Cheltenham Festival
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The organics vs synthetics aka stat/trends punters vs the knowledgable
The organics vs synthetics aka stat/trends punters vs the knowledgable
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I actually in regards to the topic there are broadly to schools of thought.
First you have those like judo and JOCI who use trends and stats as a starting point and will on the whole eliminate horses that way to provide a short list and then make an evaluation. I, and am assuming others, however will look at either a horse or the race ( depending how far away the race is )and make a decision based on form, a visual impression and more pertinently on the flat for me its breeding. With experience I have learned to understand the requirements of winning a particular race and this information is almost like a sub-conscious referral to trends. But in a sense this is the secondary aspect. There are are of course huge variations of the above but as I and others have said there is no 'right' way - there is the right way for each individual and I am sure these develop and change. What I wouldn't do however is dismiss a horse if it failed to meet a stat. The obvious one at the moment is Dynaste in the RSA. I don't want to start another debate on that horse but for me I will not be backing it for the RSA purely on price terms. Visually for me I see it most suited to the demands of the Jewson but as I look at the probable field for the RSA, if it turned up for it I see Dynaste as by far on form the most likely winner. Not backing it would in truth be nothing to do with the stats, but the visual impression his win at Cheltenham made on me in that his speed is his greatest weapon. |
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@roobuck, agree with you about not dismissing a horse based on stats, and the arguement on dynaste is a most pertinent one. Just because he doesn't fit the trends doesn't mean he can't win. Those stats applied to previous runners and not to him. Dynaste would need to be judged on his merit for the race, not those that have preceded him. The Feltham one is the most controversial for me, its needs to be analysed as to what about 3m at Kempton may not be suitable to winning at Cheltenham. Does this factor impinge on Dynaste's chances in the race (if he turns up). The stats are useful but only to the point where they are actually applicable to the horse in question.
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Couple of good,sensible posts there.
Probably cos i agree with them  But yes,they make sense,imo. |
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The Great Graeme83. With another magnificent post...still lookin for all his bets so I can lay them though...
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Graeme has put his lays up on another thread.
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I am not stats driven but I don't mind if people are guided by them more than other means, I just have a little poke at them in the context of this forum because they are delivered in a beligerent way IMO,if you question what judo says you will be abused and going by what another poster said you'll even be treated to a pm with an insult, the abuse happens regularly, in fact you could say that there is quite a trend developing
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To be fair the abuse goes both ways. Non-stats people have a go back and neither is complimentary. Get over it and get on with it!
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Where's this thread Jasey?
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A page back m8.
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