Cheltenham Festival
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This will be a trends based evaluation of each race in the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. I have been spending too much time updating my spreadsheet with all the trends for each race, and evaluating each horse against those trends, while putting my own slant on the relative importance of those trends. Hopefully, the time and effort will pay off with a few decent winners.
Just like to mention at the outset that I'm indebted to Racecaller, who is the main source of the trends I use in this analysis.
I will kick off with the highlight of day one, the Champion Hurdle. All the various trends have been weighted according to their perceived 'importance', to give the most likely winner.
Key Trends
Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
Run 2 to 5 times this season
2nd season hurdler that finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at 2012 Festival or
3rd or 4th season hurdler
Finished in first 4 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races with 10+ runners
Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
Finished in first 3 in 2012 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2012 Festival
Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle
British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth, International and/or Christmas Hurdle
Ran in Kingwell, Contenders or Red Mills Trial Hurdle last time
Applying the key trends to the race gives a ranking as follows:
Hurricane Fly 81%
Rock On Ruby 80%
Countrywide Flame 72%
Overturn 68%
Binocular 62%
Thousand Stars 62%
Cinders And Ashes 58%
Oscar Whisky 55%
Peddlers Cross 52%
Zaidpour 52%
Zarkandar 52%
Grandouet 40%
Raya Star 39%
Rebel Fitz 36%
Balder Succes 36%
Cotton Mill 30%
Cause Of Causes 29%
Khyber Kim 27%
Grumeti 26%
Steps To Freedom 23%
Ransom Note 22%
Flying Cross 7%
There are likely to be a few non-runners out of the above list e.g. Grumeti, Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle) & Overturn (Arkle), but there will still be a high class field going into battle.
Hurricane Fly narrowly heads the list on trends and he is a very consistent horse who invariably seems to run to a RPR of around 170. Crucially, this is higher than many in the field have ever achieved, and therefore either he has to underperform (as he arguably did last year) or others have to find improvement (and some a significant amount of improvement).
Close 2nd on trends is the defending champion Rock On Ruby, who has perhaps not been given the credit he deserves for last year's win. Warmed up for this with victory at Doncster beating Countrywide Flame, having finished a decent 3rd behind a race fit Zarkandar and Grandouet in the International Hurdle. Could be one that reserves his best for the BIG day. Doesn't possess a great turn of foot, but will wind it up, and could prove hard to pass if given a lead.
Binocular is one that has the potential to run to a very high rating, but I'm worried about his consistency recently. Readily brushed aside by Hurricane Fly last time out, albeit under a tender ride from McCoy, he's subject of postive reports from Seven Barrows, and it wouldn't be a great surprise to see him thereabouts at the business end.
Form figures of 111 this season for Zarkandar has to be respected but the fact remains is that he never really threatens to run to the kind of mark achieved by the likes of Hurricane Fly. However, he is a battler, stays well, has good course form, and will be staying on probably after being outpaced between the final two obstacles.
Grandouet is a horse I like very much, and I would have been very keen on him had he come out after the International Hurdle and put in an impressive performance. A supremely good traveller in his races, I'm sure he has the ability to go very close with the right preparation. However, the lack of race fitness / recent run is a concern, and makes me think he might just be found wanting in the finish.
There aren't many others that interest me. Cinders and Ashes doesn't seem to have progressed. Countrywide Flame looks exposed enough. The admirably consistent Oscar Whisky seems to fall between two stools, one being two miles and the other 3 miles, and will probably be re-routed.
Nothing else should be capable of troubling the judge.
On balance (and despite being burned last year), I fancy Hurricane Fly to reclaim his crown, and reaffirm his status as Champion Hurdler.
Selection: Hurricane Fly
Just like to mention at the outset that I'm indebted to Racecaller, who is the main source of the trends I use in this analysis.
I will kick off with the highlight of day one, the Champion Hurdle. All the various trends have been weighted according to their perceived 'importance', to give the most likely winner.
Key Trends
Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
Run 2 to 5 times this season
2nd season hurdler that finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at 2012 Festival or
3rd or 4th season hurdler
Finished in first 4 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races with 10+ runners
Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
Finished in first 3 in 2012 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2012 Festival
Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle
British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth, International and/or Christmas Hurdle
Ran in Kingwell, Contenders or Red Mills Trial Hurdle last time
Applying the key trends to the race gives a ranking as follows:
Hurricane Fly 81%
Rock On Ruby 80%
Countrywide Flame 72%
Overturn 68%
Binocular 62%
Thousand Stars 62%
Cinders And Ashes 58%
Oscar Whisky 55%
Peddlers Cross 52%
Zaidpour 52%
Zarkandar 52%
Grandouet 40%
Raya Star 39%
Rebel Fitz 36%
Balder Succes 36%
Cotton Mill 30%
Cause Of Causes 29%
Khyber Kim 27%
Grumeti 26%
Steps To Freedom 23%
Ransom Note 22%
Flying Cross 7%
There are likely to be a few non-runners out of the above list e.g. Grumeti, Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle) & Overturn (Arkle), but there will still be a high class field going into battle.
Hurricane Fly narrowly heads the list on trends and he is a very consistent horse who invariably seems to run to a RPR of around 170. Crucially, this is higher than many in the field have ever achieved, and therefore either he has to underperform (as he arguably did last year) or others have to find improvement (and some a significant amount of improvement).
Close 2nd on trends is the defending champion Rock On Ruby, who has perhaps not been given the credit he deserves for last year's win. Warmed up for this with victory at Doncster beating Countrywide Flame, having finished a decent 3rd behind a race fit Zarkandar and Grandouet in the International Hurdle. Could be one that reserves his best for the BIG day. Doesn't possess a great turn of foot, but will wind it up, and could prove hard to pass if given a lead.
Binocular is one that has the potential to run to a very high rating, but I'm worried about his consistency recently. Readily brushed aside by Hurricane Fly last time out, albeit under a tender ride from McCoy, he's subject of postive reports from Seven Barrows, and it wouldn't be a great surprise to see him thereabouts at the business end.
Form figures of 111 this season for Zarkandar has to be respected but the fact remains is that he never really threatens to run to the kind of mark achieved by the likes of Hurricane Fly. However, he is a battler, stays well, has good course form, and will be staying on probably after being outpaced between the final two obstacles.
Grandouet is a horse I like very much, and I would have been very keen on him had he come out after the International Hurdle and put in an impressive performance. A supremely good traveller in his races, I'm sure he has the ability to go very close with the right preparation. However, the lack of race fitness / recent run is a concern, and makes me think he might just be found wanting in the finish.
There aren't many others that interest me. Cinders and Ashes doesn't seem to have progressed. Countrywide Flame looks exposed enough. The admirably consistent Oscar Whisky seems to fall between two stools, one being two miles and the other 3 miles, and will probably be re-routed.
Nothing else should be capable of troubling the judge.
On balance (and despite being burned last year), I fancy Hurricane Fly to reclaim his crown, and reaffirm his status as Champion Hurdler.
Selection: Hurricane Fly
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tomdeane 25 Feb 13 19:19
I don't intend this to be a snipe in any way but surely your trends analysis makes Rock On Ruby the bet, seeing as there is only 1% between him and the Fly and he is almost three times the price?
tomdeane - I take your point, and in reality my trends analysis is being used to whittle down the field to a small number of candidates who (according to the trends) are most likely winners. At Cheltenham, I won't be blindly backing the top rated every time, but for simplicity sake, the top rated will be the selection for this thread. Hopefully, others may find the ranking helpful in formulating a shortlist on which to concentrate their form study / analysis. If I have other bets, I will try and make note of them on each race thread. But in this case, I really believe that if HF runs to his best form, then that will be good enough to take care of them.
I don't intend this to be a snipe in any way but surely your trends analysis makes Rock On Ruby the bet, seeing as there is only 1% between him and the Fly and he is almost three times the price?
tomdeane - I take your point, and in reality my trends analysis is being used to whittle down the field to a small number of candidates who (according to the trends) are most likely winners. At Cheltenham, I won't be blindly backing the top rated every time, but for simplicity sake, the top rated will be the selection for this thread. Hopefully, others may find the ranking helpful in formulating a shortlist on which to concentrate their form study / analysis. If I have other bets, I will try and make note of them on each race thread. But in this case, I really believe that if HF runs to his best form, then that will be good enough to take care of them.
Cheers JOCI... Hope these churn out some nice winners for you
Hi JOCI mate, it will be interesting to compare our analysis and selections, as per last year, as I am using much the same data as you but am interpreting it in a different way. I have completed the Supreme, Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup so far and am working on the RSA. I will post a similar thread once I have got a bit more done.
All the best with yours
All the best with yours
Cheers, good to get a few different opinions to mull over.
Deplasterer 25 Feb 13 12:52
Paul Jones's book on stats & trends for all the races for the past 10years or so is a must have for everyone & reasonably priced too.
One stat & trend that sticks out at present is that Bobsworth has all the stats to overcome in order to win the gold cup. step forward Sir Des Champs
Paul Jones's book on stats & trends for all the races for the past 10years or so is a must have for everyone & reasonably priced too.
One stat & trend that sticks out at present is that Bobsworth has all the stats to overcome in order to win the gold cup. step forward Sir Des Champs
I'm using the same book plus other stuff and I'm pretty sure I will draw different conclusions to JOCI.
Hurricane Fly to me is the biggest lay - only 1 horse has ever regained the crown and it is too old at 9 which is another strong stat - I strongly fancy Rock On Ruby but HC as a lay bet is a must - good luck
i like the % analysis with every horse used by OP because there are things id like to factor in and out for my own benefit. for instance in this case a prep run so grandouet and C&A would score lower for example
I had another look at the Champion Hurdle, and when reviewing my previous assessment discovered I had failed to give credit to those horses that had run in the International Hurdle, namely Rock On Ruby, Zarkandar and Grandouet. When factoring this into the analysis, it just gives Rock On Ruby the edge over Hurricane Fly. The pair are a dcent margin ahead of the rest of the field.
Rock On Ruby 80%
Hurricane Fly 79%
Countrywide Flame 70%
Overturn 66%
Binocular 60%
Thousand Stars 60%
Cinders And Ashes 57%
Oscar Whisky 54%
Zarkandar 53%
Peddlers Cross 51%
Zaidpour 51%
Grandouet 42%
Raya Star 38%
Rebel Fitz 36%
Balder Succes 35%
Cotton Mill 29%
Cause Of Causes 29%
Khyber Kim 26%
Grumeti 26%
Steps To Freedom 22%
Ransom Note 22%
Flying Cross 7%
Hurricane Fly still the selection, but acknowledge it could be a tough ask in that he doesn't have the ideal age profile. I'm going on the fact that I still believe he's the best horse in the race, consistently runs the high ratings, definitely had an off day last season (and arguably didn't get the best of rides that day), and could well be able to bounce back and reclaim his crown.
Rock On Ruby 80%
Hurricane Fly 79%
Countrywide Flame 70%
Overturn 66%
Binocular 60%
Thousand Stars 60%
Cinders And Ashes 57%
Oscar Whisky 54%
Zarkandar 53%
Peddlers Cross 51%
Zaidpour 51%
Grandouet 42%
Raya Star 38%
Rebel Fitz 36%
Balder Succes 35%
Cotton Mill 29%
Cause Of Causes 29%
Khyber Kim 26%
Grumeti 26%
Steps To Freedom 22%
Ransom Note 22%
Flying Cross 7%
Hurricane Fly still the selection, but acknowledge it could be a tough ask in that he doesn't have the ideal age profile. I'm going on the fact that I still believe he's the best horse in the race, consistently runs the high ratings, definitely had an off day last season (and arguably didn't get the best of rides that day), and could well be able to bounce back and reclaim his crown.
Ok... now I'm going to have a (good-natured) snipe...
You've recalculated the figures after realising you missed something from the original. Rock On Ruby is now the highest-rated on your scale, is three times the price of Hurricane Fly, but you've sided with the latter because you think he can outrun last year's performance.
Now many will know I am not a trends man really but to me, it is even more silly to go to all this work, come up with a very logical-sounding way of ranking horses, and then produce the figures, only to go with your gut instinct at the end of it all. I totally understand that the point of these analyses is to narrow down the list of potential winners, and as you say, Rock On Ruby and Hurricane Fly are a good way clear on your scale so one of these has to be the bet. I just cannot understand your logic in choosing the jolly here!
You've recalculated the figures after realising you missed something from the original. Rock On Ruby is now the highest-rated on your scale, is three times the price of Hurricane Fly, but you've sided with the latter because you think he can outrun last year's performance.
Now many will know I am not a trends man really but to me, it is even more silly to go to all this work, come up with a very logical-sounding way of ranking horses, and then produce the figures, only to go with your gut instinct at the end of it all. I totally understand that the point of these analyses is to narrow down the list of potential winners, and as you say, Rock On Ruby and Hurricane Fly are a good way clear on your scale so one of these has to be the bet. I just cannot understand your logic in choosing the jolly here!
Understand, and I'd try to explain earlier that I'm not blindly following the trends in reality. If people wish to follow the top rated selections here, then good luck to them, and I certainly wouldn't put anyone off. However, the top rated horse won't win every race at Cheltenham, and sometimes I've been better served by trusting my eye. A classic example is when I selected Sky's The Limit to win the Coral Cup several years ago. Top weights just never won the Coral Cup, but based on what I'd seen at the after racing Leopardstown gallops, I was convinced he had an excellent chance. Won like a good 'un. Key trend blasted out of sight.
Another reason, not been overly impressed with ROR this season. Beaten in International, and would likely have been beaten by the ill fated Darlan last time out. Sometimes you just don't warm to certain horses, and can't find your way to back them, despite what the trends / stats say.
Another reason, not been overly impressed with ROR this season. Beaten in International, and would likely have been beaten by the ill fated Darlan last time out. Sometimes you just don't warm to certain horses, and can't find your way to back them, despite what the trends / stats say.
and can't find your way to back them, despite what the trends / stats say.
hit the nail on the head joci
hit the nail on the head joci
JOCI mate, horses beaten in the International have a very good record in the Champion. Better than winners of the International in fact and I've backed him (Zarkandar) 
Yep, I just hadn't included the stat re the International in my spreadsheet, and when added it in, increased RORs position relative to HF.
Zarkandar misses out on a number of trends for me.
Zarkandar misses out on a number of trends for me.
Fair enough and good luck to you.
Just think Rock On Ruby has to be the bet based on a value call on your analysis. I do agree with you in the sense that I haven't warmed to him this season, but the trends do mark him out as a big player and the price differential must be worth taking the risk I'd have thought...
Also, not sure what stage you're at with your analyses, but I'm guessing there won't be many cases where you have two horses so far ahead of the rest (relatively speaking), so again, just seems like you're putting in so much hard work to ultimately go with your gut from a shortlist of a few anyway.
Best of luck for a profitable week!
Just think Rock On Ruby has to be the bet based on a value call on your analysis. I do agree with you in the sense that I haven't warmed to him this season, but the trends do mark him out as a big player and the price differential must be worth taking the risk I'd have thought...
Also, not sure what stage you're at with your analyses, but I'm guessing there won't be many cases where you have two horses so far ahead of the rest (relatively speaking), so again, just seems like you're putting in so much hard work to ultimately go with your gut from a shortlist of a few anyway.
Best of luck for a profitable week!
I haven't had a bet in the race yet, and might even have wager on both closer to the time, if I get a pang of guilt about not backing a top rated one. 
I just know I'd hate to do all this work and then miss a top-rated 6-1 winner having backed the 13-8 fav!
