Cheltenham Festival

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Fallen Angel
27 Feb 13 21:46
Date Joined: 06 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 2,232 | Blogger: Fallen Angel's blog
Been looking at four of the likely runners in detail and the race as a whole. Conclusions were:

Carlito Brigante looks a fair favourite, course and distance winner and some form lines with other horses which have improved considerably over the season (Unioniste for instance). HIs jumping is generally sounds and will find for pressure which always think is important going up the hill and over the last two where jumping comes under the most pressure. Will almost certainly be better for better ground and if they can improve the horse towards his hurdles mark he will have a very good chance on a fair mark (will run off 137)

At a glance Course and distance winner over 2m 4f in the Martin Pipe in 2012 at the festival. 3rd in a very slowly run novice Chase event at Musselborough in February, 5m 40secs in good to soft going was receiving 5 pounds from a horse rated 132 and 8 pounds from a horse rated 139. Beaten 1 ¼ lengths total. Not sure this equates to a particularly well handicapped horse and that they all finish in a heap is a bit concerning. The time on what was reasonable ground doesn't lend to a great deal of analysis. Again looks short enough and seems to be entirely cheltenham hurdles form rather than its actually chase performances which support such low quotes.

Colour Squadron, I couldn't have this horse as 2nd favourite in a million years, hasn't shown anything much over fences, best form was beaten by Fago who has subsequently flopped and all his best form both hurdles and chase is at Newbury. They obviously like this horse a lot at home as he seems to go off very short each time after disappointing,  has not shown to be a natural over fences and didn't find a great deal last time. I am not even sure the form suggests he will improve for good ground. If this goes off at 10/1 or shorter I will be laying for a place

The Druids Nephew - I like this horse alot. The Albert Barlett is working out quite well and he has form with some of the significant improvers of the year. Hadrians Approach and Rolling Aces have both improved a bundle and Grandiso also won both a handicap and another Novice Chase after being beaten by TDN. Really feel this horse could be up to 10 pounds well in running off 135, and generally best over good / good to soft ground. Not sure why this horse isn't shorter in the betting apart from the fact its from an unfashionable yard.

Be interested
Pause Switch to Standard View Pultney Land Novices Chase
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Report Fallen Angel February 27, 2013 9:46 PM GMT
be interested to know other thoughts
Report sc1883 February 27, 2013 9:59 PM GMT
glad to see im not the only one fancying the druids nephew. form lines with the likes of hadrians approach & grandioso reads very well but the stat that interests me is that all 3 runs have been on right handed tracks and the horse as a tendancy to jump to left and lost valuable yards at numerous fences. obviously at cheltenham id expect the left handed course to bring out further improvement to the form shown and off 135 must be there or thereabouts!
Report judorick February 27, 2013 10:02 PM GMT
colour squadron to make remarkable improvement due to the application of large chunks of money
Report Fallen Angel February 27, 2013 10:22 PM GMT
@judorick Grin yes if i lay it I will have to dodge the bullet that it might actually be trying. I am just counting on him not actually being any good Confused
Report judorick February 27, 2013 10:25 PM GMT
I have a rating for him, let me go see what his OR is... brb
Report judorick February 27, 2013 10:27 PM GMT
my rating for him is 148, runs off 139, certainly potential to improve especially if it hasn't been trying
Report Fallen Angel February 27, 2013 10:51 PM GMT
I have to say I haven't got him running to anything like that figure but I will have another look at the videos.
Report ADR_Brentford February 27, 2013 11:01 PM GMT
Been looking at this race tonight and although unoriginal, I thought Carlito brigante and the Druids nephew jumped off the page
Report judorick February 27, 2013 11:01 PM GMT
that is a potential figure, not what he has already run to, i.e what he could run to
Report deepingfox February 27, 2013 11:20 PM GMT
Garynella NRNB, cold be a Pipe Plot, running this weekend, gets in one of the Festival races for sure if he wins that.  But only take NRNB.
Report Tatie Baron February 28, 2013 7:45 AM GMT
I have a strong feeling that by 5.15 on Tues March 12th Colour Squadron will miraculously have learned how to stop running into the bottom of the fences and also realise what he has to do when the handbrake is released. Just a hunch Wink
Report sageform February 28, 2013 7:48 AM GMT
I am a big fan of The Druids but the stable have been very quiet indeed and that worries me. Colour Squadron has not looked a natural jumper and Philip Hobbs is not in great form either. Arthurs Pass and Parsnip Pete are half brothers and both are progressing. Pete couldn't handle the heavy ground last time and is probably better over 2 miles but Arthurs Pass who runs today is very interesting. He probably needs a penalty to get into the Pulteney.
Report stevo1 February 28, 2013 11:03 AM GMT
The Cockney Mackem
Report sageform February 28, 2013 6:20 PM GMT
Arthurs Pass won as he liked again today beating 2 fair types so onwards to the Pultney.
Report sabolah1 February 28, 2013 7:26 PM GMT
This race has been the target for The Druid for a long time. He ran a great race at Ascot and surprised us a little, even though he jumped to the left his fencing was still good. Next time at Kempton he disappointed, however he cut a leg at an early fence and tweaked his back, Tom got off and said forget the run, he was a different horse at Ascot. He won very readily at Wincanton and really pleased us, his jumping was less pronounced to the left and he galloped on strongly. The form of Ascot and Wincanton is very strong and has been boosted, I have always felt he has 10lbs in hand and is well handicapped.

