Name your lay of the festival (with reason)

Accept the ground bit, but you can't take Flem out of the race because he was there and finishing close up at that,and I would have thought that the inconvenience suffered by SDC by way of the ground would be more than compensated for by what was working against Flem namely being a non-stayer against top quality stayers and suffering from a lung infection!

Ok then Flemenstar beat a 158 rated animal 23L with a lung infection. They both ran up to around their marks. If the lung infection affected Flemenstar it didn`t affect his mark much over 3 miles.

I just think that people are expecting too much from the horse by way of improvement on better ground, in relation to enabling him to actually win the race, it's a big leap of faith for me, especially when you compare him to BW who also likes good ground,also loves cheltenham, and although inexperienced through his chase runs, doesn't look it in his races, in as much that he travels jumps battles and is always at his strongest at the end of his races, and although hasn't run for a long time, is very very good when fresh.

I agree with the effect of the "lung infection" "bronchitis", I don't think he was suffering from that sort of ailment for one minute, that was a bit of a joke, but, he doesn't stay against proper decent horses over 3 miles, and SDC should have beat him more, ground or not, SDC has got plenty of form on heavy too.

Agree with you on BW Duffy, he has that `hard case bully` look about him. A real battler, he has everything needed to win a GC if chasing inexperience does not let him down.

I think what is in people`s minds regarding SDC is the way he travelled last at Chelts and he skipped around the course and when asked picked up with ease. What he does on heavy ground will be inferior to what he does on better ground. He does not seem to have any question marks about him being suited to the race. However BW looks more GC to me, but only just.

It would have to be My Tent or Yours for me.

I think is looks a very good Supreme this year, the fact last seasons Bumper Winner, who was impressive last time out is 16/1 tells you that! So I just cannot believe this horse is 13/8. Deserves to be favourite for sure, but I just cant have him this short. There is every chance he prefers it very soft imo, and the conditions on the day just might not suit him that well.

Some may say I'm daft, but I also have the fact AP rides him as a negative.

"hard case bully", I like that description

There is every chance he prefers it very soft imo -

I thought that if it was good ground in the Betfair Hurdle then Cotton Mill would would have finished quite a bit closer and MTOY would not be 13/8 right now.

MTOY's is a bit like the "cue ball" scenario in pool, you know that you are about to take a shot that's an in off, but you STILL bloody play it and the white goes in and you stand there saying, "I knew that was an in off", with MTOY's we know the supreme is littered with short priced disaster stories, we know it's a bloody accident waiting to happen, but you still bloody go ahead and back it

I will probably lump on it for a place.

Billy Big balls me.

MTOY's is a bit like the "cue ball" scenario in pool, you know that you are about to take a shot that's an in off, but you STILL bloody play it and the white goes in and you stand there saying, "I knew that was an in off"Cry, with MTOY's we know the supreme is littered with short priced disaster stories, we know it's a bloody accident waiting to happen, but you still bloody go ahead and back it

Or this year having backed it at nice odds convince and reassure yourself it will be different this year - knowing in the pit of your stomach that any other year you'd be wanting to find one to oppose him with

Un Atout is a joke price in the Supreme as well imo. Beaten very little in average races yet is half the price of Champagne Fever?! Madness I tell you.

Laying SDC because he beat one of the best 3 milers in racing.
Makes sense

sometimes you just can't see them being beat yet history tells us otherwise....

LAY all these big uns!
Oscar Whiskey
HFly
MTOY
Bobs Worth
Simonsig
Ponte Alexandre
Dynaste
Quevega
and dare I say it....... Sprinter Sacre

By laying all of them I will be shocked if this group did not give us a profit.

loved the in/off analogy duffy

Great analogy roo, I backed MTOY on here at 20s and traded out at 2.88 so I've made a nice profit. I won't be backing him in the supreme and will turn layer if he goes below 2.2 on here.

boston bob in rsa.....wouldnt win if it started now.
needs further,soft ground,always overbet,if it was residing in durham itd be double the odds...

tsk the trainer is a past master of preparing horses for the RSA and the horse is representing the best trial which is the previous seasons Albert Bartlett and it won one of the key trials for the race the Dr. P.J. Moriarty chase grade 1. You really want to be laying a horse like that at 7.8 or whatever? I can think of better 1/7.8 shots than that

SDS is my lay none of his form stacks up, he beat the non stayer and sick horse flemenstar he has beaten champion court who has been smashed by conti and LR, he took the soft options in martin pipe and jewson, on form lines has no chance with BW, those that think it will stay better than LR please get your heads out the clouds, will be fighting out 5th or 6th with TGB imho

none of his form stacks up? what about the Lexus? never jumped a twig but would have won going away with another half furlong to run, watch the replay he has only just hit full stride as they hit the line, two strides later he is in front, bounces off good ground and bounded up the hill last year and is unbeaten in two runs at the festival... and that's your lay of the Festival?

