Long Term Betting Strategies

Anything trained by Warren Greatrex or Charlie Mann

I will research any that get posted to see how they do

espesh in the championship races lack of a recent run is a worry unless your kauto star

that's not really a long term betting strategy but a warm feeling

want to try defining what you mean precisely? ta

not to back anything at the festival without good course form. cant quantify what good course form is, just something i look at on a case for case basis.

Never back at under 3-1 as the margins are too tight.

that's a personal golden rule of yours booster

there will be classes, groups and types of horse or race where it is profitable to bet lower than 3/1.

I'm interested in horse types & characteristics and race types and characteristics

but hanks for the contribution nevertheless

im not a stats man judo so was hoping you would have the answers in regards lay offs and championship races, its a pretty common stat that rsa winners run in the same calender year, supreme winners run within 40 odd days of the festival and looking back at the champion hurdle they (in recent years) all seem to have had a prep run, im hoping you can fill us in with regards the other races, i do feel it is a negative not to have run recently though unless you can shed any light

I will be doing a comprehensive thread for the Festival Alleged and will include all that stuff. Work already underway. Some can't be done til nearer the time. JOCI will be doing similar too, have already discussed it with him

I'd be interested to know where the profits are in betting at under 3-1, more from a laying than backing point of view.

I don't know because I don't look at it like that, I break it down into groups of horses, ages, race types etc... the odds comes after not before

my ideal race is where you have a 5 yo maiden odds on in a handicap

Not many of them but I understand.

Not backing anything trained by Warren Greatrex or Charlie Mann did make me laugh. Very profitable I'd imagine.

Bumper winners in the following years supreme. been some real shorties well & truly turned over. Only Montelado & Monsignor have completed the "double".

Good thread.

Dismiss Feltham winners in RSA
Don't like under 7yo in RSA
Only one Gold Cup winner has had less than 6 chase starts (Bobs Worth has had 5 incidentally)
Ex-Champion Hurdle contenders have a poor record in the World Hurdle
The Arkle winner is usually placed at least in next season's Champion Chase
Beware the favourite under 3-1 in the Supreme

Festival Bumper winners are probably regularly turned over at short odds next season from what I can recall.

good work fellas

Reynoldstown winners used to have a terrible record in the rSA Chae but placed horses very good. I think that was Gerald Delamere's favourite stat and did predict a few results at one time. Not sure about recently.

At the Festival i WONT back

Any horse priced @7-2 or Under
Any horse in a Handicap thats won a handicap in the current season unless its to get in the race(rating wise or switching from hurdles to chases)
ANYTHING in the X Country, Mares Hurdle, Bumper
Most horses that have spent the Winter winning small field events

I WILL back
Previous form from the Spring
Top Amateur Jocks
At least Two of Pipe's/O Neills in the hcaps
Previous course Hurdle winners over fences
stick to the top trainers or the Irish

sound thinking zilzal

Interesting thread judo.

Festival.
Do not back Irish hot-pots at the festival, no value whatsoever.
Back a second season chaser in the GC.
Back the highest rated hurdler in the Arkle.
Do not back anything with less than 15 runs under rules for the CHurdle.

Others
Back novices in hcp hurdles / chases.
Don't back anything with Strong Gale in the bloodline for the national.

Just actually had my 1st festival bet today, County Hurdle, Hisaabaat@33-1

Festival:

Do not back anything at under 3-1 unless it is at least 7lb clear of its rivals on official ratings.

Horses regularly run a few pounds below their best (for any number of reasons) and at the Festival you have stacks of horses trained to the minute that tend to show improved form on the day. So... the combination of those two means a horse should be well clear of its opposition to justify short odds in my opinion.

Rule 1: FLEXIBILITY. Using "Systems" and ruling out horses on this basis is the quick way to the poor house. Look at the form and ability of ALL runners.

And never ignore a horse that your visual impression/thoughts on the horse tell you is a horse to support, just because it doesn't fit into one of the trends boxes, if you fancy a horse that isn't a trend horse, don't sit there worrying where you've gone wrong to fancy such a horse, instead....BACK IT and be happy doing so.