It is late, but I sense convergance! Hands up if you don't expect to win a penny this week, likewise if your biggest winner will happily be a distant third...
I 'll get me
I 'll get me
if I don't win a wheelbarrow full I won't be pleased 
If I can cover the cost of my tickets (not cheap up in the grandstand seats), accommodation (very reasonable in Bishops Cleeve) and food / booze (a decent amount), then it's mission accomplished for me.
Joci
Good luck with your workings , I like the fact that although you are incorporating trends into your thinking, you aren't letting them rule you and are ultimately letting your visual impression of what you've seen through the season have a say in your conclusion, I accept that it must be a hard thing to marry the two up, I look forward to your GC offering, especially if you fancy BW because that's going to be a hard one to work the trends around, for the record I think he's the real deal, trends or no trends, he hasn't raced for a long time, but the trends in this respect are one dimensional, black and white, there's no consideration that in this case, the negative trend is actually , for him, a positive trend as he's so good fresh, that's my theory anyway on why they can be on occasions less than helpful.
Good luck with your workings , I like the fact that although you are incorporating trends into your thinking, you aren't letting them rule you and are ultimately letting your visual impression of what you've seen through the season have a say in your conclusion, I accept that it must be a hard thing to marry the two up, I look forward to your GC offering, especially if you fancy BW because that's going to be a hard one to work the trends around, for the record I think he's the real deal, trends or no trends, he hasn't raced for a long time, but the trends in this respect are one dimensional, black and white, there's no consideration that in this case, the negative trend is actually , for him, a positive trend as he's so good fresh, that's my theory anyway on why they can be on occasions less than helpful.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Key Trends
34 of 38 winners were aged 5 or 6
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days (12/13 run last 52 days)
8 of 10 winners (14/16) won last time out (2 exceptions placed)
8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out
10 of 10 (11/12) winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts
9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level)
2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)
11 of the last 12 winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 132
6 of the last 8 winners going off 10/1 or bigger.
Applying these trends to the field (weigted), gives the following ranking:
Champagne Fever 100%
Annie Power 94%
Melodic Rendezvous 91%
My Tent Or Yours 86%
Un Atout 86%
Puffin Billy 84%
The New One 84%
Mozoltov 84%
Jezki 83%
Don Cossack 80%
Rule The World 76%
Chatterbox 75%
Pique Sous 75%
Rock Critic 74%
Waaheb 72%
Whispering Gallery 66%
River Maigue 65%
Bright New Dawn 62%
Minsk 62%
Dodging Bullets 61%
Minella Definitely 57%
Swnymor 56%
Ally Cascade 56%
Moscow Mannon 56%
Ifandbutwhynot 56%
Fatcatinthehat 55%
Court Minstrel 53%
I Shot The Sheriff 47%
Lordofthehouse 47%
Fair Trade 46%
New Year´s Eve 46%
Royal Guardsman 46%
Zuider Zee 45%
Tsar Des Bieffes 37%
Cause Of Causes 37%
King Of Dudes 37%
Sail By The Sea 37%
Tanerko Emery 36%
Cheltenian 36%
Black Spirit 35%
Morning Royalty 35%
Ransom Note 35%
Valdez 35%
Warden Hill 35%
Flaxen Flare 28%
Royal St Trop 28%
Flying Cross 26%
Stand To Reason 26%
Fire King 17%
Looking On 17%
Ostentation 17%
Sizing Solution 17%
Shortlist
Champagne Fever 100%
Annie Power 94%
Melodic Rendezvous 91%
My Tent Or Yours 86%
Un Atout 86%
Of the top 5 above, Champagne Fever ticks all the boxes. Whilst having been beaten a couple of times this season, he showed improved form last time out to win, has proven that he travels and has won at the festival before, and there are no doubts that he has the staying power to be finishing strongly. Might even improve for better going. I like his chances and have backed him at 23s. Slight doubt about whether he will actually run over one of the longer trips though. So he may not be my only bet.
My Tent Or Yours has strong claims after winning the old Tote Gold Trophy rather comfortably. I like that race as a pointer to the Festival, as it's often a large field, strongly run event, and the form often stands up well (not unlike some of the big Irish handicaps such as the Pearse Hurdle / MCR Hurdle or whatever it might be called nowadays.
Annie Power has done nothing wrong, and can almost be guaranteed to run a big race and would be getting a healthy weight allowance from the others, and would definitely be respected. Like MTOY, just unproven at the highest level (grade 1) but open to improvement. As I type 150s on here, so most likely a non-runner.
Melodic Rendezvous has run some good races, keeps pulling it out, and has finished strongly up the stiff Sandown hill which augurs well for Cheltenham. The only negative I have is age (7).
Un Atout falls into the 'could be anything' bracket. Two good wins in Ireland, highly regarded, and plenty of potential. Only marked deown slightly by lack of grade 1 form. Could well be my second bet in the race, cloiser to the time.
Selection: Champagne Fever @ 23
Key Trends
34 of 38 winners were aged 5 or 6
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days (12/13 run last 52 days)
8 of 10 winners (14/16) won last time out (2 exceptions placed)
8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out
10 of 10 (11/12) winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts
9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level)
2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)
11 of the last 12 winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 132
6 of the last 8 winners going off 10/1 or bigger.
Applying these trends to the field (weigted), gives the following ranking:
Champagne Fever 100%
Annie Power 94%
Melodic Rendezvous 91%
My Tent Or Yours 86%
Un Atout 86%
Puffin Billy 84%
The New One 84%
Mozoltov 84%
Jezki 83%
Don Cossack 80%
Rule The World 76%
Chatterbox 75%
Pique Sous 75%
Rock Critic 74%
Waaheb 72%
Whispering Gallery 66%
River Maigue 65%
Bright New Dawn 62%
Minsk 62%
Dodging Bullets 61%
Minella Definitely 57%
Swnymor 56%
Ally Cascade 56%
Moscow Mannon 56%
Ifandbutwhynot 56%
Fatcatinthehat 55%
Court Minstrel 53%
I Shot The Sheriff 47%
Lordofthehouse 47%
Fair Trade 46%
New Year´s Eve 46%
Royal Guardsman 46%
Zuider Zee 45%
Tsar Des Bieffes 37%
Cause Of Causes 37%
King Of Dudes 37%
Sail By The Sea 37%
Tanerko Emery 36%
Cheltenian 36%
Black Spirit 35%
Morning Royalty 35%
Ransom Note 35%
Valdez 35%
Warden Hill 35%
Flaxen Flare 28%
Royal St Trop 28%
Flying Cross 26%
Stand To Reason 26%
Fire King 17%
Looking On 17%
Ostentation 17%
Sizing Solution 17%
Shortlist
Champagne Fever 100%
Annie Power 94%
Melodic Rendezvous 91%
My Tent Or Yours 86%
Un Atout 86%
Of the top 5 above, Champagne Fever ticks all the boxes. Whilst having been beaten a couple of times this season, he showed improved form last time out to win, has proven that he travels and has won at the festival before, and there are no doubts that he has the staying power to be finishing strongly. Might even improve for better going. I like his chances and have backed him at 23s. Slight doubt about whether he will actually run over one of the longer trips though. So he may not be my only bet.
My Tent Or Yours has strong claims after winning the old Tote Gold Trophy rather comfortably. I like that race as a pointer to the Festival, as it's often a large field, strongly run event, and the form often stands up well (not unlike some of the big Irish handicaps such as the Pearse Hurdle / MCR Hurdle or whatever it might be called nowadays.
Annie Power has done nothing wrong, and can almost be guaranteed to run a big race and would be getting a healthy weight allowance from the others, and would definitely be respected. Like MTOY, just unproven at the highest level (grade 1) but open to improvement. As I type 150s on here, so most likely a non-runner.
Melodic Rendezvous has run some good races, keeps pulling it out, and has finished strongly up the stiff Sandown hill which augurs well for Cheltenham. The only negative I have is age (7).
Un Atout falls into the 'could be anything' bracket. Two good wins in Ireland, highly regarded, and plenty of potential. Only marked deown slightly by lack of grade 1 form. Could well be my second bet in the race, cloiser to the time.
Selection: Champagne Fever @ 23
good write up joci...
just a quick question could you interpret your trend slightly differently in regards dodging bullets
for example he was beaten by grumeti first time last year then 4th in the triumph (lane 8)and his other run he stumbled and nearly fell...
if we discount that baring mind he was just a mere 4 year old then... and just took this year literally what rating would you give many thanks just interested to know
just a quick question could you interpret your trend slightly differently in regards dodging bullets
for example he was beaten by grumeti first time last year then 4th in the triumph (lane 8)and his other run he stumbled and nearly fell...
if we discount that baring mind he was just a mere 4 year old then... and just took this year literally what rating would you give many thanks just interested to know
If only rating Dodging Bullets on his 3 races this season (ignorong last season's form) would increase his score from 61% to 81%. He would still fall foul of not having had a recent enough prep race, and also the fact that he failed to win last time out.
ok thanks joci appreciate it... like to look at things from a slightly different perspective...he may fall short but he was running in open company last time however and is trained by the top trainer and ridden by the top jockey...
arcalis ran in the christmas hurdle and placed but did prep i suppose but wasn't trained by nicholls... anyway really good read and have had a little on champagne myself as over priced for this he should set it up nicely for the free going bullet who needs pace to run at and can swoop late and fast in the last 100 yards to coup the money
arcalis ran in the christmas hurdle and placed but did prep i suppose but wasn't trained by nicholls... anyway really good read and have had a little on champagne myself as over priced for this he should set it up nicely for the free going bullet who needs pace to run at and can swoop late and fast in the last 100 yards to coup the money
Arkle
Key Trends
20 of 22 winners aged less than 8
8 of 10 winners posted their best RPR over fences on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 153+ in last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners (12/13) were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 exceptions had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph, 3rd Supreme & 4th in Neptune. Other was having first course start)
9 of 10 winners had final prep race within 52 days of the Festival
10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 13 hurdles races (7 contested a novice hurdle the previous season)
10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
Based on the above trends (weighted), here is the ranking of the latest field:
Captain Conan 87%
Simonsig 85%
Benefficient 74%
Overturn 73%
Arvika Ligeonniere 68%
Twinlight 67%
Oscars Well 62%
Tap Night 61%
Terminal 60%
Module 52%
Majala 52%
Aupcharlie 46%
Rupert Lamb 46%
Marito 45%
Argocat 44%
His Excellency 43%
Fago 31%
Baily Green 30%
Viva Colonia 30%
Beeverstown 23%
Toostrong 14%
Captain Conan hits most of the trends, but there is a very good chance he will be missing this race, to perhaps run in the Jewson. By default, this leaves Simonsig as the highest rated of the likely runners, and he is the confident selection.
Will be a very interesting race, with Overturn probably setting off in front with his customary trailblazing tactics, and Simonsig on a stalking mission. The big question is whether he will have enough gas, and fight to take it up from Overturn at the business end. My money says yes. The reason for Simonsig falling behind Captain Conan in the trends was his relative inexperience over fences. More than 2 outings is ideal. Looking forward to him putting in a great performance, and rivalling Sprinter Sacre for top honours next season.
Selection: Simonsig
Key Trends
20 of 22 winners aged less than 8
8 of 10 winners posted their best RPR over fences on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 153+ in last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners (12/13) were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 exceptions had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph, 3rd Supreme & 4th in Neptune. Other was having first course start)
9 of 10 winners had final prep race within 52 days of the Festival
10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 13 hurdles races (7 contested a novice hurdle the previous season)
10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
Based on the above trends (weighted), here is the ranking of the latest field:
Captain Conan 87%
Simonsig 85%
Benefficient 74%
Overturn 73%
Arvika Ligeonniere 68%
Twinlight 67%
Oscars Well 62%
Tap Night 61%
Terminal 60%
Module 52%
Majala 52%
Aupcharlie 46%
Rupert Lamb 46%
Marito 45%
Argocat 44%
His Excellency 43%
Fago 31%
Baily Green 30%
Viva Colonia 30%
Beeverstown 23%
Toostrong 14%
Captain Conan hits most of the trends, but there is a very good chance he will be missing this race, to perhaps run in the Jewson. By default, this leaves Simonsig as the highest rated of the likely runners, and he is the confident selection.
Will be a very interesting race, with Overturn probably setting off in front with his customary trailblazing tactics, and Simonsig on a stalking mission. The big question is whether he will have enough gas, and fight to take it up from Overturn at the business end. My money says yes. The reason for Simonsig falling behind Captain Conan in the trends was his relative inexperience over fences. More than 2 outings is ideal. Looking forward to him putting in a great performance, and rivalling Sprinter Sacre for top honours next season.
Selection: Simonsig
Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country)
The race that tends to ploarize opinion. Some love it, and thinks it brings somethig new to the Festival. Others dislike it and think it has no place at the mecca of jumps racing. Wherever your views lie, here's what the trends throw out in terms of a ranking:
In past 6 years 5 of the 6 winners were aged 8 to 10 and 8 of the last 11 horses aged 11+ to make the frame had won or placed in the race before.
5 of 8 winners won on their last run over fences
6 of 8 winners had run in past 40 days (2 exceptions had last run in cross country race at Cheltenham December meeting)
7 of 8 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
8 of 8 winners had run at least 11 times over fences
7 of 8 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases
7 of 8 winners had won over 3M+ (exception had won over 2M 6F & been placed in 3 of 4 runs over CD)
5 of 8 winners had won or placed over this CD (1 exception was having first start and other 2 failed to complete on only run on the Cross Country course)
5 of 8 winners had run over hurdles that season (2 of 3 exceptions had won a point to point)
Higher rated horses have fared best recently, with the 10 of 11 places being filled by horses rated 135+ in past 3 renewals (including all 3 winners). 6 6 of 8 winners had run in the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase in December, finishing 13F17RO
Irish trainers (7-15-60) have won 7 of 8 runnings & filled 77% of the places from approximately 47.2% of the total runners, which compares very well to British trainers (1-6-66).
7 of 8 winners were priced 13/2 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting
And my ranking based on those trends:
Arabella Boy 81%
Chicago Grey 75%
Sizing Australia 75%
Outlaw Pete 74%
Bostons Angel 74%
Shakervilz 70%
Uncle Junior 67%
Balthazar King 67%
Freneys Well 64%
Hoopy 64%
Doctor Pat 64%
A New Story 60%
Long Strand 56%
De Danu 56%
Reste Demohaison 54%
Jacks Island 54%
Saddlers Storm 52%
Northern Alliance 51%
Paco Jack 49%
Big Shu 48%
Leac An Scail 48%
Fredo 48%
Pentiffic 47%
Triggerman 44%
Nedzer´s Return 43%
Backstage 43%
Gullible Gordon 43%
Clear Hills 43%
Another Jewel 42%
Hey Big Spender 41%
Wedger Pardy 41%
Double Dizzy 39%
Shalimar Fromentro 38%
Victrix Gale 36%
Drawn N Drank 36%
Midnight Haze 34%
Pearse 33%
Cool Operator 33%
Quick Fire 32%
Passato 28%
Any Currency 28%
Poker De Sivola 28%
Dashing George 22%
Sacree Tiepy 21%
Sanjaka De Thaix 21%
Shortlist
Arabella Boy 81%
Chicago Grey 75%
Sizing Australia 75%
Outlaw Pete 74%
Bostons Angel 74%
Arabella Boy stands clear at the top, with the four remaining horses very tightly bunched. Chicago Grey is the class horse, and if taking to these fences, could turn this into a procession if on a going day, as stamina certainly won't be an issue. We have a former winner in Sizing Australia (let me down last year) and Outlaw Pete is a C&D winner. The former classy Bostons Angel makes up the quintet.