Better  ground and going left handed should also help.

He ran a cracker as a baby last year in the AB and if we had been a bit more positive with him could have been much closer.

All in all hopeful of a big run on the day.
Report BJG February 28, 2013 7:52 PM GMT
Cheers - good luck with him! Will b shocked if he is nt fighting out the finish Cool
Report sc1883 February 28, 2013 8:52 PM GMT
thanks for the update sabolah, best of luck!
Report Fallen Angel February 28, 2013 8:54 PM GMT
yes good luck Happy
Report Steamship February 28, 2013 9:27 PM GMT
Quite like Vulcanite owned by JP
Report ADR_Brentford February 28, 2013 9:36 PM GMT
Thanks sabolah. Best of luck. Win or lose hope he runs a cracker.
Report sabolah1 March 1, 2013 7:00 AM GMT
Thanks for all the good wishes. Really looking forward to it.
Report Workforce March 1, 2013 8:18 PM GMT
Thanks sabolah1

Best of luck, think this has a good chance and well handicapped. One thing though, please please do not let Scudamore go blasting off in front at a million miles an hour. Tough enough to make all in a festival race at the best of times. See Kazlian last year if you want a reference.

Mid-div would be a good tactic to adopt imo!

Best of luck.
Report sabolah1 March 2, 2013 9:59 AM GMT
Ha, no chance of that Workforce, Andy always has the jocks well drilled at Cheltenham, he always says they go way too fast and the race isn't won at the start of the straight, and it's a long way up the hill. Nick will be back in the saddle and his cool head and experience from last years win on Hunt Ball makes him the perfect man.

I would say lay up off the pace, he maybe will be  slightly outpaced at the top of the hill, then running on strongly up the hill, take it up jumping the last!

Well if only it was that easy.... But you can dream!
Report JOCI Club March 2, 2013 10:27 AM GMT
Just working through this race now. Loads of runners, so time consuming. Verdict later.
Report Stake & Chips March 2, 2013 10:45 AM GMT
Garynella after winning today,perhaps?
Report Workforce March 2, 2013 12:03 PM GMT
Excellent news sabolah1. On that basis I think I'll go in again!
Report JOCI Club March 2, 2013 12:19 PM GMT
The Druids Nephew comes out clear top rated on my trends analysis.
Report conditor March 2, 2013 7:57 PM GMT
Please Talk Whoops,
Report festivalfanatic March 2, 2013 8:03 PM GMT
Taking a big chance with the Andy. Can't train white mice these days. Oh that he had a fraction of the talent of his late dad Bob.
Report Mystic Wind March 3, 2013 3:20 PM GMT
Buckers Bridge for me. I'd imagine that Henry de Bromhead is both delighted and surprised that the handicapper gave a mark of just 140 (the ceiling for this) after winning the Flyingbolt. I had a lumpy bet on Twinlight for that, and despite Ruby giving the latter what I thought was a perfect ride (set slow pace, quicken from the front & do 'em for toe), BB managed to get up. Indications are that he'll love the hill. He's also entered in the Jewson, but surely the temptation to run off 140 will be too great, especially in what is likely to be a very compressed handicap.