Dont bet in the following races at the festival and youll lose less money. Cross country. Coral cup. Fred winter juvenile. Champion bumber.Kim muir.Martin pipe conditional jockeys.

concentrate on arkle,champion hurdle,neptune hurdle,rsa chase,queen mother,ryanair,world hurdle,triumph,albert bartlet,gold cup and if know your stuff you should come out on top. EASY !!

Handicaps are a goldmine

Hcaps yes get you good priced winners but very hard to come out on top in the long run.

clearly Diamond Joe did not get the point of the OP

thick feck

Novices and second season chasers in the National
Horses younger than 9yo and older than 12 yo in the National
11 years old and up at the Cheltenham Festival
5 yo in the Champion Hurdle
9 yo and up in the Arkle
Supreme Novice winners in the Champion Hurdle
Horses older than 10 yo in the Gold Cup
5 year old and up maidens on the flat
5 year olds and up that have never won a handicap in Turf handicaps
Odds on in a handicap   What a Goldmine these "Systems" must be

5 yo in the Champion Hurdle

How exactly does this make sense? Katchit won the Champion Hurdle as a 5yo and many horses have finished placed for each way purposes as 5yos (Punjabi, Binocular, Celestial Halo, Afsoun etc...) I would say a majority of these 5yos were complete no hopers anyway on the basis of form and nothing to do with their age Clerks choice, Jumbo Rio etc.....

can't be arsed if you can't even understand 'long term'

they all make huge long term level stakes losses

you're just a kid really aren't you? can't you understand the concept of level stakes losses?

never mind, you carry on being 'flexible'

thick as feck

Level stakes losses? Sure Backing all of Paul Nicholls runners give level stakes losses, do you scrub them form your shortlist too?

Do you back everything that matches your "System".

Explain the 5yo stat. The vast majority of 5yos who have ran in the Champion Hurdle are no hopers.
The ones who at least according to the market are expected to run well do so and have won from time to time.

Look at the year Istabraq won his 1st Champion.......only 3 5yos and ALL of them no hopers, one of them even trained by Pat Murphy FFS.

Anyway best of luck Judo

I'll explain the 5yo statistic,

1) it's a rough guide to experience, most 5yo lack the experience to win a CH. Katchit was absurdly experienced winner of the race.
2) They are physically not at their peak, but history is littered with placed 5yo who win the next year.

I'm nit as sweeping as discounting all 5yo but I expect 5yo to need to show a higher level of form in the easier trials as I don't expect them to improve for the fierce competitive pace of the CH. Like some older stronger more experienced horses.

I agree his system is a bit crude, but betting on trends and such is a good starting point. I couldn't workout handicaps when I started this game, took years of experience and learning from mistakes. Looking at winners of a race and going back through their form to see what clues were there to point me to them in future.

We all gotta start somewhere though. Mine was backing "tips" from a newspaper.

nalky
21 Feb 13 23:24   

Dont bet in the following races at the festival and youll lose less money. Cross country. Coral cup. Fred winter juvenile. Champion bumber.Kim muir.Martin pipe conditional jockeys.

Cross country & Bumper my two favourite races, esp xcountry, spot the difference

And never ignore a horse that your visual impression/thoughts on the horse tell you is a horse to support, just because it doesn't fit into one of the trends boxes

i concur with this sound bit of advice

The 5 yo in the Champion is a good stat and you would have avoided some short priced losers Kribensis at 5/4 for one, however we do have to be a little flexible with the stats. That is why Zarkander has an excellent chance this year, although my heart is with Countrywide Flame.

The Neptune Novice Hurdle on Wednesday, Henderson had a terrible record in this but then last year he had Simonsig who was clear of his opposition. 

Previous runners in the Gold Cup, I think there is only Kauto Star to have won after being beaten in the race in the last 18 years, before that it was The Fellow.

How about this for a strategy.

Given 99.9% of us are told what to do every day of our lives and Cheltenham is a great big joyous relief from the ordinary and the mundane and a bit of a chance to dream then ignore anyone telling you which races to bet in and which bets to have.