Championship Court was beaten by Conti and LR over 3 miles. CC is not effective over 3 miles.

Alleged
You could have said the same about Best Mate or War of Attrition in the run up to their Gold Cup wins.

it sure is judo  he was beat by tidal bay who prob would have been running on for a place in the GC, also beat by non stayer flem and non stayer FL, took soft option both times he,s been to the festival, the horse he beat at festival has been smashed since by 2 in the top 4 in betting, cannot beat BW  on all known form, it is a lay of biblical proportions imo

he has far more going for him than against him that's for sure unlike BW who will trying to snap all kinds of trends like only one race in the season, no prep run, less than 6 lifetime chases, did not run in either the King George or Lexus, been beaten twice when racing against SC... 3/1 you sure?

Champion Court was beaten by Conti and LR over 3 miles. CC is not effective over 3 miles.

Alleged.
Your foolish if you think Flemenstar is a non stayer,and very foolish if you lay SDC

jasey the diference being the 2 horses you mention were very very good, quite simply this horse is good no more

we will have to disagree completely

Judo

I know BW is an 8 year old but his rating after 5 chase runs is higher than that of Denman and Kauto after they had 5 chase starts. It probably means diddly squat but i found it interesting.

I just wonder how much improvement he has in him.

I wonder how he will perform at al Ange mate, no prep run is a major no no in a brutal race like this. He will need to be Arkle reborn

No horse will outstay him,to me visually he looks the real deal.

im not saying BW will win judo but on all known form SDS has no chance

Your foolish if you think Flemenstar is a non stayer

i do realise the horse was sick lto  but he cruises over 2m4f and struggles imo over 3m, this is from my visual impression.

in december he did but at 3/1 in a Gold Cup with all the negatives to overcome? not for me - it's a take it on the chin if he wins job. I really don't think he will

However if he runs up to his mark he will be hard to beat. Nothing suggests he can`t produce his top form after a break and he seems to relish what Cheltenham throws at him.

Sure he will have to buck the trends but if he ran up to 171 last year he would have won.

we will have to disagree completely

if sdc places i will eat humble pie sir

BW ^^^

oh will you shut up about form ffs

sorry but I have spent the last 3 weeks solid doping nothing analysing form and races and ratings for the Festival and I will tell you on my 'Peak Performance Potential' ratings SDC is 6lb clear of BW. I do not need a fecking form lesson thank you very much indeed.

SDC is 6lb clear of BW

This is funny because i will be backing both BW and SDC, i think they have it between them. I just favour BW but it will be split stakes on both for me.

Going down a length to SDC is not struggling at 3 mile,

Other way round Alleged. I was talking about BW

It`s not that Flemenstar does not stay 3 miles it`s just that there are better horses over 3 miles.

fwiw ive backed captain chris and SC, SC  doesnt fit your trend because they skipped the festival last year because they had a future gold cup horse on their hands, how do trends take that into consideration each horse is an individual and should be treated like so imo

Going down a length to SDC is not struggling at 3 mile,

it is if you don,t rate SDC matey

SC has beat nothing this year no battles,no digging deep,whats he got in his locker

This is a classic debate with neither side listening to the other.

The 'form' is debatable, which is why you all have different opinions! I'll throw another cat in amongst a growing flock of pigeons by saying a lot of people could look foolish if it turns out that Tidal Bay has not been running to the marks everyone assumes he has. I don't think it is easy to put a figure on what SDC or BW have achieved this year. It wouldn't be a shock if it was as much as everyone seems to think but equally it wouldn't be a shock if it is considerably less.

I think Silviniaco Conti has achieved considerably more this year, and he is the one to beat with me.

debate is good no?

Indeed it is!

Also, Flemenstar does stay three miles but he hasn't been running to the same level at the trip because they've been riding him to get it and not using his main asset (jumping quickly from fence to fence). Beating him over three miles therefore requires less than it does to beat him over two and a half.