The other horse I like who's entered for this is Shangani, but I'm hoping he runs in the Grand Annual over a trip he's better suited to imo (I've backed him for that).
Report JackieMoon33 March 3, 2013 6:49 PM GMT
Re: Buckers Bridge

One horse unlikely to travel though is Buckers Bridge, narrow winner of the Flyingbolt at Navan last week, and likely to wait for the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse over Easter.
Report Mystic Wind March 3, 2013 7:38 PM GMT
Thanks Jackie, hadn't spotted that. Hopefully the temptation of being able to run off 140 will be too hard to resist. I can understand HdB wanting to give him a break given his previous flop, but that followed a gut-wrenching run whereas the Flyingbolt was a glorified sprint and won't have taken too much out of him.

BTW, have a look at Pont Alexandre's last race and you'll see why HdB describes Sizing Gold as "gorgeous". I've had a few quid on for the AB, but I'm really hoping for buckets of rain & a re-route to the Neptune, where I'm on at 1000 to small money! Could be an RSA horse next year.
Report Belmez March 3, 2013 8:25 PM GMT
Backed White Star Line last year and no match for Hunt Ball - has now had 3 runs at Chelt. Seems well handicapped to me
and will  again have my money if getting into race. The question is - will this be a better race than last year?
Report chief dan March 3, 2013 8:36 PM GMT
the winner will hopefully come from 1 of these 4 lol Attaglance,Hazy Tom,Ohio Gold,Cockney Mackem fair play hope all this studing in these handicaps pay off its been a long dayCrazy
Report onehundredandeighty March 3, 2013 8:38 PM GMT
Shurrup Belmez Whoopslol
Report Fallen Angel March 4, 2013 2:04 PM GMT
@sabolah, how many people in the Syndicate?

Going to have another look at this race. All the ante-post 14s has gone now which is a shame. Hoping that it might be taken on on the day by the books as money comes for others. Will hopefully have a bit more on then.
Report sabolah1 March 4, 2013 3:20 PM GMT
There are five of us in the Stonehenge Druids.

Price has contracted from 20/1 last week to current, IMO I think as we get closer and running plans firm up a bit more people look at the handicaps. I don't think many people will miss the form lines and the fact that he seems to be well handicapped. Add in to that he fits the trends, some of the more fancied horses may not run or get in and all bookies go nrnb, then I expect further price reduction.

