Cheltenham Festival

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oufies pal
22 Feb 13 12:35
Date Joined: 15 Dec 04
| Topic/replies: 592 | Blogger: oufies pal's blog
What price do you guys and girls think this fellow will be at the off? Odds on or against?
Pause Switch to Standard View My Tent Or Yours what price on day?
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Report bellfunk February 22, 2013 12:37 PM GMT
Paddy will do some kind of offer in the morning but the horse will go off around the 5/6 mark.
Report Graeme83 February 22, 2013 12:40 PM GMT
Report oufies pal February 22, 2013 12:43 PM GMT
Poor race for favs to be fair. The PP offer will be interesting for sure.
Report alleged22 February 22, 2013 12:45 PM GMT
odds on defo imo, for the big players its pay the mortgage off
Report unclepuncle February 22, 2013 12:46 PM GMT
Definitely odds against imo - assuming the other main players all turn up.
Report IanD83 February 22, 2013 12:53 PM GMT

I'll be backing a few bigger priced ones e/w if they turn up. If chatterbox runs I'll be plowing in e/w. Trying to predict what Hendo is going to do is a waste of time!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 22, 2013 12:56 PM GMT
If the race does not cut up as giving for the introduction of the other novice race and which is possible, this year more than recently, and all the protagonists turn up, river maigue, un atout, melodic, etc, he will go off about 5/4 11/8 after probably being offered around the 7/4 - 2/1 area in the morning. If one or more don't turn up or run in the neptune, he will for sure be a 11/10 - 6/5 poke, with probably 3s or 10/3 jezki.

No chance he will be odds on!
Report unclepuncle February 22, 2013 1:01 PM GMT
Paddy will sure be going 'money back if your horse finishes 2nd to him'.
Report tyronesam February 22, 2013 1:06 PM GMT
reckon somebody might take a chance and go 2s
Report Deplasterer February 22, 2013 1:11 PM GMT
Def odds against & I would say no lower than 7/4, Jezki no slouch, I hope he ends up evs or so, means I'll be getting 9/2/5's on the winner.Wink
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 22, 2013 1:21 PM GMT
No chance he will be as big as 7/4 no chance he will be as low as evens given the nature of this race and his new rating compared to Jezkis. MTOY now thought of as improving champ hdl class, if that really is the case, and there are no reasons not to think it is with this horse, as no hype surrounding this unlike other supreme short fav's! Personally, given a clear round, he hoses up! Shocked 20/1 voucher too, yum yum Cool

And i am not being biased, honest!
Report Swagger February 22, 2013 1:25 PM GMT
Other horses are open to any amount of improvement as well - MTOY went up 12-13 lbs in his fourth hurdle race. I haven't bet on the race just saying that it's not like he was a 160+ hurdle horse early doors and on the day other horses will improve for better ground and a strong pace. He should win easily but he has to reproduce his last run (we don't know if he had a hard race on soft ground) and that others don't improve to a better standard (although highly unlikely if he runs his race). I think he will go off around 11/8 fav
Report Brooksielad February 22, 2013 2:16 PM GMT
I think he could go evs, tank of a hors.

20/1 Tent Single

100/1 supreme/champion hurdle 2014 double :)

Not to mention 20/1 tent going onto 4/1 Hurricane Fly, Conti 6/1, Oscar Whisky 7/1.

My festival will be make or break after the first race looool.
Report Brooksielad February 22, 2013 2:20 PM GMT
1800 on the back side at 2.6 ante post, Can't see him going off shorter than 5/4 at all.
Report Brooksielad February 22, 2013 2:21 PM GMT
Report Ramruma February 22, 2013 2:48 PM GMT
Depends if JP backs it but the JP factor might constrain the early show till satchel swingers are sure he's not.
Report maelduin February 22, 2013 7:50 PM GMT
He got a rating of 162. I don't recall a higher rated horse running in the Supreme before. Does anyone?
Report tomdeane February 22, 2013 7:57 PM GMT
13-8 for me!
Report bluebirdfan February 22, 2013 8:30 PM GMT
Report Far From Trouble February 22, 2013 8:32 PM GMT
think we'll see ome 9/4 in the morning tbh

goes off 11/8
Report TITCH 1 February 22, 2013 8:37 PM GMT
Gentlemen this is Cheltenham remember, 2-1 at least in the morning, who knows from there.
Report Mr Eboue February 22, 2013 8:38 PM GMT
There is very little chance he goes off odds on.

Maybe If Jezki is a non runner.