Hmm beating small fields of grade 2/3 horses in the mud

Also, Flemenstar does stay three miles

not to my mind he doesnt he went to win the race in the lexus and was stopping rather than the others catching, your not accelerating at the end of 3 miles your staying on and he clearly wasnt doing that

Or he finds less off the bridle

Debate is great alleged

On Champion Court, if the King George was run over 3m 4f, he would have smashed Long Run. Sir Des Champs hammered him in the Jewson over 2m 4f, a distance that Champion Court seems at his best over while a distance undoubtedly on the short side for Sir Des Champs.

Between Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs for me, with SDC coming out on top with a smooth turn of fott from the back of the last

I think Silviniaco Conti has achieved considerably more this year, and he is the one to beat with me.

Not arf, he has improve 20lb this season according to his OR. All eyes seem to be on the other two because of their Cheltenham appeal. Will he he act around Cheltenham that is the only question.

it could be said they thought CC was a 3 miler and went the soft option to avoid the big horses so went jewson option its all opinions mate

It's possible that's what they thought yes, if so I think they were wrong though!

Wouldn't be the same if we all agreed

Bobs place lay for me. Either NR, PU or just tailed off. Far more negatives than positives which have all been discussed on here - prep being the most worrying. Form off a break is ok but they look like races he was entitled to win to me.

Lay the six shortest horses at the festival and you're heavy odds-on to make a profit.

Lay Pique Sous for a place in the supreme.

the horse isnt the worst animal in the world but his jumping has been very suspect and the fact he took in a flat race in Dundalk as his prep is scary, yes ground excuses have been offered but the horse just doesnt jump to the required standard and i can only see him plodding over the last as the winner has crossed the line.

Sir Des Champs - To me he isn't making the inroads i thought he would. Too short.

shhh graeme you cant critisise SDC here

I would suggest Simonsig. Yes he seems to jump well and has decent form but Arkle favs get beaten and some of them fall so odds on is crazy. At the moment you are betting a treble. He runs, gets round and beats the opposition. The same is true of Sprinter Sacre but he has been there and done it and is frightening away any opposition.

Oh yes we can. Some of these Irish horses get over hyped. He could even end up being a place lay.

that was my thinking mate

He's underhyped

All about opinions Jasey. He's second favourite for a GC off the old 'horses for courses' mantra. I wouldn't be backing him with new money. There are horses all over the shop who fit into the same category. That being said, DR will pick him over my selection, so we will just have to see how it pans out.

I can't see any that fit

I think SDC is actually the only horse that ticks every category for trends/stats.

If you look at the ratings of the horses he has beaten this year it all stacks up to top class form. Or are we saying non of those animals in Ireland are even close to their correct ratings and overrated?

I don't watch stats. I watch horse races.

Intresting

Lay MTOY have 4/6 the field any day
Lay Silviniaco Conti looked good beating nothing
Lay Oscar Whiskey on a fourtimer of failures at a cheltenham festival

Quevega. Didn't impress me last year in what I felt was a weak race. I think there are better types entered this year. As she's already very short I don't feel I'm taking much of a risk. She's tipped as being the shortest price favourite this year which is patently rubbish given they have repeatedly ducked the best horses at the Festival.

ill be laying myoy, simonsig,quevega,dynaste,bobs worth in place,and lots of them soft ground plodders running for first time on g g/s ground.

RED AND WHITE. what r u on about saying Quevega didn't impress you last year? the pace was very slow and she still won by 5 lengths with minimal if any use of the whip! the opposition is no stronger than any other year. SHE HACKS UP AGAIN!!

Quevega. Didn't impress me last year in what I felt was a weak race. I think there are better types entered this year.

What are these better types. Last years runner up is 3rd favourite this year. That leaves Une Artiste, are we to believe she is a better type? After 7 races on these shores she has reached 142. She needs to improve more than a stone.

peope all debating gold cup, forget stats there is quiet simple two questions to ask in the race.
1/is long run going to come back at his best if so he wins.
2/ two improving young horses bw and sc but are they improving enough to be champions
3/ is not a question its a fact forget the rest.

My Tent or Yours - hot race and will be seriously over bet due to visually impressive performance in the Betfred.
Would Chatterbox be joint fav for this race as he beat MTOY 4.5l despite receiving 5lbs.

banjackst laying 3 winners then, smart.

home counties, do you think mtoy was out to win that race in the mud/water at Newbury in December????