Could end up having a couple of bets here, but purely on trends...
Selection: Arabella Boy
The race that tends to ploarize opinion. Some love it, and thinks it brings somethig new to the Festival. Others dislike it and think it has no place at the mecca of jumps racing. Wherever your views lie, here's what the trends throw out in terms of a ranking:
In past 6 years 5 of the 6 winners were aged 8 to 10 and 8 of the last 11 horses aged 11+ to make the frame had won or placed in the race before.
5 of 8 winners won on their last run over fences
6 of 8 winners had run in past 40 days (2 exceptions had last run in cross country race at Cheltenham December meeting)
7 of 8 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
8 of 8 winners had run at least 11 times over fences
7 of 8 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases
7 of 8 winners had won over 3M+ (exception had won over 2M 6F & been placed in 3 of 4 runs over CD)
5 of 8 winners had won or placed over this CD (1 exception was having first start and other 2 failed to complete on only run on the Cross Country course)
5 of 8 winners had run over hurdles that season (2 of 3 exceptions had won a point to point)
Higher rated horses have fared best recently, with the 10 of 11 places being filled by horses rated 135+ in past 3 renewals (including all 3 winners). 6 6 of 8 winners had run in the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase in December, finishing 13F17RO
Irish trainers (7-15-60) have won 7 of 8 runnings & filled 77% of the places from approximately 47.2% of the total runners, which compares very well to British trainers (1-6-66).
7 of 8 winners were priced 13/2 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting
And my ranking based on those trends:
Arabella Boy 81%
Chicago Grey 75%
Sizing Australia 75%
Outlaw Pete 74%
Bostons Angel 74%
Shakervilz 70%
Uncle Junior 67%
Balthazar King 67%
Freneys Well 64%
Hoopy 64%
Doctor Pat 64%
A New Story 60%
Long Strand 56%
De Danu 56%
Reste Demohaison 54%
Jacks Island 54%
Saddlers Storm 52%
Northern Alliance 51%
Paco Jack 49%
Big Shu 48%
Leac An Scail 48%
Fredo 48%
Pentiffic 47%
Triggerman 44%
Nedzer´s Return 43%
Backstage 43%
Gullible Gordon 43%
Clear Hills 43%
Another Jewel 42%
Hey Big Spender 41%
Wedger Pardy 41%
Double Dizzy 39%
Shalimar Fromentro 38%
Victrix Gale 36%
Drawn N Drank 36%
Midnight Haze 34%
Pearse 33%
Cool Operator 33%
Quick Fire 32%
Passato 28%
Any Currency 28%
Poker De Sivola 28%
Dashing George 22%
Sacree Tiepy 21%
Sanjaka De Thaix 21%
Shortlist
Arabella Boy 81%
Chicago Grey 75%
Sizing Australia 75%
Outlaw Pete 74%
Bostons Angel 74%
Arabella Boy stands clear at the top, with the four remaining horses very tightly bunched. Chicago Grey is the class horse, and if taking to these fences, could turn this into a procession if on a going day, as stamina certainly won't be an issue. We have a former winner in Sizing Australia (let me down last year) and Outlaw Pete is a C&D winner. The former classy Bostons Angel makes up the quintet.
Could end up having a couple of bets here, but purely on trends...
Selection: Arabella Boy
Pulteney Novices Chase
A tough one to weigh up with any confidence at the moment, with so many runners still engaged, but here are the main trends I evaluated each horse against:
7 year olds have won 6 of the 8 runnings from approximately 41.7% of the total runners.
The last 7 winners carried 10-11 or more though with the race now limited to horses rated 140 or less, it’s highly likely all runners will have at least 10-11. In past 2 years all 8 places were filled by horses carrying 11-4 or more.
Horses officially rated 132 or higher won the last 7 renewals and filled 23 of 32 places, though conditions of this race changed in 2011 as now only horses rated 140 or less are eligible to run in this, so previous official rating figures.
8 of 8 winners finished in the first 2 last time out
6 of 8 winners posted a career high RPR of 136+ last time out
7 of 8 winners finished in first 3 on all completed starts over fences that season (exception finished in first three in 3 of 4 chase starts)
6 of 8 winners were having their first run in a handicap chase
8 of 8 winners had run 3 to 7 times over fences that season
5 of 8 winners had won just 1 chase (exceptions had won 0 or 2 chases)
8 of 8 winners had their last run in past 60 days
7 of 8 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception not run over further than 2M 2F)
4 of 8 winners ran in a hurdle race at the previous year's Festival
6 of 8 winners were officially rated 125+ over hurdles
6 of 8 winners had run no more than 7 times over hurdles
4 of 8 winners had been placed in a graded/listed hurdle
7 of 8 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
And based purely on those (weighted) trends, here is my ranking of the runners:
The Druids Nephew 74%
Forgotten Gold 69%
Vulcanite 68%
Carlito Brigante 66%
Attaglance 66%
Star Neuville 64%
Colour Squadron 63%
Poole Master 62%
Saphir River 61%
Act Of Kalanisi 60%
Ohio Gold 60%
Tetlami 59%
Fourjacks 59%
Nuts N Bolts 59%
Eastlake 59%
Safran De Cotte 58%
Alderwood 57%
Savello 57%
Yurok 57%
Russian War 57%
Opening Batsman 56%
Buckers Bridge 56%
The Tracey Shuffle 56%
Tour D´Argent 55%
Grove Pride 55%
Ballypatrick 55%
Rouge Et Blanc 54%
Howard´s Legacy 53%
Hazy Tom 53%
Chartreux 53%
White Star Line 53%
Restless Harry 52%
Swift Arrow 52%
Dare Me 52%
Toner D´Oudairies 51%
Johns Spirit 50%
The Cockney Mackem 50%
Battle Group 50%
Nataani 49%
Prima Vista 49%
Shangani 47%
Saved By John 47%
Tikawa Moirette 47%
Beeverstown 47%
Top Smart 47%
What A Warrior 46%
Kealigolane 46%
Kapga De Cerisy 45%
Bobowen 45%
Urgence D´Estruval 45%
Escort´men 45%
Please Talk 45%
Tenor Nivernais 44%
Ackertac 44%
Arthur´s Pass 44%
Arbeo 43%
Real Milan 41%
Farrells Fancy 41%
Mountainous 41%
Sweet My Lord 40%
Tony Star 40%
Kingsmere 40%
Garynella 40%
Clouded Thoughts 40%
Rajdhani Express 38%
Rebel Rebellion 38%
Parsnip Pete 38%
Kruzhlinin 37%
Canaly 37%
Sustainability 36%
Bennys Mist 36%
Renard D´Irlande 35%
Saoirse Dun 35%
Shuil Royale 35%
Gores Island 35%
Sew On Target 34%
No Planning 33%
Nobunaga 29%
Megastar 28%
Klepht 27%
Miradane 26%
Merrion Square 26%
Ice ´N´ Easy 26%
On The Bridge 22%
The Druids Nephew is nicely clear on the trends, with plenty others bunching up behind him. I will be almost certain to have another bet closer to the time, with any one of the other top 5 or 6 horses coming under consideration.
Selection: The Druids Nephew - current 13.5 here.
A tough one to weigh up with any confidence at the moment, with so many runners still engaged, but here are the main trends I evaluated each horse against:
7 year olds have won 6 of the 8 runnings from approximately 41.7% of the total runners.
The last 7 winners carried 10-11 or more though with the race now limited to horses rated 140 or less, it’s highly likely all runners will have at least 10-11. In past 2 years all 8 places were filled by horses carrying 11-4 or more.
Horses officially rated 132 or higher won the last 7 renewals and filled 23 of 32 places, though conditions of this race changed in 2011 as now only horses rated 140 or less are eligible to run in this, so previous official rating figures.
8 of 8 winners finished in the first 2 last time out
6 of 8 winners posted a career high RPR of 136+ last time out
7 of 8 winners finished in first 3 on all completed starts over fences that season (exception finished in first three in 3 of 4 chase starts)
6 of 8 winners were having their first run in a handicap chase
8 of 8 winners had run 3 to 7 times over fences that season
5 of 8 winners had won just 1 chase (exceptions had won 0 or 2 chases)
8 of 8 winners had their last run in past 60 days
7 of 8 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception not run over further than 2M 2F)
4 of 8 winners ran in a hurdle race at the previous year's Festival
6 of 8 winners were officially rated 125+ over hurdles
6 of 8 winners had run no more than 7 times over hurdles
4 of 8 winners had been placed in a graded/listed hurdle
7 of 8 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
And based purely on those (weighted) trends, here is my ranking of the runners:
The Druids Nephew 74%
Forgotten Gold 69%
Vulcanite 68%
Carlito Brigante 66%
Attaglance 66%
Star Neuville 64%
Colour Squadron 63%
Poole Master 62%
Saphir River 61%
Act Of Kalanisi 60%
Ohio Gold 60%
Tetlami 59%
Fourjacks 59%
Nuts N Bolts 59%
Eastlake 59%
Safran De Cotte 58%
Alderwood 57%
Savello 57%
Yurok 57%
Russian War 57%
Opening Batsman 56%
Buckers Bridge 56%
The Tracey Shuffle 56%
Tour D´Argent 55%
Grove Pride 55%
Ballypatrick 55%
Rouge Et Blanc 54%
Howard´s Legacy 53%
Hazy Tom 53%
Chartreux 53%
White Star Line 53%
Restless Harry 52%
Swift Arrow 52%
Dare Me 52%
Toner D´Oudairies 51%
Johns Spirit 50%
The Cockney Mackem 50%
Battle Group 50%
Nataani 49%
Prima Vista 49%
Shangani 47%
Saved By John 47%
Tikawa Moirette 47%
Beeverstown 47%
Top Smart 47%
What A Warrior 46%
Kealigolane 46%
Kapga De Cerisy 45%
Bobowen 45%
Urgence D´Estruval 45%
Escort´men 45%
Please Talk 45%
Tenor Nivernais 44%
Ackertac 44%
Arthur´s Pass 44%
Arbeo 43%
Real Milan 41%
Farrells Fancy 41%
Mountainous 41%
Sweet My Lord 40%
Tony Star 40%
Kingsmere 40%
Garynella 40%
Clouded Thoughts 40%
Rajdhani Express 38%
Rebel Rebellion 38%
Parsnip Pete 38%
Kruzhlinin 37%
Canaly 37%
Sustainability 36%
Bennys Mist 36%
Renard D´Irlande 35%
Saoirse Dun 35%
Shuil Royale 35%
Gores Island 35%
Sew On Target 34%
No Planning 33%
Nobunaga 29%
Megastar 28%
Klepht 27%
Miradane 26%
Merrion Square 26%
Ice ´N´ Easy 26%
On The Bridge 22%
The Druids Nephew is nicely clear on the trends, with plenty others bunching up behind him. I will be almost certain to have another bet closer to the time, with any one of the other top 5 or 6 horses coming under consideration.
Selection: The Druids Nephew - current 13.5 here.
it's grown on me too - let's face it none of us had a clue what was going on when it first ran but the form holds together quite well.
- let's face it none of us had a clue what was going on when it first ran but the form holds together quite well.
JOCI's going deep now - the Pulteney already! good work.
Was a bit of a marathon effort ploughing through all those runners.
JLT Specialty Chase
Trends:
10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled all 38 places
Irish bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from approximately 51.5% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured.
All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143, 4 of last 5 winners were rated 142 or 143.
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 5 wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
9 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2m6f+ at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
3 of 10 winners (last 3) had run over hurdles in late January or February
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
7 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1
And based on the above, here's the ranking of what is still a very large field:
Duke Of Lucca17 95%
Cantlow64 94%
Saint Are24 89%
Magnanimity33 89%
Monbeg Dude24 89%
On Trend38 88%
Prince Of Pirates32 88%
Bensalem30 84%
Golden Chieftain18 84%
Ballynagour18 83%
Court By Surprise87 83%
No Secrets21 83%
Carlito Brigante25F 82%
Monkerty Tunkerty20 82%
Opening Batsman17 80%
Muirhead12 78%
Alfie Sherrin75 78%
Cross Appeal75 78%
Rigadin De Beauchene24 78%
Same Difference17 78%
Knockara Beau34 77%
Fruity O´Rooney45 77%
Chartreux54 77%
Panther Claw47 77%
Super Duty38 76%
Rolling Aces17 76%
Loch Ba55 75%
Nuts N Bolts28 75%
Frisco Depot18 72%
Tour Des Champs24 71%
Jadanli21 70%
Realt Mor10 70%
Merry King80 69%
Lost Glory150 69%
Cloudy Too24 69%
Sweeney Tunes16 67%
Mountainous25 67%
Quinz17 66%
Problema Tic18 66%
Romanesco35 66%
Wyck Hill17 66%
One In A Milan38 66%
Ackertac45 65%
Walkon45 64%
Battle Group45 64%
Ballyoliver12 5x 64%
Tarquinius47 64%
Summery Justice17 61%
Quel Esprit31 59%
Bold Sir Brian45 59%
Sire Collonges115 59%
Tatenen24 59%
Bahrain Storm11 59%
Sunnyhillboy59 58%
Tullamore Dew45 58%
Planet Of Sound88 57%
Our Mick45 57%
Nadiya De La Vega45 57%
Tenor Nivernais16 56%
Major Malarkey24 55%
Relax25 54%
Thegreatjohnbrowne45 54%
The Rainbow Hunter24 54%
Our Father31 53%
Johns Spirit45 53%
De Boitron37 53%
Dashing George18 53%
The Package59 52%
Deal Done115 51%
Tartak10 51%
White Star Line17 51%
Calgary Bay10 51%
Poole Master26 51%
Gullinbursti45 51%
Hey Big Spender31 50%
Billie Magern88 49%
Pete The Feat32 46%
Time For Spring46 46%
Pentiffic40 46%
Lively Baron24 46%
Lambro12 46%
Quantitativeeasing17 45%
Glenquest47 45%
Bescot Springs101 41%
Toner D´Oudairies44 39%
Balthazar King116 39%
Quartz De Thaix24 35%
Midnight Chase45 32%
Odysseas107 32%
Kakagh26 32%
Riguez Dancer26 28%
Prophete De Guye20 21%
Plein Pouvoir18 21%
Duke of Lucca and Cantlow lead the way on the stats / trends. I very much like the look of Cantlow, but at this stage, there can be no bet as there are doubts over which race he might be going for. Of the stats above, I've not actually factored in the SP yet, as the current prices are higher than what they will be on the day, but should Cantlow line up, he'd be sure to be amongst the favourites, and as such, would finish top of the rankings.
Trends:
10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled all 38 places
Irish bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from approximately 51.5% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured.
All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143, 4 of last 5 winners were rated 142 or 143.
