarkandar somewhat. This horse is tailor made for the Churdle,got everything a horse needs. |
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^ But he's not that good is he?
It's very hard for a horse to make all in a championship race, and even more so if it's a new tactic in my opinion. I can see him being close to the pace but the field going a stride slower than ideal for him. Suddenly the coals will be shovelled on the fire as they come down the hill and he'll be fifth or sixth without the best run and being pumped along. I'm sure you're right that he'll finish better than anything. but that'll be no good to backers if the others have flown (as they did last year). He looks a better horse this year and has had a much better prep but I think it looks at least as strong a race and I don't think he's any faster, which means the same old problem is there to overcome. |
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Zark is no slower than RoR, both are more wind up speed than injection of pace horses like Grandouet & Fly
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You have to laugh when people think that all zarkandar has to do is stay up with the pace, as if he is going to have the same kick up the hill like he did last season. He will have to use more energy staying up with the pace, so he will no way finish in the same way. It jsut won't be happening for the Zarkandar backers. If he stays up he will fall back and they will all go past him. If he falls back he won't have the pace to over take them all, as something will nick a march. He's stuck between a rock and a hard place.
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I think he is an exceptional horse
and I'll tell you why: he ran the fastest time by any juvenile in the season when winning the Adonis Hurdle Grade 2 on debut This, for me, marked him down as an exceptional horse and made him a good thing for the Triumph. Unfortunately, he had a truncated 5 yo season but still managed to win The Betfair off topweight. I don't think we have seen ANYWHERE near his best yet simply due to circumstances. Claims that he is 'not that good' re surely premature as he has not yet been exposed. We might know how good he is next Tuesday |
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I am fully prepared to be wrong about Zarkandar but i have watched last years race again and ROR had a good look around going to the last and let the others close back up but he won going away, if the ground is similar he's got to be hard to beat.He's had a good preparation and the trainer has stated all along that Tuesday is the only day that matters for him.I just hope the rain stays away.
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His finishing kick from last year flatters him, when the horses in front of him quickened, he never saw which way they went, by the time he finally got going, their runs had flattened out, that's all, he closed down spent horses,
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Last year is last year, this year is this year. People need to forget last years form. Most Champion Hurdle winners never run to the same level again.
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Yep,we aint seen the best of him yet for sure,well as sure as one can be.
People need to forget his run last year in the race.His form this season is as good if not better as any in the race. He will be up with the pace and will keep going all the way to the line,thats what he does,any horse that tries to get past best be prepared to fight. Thats why i think its between him and ROR.A stayer wins this one. IMO of course. |
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You don't fancy HF then CV?
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Reading the posts on this thread made me start thinking about Zarkandar, questioning my rationale for picking him. Then Graeme joins in saying he cannot win and.....breathe......I realise I have a good bet!
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roobuck, you have been consistent with this horse right through
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it's a common theme that pops up when discussing unexposed horses I find and I'm talking about getting pigeonholed far too soon i.e before they have fully developed and then been raced in stronger enough company for them to have to produce their best effort yet. Zarkandar has had 9 runs in hurdles, all in graded races, won seven including two grade ones, fallen once and been 5th in a champion hurdle when a sick 5yo
just saying it is impossible to say how good he is yet, his career really gets going next week as pretty much everything he's done has been to prepare him to run for his life in that race similar types would be the 3 market leaders in the Gold Cup |
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As have you duffy
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Fair enough, and I do agree with that. It's just that he's almost half the price of Grandouet, who fits the same profile...
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Amazing how people forgive the run of Zarkandar but not Hurricane Fly
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"Reading the posts on this thread made me start thinking about Zarkandar, questioning my rationale for picking him. Then Graeme joins in saying he cannot win and.....breathe......I realise I have a good bet!"
Then i re-programme you and remind you that you are a synthetic and i am an organic, so i take precedent over you. |
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do you not think the now healthy 6yo has more scope to improve than the 9yo?
forgiving a 5yo a run in a champion hurdle is much easier than a defending champ |