Cheltenham Festival
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What price do you guys and girls think this fellow will be at the off? Odds on or against?
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Paddy will do some kind of offer in the morning but the horse will go off around the 5/6 mark.
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6/4
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Poor race for favs to be fair. The PP offer will be interesting for sure.
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odds on defo imo, for the big players its pay the mortgage off
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Definitely odds against imo - assuming the other main players all turn up.
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6/4.
I'll be backing a few bigger priced ones e/w if they turn up. If chatterbox runs I'll be plowing in e/w. Trying to predict what Hendo is going to do is a waste of time! |
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If the race does not cut up as giving for the introduction of the other novice race and which is possible, this year more than recently, and all the protagonists turn up, river maigue, un atout, melodic, etc, he will go off about 5/4 11/8 after probably being offered around the 7/4 - 2/1 area in the morning. If one or more don't turn up or run in the neptune, he will for sure be a 11/10 - 6/5 poke, with probably 3s or 10/3 jezki.
No chance he will be odds on! |
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Paddy will sure be going 'money back if your horse finishes 2nd to him'.
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reckon somebody might take a chance and go 2s
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Def odds against & I would say no lower than 7/4, Jezki no slouch, I hope he ends up evs or so, means I'll be getting 9/2/5's on the winner.
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No chance he will be as big as 7/4 no chance he will be as low as evens given the nature of this race and his new rating compared to Jezkis. MTOY now thought of as improving champ hdl class, if that really is the case, and there are no reasons not to think it is with this horse, as no hype surrounding this unlike other supreme short fav's! Personally, given a clear round, he hoses up!
 20/1 voucher too, yum yum  And i am not being biased, honest! |
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Other horses are open to any amount of improvement as well - MTOY went up 12-13 lbs in his fourth hurdle race. I haven't bet on the race just saying that it's not like he was a 160+ hurdle horse early doors and on the day other horses will improve for better ground and a strong pace. He should win easily but he has to reproduce his last run (we don't know if he had a hard race on soft ground) and that others don't improve to a better standard (although highly unlikely if he runs his race). I think he will go off around 11/8 fav
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I think he could go evs, tank of a hors.
20/1 Tent Single 100/1 supreme/champion hurdle 2014 double :) Not to mention 20/1 tent going onto 4/1 Hurricane Fly, Conti 6/1, Oscar Whisky 7/1. My festival will be make or break after the first race looool. |
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1800 on the back side at 2.6 ante post, Can't see him going off shorter than 5/4 at all.
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bigger*
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Depends if JP backs it but the JP factor might constrain the early show till satchel swingers are sure he's not.
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He got a rating of 162. I don't recall a higher rated horse running in the Supreme before. Does anyone?
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13-8 for me!
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6/4
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think we'll see ome 9/4 in the morning tbh
goes off 11/8 |
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Gentlemen this is Cheltenham remember, 2-1 at least in the morning, who knows from there.
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There is very little chance he goes off odds on.
Maybe If Jezki is a non runner. I think he'll go off at 6/4 |
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Prices of the last several jollies, with Dunguib the only odds-on shot:
7/2 Castle Sweep 2/1 Finnegan's Hollow 4/1 His Song 11/4 Cardinal Hill 5/4 Youlneverwalkalone 7/4 Like-A-Butterfly 3/1 Back In Front 7/2 Brave Inca 13/2 Marcel 5/2 Sweet Wake 2/1 Amaretto Rose 9/4 Cousin Vinny 4/5 Dunguib 7/4 Cue Card 6/1 Galileo's Choice |
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Sweet wake.
The mere name sends shivers down my spine.  |
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Will go off 11/8
Will get 9/4 or 5/2 in the morning. I've traded out of the bet totally on betfair @ 2.88 the other day. Will reinvest all profits at 9/4 or above dotr any shorter and not interested. After all the best horse in the race rarely wins. |
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FWIW I think he'll be beaten, too much hype after 1 slowly run handicap hurdle win.
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does he need to produce his best to win that would be my argument, he is so far ahead and the trainer thinks he will be even better on good ground, the bookies will not want to lay this horse imo, its like giving money away imho, the only way it doesnt go odds against is if there is stacks of irish money for one of theirs, but i doubt it...
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We hear it every year alleged, always an unbeatable horse in the supreme, always beaten.
