Cheltenham Festival
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Sir Desmond Champs (Gold Cup) - Hasn't beat much past couple of years , upped in class and got done by three in the Lexus and struggled to beat a non stayer over 3 miles. Not for me.
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He beat Quel Esprit by a distance m8
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Plodder jasey
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he is the most likely winner Howdi mate, no negatives to overcome at all and set to improve bundles on festival going
all about opinions innit Hurricane Fly is my NAP lay, trying to regain lost titles is one of the toughest assignments at the Festival and drying ground is all against him |
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evening Judorick I still recall what I said to someone 2 years ago when Bobs worth wonm the AB...
'he'll win the Gold Cup onme day'....... |
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agree with you on HFly been a lay I think he's a big one but i hope he wins
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Howdi
You are heading for the poor house,laying a speed and stamina beast like SDC.. Jezki is mine,soft ground,small field bully |
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I just went through all the trends for the Gold Cup again this weekend and SDC is the only one of the market leaders that does not have at least one major trend too overcome. Quito De La Roque also hits all the trends but was tailed off in the Lexus and is 66/1. I will post all my stuff nearer the meeting. I don't like backing horses with 2 or more strong negatives and I don't like laying horses with none (other than visual impressions and stuff like that which is qualitative). Long Run hits all the trends but is trying the regain the title thing which is a major neg for me.
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I'll say it again Desmond is an overated beast and Bob will eat him im placing laying Sir Desmond
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Howdi
My first ante post was Bobs Worth Before he won Hennessey,but i always knew i would have to back SDC,and now he's my main bet. |
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wish u well pal u going to the festival?
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good job you can laugh about it! try laying it when it hits about 2 in running, that might be a value lay
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Hurricane Fly.
Ran to form last year, the clock proves it and his age seems to be forgotten. Can only win if it is very soft ground. Might even place lay it if their are enough decent runners. |
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Always book the week off,but just go on the thursday.
You? |
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Sprinter sacre.
He looks a dodgy jumper and I fancy Sanctuaire to put him firmly in his place. |
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^Lol^
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I hope Sanctuaire turns up so i can place lay him again |
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Graham Cunningham's in the house
Go all week mate used to go with someone who has since lost interest so go with a new crowd looking forward to oit |
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Quevega because:
a) her price b) she is getting older c) her price is based on assumption she will be as good as ever despite any evidence on the track this season to support that assumption d) it looks like being a stronger renewal this year as long as the connections of other leading contenders have the courage of their convictions and take her on. Of course I could have written all of the above last year and she could hose up as per but it would not cost me a lot to be wrong. |
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Dynaste if he runs in the RSA. He has the best form in the race but i personally don't think he would stay the trip and at least one horse would outstay him up the hill
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hello swagger mate
agree but I think we can do better than just laying Dynaste |
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RSA seems to be same every year, turns into a slog, horses getting tired and an out and stayer wins.
Made for Boston Bob imo but I think the fav is a very good horse. |
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dont agree with RH, she is so much better than her rivals. I think she is in a good era where the other females are not very good.
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MTOY at 11/8 or shorter is a lay. Being the best in the race doesn't mean you'll win. He'll be over bet and his odds don't reflect his chances and as such is a lay.
Rock on Ruby is another who I'd lay at 5/1 e/w and shorter, Fly and Zark will be different horses to the ones he beat last year and he himself looks a shadow of the horse who romped up the hill. 3l defeat of Countrywide flame and a "blow up" in Bula are not the kind of form a Champion Hurdle winner has that season. Dynaste at 2/1 and lower in RSA, slow early pace in Felham never tested his stamina. 3m round Kempton is like 2m5f round Chelts in a festival race. Stamina has never been tested this season and he failed to stay in a true run world hurdle last year. All the stats to break in this too. Oscar Whisky at 5/4 in running, he'll trade short and I'm not sure he'll get home the pace they go in the World Hurdle. |
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Alright Judge, hope you are well pal. I'm just off to bed - chat tomorrow
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nighty nite bruv
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agree Oscar whiskey in running could he worth looking at
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Dynasty (RSA) got feltham chase trend to overcome
The fly- couldn't win imo a weaker race last year and has 5 length to find on ror Mtoy supremes- bridal horse, won't win supremes on bridal. Price to short.. If does win il still have 26 races to recoup! |
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Silvianio conti- no significant course form to win a gold cup! All about Cheltenham festival form for me in the championship races
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SDC looks an OBVIOUS winner given trends. That point will be hammered left right centre by just about every man and his dog! Are you guys backing him strictly on his overall profile or because you think he has more in hand then SC, LR and BW?
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the thing is with SDC he won 2 of the weakest races at the festival, he may come alight with the better ground but i expected much more from him this season.
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That;'s my gut instinct too IS. Simply not confident on any. Seems to me trends looks to be the default way of trying to find the winner. Right now, got BW and Zark in EW double from last December. If Zark can play his part even for place money I'll be content to let the race unfold without getting further involved.
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he has had a perfect prep, set to explode up that hill again on better ground, his Jewson win was one of the fastest performances of the 2012 festival earned comment 'quickened smartly, easily', misses no trend, no negatives and maximum stakes for me
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Cheers. Just that "but" that's permeating my thoughts. After 5 months of thinking about this, perhaps another 2 weeks will do the trick :D
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DYNASTE
2 BIG STATS to overcome Last 18 feltham winners failed if it wins - only horse to do it WITHOUT a run in the calendar year for 49 years !!!!!!!!!! |
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also had 2 seasons over hurdles zealot and they have all got beat in this race
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Sir Des Champ is a massive improver over a trip on better ground. Don`t agree with you Howdie. 166 and will improve with conditions to suit.
Hurricane Fly is my lay of the festival - I always compare the Champion Hurdle to the 800 metres Olympic final. You need everything to fall into place unless you are different class to your opposition. Rattling off better ground i don`t think HF is in his comfort zone. You can make excuses for last year but it`s a tough race to win. |
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another big negative
 Boston Bob looks good to me . Finished well last year chasing brindisi |
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Also 2 worst career runs have come in spring on good ground. He's also French Bred, who are 1/10 in RSA
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indeed I am on BB already 8.4
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