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 5 wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
9 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2m6f+ at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
3 of 10 winners (last 3) had run over hurdles in late January or February
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
7 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1
And based on the above, here's the ranking of what is still a very large field:
Duke Of Lucca17 95%
Cantlow64 94%
Saint Are24 89%
Magnanimity33 89%
Monbeg Dude24 89%
On Trend38 88%
Prince Of Pirates32 88%
Bensalem30 84%
Golden Chieftain18 84%
Ballynagour18 83%
Court By Surprise87 83%
No Secrets21 83%
Carlito Brigante25F 82%
Monkerty Tunkerty20 82%
Opening Batsman17 80%
Muirhead12 78%
Alfie Sherrin75 78%
Cross Appeal75 78%
Rigadin De Beauchene24 78%
Same Difference17 78%
Knockara Beau34 77%
Fruity O´Rooney45 77%
Chartreux54 77%
Panther Claw47 77%
Super Duty38 76%
Rolling Aces17 76%
Loch Ba55 75%
Nuts N Bolts28 75%
Frisco Depot18 72%
Tour Des Champs24 71%
Jadanli21 70%
Realt Mor10 70%
Merry King80 69%
Lost Glory150 69%
Cloudy Too24 69%
Sweeney Tunes16 67%
Mountainous25 67%
Quinz17 66%
Problema Tic18 66%
Romanesco35 66%
Wyck Hill17 66%
One In A Milan38 66%
Ackertac45 65%
Walkon45 64%
Battle Group45 64%
Ballyoliver12 5x 64%
Tarquinius47 64%
Summery Justice17 61%
Quel Esprit31 59%
Bold Sir Brian45 59%
Sire Collonges115 59%
Tatenen24 59%
Bahrain Storm11 59%
Sunnyhillboy59 58%
Tullamore Dew45 58%
Planet Of Sound88 57%
Our Mick45 57%
Nadiya De La Vega45 57%
Tenor Nivernais16 56%
Major Malarkey24 55%
Relax25 54%
Thegreatjohnbrowne45 54%
The Rainbow Hunter24 54%
Our Father31 53%
Johns Spirit45 53%
De Boitron37 53%
Dashing George18 53%
The Package59 52%
Deal Done115 51%
Tartak10 51%
White Star Line17 51%
Calgary Bay10 51%
Poole Master26 51%
Gullinbursti45 51%
Hey Big Spender31 50%
Billie Magern88 49%
Pete The Feat32 46%
Time For Spring46 46%
Pentiffic40 46%
Lively Baron24 46%
Lambro12 46%
Quantitativeeasing17 45%
Glenquest47 45%
Bescot Springs101 41%
Toner D´Oudairies44 39%
Balthazar King116 39%
Quartz De Thaix24 35%
Midnight Chase45 32%
Odysseas107 32%
Kakagh26 32%
Riguez Dancer26 28%
Prophete De Guye20 21%
Plein Pouvoir18 21%
Duke of Lucca and Cantlow lead the way on the stats / trends. I very much like the look of Cantlow, but at this stage, there can be no bet as there are doubts over which race he might be going for. Of the stats above, I've not actually factored in the SP yet, as the current prices are higher than what they will be on the day, but should Cantlow line up, he'd be sure to be amongst the favourites, and as such, would finish top of the rankings.
Grand Annual
Key Trends
9 out of 10 winners were aged 5 to 9
10 of 10 winners carried 10-13 or less and so are heavily favoured
8 out of 10 winners were officially rated 134 or lower
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed chase start (exception 5th in a grade 2)
9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 5 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in past 45 days
9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 12 chases
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer h'cap chases (3 making h'cap chase debut)
6 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap chase (2 of the 4 others had won just 1)
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a graded chase (1 exception had finished 6th in previous Grand Annual on only graded chase start & other exception had yet to run in a graded chase but had placed in three grade 1 hurdles)
7 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 other was placed on both starts here)
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival (none had won)
Based on tha above (weighted) trends, ehere are my rankings for the field:
Lancetto41 93%
Toubab13 85%
Kandari42 85%
Tetlami22 84%
Alderwood40 84%
Mad Moose48 83%
Sustainability16 78%
Kapga De Cerisy21 77%
Vulcanite37 77%
Benefficient48 76%
Lambro15 76%
Far Away So Close40 76%
Saphir River62 76%
Keki Buku14 76%
Kudu Country13 75%
Edgardo Sol34 75%
Astracad90 75%
His Excellency34 74%
Ballynagour21 71%
Marshal Zhukov34 71%
Savello36 71%
Silver Roque14 5x 71%
Desert Cry40 70%
Saved By John13 70%
Garynella13 70%
Tikawa Moirette105 70%
Beeverstown22 70%
Absolutlyfantastic35F 70%
Ballywatt14 70%
Majala34 69%
Cantlow67 69%
Kid Cassidy119 68%
Soll69 68%
Call The Police19 67%
Realt Dubh19 67%
Free World21 67%
Shangani32 63%
Viva Colonia40 62%
Parsnip Pete43 62%
Ulck Du Lin83 61%
Anquetta40 61%
Donnas Palm110 61%
Ballyadam Brook19 61%
Escort´men21 61%
Sew On Target14 61%
Gus Macrae20 60%
Regal D´Estruval172 60%
Tataniano105 58%
Petit Robin34 58%
Tatenen27 58%
Wishfull Thinking34 57%
French Opera34 57%
Pigeon Island27 57%
Drumshambo34 54%
Rody62 54%
Eastlake41 53%
Nobunaga15 53%
Green Belt Elite1135 53%
Baily Green79 52%
Shooters Wood34 52%
Renard20 52%
Stagecoach Pearl26 51%
King Edmund41 50%
Oiseau De Nuit20 49%
Oh Crick20 49%
Tanks For That34 47%
Falcon Island41 42%
Kumbeshwar48 40%
Anay Turge21 35%
Nozic21 34%
Mister Matt146 26%
A clear leader on the trends is Lancetto, and there are a few bunched up behind him, including Alderwood, who I will be having a close look at once running plans are finalised, as he could be one of the Festival plot horses.
Key Trends
9 out of 10 winners were aged 5 to 9
10 of 10 winners carried 10-13 or less and so are heavily favoured
8 out of 10 winners were officially rated 134 or lower
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed chase start (exception 5th in a grade 2)
9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 5 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in past 45 days
9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 12 chases
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer h'cap chases (3 making h'cap chase debut)
6 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap chase (2 of the 4 others had won just 1)
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a graded chase (1 exception had finished 6th in previous Grand Annual on only graded chase start & other exception had yet to run in a graded chase but had placed in three grade 1 hurdles)
7 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 other was placed on both starts here)
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival (none had won)
Based on tha above (weighted) trends, ehere are my rankings for the field:
Lancetto41 93%
Toubab13 85%
Kandari42 85%
Tetlami22 84%
Alderwood40 84%
Mad Moose48 83%
Sustainability16 78%
Kapga De Cerisy21 77%
Vulcanite37 77%
Benefficient48 76%
Lambro15 76%
Far Away So Close40 76%
Saphir River62 76%
Keki Buku14 76%
Kudu Country13 75%
Edgardo Sol34 75%
Astracad90 75%
His Excellency34 74%
Ballynagour21 71%
Marshal Zhukov34 71%
Savello36 71%
Silver Roque14 5x 71%
Desert Cry40 70%
Saved By John13 70%
Garynella13 70%
Tikawa Moirette105 70%
Beeverstown22 70%
Absolutlyfantastic35F 70%
Ballywatt14 70%
Majala34 69%
Cantlow67 69%
Kid Cassidy119 68%
Soll69 68%
Call The Police19 67%
Realt Dubh19 67%
Free World21 67%
Shangani32 63%
Viva Colonia40 62%
Parsnip Pete43 62%
Ulck Du Lin83 61%
Anquetta40 61%
Donnas Palm110 61%
Ballyadam Brook19 61%
Escort´men21 61%
Sew On Target14 61%
Gus Macrae20 60%
Regal D´Estruval172 60%
Tataniano105 58%
Petit Robin34 58%
Tatenen27 58%
Wishfull Thinking34 57%
French Opera34 57%
Pigeon Island27 57%
Drumshambo34 54%
Rody62 54%
Eastlake41 53%
Nobunaga15 53%
Green Belt Elite1135 53%
Baily Green79 52%
Shooters Wood34 52%
Renard20 52%
Stagecoach Pearl26 51%
King Edmund41 50%
Oiseau De Nuit20 49%
Oh Crick20 49%
Tanks For That34 47%
Falcon Island41 42%
Kumbeshwar48 40%
Anay Turge21 35%
Nozic21 34%
Mister Matt146 26%
A clear leader on the trends is Lancetto, and there are a few bunched up behind him, including Alderwood, who I will be having a close look at once running plans are finalised, as he could be one of the Festival plot horses.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Key Trends
34 of 38 winners were aged 5 or 6
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days (12/13 run last 52 days)
8 of 10 winners (14/16) won last time out (2 exceptions placed)
8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out
10 of 10 (11/12) winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts
9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level)
2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)
11 of the last 12 winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 132
6 of the last 8 winners going off 10/1 or bigger.
Applying these trends to the field (weighted), gives the following ranking:
Champagne Fever 100%
Melodic Rendezvous 91%
My Tent Or Yours 86%
Un Atout 86%
Puffin Billy 84%
Mozoltov 84%
Jezki 83%
Rule The World 76%
Pique Sous 75%
Rock Critic 74%
River Maigue 65%
Dodging Bullets 61%
Ifandbutwhynot 56%
I Shot The Sheriff 47%
Cause Of Causes 37%
Cheltenian 36%
Flying Cross 26%
Fire King 17%
Ostentation 17%
Selections: Champagne Fever (23/1); My Tent Or Yours (2.96)
With doubts over the participation of Champagne Fever, additional insurance taken with a bet of My Tent Or Yours, based on his facile win in the former Tote Gold Trophy.
Key Trends
34 of 38 winners were aged 5 or 6
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days (12/13 run last 52 days)
8 of 10 winners (14/16) won last time out (2 exceptions placed)
8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out
10 of 10 (11/12) winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts
9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level)
2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)
11 of the last 12 winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 132
6 of the last 8 winners going off 10/1 or bigger.
Applying these trends to the field (weighted), gives the following ranking:
Champagne Fever 100%
Melodic Rendezvous 91%
My Tent Or Yours 86%
Un Atout 86%
Puffin Billy 84%
Mozoltov 84%
Jezki 83%
Rule The World 76%
Pique Sous 75%
Rock Critic 74%
River Maigue 65%
Dodging Bullets 61%
Ifandbutwhynot 56%
I Shot The Sheriff 47%
Cause Of Causes 37%
Cheltenian 36%
Flying Cross 26%
Fire King 17%
Ostentation 17%
Selections: Champagne Fever (23/1); My Tent Or Yours (2.96)
With doubts over the participation of Champagne Fever, additional insurance taken with a bet of My Tent Or Yours, based on his facile win in the former Tote Gold Trophy.
Why ignore the 2nd best on your rankings?
hes the winner
hes the winner
buddeliea 07 Mar 13 07:43
Why ignore the 2nd best on your rankings?
hes the winner
Fair point, to be honest, I like the top four, but you can't back them all, and in the end, I'm swayed by MTOY's facile victory in the Tote Gold Trophy, and the fact that Melodic Rendezvous has to overcome the 'age' stat.
Why ignore the 2nd best on your rankings?
hes the winner
Fair point, to be honest, I like the top four, but you can't back them all, and in the end, I'm swayed by MTOY's facile victory in the Tote Gold Trophy, and the fact that Melodic Rendezvous has to overcome the 'age' stat.
I get the impression when I see MR in action that he wants to go further.
JLT Specialty Chase
Trends:
10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled all 38 places
Irish bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from approximately 51.5% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured.
All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143, 4 of last 5 winners were rated 142 or 143.
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 5 wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
9 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2m6f+ at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
3 of 10 winners (last 3) had run over hurdles in late January or February
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
7 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1
And based on the above, here's the ranking of the latest field:
Duke Of Lucca17 95%
Cantlow64 94%
17 Golden Chieftain18 89%
Monbeg Dude24 89%
Saint Are24 84%
10 No Secrets21 83%
32 Carlito Brigante25F 82%
25 Monkerty Tunkerty20 82%
21 Chartreux54 82%
Opening Batsman17 80%
Muirhead12 78%
29 Alfie Sherrin75 78%
Fruity O´Rooney45 77%
30 Loch Ba55 75%
28 Nuts N Bolts28 75%
Knockara Beau34 72%
Tour Des Champs24 71%
Jadanli21 70%
Merry King80 69%
Cloudy Too24 69%
11 Mountainous25 67%
18 Summery Justice17 66%
Walkon45 64%
16 Battle Group45 64%
9 Ballyoliver12 5x 64%
23 Tullamore Dew45 63%
Our Mick45 62%
20 Relax25 59%
Sire Collonges115 59%
22 Johns Spirit45 58%
Sunnyhillboy59 58%
Planet Of Sound88 57%
Nadiya De La Vega45 57%
Tenor Nivernais16 56%
19 White Star Line17 56%
14 Thegreatjohnbrowne45 54%
15 De Boitron37 53%
The Package59 52%
31 Deal Done115 51%
27 Tartak10 51%
26 Poole Master26 51%
24 Gullinbursti45 51%
Hey Big Spender10 50%
12 Billie Magern10 49%
29 Alfie Sherrin75 46%
8 Time For Spring46 46%
7 Pentiffic40 46%
5 Lively Baron24 46%
Quantitativeeasing17 45%
6 Glenquest47 45%
1 Bescot Springs101 41%
13 Toner D´Oudairies44 39%
Quartz De Thaix24 35%
Midnight Chase45 32%
3 Riguez Dancer26 28%
4 Prophete De Guye20 21%
2 Plein Pouvoir18 21%
Selections: Duke Of Lucca (22) & Cantlow (9.6)
Only small interest so far, pending running plans. Will go in again once plans finalised (or not as the case may be).
Trends:
10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled all 38 places
Irish bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from approximately 51.5% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured.
All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143, 4 of last 5 winners were rated 142 or 143.
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 5 wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
9 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2m6f+ at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
3 of 10 winners (last 3) had run over hurdles in late January or February
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
7 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1
And based on the above, here's the ranking of the latest field:
Duke Of Lucca17 95%
Cantlow64 94%
17 Golden Chieftain18 89%
Monbeg Dude24 89%
Saint Are24 84%
10 No Secrets21 83%
32 Carlito Brigante25F 82%
25 Monkerty Tunkerty20 82%
21 Chartreux54 82%
Opening Batsman17 80%
Muirhead12 78%
29 Alfie Sherrin75 78%
Fruity O´Rooney45 77%
30 Loch Ba55 75%
28 Nuts N Bolts28 75%
Knockara Beau34 72%
Tour Des Champs24 71%
Jadanli21 70%
Merry King80 69%
Cloudy Too24 69%
11 Mountainous25 67%
18 Summery Justice17 66%
Walkon45 64%
16 Battle Group45 64%
9 Ballyoliver12 5x 64%
23 Tullamore Dew45 63%
Our Mick45 62%
20 Relax25 59%
Sire Collonges115 59%
22 Johns Spirit45 58%
Sunnyhillboy59 58%
Planet Of Sound88 57%
Nadiya De La Vega45 57%
Tenor Nivernais16 56%
19 White Star Line17 56%
14 Thegreatjohnbrowne45 54%
15 De Boitron37 53%
The Package59 52%
31 Deal Done115 51%
27 Tartak10 51%
26 Poole Master26 51%
24 Gullinbursti45 51%
Hey Big Spender10 50%
12 Billie Magern10 49%
29 Alfie Sherrin75 46%
8 Time For Spring46 46%
7 Pentiffic40 46%
5 Lively Baron24 46%
Quantitativeeasing17 45%
6 Glenquest47 45%
1 Bescot Springs101 41%
13 Toner D´Oudairies44 39%
Quartz De Thaix24 35%
Midnight Chase45 32%
3 Riguez Dancer26 28%
4 Prophete De Guye20 21%
2 Plein Pouvoir18 21%
Selections: Duke Of Lucca (22) & Cantlow (9.6)
Only small interest so far, pending running plans. Will go in again once plans finalised (or not as the case may be).
