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Im saying both clearly were last year yes otherwise they wouldnt finish 1st and 2nd in that race.
Just out of interest on the consistent at Cheltenham front still never been unplaced, pretty consistent i would say!!!! |
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So you are saying he was beaten by better horses last year? or that he under performed?
Bearing in mind that The Giant Bolster was given a rating of 164. What does this say about the run of Long Run last year? |
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especially as the 2011 rating was around 180?
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Yes Jud, CVByrne is suggesting the horse ran over a stone below it`s best because the pace slackened off mid race. Where i am saying it was something more psychological in Long Runs mind.
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Robbo I'd save your breath. You can't rationalise with this level of idiocy. Same people said the same things about Kauto Star in 2009. They get a simplistic notion and stick by it despite an inability to convince anyone else as the idea is so idiotic to begin with.
Robbo if you read further down you'll see my explanation for Long Runs poor run last year. Which is his first poor run since the Paddy Power in 2010. |
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there is also a strong possibility that the 2011 race was over rated, Kauto and Denman both 11 yo and no 10 year old has won for as long as I can remember; course records are more to do with track conditions than anything so I would ignore that especially as the Topspeed rating was only 157 which is pretty slow for championship races
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Same people said the same things about Kauto Star in 2009
Nope, i never said this about Kauto. More twisted logic/facts from the Byrne. |
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Yes Jud i think if we point out Long Run beat What a Friend by 11 lengths it adds more sensibility to the form.
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funny how the handicapper rated the three runs up to and including the GC win 180, 180 and 181 but his last 3 runs no higher than 172
I actually think the rating has been fairly consistently around 170-172 all along |
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Yes i don`t think Long Run was any better than 172 at Cheltenham in 2011. At Kempton close to 180.
Last year about 162. So he regressed 10lb in my book at Cheltenham last year. I don`t expect to see anything better this year. That`s why i think he is a place lay. |
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i still think its too early to make any hard and fast judgements about how i would play this race, as i think it is very dependent upon the state of the ground on the day.
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Yes ADR..2 mins before the off.
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think i will wait till they have jumped the last before i nail my colours to the mast
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Going back to the headline post, don't forget that ante post bets include the important possibility of non runner due to a change of mind by connections or injury. At this stage, 15 days before the race I would put that at 1/8 approx. That price is the same for win and place so the rest of your double (running and winning/placed) is about 2.73 and 1.69 respectively. You also have the chance of falling which is the same win or place.
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winning 1 G.C and beaten only 3L
in another,I wouldn't be place laying him,but that's just my own view. GL. |
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Thanks sageform. I'll go and do some more sums, but I see your point.
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Fair enough Penzance, but it`s not the fact he came 3rd last year, it`s more to do with the ability of the horses that beat him.
The Giant Bolster is not expected to place this year. So why should Long Run. |
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Sageform
I've done the sums and your theory stacks up perfectly. The implied priced against MYTOY running is 1.41 1.957 x 1.41 = 2.76 (current price) 1.319 x 1.41 = 1.86 (current place price) 1.957 at a third the odds a place = 1.319 So the question is: is he 2/5 to run? You reckoned about 1/8. In which case we should be having the 1.86. |
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Long Run is a fantastic each way bet, I don't expect to see him win but also can't see him out of the first 3. His jumping at Haydock was horrific and the dentist is also a huge negative...but that engine will get him placed
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^^^That engine got beat by The Giant Bolster last year. What price TGB to get placed?
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