I think he'll go off at 6/4
Report Ramruma February 22, 2013 9:19 PM GMT
Prices of the last several jollies, with Dunguib the only odds-on shot:
7/2  Castle Sweep
2/1  Finnegan's Hollow
4/1  His Song
11/4  Cardinal Hill
5/4  Youlneverwalkalone
7/4  Like-A-Butterfly
3/1  Back In Front
7/2  Brave Inca
13/2  Marcel
5/2  Sweet Wake
2/1  Amaretto Rose
9/4  Cousin Vinny
4/5  Dunguib
7/4  Cue Card
6/1  Galileo's Choice
Report Mr Eboue February 22, 2013 9:21 PM GMT
Sweet wake.

The mere name sends shivers down my spine.

Report CVByrne February 22, 2013 9:26 PM GMT
Will go off 11/8

Will get 9/4 or 5/2 in the morning.

I've traded out of the bet totally on betfair @ 2.88 the other day. Will reinvest all profits at 9/4 or above dotr any shorter and not interested.

After all the best horse in the race rarely wins.
Report CVByrne February 22, 2013 9:30 PM GMT
FWIW I think he'll be beaten, too much hype after 1 slowly run handicap hurdle win.
Report alleged22 February 22, 2013 9:32 PM GMT
does he need to produce his best to win that would be my argument, he is so far ahead and the trainer thinks he will be even better on good ground, the bookies will not want to lay this horse imo, its like giving money away imho, the only way it doesnt go odds against is if there is stacks of irish money for one of theirs, but i doubt it...
Report CVByrne February 22, 2013 9:38 PM GMT
We hear it every year alleged, always an unbeatable horse in the supreme, always beaten.

What formlines does he have with his main rivals. Absolutely zero. Only mugs would back him at those odds.
Report TITCH 1 February 22, 2013 9:40 PM GMT
Will he need to run his best to win - yes
Will some books want to lay him - yes
Like giving money away ?

All about opinions, agree with CV there is a lot of hype attached but that's no different every year, some win, some don't.

You pays yer money you take yer chance, will generate alternative value that's for sure.
Report alleged22 February 22, 2013 9:43 PM GMT
i know we hear it every year CVB and ive never believed it till this year, what ive seen this year imo is very special, very special indeed!
Report jasey February 22, 2013 9:51 PM GMT
Smashed into odds on
Report Fallen Angel February 22, 2013 9:52 PM GMT
It's interesting to see the prices that horses have gone off at amazing considering his rating that Dunguib went off 5/6. I can see MOTY going off at the 6/4 or 5/4 mark. It depends very much of what you make of the betfair, if you think the rating is valid then he's a backable price at 7/4 if not you think he's a lay. I am of the opinion that he is the best horse in the race but he is probably short enough now considering that Jezki is open to plenty of improvement and there a number of other unexposed horses.

I am not sure that will stop the weight of money on the day though. He will look a standout on the race card and in the post on the day to occasional punters.
Report CVByrne February 22, 2013 9:52 PM GMT
You back it this year, I backed it Dunguibs year, someone else backed Cousin Vinny, someone else sweet wake etc..

End of the day, it's a crazy race where unreliable novices are expected to run as consistent as older horses.

MTOY has never even been to Cheltenham, he's never run in a fast run race, he's never gone up that hill.

He got an unmolested easy run on inside rail against handicappers lto. Will he get that against the best novices around?

End of the day no matter what anyone thinks, the fav of the Supreme is always overbet and always shorter than they should be.