If you enjoy the thought of a life-changing win a thumping great Festival Goliath-win bet brings, then go for it with every fibre in your being and I hope you scoop the bloody lot

Rog Nice one

However, this is a forum about, err, Cheltenham 2013 where opinions are voiced, if no one said anything then it would be empty

I totally respect everyones opinion but don't agree. I think with the 5yo stat, you need to delve further. So many of these had no chance on form anyway. Of course you will have Losing Favs like Kribensis, Detroit City being another, but take DCity.....He didn't go a yard that day, he wasn't beaten just because he was 5. He was beaten because of an off day imho
Essex 9/1, Detroit City 6/4; Katchit 10/1; Celestial Halo 17/2; Binocular 6/4; Zaynar 15/2; Zarkandar 9/1.

Above is the list of horses since 2005 who are 5 and have started at 10/1 or less......You would have a level stakes profit backing them with one winner and 4 having placed. I don't think this record is any worse than the other age groups. One of them went on to win the Champion hurdle Binocular but imho, didn't improve from 5.

Indeed zilzal

...and that was mine.

Okay on a more serious note, there are clearly statistical trends, based on solid evidence, that are worth highlighting at Cheltenham

It just boils my p1ss when that topples over into recieved wisdom regarding what one should and shouldn't bet on (apart from - and I can't stress this enough -  not backing anything trained by Warren Greatrex and Charlie Mann )

Since 2005?

Try the same stats since 1975 and see how you get on Or the whole history of the race. That's the long term not the last 8 years. This is what it is about. And why are you focused on one in the list? It's not about the individual strategies, it's about the application of such strategies to improve punting success and the list in my opening post is far from comprehensive. They are just the ones that I recalled in about a minute when I was typing.

Just made me laugh that post about 'number 1 rule, FLEXIBILITY' which is the complete opposite of what this thread was about. This is about identifying ways to avoid placing bets that have a long established and proven losing record. This is a way to improve your punting. I wish I had a thousand of them because over the thousands of races I investigate for a bet every year they would help me avoid many bets with a losing long term expectation.

I have forgotten the times I've seen someone post 'I know this is one of those long term loser types BUT I really fancy this one so I am betting it anyway' only for it to lose. This is weak and undisciplined thinking.

Anyway, I doubt very much this is getting through

do you think racing hasnt changed since 1975 judo?

Joe Katchit won the Champion on his 13th start over hurdles. Which is the common amount of runs most Champion Hurdlers have when winning. He was even a lucky winner as Sizing Europe pulled back muscles when travelling all over them.

Countrywide Flame is very experienced for a 5yo, already had 11 hurdles starts along with plenty on the flat. So the horse has the experience Katchit had. Horse is just not good enough imv.

Also these 5yo running well one year like Punjabi and Binocular, then winning next year shows more improvement was to come.

This is delving deeper into the surface stat of 5yo have bad record.

Stats are a great framework not least because they encourage you to adopt a disciplined approach which involves analysis of the chances of every horse in the race.

I do occasionally deviate and back one on visual impression and opinion but equally I might be put off one on that basis who failed all the stats or reduce my stake if the horse failed on two or three stats.

Trends is actually a better word than stats because they do change over time.

In the likes of Coral Cup and County Hurdle, you can do both - back one on basis of opinion and one or two on basis of trends etc. Nothing wrong, imo, in backing 2 or occasionally three in races like that.

Countrywide Flame would be excluded by me in Champion Hurdle calculations because he is 5 (stats) and because he's unlikely to be good enough (opinion) - I might be interested in him in the County, his record in fields of 14 runners or more is 112 - the 2 in a 34 runner Cesarewitch (fact) and he just loves a scrap (opinion)

I would n't dream of knocking anybody else's betting strategy by the way - what works for me might not work for you and vice versa.

Hard work and trying to find a minority angle might be a common denominator though.

fecking pisses me off that you cannot get a proper discussion going without it turning into a '5yo in the CH' row. Should have left it out of the list ffs

this all started coz some guy put up a horse on the AW the other night as his nap. It was a 7yo and had never won a handicap. Long term horses like that make an enormous level stakes loss. In fact, they rarely win at all. So in terms of strategy, no matter how much you fancy it, no matter how good it looks on paper it is not a smart play to back it. As it turned out it was held up miles out the back and never put in the race. That guy could have saved that losing bet if he applied the 5 yo+ never won a handicap rule

Anyway, seems like I'm wasting my time.