Thats a fair point Duffy,and a soft ground Supreme may well suit a horse with good form over 2m on soft,that stays further than 2.
National Hunt Chase
The trends:
7 and 8 year olds have won 9 of last 10 but have represented approximately 65.8% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded chase last time)
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since August
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a 3M+ chase
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdle or chase over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 chases (2 exceptions were 2nd season chasers)
10 of 10 winners made their debut in a bumper, hurdle or point to point
5 of 8 British-trained winners (last 4) had won or placed in Newbury chase over 2M 4F+
7 of 10 winners were held up towards the rear
Based on the above, and for the current slimmed down field of 30 horses, I get the following ranking:
Godsmejudge 84%
Itoldyou 84%
Hunters Lodge 83%
Emperor´s Choice 81%
Benheir 76%
Highland Lodge 76%
So Fine 76%
Fentara 76%
Present To You 74%
Tofino Bay 73%
Hawkes Point 72%
Merry King 71%
Back In Focus 71%
Twirling Magnet 66%
Tour Des Champs 65%
Court By Surprise 64%
Drawn N Drank 64%
Real Milan 64%
Vesper Bell 64%
Buddy Bolero 62%
Rival D´Estruval 62%
Sacred Mountain 61%
Boston Bob 60%
Our Island 56%
Rose Of The Moon 54%
Sea Of Thunder 54%
Top Smart 50%
Lyreen Legend 43%
Scampi Boy 22%
Heathyards Flyer 20%
So on ratings we're looking at a shortlist of 4 horses:
Godsmejudge 84%
Itoldyou 84%
Hunters Lodge 83%
Emperor´s Choice 81%
So far, I've had a wager on Godsmejudge @ 13.5 (and lost a small amount on defector Makethemostofnow), and just had a little on Hunters Lodge at 150/1.
I will be having a look at the claims of others over the next few days.
The trends:
7 and 8 year olds have won 9 of last 10 but have represented approximately 65.8% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded chase last time)
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since August
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a 3M+ chase
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdle or chase over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 chases (2 exceptions were 2nd season chasers)
10 of 10 winners made their debut in a bumper, hurdle or point to point
5 of 8 British-trained winners (last 4) had won or placed in Newbury chase over 2M 4F+
7 of 10 winners were held up towards the rear
Based on the above, and for the current slimmed down field of 30 horses, I get the following ranking:
Godsmejudge 84%
Itoldyou 84%
Hunters Lodge 83%
Emperor´s Choice 81%
Benheir 76%
Highland Lodge 76%
So Fine 76%
Fentara 76%
Present To You 74%
Tofino Bay 73%
Hawkes Point 72%
Merry King 71%
Back In Focus 71%
Twirling Magnet 66%
Tour Des Champs 65%
Court By Surprise 64%
Drawn N Drank 64%
Real Milan 64%
Vesper Bell 64%
Buddy Bolero 62%
Rival D´Estruval 62%
Sacred Mountain 61%
Boston Bob 60%
Our Island 56%
Rose Of The Moon 54%
Sea Of Thunder 54%
Top Smart 50%
Lyreen Legend 43%
Scampi Boy 22%
Heathyards Flyer 20%
So on ratings we're looking at a shortlist of 4 horses:
Godsmejudge 84%
Itoldyou 84%
Hunters Lodge 83%
Emperor´s Choice 81%
So far, I've had a wager on Godsmejudge @ 13.5 (and lost a small amount on defector Makethemostofnow), and just had a little on Hunters Lodge at 150/1.
I will be having a look at the claims of others over the next few days.
Albert Bartlett Hurdle
8 out of 10 winners Irish / French bred
7 of 8 winners finished in the first 2 last time out (exception was 4th in the grade 2 Boyne Hurdle against seasoned hurdlers)
8 of 8 winners posted their highest RPR in last 2 starts
7 of 8 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time
7 of 8 winners had run 3 or 4 times over hurdles in GB and Ire
6 of 8 winners had won a graded hurdle (2 exceptions placed in a grade 2)
8 of 8 winners had won over 2M 4F+
7 of 8 winners (last 7) had not run on the flat (exception had run in non-thoroughbred races in France)
7 of 8 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from first 5 in the betting.
Based on the above, my rankings are as follows:
At Fishers Cross 86%
Champagne Fever 86%
Pont Alexandre 82%
Shutthefrontdoor 75%
African Gold 73%
Gevrey Chambertin 68%
Lienosus 67%
Sizing Gold 67%
Inish Island 66%
Rule The World 66%
Coneygree 61%
Ballycasey 60%
Cloudy Copper 60%
Ardkilly Witness 59%
O´Faolains Boy 59%
Return Spring 59%
Road To Riches 59%
Virginia Ash 59%
Utopie Des Bordes 59%
I Shot The Sheriff 58%
Our Vinnie 58%
Mozoltov 56%
Ballybough Pat 52%
Le Bec 52%
Un Atout 51%
Aaim To Prosper 50%
Bucking The Trend 50%
Flaming Charmer 50%
Loose Preformer 50%
Rocknrollrambo 50%
Superior Quality 50%
Bondage 49%
Bonisland 43%
Midnight Appeal 24%
The bet has to be At Fishers Cross, as the other highest rated horses have alternative engagements. Looks a real stayer, looks tough abd a battler, and has good winning Cheltenham form. Will be confident if there's a nice bit of cut in the ground.
Selection: At Fishers Cross
8 out of 10 winners Irish / French bred
7 of 8 winners finished in the first 2 last time out (exception was 4th in the grade 2 Boyne Hurdle against seasoned hurdlers)
8 of 8 winners posted their highest RPR in last 2 starts
7 of 8 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time
7 of 8 winners had run 3 or 4 times over hurdles in GB and Ire
6 of 8 winners had won a graded hurdle (2 exceptions placed in a grade 2)
8 of 8 winners had won over 2M 4F+
7 of 8 winners (last 7) had not run on the flat (exception had run in non-thoroughbred races in France)
7 of 8 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from first 5 in the betting.
Based on the above, my rankings are as follows:
At Fishers Cross 86%
Champagne Fever 86%
Pont Alexandre 82%
Shutthefrontdoor 75%
African Gold 73%
Gevrey Chambertin 68%
Lienosus 67%
Sizing Gold 67%
Inish Island 66%
Rule The World 66%
Coneygree 61%
Ballycasey 60%
Cloudy Copper 60%
Ardkilly Witness 59%
O´Faolains Boy 59%
Return Spring 59%
Road To Riches 59%
Virginia Ash 59%
Utopie Des Bordes 59%
I Shot The Sheriff 58%
Our Vinnie 58%
Mozoltov 56%
Ballybough Pat 52%
Le Bec 52%
Un Atout 51%
Aaim To Prosper 50%
Bucking The Trend 50%
Flaming Charmer 50%
Loose Preformer 50%
Rocknrollrambo 50%
Superior Quality 50%
Bondage 49%
Bonisland 43%
Midnight Appeal 24%
The bet has to be At Fishers Cross, as the other highest rated horses have alternative engagements. Looks a real stayer, looks tough abd a battler, and has good winning Cheltenham form. Will be confident if there's a nice bit of cut in the ground.
Selection: At Fishers Cross
Triumph Hurdle
Trends:
9 of 10 winners were by a group 1-winning sire (exception’s sire hadn’t run in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners ran the past 18 to 45 days
8 of 10 (16/19) winners won last time out
7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 132+ in one or both of last 2 runs
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times over hurdles (exception won grade 2 Adonis on 1 hurdles run)
10 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 7+ lengths
9 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts
The 10 winners had collectively run in 32 hurdles race prior to winning this, they finished in first 3 in 28 of those 32 starts.
9 of 10 winners had run on the flat
6 of 7 (13/15) winners that ran on flat in Britain were officially rated 80 or higher
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdle at Newbury, Kempton or Market Rasen
7 of the last 9 winners made their hurdling debut after November
15 of the last 19 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile H’cap Hurdle to the Festival in 2005 this race has been won by one of the first 4 in the betting in 7 of last 8 years.
Based on the above trends, here are my rankings:
Ruacana 76%
Far West 76%
Our Conor 74%
Kashmir Peak 71%
Hidden Justice 69%
Diakali 68%
Rolling Star 63%
Swnymor 62%
Somemothersdohavem 58%
Chris Pea Green 58%
Sametegal 52%
Stocktons Wing 50%
Lac Fontana 46%
Masters Blazing 45%
Blood Cotil 43%
Cape Explorer 39%
King Of Dudes 39%
Uriah Heep 39%
Ibsen 39%
Gassin Golf 38%
Vasco Du Ronceray 37%
Ruacana comes out very marginally ahead of Far West in the ratings, but was exposed behind Our Connor recently, so preference is for Far West, who has done nothing wrong, posted a couple of wide margin wins at Cheltenham, and showed last time out that he possesses plenty of speed and versatility. Our Connor is very much respected, and I may also have a saver on the day (though this is not generally a race for the Irish.
Selection: Far West
Trends:
9 of 10 winners were by a group 1-winning sire (exception’s sire hadn’t run in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners ran the past 18 to 45 days
8 of 10 (16/19) winners won last time out
7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 132+ in one or both of last 2 runs
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times over hurdles (exception won grade 2 Adonis on 1 hurdles run)
10 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 7+ lengths
9 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts
The 10 winners had collectively run in 32 hurdles race prior to winning this, they finished in first 3 in 28 of those 32 starts.
9 of 10 winners had run on the flat
6 of 7 (13/15) winners that ran on flat in Britain were officially rated 80 or higher
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdle at Newbury, Kempton or Market Rasen
7 of the last 9 winners made their hurdling debut after November
15 of the last 19 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile H’cap Hurdle to the Festival in 2005 this race has been won by one of the first 4 in the betting in 7 of last 8 years.
Based on the above trends, here are my rankings:
Ruacana 76%
Far West 76%
Our Conor 74%
Kashmir Peak 71%
Hidden Justice 69%
Diakali 68%
Rolling Star 63%
Swnymor 62%
Somemothersdohavem 58%
Chris Pea Green 58%
Sametegal 52%
Stocktons Wing 50%
Lac Fontana 46%
Masters Blazing 45%
Blood Cotil 43%
Cape Explorer 39%
King Of Dudes 39%
Uriah Heep 39%
Ibsen 39%
Gassin Golf 38%
Vasco Du Ronceray 37%
Ruacana comes out very marginally ahead of Far West in the ratings, but was exposed behind Our Connor recently, so preference is for Far West, who has done nothing wrong, posted a couple of wide margin wins at Cheltenham, and showed last time out that he possesses plenty of speed and versatility. Our Connor is very much respected, and I may also have a saver on the day (though this is not generally a race for the Irish.
Selection: Far West
Great work all of this joci lad - but have to pull you up on the melodic rendezvous one. You can't do all those stats to just go back on it and recommend one that is 5% less. Stick to your guns.
He was overlooked reluctantly, as I've been impressed with his wins. Worried about the age stat, but depending on what happens to Champagne Fever (will he run here), I mught still end up having some on him.
Foxhunters
Trends:
Horses aged 6 to 10 have a combined record of 9-10-138
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
6 of 10 winners (last 4) won last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days
6 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (4 exceptions had run in less than 7 chases)
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in no more than 3 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 3 or better (2 exceptions had yet to run in better than class 6)
7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently (1 exception was Zemsky who likely would have been beaten by front-running Baby Run had he not unseated 2 out)
6 of 10 winners were priced 14/1 or bigger and in past 6 years there have been two 33/1 winners and two 20/1 winners.
Based on the above trends, here are my ratings:
Creevytennant 90%
Divine Intavention 89%
Salsify 86%
Rumbury Grey 84%
Earth Dream 82%
Galant Nuit 82%
Louis Pasteur 82%
Radetsky March 82%
That´s Rhythm 80%
Kirkleigh 79%
Dante´s Storm 79%
Oscar Delta 78%
Tricky Trickster 77%
Cottage Oak 76%
Current Exchange 76%
Benedictus 74%
Boxing Along 74%
Offshore Account 73%
Hoopy 72%
Keenan´s Future 66%
Cloudy Lane 64%
Doctor Kingsley 64%
Faasel 64%
Vic Venturi 64%
Backstage 62%
Coombe Hill 62%
Whizzaar 62%
Rathcor 58%
What A Laugh 58%
Merchant Royal 56%
Metal Detector 56%
Chapoturgeon 54%
Rainbow Tree 47%
Up There 18%
This is an interesting one. Salsify provided me with a nice winner when taking this last year and I fancy him again to run a very nice race. However, the trends threw up a top rated horse who won impressively last time out, in Creevytennant, and who was a huge price when I got on. The one drawback, is that it's been stated he has a definite preference for going right handed. At the price, I was tempted to make a small investment though, and will also probably back Salsify on the day to repeat last year's win. Divine Intavention will come under consideration on the day, if Creevytennant fails to make the field.
Selection: Creevytennant @ 100/1; Salsify SP
Trends:
Horses aged 6 to 10 have a combined record of 9-10-138
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
6 of 10 winners (last 4) won last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days
6 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (4 exceptions had run in less than 7 chases)
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in no more than 3 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 3 or better (2 exceptions had yet to run in better than class 6)
7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently (1 exception was Zemsky who likely would have been beaten by front-running Baby Run had he not unseated 2 out)
6 of 10 winners were priced 14/1 or bigger and in past 6 years there have been two 33/1 winners and two 20/1 winners.
Based on the above trends, here are my ratings:
Creevytennant 90%
Divine Intavention 89%
Salsify 86%
Rumbury Grey 84%
Earth Dream 82%
Galant Nuit 82%
Louis Pasteur 82%
Radetsky March 82%
That´s Rhythm 80%
Kirkleigh 79%
Dante´s Storm 79%
Oscar Delta 78%
Tricky Trickster 77%
Cottage Oak 76%
Current Exchange 76%
Benedictus 74%
Boxing Along 74%
Offshore Account 73%
Hoopy 72%
Keenan´s Future 66%
Cloudy Lane 64%
Doctor Kingsley 64%
Faasel 64%
Vic Venturi 64%
Backstage 62%
Coombe Hill 62%
Whizzaar 62%
Rathcor 58%
What A Laugh 58%
Merchant Royal 56%
Metal Detector 56%
Chapoturgeon 54%
Rainbow Tree 47%
Up There 18%
This is an interesting one. Salsify provided me with a nice winner when taking this last year and I fancy him again to run a very nice race. However, the trends threw up a top rated horse who won impressively last time out, in Creevytennant, and who was a huge price when I got on. The one drawback, is that it's been stated he has a definite preference for going right handed. At the price, I was tempted to make a small investment though, and will also probably back Salsify on the day to repeat last year's win. Divine Intavention will come under consideration on the day, if Creevytennant fails to make the field.
Selection: Creevytennant @ 100/1; Salsify SP
Joci I considered Salisfy a good thing on good ground or better but unlikely to see that now. He is very ground dependent.
Yes, will make decision on the day. Have til Friday, so ground could be quite different from the first two days. He does have form on soft/heavy ground, which is what it's normally like in Ireland.
Just a question Joci re the 4 mile chase. Could you explain the relative low rating of Back In Focus. Given his ground I would have considered him one of the class acts in this race.