We all learn our lessons. I was dead set on Darlan last year, he was the best horse in the race. He did not win.
Report alleged22 February 22, 2013 10:00 PM GMT
i was dead against it running in the champion as i thought my supreme money was done, then i thought, F*ck, im in big time on the fly and this guys gonna spoil the party, this is how highly i rate the horse CVB, if i get egg on me face so be it but as i say i think this ones a bit special
Report Brooksielad February 22, 2013 10:00 PM GMT
cv what did dunguib beat to justify him going off at 4/5 and what about Cousin Vinny at 9/4.mtoy has serious form he's the real deal, beat Taquin eaisly after pulling his head off all the way round, that horse has gone on to trounce good horses, Easter Day came out to frank that form. mtoy won a handicap off 149 on the bridle, a race in which Zarkandar off 2lb higher won all out. This years betfair hurdle was a very strong field, he made them all look very bad.
Report Ballydoyle February 22, 2013 10:06 PM GMT
stupid question. do you think ive got a ****g crystal ball in my hand???
Report Ballydoyle February 22, 2013 10:07 PM GMT
**** me...the standard of punter on here nowadays is either clueless or completely clueless and if it aint that it's "predict an SP in 3 weeks time" ...who gives a **** anyway??
Report Joist February 22, 2013 10:10 PM GMT
How on earth did Dunguib go off odds-on for the Supreme? And Galileo's Choice go off a favourite? Crazy
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 22, 2013 11:09 PM GMT
For what its worth, i think he is the real deal now after seeing that demolition job in one of the richest handicap hurdles of the season! Also, i would also like to add that i think it a myth that they go all out all the way round in the 'championship races' at the festival. There are many of these races run a sedate normal (ish) pace from early on.
I do, fwiw think he is the best horse in the race and also agree with the reality that the best horse in this actual race rarely wins. But that depends on what you perceive to be as the 'best' horse for that years supreme? Always that short priced jollyConfused
If thats the case, then we all agree that the jolly is always over hyped up in this, exactly what did Dunguib beat in the preps to warrant a sp of 4/5 and cousin vinny and so onConfused But with MTOY there is no hype. He is the one that has surprised us all imo! He has beat a subsequent grade 1 winner fto this season, lost to a stablemate at Xmas time to which we all (i think) agree that the stable could be accused of a little bit of cheating, if that word can be used to assume the stable lads and lasses were to get their xmas bonus's, i know that line was used at the time! He came out and subsequently demolished a half decent yard stick at Huntingdon before his amazing performance in one of the most competitive and richest handicap hurdles run on the Uk! There is certainly NO hype on this one the form is there for all to see and i for one when i backed him at 10/1 for this race before he was beat at xmas, (the horse that beat him has since come out and won a decent race couple weeks ago too) i went in again at 20s cos i have the feeling the yard certainly new what they were playing with from a long time before any of us public did, that he is a genuine grade 1 horse, being put away and 'hidden' for a tilt at the betfair hurdle, and then if all goes to plan a trip to Cheltenham for one of the novice races. I do think the rate of his improvement may have shocked them in the yard, but its sensible to go to the supreme and not the champion hurdle, he will win it.

HypeConfused I do not think so!
Report ACStafford February 22, 2013 11:15 PM GMT
As impressive as he was lto, I don't believe any horse should ever go off odds on for this race. 9/4 in the morning, 6/4 at off sounds about right to me.
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby February 22, 2013 11:24 PM GMT
He'll go off 7/4 imho and is a truly terrible price. He has won 2 novice hurdles a decent handicap of which the form is extremely hard to judge. Factor in as well, he has never run in a fast paced race and that his sire has had no notable jumps progeny and he is shocking value.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 22, 2013 11:34 PM GMT
Like i said, no hype, form for all to see, will hose up! Easiest winner of this race in living memory imo, as long as the track holds no barriers that is like!
I finding it pretty difficult to take the line decent handicap of which the form is extremely hard to judge however! Couple very good yardsticks in there, inc petit robin, and he destroyed them!
Def a myth that every race at the festival is fast paced from the outset, quite a few supremes etc run at normal pace early on!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 22, 2013 11:35 PM GMT
Just my personal opinion mind you, though like i also said, not biased having 10/1 and 20/1 vouchers in me pocket lol
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 22, 2013 11:35 PM GMT
Just saying it as i see it
Report Swagger February 22, 2013 11:41 PM GMT
The pace is a lottery as sometimes they go really fast and sometimes they go a sedate pace, just depends on the day. I didn't back Dunguib but think people are being a bit harsh. I agree he was too short a price but i do think he was slightly unlucky at how fast the ground was for the first race of the festival - if there was cut in the ground I think he would have won.
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby February 22, 2013 11:50 PM GMT
Just plucking the last few runnings out of the RP speed figures would show the race is nearly always run at a decent clip overall. Petit Robin has won 3 of 11 attempts over hurdles and would have no chance in a normal running of the supreme so imho, using that as a yard stick is iffy. Horse obviously has a decent chance in the supreme just not a 6/4 chance imho

Cinders and Ashes 149
Al Ferof  155
Menorah 144
Go Native   152
Captain Cee Bee   159
Report gnashersblackpool February 23, 2013 1:44 AM GMT
overhyped. flat track beast, who got a dream run in the race at newbury. assuming the next 5 in betting all turn up, we know the high street will enhance this price at 9am to 2/1 9/4 for 15 mins, before the course boys try and get it, before shortening ot up late on. sp wil lbe 6/4 area.
Report LINKS February 23, 2013 2:56 AM GMT
**** me...the standard of punter on here nowadays is either clueless or completely clueless and if it aint that it's "predict an SP in 3 weeks time" ...who gives a **** anyway??
And the standard of language is still the same out of the same old borning farts
Report Ballydoyle February 23, 2013 7:17 AM GMT
No wonder man...old?

What price do you think he'll be??well he's no gonna be 5/1 is he??

Ill have a wild guess and say between 11/8 and 7/4 for the mugs.yet another Henderson hyper in a supreme to play with
Report Angel Gabrial February 23, 2013 8:35 AM GMT
6/4 on the day. If the Betfair Hurdle had been run on good ground it would have been much closer between My Tent Or Yours and Cotton Mill.