Judricks Proper discussion = Calling people "Thick feck" and "Not getting through when they disagree"

Surely not wasting your time if you've sparked lively debate, not much fun if we all just said "Spot on, judo, that's horse racing sorted, let's move on to football"

When it comes to Cheltenham always be aware that the unexpected can happen at anytime.
Be open minded and treat ever horse in every race on its own merit.Irrespective of age,jockey,trainer.
If it goes in the ground,distance looks ok and is in good form,thats the main thing.
Dont be put off with the price,plenty of nice priced winners every year.
If you fancy a horse for a certain race,back it,and dont worry about any stats/trends that say it would be unusual for it to win.
Dont be afraid to back more than one horse in a race,you will enjoy it much more if you have more chance of winning,even if yer profit goes down a bit.
Not much of a strategy,but if someone new to the festival asked me,thats what i would tell them.
Its done me ok over the years,in particular since i started to have more than 1 runner in a race.

You're not wasting your time it's a good debate and some of us may learn something. Paul Jones book arrives early next week and since I have been getting that book 2007 I have had better Cheltenham, but because it has the top horses going I often have to back with my heart as well as head.

I think the way to look at Trends/Stats is to use them as an angle in to a race and you maybe avoid backing a loser.

My Tent Or Yours may well be the opening day banker yet this race is notably strong for the Irish and horses under 3/1 have a terrible record he is currently about 6/4.

budd I certainly agree about having more than 1 in a race, dreadful when you fancy a couple and you go for one and the other comes in.

Aren't Paul Jones' stats free already on ATR website?

Champion hurdle: only 6-8 yr olds. not the supreme winner, but placed horses considered 
World hurdle: never 5yos. never 10yr +,
RSA: never the feltham winner, but like horses that place in that race for the festival. look for horses rated 130 - 145 over hurdles, the  proper chaser type. Hurdlers rated over 145+ treat with caution, tend to be too short and over bet.
The Neptune: only consider the first four in the betting.
Bumper: just back willie mullins!
Choose four winners from last seasons festival to win a race. Doesnt have to be the same race. Level stakes profit to be made.
Arkle: discount horses that did not rate at least 140 over hurdles. 6-7 yr olds.
24 runner Handicaps: look closely at numbers 17 - 21. Especially foe Tricasts/Forecasts.

thou shalt not preach, would be my best piece of advice to anyone as regards betting strategy.

I think the one problem with these trends-based approaches is that it's too easy to assume people going against one would make level stakes losses because they would always do the same.

For example, the thread about Dynaste and the RSA has sparked a lively debate because Feltham winners, horses that have spent two seasons over hurdles before going chasing, and horses with long breaks all have very poor records in the RSA.

I don't necessarily think Dynaste wants to go as far as the RSA trip in a truly run race so I won't be backing him. However, for the sake of argument, let's say I do back him because I think he will win (basically ignoring the long-term trends). A lot of people would then think I'm a mug punter and would be a big level stakes loser, but because I have made the exception for Dynaste does not mean I backed Grands Crus, Time For Rupert and Punchestowns in seasons gone by.

In my opinion, those ignoring a trend do not necessarily back horses these trends suggest they shouldn't more than every once in a while. I appreciate the OP didn't want to get into the Champion Hurdle 5YO record here, but as another example, I have never backed a 5YO in the race. It wouldn't stop me doing so if I thought the 5YO in question was a likely winner, but I'd bet a lot of trends followers would assume I'd lost money on these types before because I've ignored the trend on this one occasion.

Stats or trends are something i rarely use as a punter. If u use them say as a way of eliminating contenders, a narrowing of the field then fair enough. They will always be broken by design though, u must be aware of that. The main issue i have with them is sample size, even if you go back say 40 years, this is still an awfully small sample size to be basing decisions on, let alone punting on.
A thorough knowledge of the form book allied to watching trainers traits is my approach as we are all creatures of habit !

never back trainers out of form going in to it, they will have had few winners to test   water in last 14 days.
and more important dont just look see many winners they had ,look at all there last runners see if there anything you fancied and run below par ,or something at big odds run way above par.
also if trainers start well in first day thats a sure  sign they are trained spot on for festival and not slightly over trained.