Lots of people did as he was 4/11 having opened up at 1/2. Also going in Betfair hardly good !!

I know that, the excuse Henderson put up about him not liking the ground in December was a load of rubbish, MTOY was there to qualify for a mark for the betfair hurdle. He was unfit and sent for a public school. The price wasn't down to him being fancied it was down to him having a very big reputation and having the best form in the book by a mile. Chatterbox is a good horse but he's already marked for chasing next season.

Thanks re Chatterbox as I have loved that horse since I saw him walk all over MTOY. Will still be laying MTOY for loads.
At least I'll know my fate for this years festival pretty early on !! Will Chatter be running in the Neptune?

Been some money down for him over last few days for Neptune, I'd think if he does head to the festival that's where he'll line up. He could well miss it altogether though.

Laughable if you think SDC is your lay of the festival at 9/2 compared to Dynaste at 9/4 Fly at 2/1 Oacar at 7/2 Bobs at 7/2 Tent at 7/4 Jezki at 9/2....those who think his form is rubbish are probably the same who thought Flemenstar was the second coming.wpuld also advise watching the last furlong of the Lexus more closely and seriously ask yourself if SDC wpuld not have won in an extra two furlongs even when Mullins thinks he was 10 pounds less if a horse than when winning Irish Hennessey

agree bally, many better and safer lays at the festival.
Captain Conan,The field against Pont Alexandre and Sprinter Sacre just for starters

Most overhyped horse ?
Barry Geraghty said Sire DES Champs is the most overhyped, swan said Cue Card, Nicky doesn't want to answer!

I wont actually be laying him because i'm predominantly a backer and have backed ROR eachway but HF is an appalling price imo.

Phuck it, I may lay him too on day of race.

"That leaves Une Artiste, are we to believe she is a better type? After 7 races on these shores she has reached 142. She needs to improve more than a stone."
That's if you believe Quevega's rating has been earned. She's made a name by beating poor horses in March and tired horses in April and May. Big deal.

Has Une Artiste improved at all this year??

Baz was all over Flemenstar on The Morning Line criticising Sir Des Champs and guess what happened next. Sir Des Champs fits every trend going for a Gold Cup, I'm on at 7/1 and he's gonna pisss in

Another synthetic stato passing off a strong opinion which has been formed by needing no knowledge.

This coming from the man who I believe is actually on Sir Des Champs for the Gold Cup no? Explain please...

Sir Des Champs :

Cheltenham record : 11
Last 13 have won a Grade One Chase - Ticks the box
17 out of 19 aged between 7 and 9 - he's 7
Last 12 winners finished top 3 in betting - he is currently second favourite
11 out of last 12 rated 166 or higher - he is rated 166
13 of last 14 won earlier in season - he won the Irish Hennessey

Being brought to the boil by Mullins. Staying on like no tomorrow in the Lexus and duly took care of Flemenstar given a more positive ride in the Irish Hennessey. Been brought over twice and won twice. A further 2 furlongs right up his street. Contenders? Bobs Worth - exceptional Cheltenham record but if he won this he would be the second horse ever to win with less than 6 chase starts. Only had one run this season also. Last winner to do this was Garrison Savannah in 1991, who also won the RSA I admit. Silviniaco Conti - no Cheltenham form. Never ran in double figure field. Will he be able to dominate over a stiff 3m 2? I like him but can see him being outstayed by the former two.  First Lieutenant is a Ryanair winner in the making and should run there as would claim Cue Card up the hill. He could win a Gold Cup....if SDC, Bobs Worth, Silviniaco Conti and Long Run were all non-runners

he mighty fancy SDC, he can still form an opinion that your an idiot though.

Oh right...thanks for the useful contribution there....

np

Who you on Brookside so we can have a wee look?

I fancied SDC when i backed him early last year, but he hasn't progressed as i thought he would. It's called having an open mind, and not bluntly sticking to my original opinion. Minds are like parachutes and all that.

Your other one is just back up mate and will be switched to the Ryanair within the 5 days declaration stage. You know it and I know it.

Think SDC is an appalling price too but as mentioned earlier i'd rather put a line through him and back something else, which I have.

I'd be more than happy to lay Ballycasey for the AB at 9/2