Really cant see Far West winning the Triumph, he is one of the horses of the whole Festival that I am keenest to oppose. Good thread though.
Sure, Back in Focus does not 'hit' 3 of the trends, namely:
1 Last time out run is outside of the desirable range
2 The typical winner would have had between 4 & 8 runs since August (BIF has had 3, with the 4th on 22nd July, so he only just fails this test, and I can see how you could 'relax' this if you wanted)
3 Not won or placed over 2m 4f at Newbury in the past (again, seeing as he's Irish trained, you might want to disregard this)
Of the three, I'd say the duration to last run is the most compelling.
Wouldn't put you off him if you really fancy him though, as his class might bring him through.
1 Last time out run is outside of the desirable range
2 The typical winner would have had between 4 & 8 runs since August (BIF has had 3, with the 4th on 22nd July, so he only just fails this test, and I can see how you could 'relax' this if you wanted)
3 Not won or placed over 2m 4f at Newbury in the past (again, seeing as he's Irish trained, you might want to disregard this)
Of the three, I'd say the duration to last run is the most compelling.
Wouldn't put you off him if you really fancy him though, as his class might bring him through.
marychain1 09 Mar 13 22:58
Really cant see Far West winning the Triumph, he is one of the horses of the whole Festival that I am keenest to oppose. Good thread though.
Anything in particular putting you off him?
Really cant see Far West winning the Triumph, he is one of the horses of the whole Festival that I am keenest to oppose. Good thread though.
Anything in particular putting you off him?
Just think he's priced up as much on his stable as his achievements, but Nicholls' previous winners of this have been different types entirely; ex-flat raiders (Zarkander & Celestial Halo). I'm sure Far West will go onto be a super animal but I'm not sure its a Triumph winner.
I don't have anything in particular to put up against it (if forced to pick I'd probably go for Rolling Star) but happy to take the field against it at 4/1.
I don't have anything in particular to put up against it (if forced to pick I'd probably go for Rolling Star) but happy to take the field against it at 4/1.
Mares Hurdle
Short and sweet - Quevega.
Selection: Quevega
Short and sweet - Quevega.
Selection: Quevega
Day 1 Summary
Supreme - Champagne Fever @ 23; My Tent Or Yours @ 2.9-2.96
Arkle - Simonsig @ SP
JT Specialty - Duke Of Lucca @ 23; Cantlow @ SP
Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly @ SP; Rock On Ruby @ 5.8
Cross Country - Arabella Boy @ 7-7.2
Mares Hurdle - Quevega @ SP
Pulteney - The Druids Nephew @ 13
Supreme - Champagne Fever @ 23; My Tent Or Yours @ 2.9-2.96
Arkle - Simonsig @ SP
JT Specialty - Duke Of Lucca @ 23; Cantlow @ SP
Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly @ SP; Rock On Ruby @ 5.8
Cross Country - Arabella Boy @ 7-7.2
Mares Hurdle - Quevega @ SP
Pulteney - The Druids Nephew @ 13
World Hurdle
Trends:
8 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8 (2 exceptions were Inglis Drever’s third win and Big Buck’s’ fourth win)
8 of 10 winners were French Bred
10 of 10 winners finished in the first two on all hurdles starts that season
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 163+ last time (exception posted RPR of 158)
10 of 10 winners had run at least 8 times over hurdles
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won over course and distance (2 others having first course start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was Inglis Drever in 2005 who had won over 2M 5F but not run over further than that)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (other 2 had finished 2nd in a grade 1)
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle that season (exception had only 1 run, in a handicap hurdle, that season & had won a grade 1 on penultimate start)
7 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (3 exceptions had won the previous year's race)
7 of 10 winners had previously finished in the first 2 at the Festival
10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Rankings based on the above:
Reve De Sivola 100%
Oscar Whisky 73%
Peddlers Cross 63%
Zaidpour 60%
Bog Warrior 49%
Solwhit 49%
So Young 45%
Quevega 43%
Wonderful Charm 41%
Fiveforthree 38%
Back In Focus 33%
American Spin 32%
Smad Place 31%
Celestial Halo 29%
Get Me Out Of Here 24%
Cloudy Spirit 24%
Oscara Dara 23%
Cross Kennon 22%
Reve De Sivola, a real stayer, ticks all the boxes, and has already taken the scalp of Oscar Whisky at the course, and therefore has to be the main selction. However, I rate the latter very highly, and at the prices, it's definitely possible to have a cover bet or ech way bet on OW, which is probably what I will do on the day.
Selection: Reve De Sivola
Trends:
8 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8 (2 exceptions were Inglis Drever’s third win and Big Buck’s’ fourth win)
8 of 10 winners were French Bred
10 of 10 winners finished in the first two on all hurdles starts that season
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 163+ last time (exception posted RPR of 158)
10 of 10 winners had run at least 8 times over hurdles
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won over course and distance (2 others having first course start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was Inglis Drever in 2005 who had won over 2M 5F but not run over further than that)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (other 2 had finished 2nd in a grade 1)
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle that season (exception had only 1 run, in a handicap hurdle, that season & had won a grade 1 on penultimate start)
7 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (3 exceptions had won the previous year's race)
7 of 10 winners had previously finished in the first 2 at the Festival
10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Rankings based on the above:
Reve De Sivola 100%
Oscar Whisky 73%
Peddlers Cross 63%
Zaidpour 60%
Bog Warrior 49%
Solwhit 49%
So Young 45%
Quevega 43%
Wonderful Charm 41%
Fiveforthree 38%
Back In Focus 33%
American Spin 32%
Smad Place 31%
Celestial Halo 29%
Get Me Out Of Here 24%
Cloudy Spirit 24%
Oscara Dara 23%
Cross Kennon 22%
Reve De Sivola, a real stayer, ticks all the boxes, and has already taken the scalp of Oscar Whisky at the course, and therefore has to be the main selction. However, I rate the latter very highly, and at the prices, it's definitely possible to have a cover bet or ech way bet on OW, which is probably what I will do on the day.
Selection: Reve De Sivola
He does tick a lot of boxes Joci, given a positive ride he will be very hard to keep of the first 3.
Jewson Novices Chase
No firm trends to go on, given the young age of this race. However, I'm hoping Dynaste will chose this option ahead of the RSA Chase, and if he does so, then he will be the bet.
Selection: Dynaste @ SP (assuming defects from RSA Chase)
No firm trends to go on, given the young age of this race. However, I'm hoping Dynaste will chose this option ahead of the RSA Chase, and if he does so, then he will be the bet.
Selection: Dynaste @ SP (assuming defects from RSA Chase)
Have backed MTOY (10's) and Champagne Fever (16's), the latter came out on top from my trends analysis also.
Have also backed The Druids Nephew in the last, have Quevega running in some multis.
Have also backed The Druids Nephew in the last, have Quevega running in some multis.
Ryanair Chase
The trends:
6 of 8 winners finished in the first 3 last time (2 exceptions unplaced in King George)
6 of 8 winners achieved an RPR of 154+ on their last chase start
7 of 8 winners had won at Cheltenham (5 over the trip)
6 of 8 winners had won a graded chase at Cheltenham
8 of 8 winners had 1 to 4 runs that season
5 of 8 winners had won or been placed in the Paddy Power or **** Gold Cups
8 of 8 winners had won a graded race
8 of 8 winners were officially rated 152+
7 of 8 winners (last 7) had won over 2M 5F or further
Since race became a grade 1, 4 of 5 winners had won a grade 1 chase & other had won Paddy Power Gold Cup
7 of 8 winners were priced 6/1 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting.
Based on the above, here are my rankings:
Riverside Theatre 80%
First Lieutenant 75%
Menorah 74%
Ghizao 74%
Champion Court 71%
Cue Card 71%
Sizing Europe 65%
Finian´s Rainbow 59%
Albertas Run 57%
For Non Stop 52%
Walkon 46%
A tricky race top weigh up, if only for uncertain running plans. Riverside Theatre comes out top of the rankings, and as last year's winner, merits great respect. However, it's the one below him in the rankings that I am most interested in. First Lieutenant has been running really well in all the big races, including the Hennessy. My observation is that he travels really well, and just gets outstayed at the business end of 3m+ races. It happened at the Festival last year too. He has good Cheltenham form, handles the track, and I think this trip will be ideal for him. The big question is whether he will run in this, or in the Gold Cup. Cue Card is a worry, but I have a suspicion he will be let down by his jumping.
Selection: First Lieutenant @ SP
The trends:
6 of 8 winners finished in the first 3 last time (2 exceptions unplaced in King George)
6 of 8 winners achieved an RPR of 154+ on their last chase start
7 of 8 winners had won at Cheltenham (5 over the trip)
6 of 8 winners had won a graded chase at Cheltenham
8 of 8 winners had 1 to 4 runs that season
5 of 8 winners had won or been placed in the Paddy Power or **** Gold Cups
8 of 8 winners had won a graded race
8 of 8 winners were officially rated 152+
7 of 8 winners (last 7) had won over 2M 5F or further
Since race became a grade 1, 4 of 5 winners had won a grade 1 chase & other had won Paddy Power Gold Cup
7 of 8 winners were priced 6/1 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting.
Based on the above, here are my rankings:
Riverside Theatre 80%
First Lieutenant 75%
Menorah 74%
Ghizao 74%
Champion Court 71%
Cue Card 71%
Sizing Europe 65%
Finian´s Rainbow 59%
Albertas Run 57%
For Non Stop 52%
Walkon 46%
A tricky race top weigh up, if only for uncertain running plans. Riverside Theatre comes out top of the rankings, and as last year's winner, merits great respect. However, it's the one below him in the rankings that I am most interested in. First Lieutenant has been running really well in all the big races, including the Hennessy. My observation is that he travels really well, and just gets outstayed at the business end of 3m+ races. It happened at the Festival last year too. He has good Cheltenham form, handles the track, and I think this trip will be ideal for him. The big question is whether he will run in this, or in the Gold Cup. Cue Card is a worry, but I have a suspicion he will be let down by his jumping.
Selection: First Lieutenant @ SP
Fred Winter
Preliminary analysis as so many declared runners, but here we go.....
Trends:
6 of 8 winners have been officially rated 124 to 130
8 of 8 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in a group 1 on flat
5 of 8 winners won last time out (3 exceptions unplaced in grade 2)
6 of 8 winners posted an RPR of 118+ in last 2 hurdles runs
7 of 8 winners had run 1 to 3 times over hurdles in GB&Ire
8 of 8 winners had run since start of February (7 out of 8 in last 28 days)
8 of 8 winners had run in no more than one h'cap hurdle (6 were making h'cap debut and other 2 won their only handicap hurdle start)
5 of 8 winners had run on the flat (3 exceptions began career in a bumper or hurdle in France)
3 of 3 winners to have raced on flat in GB&Ire were rated 89+ & had contested a group/listed race
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners had yet to win over hurdles
Based on the above, here are my current rankings:
Zamdy Man25 92%
Habesh26F 83%
Three Kingdoms20 83%
Fatcatinthehat46 80%
Pistol26 80%
Bordoni36 80%
24 Ibsen25 75%
22 Sash Of Honour26 75%
21 King Of Dudes21 73%
Milord32 72%
9 Calculated Risk4 72%
Totalize27 70%
Mcvicar28F 70%
Stocktons Wing18 69%
Saphir Du Rheu65 69%
Counsel61 67%
Blood Cotil32 61%
Ruacana32 61%
Hilali14F 61%
Flaxen Flare32 58%
27 Knight Of Pleasure25 56%
20 Sky Khan34 55%
18 One Fine Day18 55%
14 Pacelli Road17 55%
13 Hallmark Star5 55%
11 Whipcrackaway4 55%
10 Dollar Bill4 55%
7 Faanan Aldaar7 55%
5 Lone Foot Laddie38 55%
3 King Arthur21 55%
2 Dont Take Me Alive24 55%
1 Arte Del Calcio4 55%
Caid Du Berlais32 53%
26 Angelot Du Berlais34 53%
25 Dovils Date74 53%
Another Sensation96 52%
15 Deepsand29 52%
Viconte Du Noyer322 50%
Kalmann122 50%
South South West18 48%
Ptit Zig35 48%
19 Docs Legacy38 44%
16 Foster´s Road18 44%
12 Hartside48 44%
6 Mr Lando4 44%
23 Tidal Way38 42%
Sametegal22 41%
8 Juno The Muffinman45 33%
17 Captain Cardington4 31%
4 Asteroid Belt125 31%
Megalypos67 30%
Shortlist:
Zamdy Man 92%
Habesh 83%
Three Kingdoms 83%
Fatcatinthehat 80%
Pistol 80%
Bordoni 80%
Zamdy Man heads the list, and is currently at a tasty price of 23/1. Not sure if he's a definite runner, but if declared he will be a bet. I have already backed Bordoni as I think he could be well handicapped and expect him to run a big race. Moree work / analysis to be done on the Tuesday night in the pub!
Selections: Bordoni @ 14; Zamdy Man (if declared)
Preliminary analysis as so many declared runners, but here we go.....
Trends:
6 of 8 winners have been officially rated 124 to 130
8 of 8 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in a group 1 on flat
5 of 8 winners won last time out (3 exceptions unplaced in grade 2)
6 of 8 winners posted an RPR of 118+ in last 2 hurdles runs
7 of 8 winners had run 1 to 3 times over hurdles in GB&Ire
8 of 8 winners had run since start of February (7 out of 8 in last 28 days)
8 of 8 winners had run in no more than one h'cap hurdle (6 were making h'cap debut and other 2 won their only handicap hurdle start)
5 of 8 winners had run on the flat (3 exceptions began career in a bumper or hurdle in France)
3 of 3 winners to have raced on flat in GB&Ire were rated 89+ & had contested a group/listed race
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners had yet to win over hurdles
Based on the above, here are my current rankings:
Zamdy Man25 92%
Habesh26F 83%
Three Kingdoms20 83%
Fatcatinthehat46 80%
Pistol26 80%
Bordoni36 80%
24 Ibsen25 75%
22 Sash Of Honour26 75%
21 King Of Dudes21 73%
Milord32 72%
9 Calculated Risk4 72%
Totalize27 70%
Mcvicar28F 70%
Stocktons Wing18 69%
Saphir Du Rheu65 69%
Counsel61 67%
Blood Cotil32 61%
Ruacana32 61%
Hilali14F 61%
Flaxen Flare32 58%
27 Knight Of Pleasure25 56%
20 Sky Khan34 55%
18 One Fine Day18 55%
14 Pacelli Road17 55%
13 Hallmark Star5 55%
11 Whipcrackaway4 55%
10 Dollar Bill4 55%
7 Faanan Aldaar7 55%
5 Lone Foot Laddie38 55%
3 King Arthur21 55%
2 Dont Take Me Alive24 55%
1 Arte Del Calcio4 55%
Caid Du Berlais32 53%
26 Angelot Du Berlais34 53%
25 Dovils Date74 53%
Another Sensation96 52%
15 Deepsand29 52%
Viconte Du Noyer322 50%
Kalmann122 50%
South South West18 48%
Ptit Zig35 48%
19 Docs Legacy38 44%
16 Foster´s Road18 44%
12 Hartside48 44%
6 Mr Lando4 44%
23 Tidal Way38 42%
Sametegal22 41%
8 Juno The Muffinman45 33%
17 Captain Cardington4 31%
4 Asteroid Belt125 31%
Megalypos67 30%
Shortlist:
Zamdy Man 92%
Habesh 83%
Three Kingdoms 83%
Fatcatinthehat 80%
Pistol 80%
Bordoni 80%
Zamdy Man heads the list, and is currently at a tasty price of 23/1. Not sure if he's a definite runner, but if declared he will be a bet. I have already backed Bordoni as I think he could be well handicapped and expect him to run a big race. Moree work / analysis to be done on the Tuesday night in the pub!
