Cheltenham Festival
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its been a strange season for UK horses running on ground normally associated with ireland, trainers/owners have taken this onboard, some waiting for better ground for their horses, some running just to get handicap marks, and some just to get a run into their horses, i think there is still loads of value available in the markets, and think the trends/stats may fail us this year, opinions/debate please
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Trends will hold up.....problem is evaluating form of the races already run...
i am strong believer MTOY Newbury run ,although visually impressive,will not hold up & for that reason it won win Supreme.....
i am strong believer MTOY Newbury run ,although visually impressive,will not hold up & for that reason it won win Supreme.....
I am a trends man,last 3/4 years been good.
Due a bad one tho
Due a bad one tho
Trends will hold up
trends will always fail yes they will get lots of winners but these same trends will fail even in in succesful years, i just personally think that this year a fair few more semi concrete stats/trends will fail
trends will always fail yes they will get lots of winners but these same trends will fail even in in succesful years, i just personally think that this year a fair few more semi concrete stats/trends will fail
Hi alleged22
A different angle..........95% of people always seem to combine the two together.
FWIW my own view is they are poles apart in many ways,yet from a punting angle if you can combine both,which is easier said than done,you will increase your strike rate.
Trends can never fail....they are continually evolving by their very nature,i.e trying to see if there is an edge to be gained from certain information that the majority may passover,or see differently.
Stats.....for this meeting alone,and only this meeting,are for me way ahead of any tool in seeking to find winners.Took me a long time to find them,and they are in no way infallible,however when faced with the competitive nature of the festival,they are very useful.
Next time you see them together,change the word stat for fact,it opened my eyes.
Have a great festival.
A different angle..........95% of people always seem to combine the two together.
FWIW my own view is they are poles apart in many ways,yet from a punting angle if you can combine both,which is easier said than done,you will increase your strike rate.
Trends can never fail....they are continually evolving by their very nature,i.e trying to see if there is an edge to be gained from certain information that the majority may passover,or see differently.
Stats.....for this meeting alone,and only this meeting,are for me way ahead of any tool in seeking to find winners.Took me a long time to find them,and they are in no way infallible,however when faced with the competitive nature of the festival,they are very useful.
Next time you see them together,change the word stat for fact,it opened my eyes.
Have a great festival.
Good starting point but always thought you have to do additional work to understand and weigh up the significance of the trend, and by the time youve done that you dont need the trend anymore anyway.
eg you might lay hurricane fly because of few horses regaining the CH plus his age, but if the opposition was poor, you would ignore the trend. So youve got to weigh up the opposition anyway. Dont get it.
eg you might lay hurricane fly because of few horses regaining the CH plus his age, but if the opposition was poor, you would ignore the trend. So youve got to weigh up the opposition anyway. Dont get it.
over the next 30 x 27 races at the Festival, taking me into an age where I probably won't care, I guarantee that long established trends will prove as consistent as they have been for the last 30 years
a trend may get snapped here and there but the long term expectation is that they will remain profitable especially in Championship and non handicap races
I say this all the time but in my long experience a horse may well be capable of beating one long term trend but once they get to two or more long held trends then it gets very difficult to win and I would say that punters expecting to bet such horses regularly and to come out in front need to do some serious research. Believe me it took me a long time, 15 Festivals I should think, before it all became clear as to why the horses I so strongly fancied, that had all the form in the book and were miles clear on the ratings repeatedly failed to deliver at the Festival.
My advice, look for the ones with fewest tough trends to snap, not the ones that might be capable of snapping their obstacles. Frequently the latter are over bet e.g
Go Native, Champion Hurdle
Detroit City, Champion Hurdle
Captain Cee Bee, Arkle
Time For Rupert RSA
Long Run RSA
Punchestowns RSA
Grands Crus RSA
Dunguib, Cousin Vinny, Cue Card Supreme Novices
and plenty more
a trend may get snapped here and there but the long term expectation is that they will remain profitable especially in Championship and non handicap races
I say this all the time but in my long experience a horse may well be capable of beating one long term trend but once they get to two or more long held trends then it gets very difficult to win and I would say that punters expecting to bet such horses regularly and to come out in front need to do some serious research. Believe me it took me a long time, 15 Festivals I should think, before it all became clear as to why the horses I so strongly fancied, that had all the form in the book and were miles clear on the ratings repeatedly failed to deliver at the Festival.
My advice, look for the ones with fewest tough trends to snap, not the ones that might be capable of snapping their obstacles. Frequently the latter are over bet e.g
Go Native, Champion Hurdle
Detroit City, Champion Hurdle
Captain Cee Bee, Arkle
Time For Rupert RSA
Long Run RSA
Punchestowns RSA
Grands Crus RSA
Dunguib, Cousin Vinny, Cue Card Supreme Novices
and plenty more
the valid trends are much more in the public domain nowadays, so i doubt their profitability will be maintained, not at the same level at least
we shall see, I am going to post a list of horses with negative trends against them and we can check how they got on
and it would be nice to see the horses with positive trends and see how they fare 
I don't tend to look at positive trends too much, normally only after I've used the elimination process to get rid of those that fail the important trends. Some other posters might be using that approach though
well obvviously those with positive trends will be high on your list and maybe your selection
"I am going to post a list of horses with negative trends against them and we can check how they got on"
That would be great. How about if i start a thread called "Judoricks Negative Trends" and you can post them there? It will not be a discussion thread as inevitably the main focus of the thread will get lost. You on?
That would be great. How about if i start a thread called "Judoricks Negative Trends" and you can post them there? It will not be a discussion thread as inevitably the main focus of the thread will get lost. You on?
I'll do it in my own time, I'm busy currently investigating the lifetime form of every horse entered in the handicaps
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