Also AP had MTOY in a perfect position on the inside all through the race and slip streamed the leaders. I can see this horse wandering around a bit at Cheltenham, he still looks like he thinks about a few things. Not a mortgage job in my eyes.
Report roobuck February 23, 2013 9:29 AM GMT
Hope MTOY wins but current price is frankly ridiculous. No Graded victories to his name, 2nd fav is dual Grade 1 winner.

Who knows what he will be like at Cheltenham? Potentially the next 2/3 in betting will be Irish and that in itself may keep the price at 2/1
Report Joist February 23, 2013 10:54 AM GMT
Wishing I took overs on the amount of times STS would mention his "20/1 and 10/1 vouchers" Cry
Report Angel Gabrial February 23, 2013 10:57 AM GMT
On Official Ratings My Tent Or Yours is a shoe in but every year these bankers get turned over and something else improves and relishes conditions of that particular race.
Report robbo69 February 23, 2013 12:42 PM GMT
wont be less than 2-1 when the irish boys (and me) junp on Jezki
Report jasey February 23, 2013 12:50 PM GMT
I hope Jezki gets backed off the board, because he's my lay of the meeting
Report Graeme83 February 23, 2013 1:02 PM GMT
Why is that, Jasey ?
Report Angel Gabrial February 23, 2013 5:57 PM GMT
^^ Probably because of it`s mediocre course form on good ground in last years Bumper.
Report Graeme83 February 23, 2013 6:27 PM GMT
Probably not
Report Angel Gabrial February 23, 2013 6:29 PM GMT
why not?
Report Graeme83 February 23, 2013 6:38 PM GMT
I just don't think it's much of a marker because of his age and it was only a bumper. I think if someone was laying it would be more to do with lack of recent runs/Mc Coy/MTOY.
Report Graeme83 February 23, 2013 6:44 PM GMT
Bumpers can be un-reliable. He was a 4y/o and isn't a stayer, so he will be much stronger this time around. You have to be careful about makign assumptions with regards to the novices.
Report Angel Gabrial February 23, 2013 6:44 PM GMT
“I haven’t really talked to JP McManus’ racing manager Frank Berry yet but the horse was always going to have a bit of a break now and we’re basically now going to train him for Cheltenham and then Punchestown.”

Jessica Harrington
Report Angel Gabrial February 23, 2013 6:45 PM GMT
Course form at Cheltenham is a major pointer. Cheltenham is like marmite. Even for 4 year olds.
Report Graeme83 February 23, 2013 6:46 PM GMT
Fair enough. I don't like to put anyone off what they have in mind. I just throw in my 2 bobs worth then float into the background.
Report Angel Gabrial February 23, 2013 6:53 PM GMT
Your point is very valid Graeme. After all Cinders and Ashes did the business last year after being unplaced in the bumper and Jezki didn`t run a bad race in the bumper.

Perhaps i am being harsh on the horses chance.
Report oufies pal February 23, 2013 7:04 PM GMT
Another thing about Jeski and last years bumper the run came only ten days after his second leops bumper win. Short enough turn around to be fair. A big ask for a young horse.
Report andy85 February 23, 2013 9:03 PM GMT
He will be odds against for sure in such a large field and the bookies will try and get him beat.
Report Graeme83 February 23, 2013 9:12 PM GMT
**** the bookies. It's a field where you really need to have been on AP to have a preferential slant on the race. There are 2 miles speedsters all over the shot, and stayers growling if they don't get up the hill. It's a ****g swamp. But after drinking a few cold beers, the gambling world becomes clearer, and my ****g advice is who the **** cares about who ****g wins, because at the end of the ****g day, we all gamble at the click of a keyboard and the ****g bookies get held up with bananas, and when the bookies get held up with banans, i laugh and feel fruity.
Report Graeme83 February 23, 2013 9:13 PM GMT
I just read what i typed and i'm now digging myself like Macho Man Randy Savage. Oh yeah, dig it ?
Report Graeme83 February 23, 2013 9:26 PM GMT
Oh and in an un-related post, i should point out that SeatheStars post at the bottom of the first page of this thread was five stars. Posters should encourage that sort of in depth thought.
Report gnashersblackpool February 23, 2013 11:05 PM GMT
so who has a 20/1 and 10/1 voucher?
Report alleged22 February 23, 2013 11:06 PM GMT
fuukin loads matey Wink
Report Graeme83 February 24, 2013 12:29 AM GMT
I have never had a bet in my entire life
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby February 24, 2013 9:40 PM GMT
Dark Lover failed to frank the form today
Report Howdi February 24, 2013 9:49 PM GMT
if you think he'll be odds on you are mad!!!
Report Angel Gabrial February 24, 2013 10:11 PM GMT
Dark Lover failed to frank the form today

Upped in trip today. First attempt at 2.5 miles.
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