Selections: Bordoni @ 14; Zamdy Man (if declared)
Champion Bumper
The trends:
9 of 10 winners were sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2 on the flat
9 of 10 winners won a bumper with 13+ runners
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run no more than twice since August and not finished outside first 2 in any of those starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) won last time (exception was 2nd in Open bumper at November meeting)
8 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track
7 of 10 winners had won a bumper at Naas, Fairyhouse or Punchestown
7 of 10 winners made their rules debut at either Leopardstown or Punchestown
2 of 3 British-trained winners made their debut in Ireland
9 of 10 winners had either been beaten or had to battle to gain one of their wins (1 exception was Cue Card who had run just once, winning a class 6 Fontwell bumper easily)
Rankings based on the above:
9 Purple Bay 80%
11 Gallant Tipp 71%
Sgt Reckless 70%
Union Dues 70%
Le Vent D´Antan 70%
6 Shield 68%
2 Yes Sir Brian 67%
Briar Hill 61%
Doctor Harper 61%
Golantilla 61%
The Liquidator 61%
8 Centasia 61%
Blackmail 60%
Regal Encore 60%
3 Unowhatimeanharry 60%
Johnny Og 60%
Sizing Tennessee 59%
Our Pollyanna 59%
Drumlee 51%
Empiracle 51%
10 Kayf Moss 51%
Milo Man 51%
Posiden Sea 51%
Vieux Lion Rouge 51%
Caledonia 50%
Hellorboston 50%
Pure Science 50%
4 Be Bop Boru 41%
Fascino Rustico 41%
7 Mister Nibbles 41%
Monkey Kingdom 41%
5 The Clock Leary 41%
I´m Fraam Govan 40%
Vinstar 40%
1 Lady Lectra 21%
Purple Bay stands alone at the top of the rankings, and I had a small bet at a big price, but am uncertain whether he's an intended runner or make the cut. I will be having another bet on the day, but am undecided at the moment.
Selection: Purple Bay @ 44 (not a certain runner at this stage)
The trends:
9 of 10 winners were sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2 on the flat
9 of 10 winners won a bumper with 13+ runners
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run no more than twice since August and not finished outside first 2 in any of those starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) won last time (exception was 2nd in Open bumper at November meeting)
8 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track
7 of 10 winners had won a bumper at Naas, Fairyhouse or Punchestown
7 of 10 winners made their rules debut at either Leopardstown or Punchestown
2 of 3 British-trained winners made their debut in Ireland
9 of 10 winners had either been beaten or had to battle to gain one of their wins (1 exception was Cue Card who had run just once, winning a class 6 Fontwell bumper easily)
Rankings based on the above:
9 Purple Bay 80%
11 Gallant Tipp 71%
Sgt Reckless 70%
Union Dues 70%
Le Vent D´Antan 70%
6 Shield 68%
2 Yes Sir Brian 67%
Briar Hill 61%
Doctor Harper 61%
Golantilla 61%
The Liquidator 61%
8 Centasia 61%
Blackmail 60%
Regal Encore 60%
3 Unowhatimeanharry 60%
Johnny Og 60%
Sizing Tennessee 59%
Our Pollyanna 59%
Drumlee 51%
Empiracle 51%
10 Kayf Moss 51%
Milo Man 51%
Posiden Sea 51%
Vieux Lion Rouge 51%
Caledonia 50%
Hellorboston 50%
Pure Science 50%
4 Be Bop Boru 41%
Fascino Rustico 41%
7 Mister Nibbles 41%
Monkey Kingdom 41%
5 The Clock Leary 41%
I´m Fraam Govan 40%
Vinstar 40%
1 Lady Lectra 21%
Purple Bay stands alone at the top of the rankings, and I had a small bet at a big price, but am uncertain whether he's an intended runner or make the cut. I will be having another bet on the day, but am undecided at the moment.
Selection: Purple Bay @ 44 (not a certain runner at this stage)
I just had another run through the Foxhunters, after updating the trends, and dropping the trend on starting price, as I don't think it's that significant, and came up with the following revised ranking:
Salsify 93%
Divine Intavention 90%
Creevytennant 89%
Louis Pasteur 81%
Galant Nuit 81%
Dante´s Storm 80%
Kirkleigh 79%
That´s Rhythm 79%
Benedictus 75%
Boxing Along 75%
Current Exchange 74%
Cottage Oak 72%
Earth Dream 72%
Hoopy 72%
Radetsky March 72%
Rumbury Grey 72%
Offshore Account 70%
Tricky Trickster 70%
Doctor Kingsley 65%
Oscar Delta 64%
Coombe Hill 60%
Backstage 60%
Cloudy Lane 60%
Faasel 60%
Vic Venturi 60%
Chapoturgeon 58%
Rathcor 57%
What A Laugh 56%
Merchant Royal 53%
Keenan´s Future 53%
Metal Detector 52%
Whizzaar 48%
Rainbow Tree 43%
Up There 12%
Salsify has taken over at the top. He would have been a bet anyway, and I'm still happy with 100/1 about Creevytennant. Will take a look at Divine Intavention on the day.
Selections: Creevytennant @ 100; Salsify @ SP
Salsify 93%
Divine Intavention 90%
Creevytennant 89%
Louis Pasteur 81%
Galant Nuit 81%
Dante´s Storm 80%
Kirkleigh 79%
That´s Rhythm 79%
Benedictus 75%
Boxing Along 75%
Current Exchange 74%
Cottage Oak 72%
Earth Dream 72%
Hoopy 72%
Radetsky March 72%
Rumbury Grey 72%
Offshore Account 70%
Tricky Trickster 70%
Doctor Kingsley 65%
Oscar Delta 64%
Coombe Hill 60%
Backstage 60%
Cloudy Lane 60%
Faasel 60%
Vic Venturi 60%
Chapoturgeon 58%
Rathcor 57%
What A Laugh 56%
Merchant Royal 53%
Keenan´s Future 53%
Metal Detector 52%
Whizzaar 48%
Rainbow Tree 43%
Up There 12%
Salsify has taken over at the top. He would have been a bet anyway, and I'm still happy with 100/1 about Creevytennant. Will take a look at Divine Intavention on the day.
Selections: Creevytennant @ 100; Salsify @ SP
Grand Annual
Public Health Warning - this is my least successful race of the festival from a betting perspective, so you're advised to ignore the following!
The trends:
Age 5-9 (9 out of 10)
10 of 10 winners carried 10-13 or less and so are heavily favoured.
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 139.
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed chase start (exception unplaced in grade 2)
9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 5 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in past 45 days
9 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 12 chases
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (4 were making their h'cap chase debut)
7 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap chase (2 of the 3 others had won just 1)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade chase
7 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 other was placed on both starts here)
8 of 10 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival (none had won)
Only 1 of 10 winners raced prominently
And based on the above trends (I haven't looked at the prominent racers yet), here are my rankings:
Lancetto41 85%
Tetlami22 78%
Alderwood40 78%
Kapga De Cerisy21 72%
Saphir River62 71%
His Excellency34 68%
Mad Moose48 68%
Savello12 5x 65%
Sustainability16 65%
Desert Cry40 64%
Anquetta40 64%
Keki Buku14 64%
Shangani32 64%
Saved By John13 64%
Marshal Zhukov34 63%
Majala34 62%
Benefficient48 61%
Tatenen27 60%
Viva Colonia40 57%
Absolutlyfantastic35F 57%
Ballywatt14 57%
Renard20 56%
Parsnip Pete43 56%
Gus Macrae20 56%
Ballyadam Brook19 56%
King Edmund41 54%
Regal D´Estruval172 54%
Petit Robin34 53%
Kid Cassidy119 53%
Oh Crick20 52%
Pigeon Island27 52%
French Opera34 51%
Drumshambo34 49%
Eastlake41 49%
Escort´men21 49%
Sew On Target14 49%
Rody62 49%
Green Belt Elite1135 48%
Ulck Du Lin83 47%
Shooters Wood34 47%
Tanks For That34 44%
Nobunaga15 41%
Falcon Island41 40%
Baily Green79 38%
Stagecoach Pearl26 38%
Kumbeshwar48 37%
Oiseau De Nuit20 36%
Nozic21 23%
Mister Matt146 17%
So far, I've just had the one bet on the top rated Lancetto, but not sure if he's a guaranteed runner, so will need to look more closely during the week. The other one I'd be interested in is Alderwood, who could be one of the Fetival plot horses.
Selection: Lancetto @ 46
; probable bet on Alderwood @ SP
Public Health Warning - this is my least successful race of the festival from a betting perspective, so you're advised to ignore the following!
The trends:
Age 5-9 (9 out of 10)
10 of 10 winners carried 10-13 or less and so are heavily favoured.
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 139.
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed chase start (exception unplaced in grade 2)
9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 5 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in past 45 days
9 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 12 chases
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (4 were making their h'cap chase debut)
7 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap chase (2 of the 3 others had won just 1)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade chase
7 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 other was placed on both starts here)
8 of 10 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival (none had won)
Only 1 of 10 winners raced prominently
And based on the above trends (I haven't looked at the prominent racers yet), here are my rankings:
Lancetto41 85%
Tetlami22 78%
Alderwood40 78%
Kapga De Cerisy21 72%
Saphir River62 71%
His Excellency34 68%
Mad Moose48 68%
Savello12 5x 65%
Sustainability16 65%
Desert Cry40 64%
Anquetta40 64%
Keki Buku14 64%
Shangani32 64%
Saved By John13 64%
Marshal Zhukov34 63%
Majala34 62%
Benefficient48 61%
Tatenen27 60%
Viva Colonia40 57%
Absolutlyfantastic35F 57%
Ballywatt14 57%
Renard20 56%
Parsnip Pete43 56%
Gus Macrae20 56%
Ballyadam Brook19 56%
King Edmund41 54%
Regal D´Estruval172 54%
Petit Robin34 53%
Kid Cassidy119 53%
Oh Crick20 52%
Pigeon Island27 52%
French Opera34 51%
Drumshambo34 49%
Eastlake41 49%
Escort´men21 49%
Sew On Target14 49%
Rody62 49%
Green Belt Elite1135 48%
Ulck Du Lin83 47%
Shooters Wood34 47%
Tanks For That34 44%
Nobunaga15 41%
Falcon Island41 40%
Baily Green79 38%
Stagecoach Pearl26 38%
Kumbeshwar48 37%
Oiseau De Nuit20 36%
Nozic21 23%
Mister Matt146 17%
So far, I've just had the one bet on the top rated Lancetto, but not sure if he's a guaranteed runner, so will need to look more closely during the week. The other one I'd be interested in is Alderwood, who could be one of the Fetival plot horses.
Selection: Lancetto @ 46
; probable bet on Alderwood @ SP
Pertemps Hurdle
The trends:
9 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 9 and they accounted for 31 of 40 places, though they have accounted for almost 77% of the total runners.
Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won 8 of last 9 and filled 29 of the last 36 places.
Horses officially rated 129 to 142 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 64.7% of the total runners & they have filled all 19 of 20 places in the past 5 years.
3 of 10 winners won last time out (6 of 7 others hadn’t won a race that season)
10 of 10 winners had their last run between 20 to 61 days ago
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 3 to 7 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 hurdles races
6 of 10 winner ran in 2 to 4 handicap hurdles (3 of 4 exceptions previously finished in first 6 in this)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won a Class 3 or higher hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
6 of 10 winners were NH bred
4 of 10 winners were rated 71 to 85 on the flat
Only 1 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham before (2 having first course start). Buena Vista, who had finished won or placed in this race in previous 2 seasons was only horse with course winning form.
Previous Festival form is not essential.
6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently
No massively significant trend with regard to prices though last 6 winners went between 14/1 & 20/1.
Beware of backing any horse at single-figure odds in this, as in the past 9 years only 3 of the 33 runners priced shorter than 10/1 have made the places.
I have not looked at the prominent racing angle yet (too many runners / too little time), but absent that, here are my rankings:
34 Top Of The Range6 5x 83%
39 Ely Brown61 80%
24 Battle Group47 80%
11 Sixty Something26 72%
9 Amigo26 72%
According To Trev39 71%
American Spin33 71%
32 Hada Men26 71%
30 Alpha Victor38 71%
18 Coole Avenue39 71%
31 Seymour Eric26 70%
19 Monetary Fund12 70%
38 Son Of Flicka61 69%
37 Captain Sunshine33 69%
16 Mister Dillon22 69%
Shutthefrontdoor36 66%
25 Art Professor35 66%
10 Storm Survivor15 65%
Medinas40 64%
Holywell61 64%
Jetson75 64%
26 Connectivity712 64%
23 Paint The Clouds517 64%
First Fandango58 63%
Double Ross40 63%
Pateese32 63%
Bakbenscher35 62%
Royal Reveille39 62%
12 Buachaill Alainn90 62%
Action Master77 61%
17 Kayf Aramis12 61%
7 Dolatulo33 61%
Hollow Tree40 60%
36 American Trilogy78 59%
20 The Tracey Shuffle21 59%
Sam Winner48 57%
14 Knight Pass22 55%
2 Medicinal Compound39 55%
28 Nagpur26 54%
1 Nampour78 54%
Bouggler26 53%
22 Return Spring23 53%
13 Counting House90 53%
3 Frontier Dancer98 53%
Berties Dream19 52%
33 Ardkilly Witness26 52%
29 Palace Jester7 52%
27 Hold On Julio26 52%
15 Blissful Moment19 50%
4 Kaylif Aramis19 50%
Ballybough Pat75 49%
Any Given Day28 47%
Dursey Sound61 46%
Close House78 46%
Junior33 45%
Stonemaster75 45%
35 Big Easy96 45%
8 Katkeau19 45%
21 Cockney Trucker6 44%
6 Acapulco18 42%
Catch Me39 36%
Fair Along104 29%
5 Blue Cannon6F 18%
The top 3 would make a nice shortlist, but no firm conclusions at this stage, so a shortlist only.
Top Of The Range 83% (17s)
Ely Brown 80% (20s)
Battle Group 80% (46s)
The trends:
9 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 9 and they accounted for 31 of 40 places, though they have accounted for almost 77% of the total runners.
Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won 8 of last 9 and filled 29 of the last 36 places.
Horses officially rated 129 to 142 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 64.7% of the total runners & they have filled all 19 of 20 places in the past 5 years.
3 of 10 winners won last time out (6 of 7 others hadn’t won a race that season)
10 of 10 winners had their last run between 20 to 61 days ago
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 3 to 7 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 hurdles races
6 of 10 winner ran in 2 to 4 handicap hurdles (3 of 4 exceptions previously finished in first 6 in this)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won a Class 3 or higher hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
6 of 10 winners were NH bred
4 of 10 winners were rated 71 to 85 on the flat
Only 1 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham before (2 having first course start). Buena Vista, who had finished won or placed in this race in previous 2 seasons was only horse with course winning form.
Previous Festival form is not essential.
6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently
No massively significant trend with regard to prices though last 6 winners went between 14/1 & 20/1.
Beware of backing any horse at single-figure odds in this, as in the past 9 years only 3 of the 33 runners priced shorter than 10/1 have made the places.