I have seen a couple of mentions re Andy and concerns over his training, if the horse was trained by a more fashionable yard he would be a lot shorter. I guess that is the beauty of the game, everyone has their opinions and you pays your money and takes your choice.
Report _royboy_ March 4, 2013 6:47 PM GMT
Carlito - still rated 16lb lower than its hurdle mark, won the coral cup of 142 easily by 6 lengths two years ago and started fav (finished 4th) in the triumph the year before. Hcap mark very well protected this year and going as well as anything 2 out in one of the hottest novice chases of the year at the open meeting (dynaste, fingal bay, unioniste)before blowing up. Elliott said recently he cant see out the first 4. An absolute stonking bet
Report Sultan March 4, 2013 7:14 PM GMT
Shangani each way 16-1 NRNB is the one for me. Impressive in last 2 victories the 2nd from it's penultimate race won next time out  and 3 rd horse in last race won well next time out( 2nd has not run since) . Went good pace in last race and returned decent speed figure.
Report Mystic Wind March 5, 2013 12:11 AM GMT
Shangani will be better placed in the Grand Annual imo, a race where novices have a good record. 2m4f might just find him out here. Nice horse though.
Report the cunning man March 5, 2013 12:37 AM GMT
Attaglance is Nick Mordin's Festival banker. A bold selection considering it's a novice handicap chase, but he eulogises about his jumping in his weekly report, and his wins in the Martin Pipe and at Aintree show he's a spring horse ideally suited to 20 furlongs. Jefferson's a trainer I like and knows how to prepare one, so the 12s seemed decent value.
Report judorick March 5, 2013 12:46 AM GMT
that was mine too cunning man
Report JOCI Club March 5, 2013 6:31 AM GMT
Attaglance makes the Top 5 shortlist according to my trends analysis too.
Report paulo47 March 5, 2013 10:24 AM GMT
Every winner finished first or second last time out ??
Report duncan idaho March 5, 2013 10:55 AM GMT
given it's hard to get a novice chaser in on a mark much below its hurdles rating these days, Attaglance is potentially remarkably well-in off 133 compared to a hurdles mark of 155....his jumping seemed fine at Muss last time, notably when the race developed into a sprint over the last 3, the worry is that he had jumped right when racing left-handed over fences prior to that according to formbook (need to watch vid)
Report duncan idaho March 5, 2013 10:58 AM GMT
02 Mar 13 20:03

Taking a big chance with the Andy. Can't train white mice these days. Oh that he had a fraction of the talent of his late dad Bob.

I had been led to believe he wasnt well at this incorrect?
Report sabolah1 March 5, 2013 11:21 PM GMT
Andy has been unwell. But on the mend now. He has been fully involved in the prep of the Druid and training of other horses.
Report alleged22 March 5, 2013 11:25 PM GMT
how often are you at the yard sabolah?
Report sabolah1 March 6, 2013 6:05 PM GMT
Try to get down there monthly, bit more frequent at the moment.

A couple of updated, last scope and bloods all good.

Jockey change is likely, just firming up plans now.
Report Sultan March 10, 2013 1:24 PM GMT
Aidan Coleman booked and the market is starting to wake up to this horse's potential now best priced 10-1.
Report Sultan March 10, 2013 1:26 PM GMT
Shangani is the horse in question
Report Leonardo March 10, 2013 1:45 PM GMT
Attaglance unlikely to be declared due to ground according to Twitter
Report Ballydoyle March 10, 2013 7:58 PM GMT
Handbrake off Colour Squadron and he will bolt up
Report 20yearsistoolongtowait March 11, 2013 8:21 AM GMT
Bally I am with you on the softer going this Colour Squadron is one of the bets of the meeting
Report sageform March 11, 2013 1:12 PM GMT
At least my 2 bets are running. The Druids Nephew and Arthurs Pass still my choices. The latter was still trading at 40 plus yesterday when the only doubt was whether he would make the cut but only 18 now. Very strange.
Report Monksfield79 March 11, 2013 1:13 PM GMT
Ground against CB.
Report judorick March 11, 2013 1:15 PM GMT
with Attaglance out I'm on Colour Squadron
Report Monksfield79 March 11, 2013 1:20 PM GMT
Bar 1 did special 15/1 CB with 15 days to go, albeit he down to run but I feel I threw a ton away on him now ground against him.

Will have 2nd bet and agree CS, even with a slip saddle he nearly beat module and had handbrake on twice since. Will only get shorter.
Report sageform March 11, 2013 8:09 PM GMT
My concern about Colour Squadron is his jumping. He was certainly ridden conservatively at Newbury and Exeter but that does not explain some pretty awful jumping despite travelling well. His jumping might fall apart completely if under pressure.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 11, 2013 8:27 PM GMT
I didnt think he jumped that badly, just had a rewatch of all his novice races. He might jump better with throttle out and plus we know he goes on soft ground.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 9:41 PM GMT
Colour Squadron (6), The Druids Nephew (7), Carlito Brigante (8), Shangani (8), Hazy Tom (16), Johns Spirit (16)
Report Sultan March 12, 2013 5:24 PM GMT
slightly dissapointing 4th but still a good profit at 16-1 e.w
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