What formlines does he have with his main rivals. Absolutely zero. Only mugs would back him at those odds. |
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Will he need to run his best to win - yes
Will some books want to lay him - yes Like giving money away ? All about opinions, agree with CV there is a lot of hype attached but that's no different every year, some win, some don't. You pays yer money you take yer chance, will generate alternative value that's for sure. |
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i know we hear it every year CVB and ive never believed it till this year, what ive seen this year imo is very special, very special indeed!
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Smashed into odds on
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It's interesting to see the prices that horses have gone off at amazing considering his rating that Dunguib went off 5/6. I can see MOTY going off at the 6/4 or 5/4 mark. It depends very much of what you make of the betfair, if you think the rating is valid then he's a backable price at 7/4 if not you think he's a lay. I am of the opinion that he is the best horse in the race but he is probably short enough now considering that Jezki is open to plenty of improvement and there a number of other unexposed horses.
I am not sure that will stop the weight of money on the day though. He will look a standout on the race card and in the post on the day to occasional punters. |
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You back it this year, I backed it Dunguibs year, someone else backed Cousin Vinny, someone else sweet wake etc..
End of the day, it's a crazy race where unreliable novices are expected to run as consistent as older horses. MTOY has never even been to Cheltenham, he's never run in a fast run race, he's never gone up that hill. He got an unmolested easy run on inside rail against handicappers lto. Will he get that against the best novices around? End of the day no matter what anyone thinks, the fav of the Supreme is always overbet and always shorter than they should be. We all learn our lessons. I was dead set on Darlan last year, he was the best horse in the race. He did not win. |
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i was dead against it running in the champion as i thought my supreme money was done, then i thought, F*ck, im in big time on the fly and this guys gonna spoil the party, this is how highly i rate the horse CVB, if i get egg on me face so be it but as i say i think this ones a bit special
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cv what did dunguib beat to justify him going off at 4/5 and what about Cousin Vinny at 9/4.mtoy has serious form he's the real deal, beat Taquin eaisly after pulling his head off all the way round, that horse has gone on to trounce good horses, Easter Day came out to frank that form. mtoy won a handicap off 149 on the bridle, a race in which Zarkandar off 2lb higher won all out. This years betfair hurdle was a very strong field, he made them all look very bad.
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stupid question. do you think ive got a ****g crystal ball in my hand???
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**** me...the standard of punter on here nowadays is either clueless or completely clueless and if it aint that it's "predict an SP in 3 weeks time" ...who gives a **** anyway??
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How on earth did Dunguib go off odds-on for the Supreme? And Galileo's Choice go off a favourite?
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For what its worth, i think he is the real deal now after seeing that demolition job in one of the richest handicap hurdles of the season! Also, i would also like to add that i think it a myth that they go all out all the way round in the 'championship races' at the festival. There are many of these races run a sedate normal (ish) pace from early on.
I do, fwiw think he is the best horse in the race and also agree with the reality that the best horse in this actual race rarely wins. But that depends on what you perceive to be as the 'best' horse for that years supreme? Always that short priced jolly  If thats the case, then we all agree that the jolly is always over hyped up in this, exactly what did Dunguib beat in the preps to warrant a sp of 4/5 and cousin vinny and so on But with MTOY there is no hype. He is the one that has surprised us all imo! He has beat a subsequent grade 1 winner fto this season, lost to a stablemate at Xmas time to which we all (i think) agree that the stable could be accused of a little bit of cheating, if that word can be used to assume the stable lads and lasses were to get their xmas bonus's, i know that line was used at the time! He came out and subsequently demolished a half decent yard stick at Huntingdon before his amazing performance in one of the most competitive and richest handicap hurdles run on the Uk! There is certainly NO hype on this one the form is there for all to see and i for one when i backed him at 10/1 for this race before he was beat at xmas, (the horse that beat him has since come out and won a decent race couple weeks ago too) i went in again at 20s cos i have the feeling the yard certainly new what they were playing with from a long time before any of us public did, that he is a genuine grade 1 horse, being put away and 'hidden' for a tilt at the betfair hurdle, and then if all goes to plan a trip to Cheltenham for one of the novice races. I do think the rate of his improvement may have shocked them in the yard, but its sensible to go to the supreme and not the champion hurdle, he will win it.Hype I do not think so! |