I have not looked at the prominent racing angle yet (too many runners / too little time), but absent that, here are my rankings:
34 Top Of The Range6 5x 83%
39 Ely Brown61 80%
24 Battle Group47 80%
11 Sixty Something26 72%
9 Amigo26 72%
According To Trev39 71%
American Spin33 71%
32 Hada Men26 71%
30 Alpha Victor38 71%
18 Coole Avenue39 71%
31 Seymour Eric26 70%
19 Monetary Fund12 70%
38 Son Of Flicka61 69%
37 Captain Sunshine33 69%
16 Mister Dillon22 69%
Shutthefrontdoor36 66%
25 Art Professor35 66%
10 Storm Survivor15 65%
Medinas40 64%
Holywell61 64%
Jetson75 64%
26 Connectivity712 64%
23 Paint The Clouds517 64%
First Fandango58 63%
Double Ross40 63%
Pateese32 63%
Bakbenscher35 62%
Royal Reveille39 62%
12 Buachaill Alainn90 62%
Action Master77 61%
17 Kayf Aramis12 61%
7 Dolatulo33 61%
Hollow Tree40 60%
36 American Trilogy78 59%
20 The Tracey Shuffle21 59%
Sam Winner48 57%
14 Knight Pass22 55%
2 Medicinal Compound39 55%
28 Nagpur26 54%
1 Nampour78 54%
Bouggler26 53%
22 Return Spring23 53%
13 Counting House90 53%
3 Frontier Dancer98 53%
Berties Dream19 52%
33 Ardkilly Witness26 52%
29 Palace Jester7 52%
27 Hold On Julio26 52%
15 Blissful Moment19 50%
4 Kaylif Aramis19 50%
Ballybough Pat75 49%
Any Given Day28 47%
Dursey Sound61 46%
Close House78 46%
Junior33 45%
Stonemaster75 45%
35 Big Easy96 45%
8 Katkeau19 45%
21 Cockney Trucker6 44%
6 Acapulco18 42%
Catch Me39 36%
Fair Along104 29%
5 Blue Cannon6F 18%
The top 3 would make a nice shortlist, but no firm conclusions at this stage, so a shortlist only.
Top Of The Range 83% (17s)
Ely Brown 80% (20s)
Battle Group 80% (46s)
Summary of bets (so far):
Tuesday
1:30 Champagne Fever @ 23; My Tent Or Yours @ 2.9-2.96
2:05 Simonsig @ SP
2:40 Duke Of Lucca @ 23; Cantlow @ SP
3:20 Hurricane Fly @ SP; Rock On Ruby @ 5.8
4:00 Arabella Boy @ 7-7.2
4:40 Quevega @ SP
5:15 The Druids Nephew @ 13.5
Wednesday
1:30 Godsmejudge @ 11.5-13.5; Hunters Lodge @ 150
2:05 Pont Alexandre @ 3.25
2:40 Super Duty @ 30; Boston Bob @ 5.3
3:20 Sprinter Sacre @ SP
4:00 Pendra @ 11
4:40 Bordoni @ 14; Zamdy Man @ 23
5:15 Purple Bay @ 44
Thursday
1:30 Dynaste @ SP
2:05 Top Of The Range @ 17.5
2:40 First Lieutenant @ SP
3:20 Reve De Sivola @ 5.2; Oscar Whisky @ SP
4:00 Undecided
4:40 Undecided
Friday
1:30 Far West @ SP
2:05 Undecided
2:40 At Fishers Cross @ 5.2
3:20 Sir Des Champs @ 5.1
4:00 Salsify @ 3.85; Creevytennant @ 100
4:40 Undecided
5:15 Lancetto @ 46; Alderwood @ SP
Good luck everyone!
Tuesday
1:30 Champagne Fever @ 23; My Tent Or Yours @ 2.9-2.96
2:05 Simonsig @ SP
2:40 Duke Of Lucca @ 23; Cantlow @ SP
3:20 Hurricane Fly @ SP; Rock On Ruby @ 5.8
4:00 Arabella Boy @ 7-7.2
4:40 Quevega @ SP
5:15 The Druids Nephew @ 13.5
Wednesday
1:30 Godsmejudge @ 11.5-13.5; Hunters Lodge @ 150
2:05 Pont Alexandre @ 3.25
2:40 Super Duty @ 30; Boston Bob @ 5.3
3:20 Sprinter Sacre @ SP
4:00 Pendra @ 11
4:40 Bordoni @ 14; Zamdy Man @ 23
5:15 Purple Bay @ 44
Thursday
1:30 Dynaste @ SP
2:05 Top Of The Range @ 17.5
2:40 First Lieutenant @ SP
3:20 Reve De Sivola @ 5.2; Oscar Whisky @ SP
4:00 Undecided
4:40 Undecided
Friday
1:30 Far West @ SP
2:05 Undecided
2:40 At Fishers Cross @ 5.2
3:20 Sir Des Champs @ 5.1
4:00 Salsify @ 3.85; Creevytennant @ 100
4:40 Undecided
5:15 Lancetto @ 46; Alderwood @ SP
Good luck everyone!
2 out of 2 - please keep it up for another 3 days so my life changing acca comes in
Think Golden Chieftan your top rated runner in the JLT.
Great start - well done JOCI!
Interesting to see other stats threads/sites.
The weighting applied to the trends appear to be equally (if not more) important than the trends themselves imo.
Interesting to see other stats threads/sites.
The weighting applied to the trends appear to be equally (if not more) important than the trends themselves imo.
Cheers, not a bad day today. Managed to get the first 5 winners, which was my best first day ever. That also included Champagne Fever @ 23 and even better Golden Chieftain, who came top of the ratings after the overnight declarations, came in at 36! Brilliant to see Hurricane Fly come back to form, and Quevega to battle back from a seemingly impossible position. For those of you who got my spreadsheet, then hope you managed to be on a couple of the winners. The trends even called the first 2 home in a couple of races. Let's not get carried away though, as tomorrow could be a completely different proposition.
JOCI , can you tell me why Drawn N Drank is so low in your ratings for the Hunt chase when he appears to tick nearly all the boxes ? thanks
Well done for yesterday Joci, wish I'd seen the thread then would have been top of the local Nap - oh well can't complain am still in second.
Selections look good for today as well the only one I'm not sure about is Boston Bob, he's a definite lay for me, although saying that I normally have at least one wrong a day so may well be that one.
Selections look good for today as well the only one I'm not sure about is Boston Bob, he's a definite lay for me, although saying that I normally have at least one wrong a day so may well be that one.
Another decent day today. Three winners, The New One was 100% rated, and a decent price at 6s. Then the machine, Sprinter Sacre at 1/4 and managed to find the winner of the Coral Cup, Medinas at 42/1 on the Tote (however I did back my top 5 rated in that race to spread my risk) and was concentrating on one of my other selections Ericht, when Medinas came from the clouds. Bit unlucky in the RSA as Boston Bob fell when in front at the last, but cannot be too greedy. Tomorrow I like Dynaste, Top of the Range, First Lieutenant, have backed both Reve de Sivola and Oscar Whisky, and Arabella Boy in the Cross Country. still working on the trends for the Byrne and Kim Muir, but beer getting in the way. Good luck tomorrow.
Mar 14, 2013 -- 12:45AM, JOCI Club wrote:
Another decent day today. Three winners, The New One was 100% rated, and a decent price at 6s. Then the machine, Sprinter Sacre at 1/4 and managed to find the winner of the Coral Cup, Medinas at 42/1 on the Tote (however I did back my top 5 rated in that race to spread my risk) and was concentrating on one of my other selections Ericht, when Medinas came from the clouds. Bit unlucky in the RSA as Boston Bob fell when in front at the last, but cannot be too greedy. Tomorrow I like Dynaste, Top of the Range, First Lieutenant, have backed both Reve de Sivola and Oscar Whisky, and Arabella Boy in the Cross Country. still working on the trends for the Byrne and Kim Muir, but beer getting in the way. Good luck tomorrow.
Was looking through this thread yesterday for Medinas race but couldnt see any write up. All I saw was your choices for yesterday where you only mentioned Pendra. Have you got a list of all the ratings for today?
hmmm... I dont see mention of The New One (supposedly 100% rated ?) or Medinas - what gives ?
1:30 Godsmejudge @ 11.5-13.5; Hunters Lodge @ 150 Grin
2:05 Pont Alexandre @ 3.25
2:40 Super Duty @ 30; Boston Bob @ 5.3
3:20 Sprinter Sacre @ SP
4:00 Pendra @ 11
4:40 Bordoni @ 14; Zamdy Man @ 23
5:15 Purple Bay @ 44
1:30 Godsmejudge @ 11.5-13.5; Hunters Lodge @ 150 Grin
2:05 Pont Alexandre @ 3.25
2:40 Super Duty @ 30; Boston Bob @ 5.3
3:20 Sprinter Sacre @ SP
4:00 Pendra @ 11
4:40 Bordoni @ 14; Zamdy Man @ 23
5:15 Purple Bay @ 44
Mar 14, 2013 -- 11:48AM, wallis wrote:
hmmm... I dont see mention of The New One (supposedly 100% rated ?) or Medinas - what gives ?1:30 Godsmejudge @ 11.5-13.5; Hunters Lodge @ 150 Grin2:05 Pont Alexandre @ 3.252:40 Super Duty @ 30; Boston Bob @ 5.33:20 Sprinter Sacre @ SP4:00 Pendra @ 114:40 Bordoni @ 14; Zamdy Man @ 235:15 Purple Bay @ 44
I might have it wrong but I was under the impression that the list there were his choices for the race and not the top rated choices which is what he is refering to above. E.g. he has chosen First Lieutenant today rather then Reve de Sivola. Although the ratings list did seem to be missing for that race yesterday.
Come on JOCI pull your finger out and get the last two ratings up for today
No winners on Thursday, and only a second place for First Lieutenant. The big handicaps had to wait til last minute due to time constraints of going through the large fields, but Medinas came out top rated and was backed on the day. The New One was top rated, but as I had a big fancy for Pont Alexandre, I ended up backing both. For tomorrow, we have 1:30 Far West 2:05 Undecided 2:40 At Fishers Cross 3:20 Sir Des Champs 4:00 Creevytennant and Salsify 4:40 and 5:15 Undecided. Good luck.
1:30 Far West 76%; Our Conor 74% - have backed both
2:05 Edgardo Sol 91%; Kings Lad 91%; Brampour 86%; Abbey Lane 86%; Dan Breen 84%; Ted Veale 84% - backed Edgardo Sol, Kings Lad and Ted Veale
2:40 At Fishers Cross 86%; African Gold 73% - main bet AFC and saver AG
3:20 Sir Des Champs 94%, Long Run 89%, Silviniaco Continue 83% - backed SDC and SC
4:00 Salsify 93%, Divine Intavention 90%' Creevytennant 89% - backed all three
4:40 No trends - Backed Gevrey Chambertain
5:15 Alderwood 78%, Benefficient 77%, His Excellency 76%, Tetlami 70% - backed all four
Good luck on final day.
2:05 Edgardo Sol 91%; Kings Lad 91%; Brampour 86%; Abbey Lane 86%; Dan Breen 84%; Ted Veale 84% - backed Edgardo Sol, Kings Lad and Ted Veale
2:40 At Fishers Cross 86%; African Gold 73% - main bet AFC and saver AG
3:20 Sir Des Champs 94%, Long Run 89%, Silviniaco Continue 83% - backed SDC and SC
4:00 Salsify 93%, Divine Intavention 90%' Creevytennant 89% - backed all three
4:40 No trends - Backed Gevrey Chambertain
5:15 Alderwood 78%, Benefficient 77%, His Excellency 76%, Tetlami 70% - backed all four
Good luck on final day.
ive been waiting for your county evaluation joci
Dan Breen 84% think i,ll side with this old dog
Dan Breen 84% think i,ll side with this old dog
Very well done, joci, and modest with it, great stuff and hope you won plenty.
Thanks. After a blank day Thursday (for some reason, usually a bad day for me), today was much better, with another five winners, making it my most successful Festival ever for winners.
The following obliged for me today:
Our Connor @ 5
Ted Veale @ 11.5
At Fishers Cross @ prices between 4.1 & 6.2
Salsify @ 3.85
Alderwood @ 6.8
I didn't actually benefit from the following, but the trends also pointed out:
(1) Far West & Our Connor as two top rated (finished 2nd / 1st)
(2) At Fishers Cross & African Gold as two top rated (finished 1st / 2nd)
(3) Salsify & Divine Intavention as two top rated (finished 1st / 2nd with exacta paying over 200)
Just missed out on the Placepot, with Gevrey Chambertain (in a non trends race) letting me down.
So, that made a total of 14 winners for the week (6,3,0,5), which far surpassed anything I've ever managed before.
The trends came up trumps this year!
The following obliged for me today:
Our Connor @ 5
Ted Veale @ 11.5
At Fishers Cross @ prices between 4.1 & 6.2
Salsify @ 3.85
Alderwood @ 6.8
I didn't actually benefit from the following, but the trends also pointed out:
(1) Far West & Our Connor as two top rated (finished 2nd / 1st)
(2) At Fishers Cross & African Gold as two top rated (finished 1st / 2nd)
(3) Salsify & Divine Intavention as two top rated (finished 1st / 2nd with exacta paying over 200)
Just missed out on the Placepot, with Gevrey Chambertain (in a non trends race) letting me down.
So, that made a total of 14 winners for the week (6,3,0,5), which far surpassed anything I've ever managed before.
The trends came up trumps this year!
that is an incredible return, well played
must be very satisfying piling hours into it and getting results like that
must be very satisfying piling hours into it and getting results like that
Was pleased it all worked out in the end, but realise it could so easily go the other way (as it did on Thursday). Another thing that was reinforced in my mind is that the trends can / should be used to narrow down the field to a manageable set of horses that are the most likely winners, then instinct and form study (especially keeping an eye on collateral form from horses that run well during the festival) shoould be used in the final selection process.
I missed Bobs Worth this week, despire everything suggesting he would run a very big race, especially his incredible record around the course. However, I deserted him, due to a number of factors like lack of recent run, relative inexperience, and lack of grade one win this season. That came back to bite me, so maybe need to be a bit more flexible in future.
One pleasing thing is that trend analysis often comes up with market leaders as selections (for obvious reasons), but it can also put you on to some less obvious, big price runners that have the capacity to perform well, but which the market might have overlooked e.g. Medinas, Golden Chieftain, Divine Intavention and others.
Will now have a bash at some of the key Aintree races using the same methodology, and see how it works out.
If anyone would like to see copies of the final spreadsheet for each day, drop me a message and I can forward you on copies.
I missed Bobs Worth this week, despire everything suggesting he would run a very big race, especially his incredible record around the course. However, I deserted him, due to a number of factors like lack of recent run, relative inexperience, and lack of grade one win this season. That came back to bite me, so maybe need to be a bit more flexible in future.
One pleasing thing is that trend analysis often comes up with market leaders as selections (for obvious reasons), but it can also put you on to some less obvious, big price runners that have the capacity to perform well, but which the market might have overlooked e.g. Medinas, Golden Chieftain, Divine Intavention and others.
Will now have a bash at some of the key Aintree races using the same methodology, and see how it works out.
If anyone would like to see copies of the final spreadsheet for each day, drop me a message and I can forward you on copies.
great work joci,was fun reading through the thread all week and im glad yer hard work payed off
Brilliant Joci. A lot of work put into this year. I'm not usually a trends man but you cant knock it. Good luck with Aintree. Also good to see people helping others to beat the 'enemy'.
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