Cheltenham Festival
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Following a couple of conversations recently I thought I would post a few of my long term betting strategies and ask you to post yours. Hopefully you will get the gist from a few of the examples below. Some are 'empirical' and just based on experience and some are based on some work I did a few years ago when I trialed Raceform Interactive System Builder software.
I do not back these types:
Novices and second season chasers in the National
Horses younger than 9yo and older than 12 yo in the National
11 years old and up at the Cheltenham Festival
5 yo in the Champion Hurdle
9 yo and up in the Arkle
Supreme Novice winners in the Champion Hurdle
Horses older than 10 yo in the Gold Cup
5 year old and up maidens on the flat
5 year olds and up that have never won a handicap in Turf handicaps
Odds on in a handicap
Now of course there will be the odd exception from time to time but these are all proven long term losers so in terms of an approach to punting it makes sense, at least to me, to just leave them out.
What are yours? Be interested to add some more angles to my armoury.
I do not back these types:
Novices and second season chasers in the National
Horses younger than 9yo and older than 12 yo in the National
11 years old and up at the Cheltenham Festival
5 yo in the Champion Hurdle
9 yo and up in the Arkle
Supreme Novice winners in the Champion Hurdle
Horses older than 10 yo in the Gold Cup
5 year old and up maidens on the flat
5 year olds and up that have never won a handicap in Turf handicaps
Odds on in a handicap
Now of course there will be the odd exception from time to time but these are all proven long term losers so in terms of an approach to punting it makes sense, at least to me, to just leave them out.
What are yours? Be interested to add some more angles to my armoury.
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Anything trained by Warren Greatrex or Charlie Mann
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I will research any that get posted to see how they do
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espesh in the championship races lack of a recent run is a worry unless your kauto star
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that's not really a long term betting strategy but a warm feeling
want to try defining what you mean precisely? ta |
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not to back anything at the festival without good course form. cant quantify what good course form is, just something i look at on a case for case basis.
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Never back at under 3-1 as the margins are too tight.
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that's a personal golden rule of yours booster
there will be classes, groups and types of horse or race where it is profitable to bet lower than 3/1. I'm interested in horse types & characteristics and race types and characteristics but hanks for the contribution nevertheless |
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im not a stats man judo so was hoping you would have the answers in regards lay offs and championship races, its a pretty common stat that rsa winners run in the same calender year, supreme winners run within 40 odd days of the festival and looking back at the champion hurdle they (in recent years) all seem to have had a prep run, im hoping you can fill us in with regards the other races, i do feel it is a negative not to have run recently though unless you can shed any light
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I will be doing a comprehensive thread for the Festival Alleged and will include all that stuff. Work already underway. Some can't be done til nearer the time. JOCI will be doing similar too, have already discussed it with him
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I'd be interested to know where the profits are in betting at under 3-1, more from a laying than backing point of view.
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I don't know because I don't look at it like that, I break it down into groups of horses, ages, race types etc... the odds comes after not before
my ideal race is where you have a 5 yo maiden odds on in a handicap  |
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Not many of them but I understand.
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Not backing anything trained by Warren Greatrex or Charlie Mann did make me laugh. Very profitable I'd imagine.
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Bumper winners in the following years supreme. been some real shorties well & truly turned over. Only Montelado & Monsignor have completed the "double".
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Good thread.
Dismiss Feltham winners in RSA Don't like under 7yo in RSA Only one Gold Cup winner has had less than 6 chase starts (Bobs Worth has had 5 incidentally) Ex-Champion Hurdle contenders have a poor record in the World Hurdle The Arkle winner is usually placed at least in next season's Champion Chase Beware the favourite under 3-1 in the Supreme |
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Festival Bumper winners are probably regularly turned over at short odds next season from what I can recall.
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good work fellas
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Reynoldstown winners used to have a terrible record in the rSA Chae but placed horses very good. I think that was Gerald Delamere's favourite stat and did predict a few results at one time. Not sure about recently.
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At the Festival i WONT back
Any horse priced @7-2 or Under Any horse in a Handicap thats won a handicap in the current season unless its to get in the race(rating wise or switching from hurdles to chases) ANYTHING in the X Country, Mares Hurdle, Bumper Most horses that have spent the Winter winning small field events I WILL back Previous form from the Spring Top Amateur Jocks At least Two of Pipe's/O Neills in the hcaps Previous course Hurdle winners over fences stick to the top trainers or the Irish |
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sound thinking zilzal
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Interesting thread judo.
Festival. Do not back Irish hot-pots at the festival, no value whatsoever. Back a second season chaser in the GC. Back the highest rated hurdler in the Arkle. Do not back anything with less than 15 runs under rules for the CHurdle. Others Back novices in hcp hurdles / chases. Don't back anything with Strong Gale in the bloodline for the national. |
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Just actually had my 1st festival bet today, County Hurdle, Hisaabaat@33-1
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Festival:
Do not back anything at under 3-1 unless it is at least 7lb clear of its rivals on official ratings. Horses regularly run a few pounds below their best (for any number of reasons) and at the Festival you have stacks of horses trained to the minute that tend to show improved form on the day. So... the combination of those two means a horse should be well clear of its opposition to justify short odds in my opinion. |
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Rule 1: FLEXIBILITY. Using "Systems" and ruling out horses on this basis is the quick way to the poor house. Look at the form and ability of ALL runners.
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And never ignore a horse that your visual impression/thoughts on the horse tell you is a horse to support, just because it doesn't fit into one of the trends boxes, if you fancy a horse that isn't a trend horse, don't sit there worrying where you've gone wrong to fancy such a horse, instead....BACK IT and be happy doing so.
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Dont bet in the following races at the festival and youll lose less money. Cross country. Coral cup. Fred winter juvenile. Champion bumber.Kim muir.Martin pipe conditional jockeys.
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concentrate on arkle,champion hurdle,neptune hurdle,rsa chase,queen mother,ryanair,world hurdle,triumph,albert bartlet,gold cup and if know your stuff you should come out on top. EASY !!
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Handicaps are a goldmine
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Hcaps yes get you good priced winners but very hard to come out on top in the long run.
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clearly Diamond Joe did not get the point of the OP
thick feck |
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Novices and second season chasers in the National
Horses younger than 9yo and older than 12 yo in the National 11 years old and up at the Cheltenham Festival 5 yo in the Champion Hurdle 9 yo and up in the Arkle Supreme Novice winners in the Champion Hurdle Horses older than 10 yo in the Gold Cup 5 year old and up maidens on the flat 5 year olds and up that have never won a handicap in Turf handicaps Odds on in a handicap What a Goldmine these "Systems" must be  |
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5 yo in the Champion Hurdle
How exactly does this make sense? Katchit won the Champion Hurdle as a 5yo and many horses have finished placed for each way purposes as 5yos (Punjabi, Binocular, Celestial Halo, Afsoun etc...) I would say a majority of these 5yos were complete no hopers anyway on the basis of form and nothing to do with their age Clerks choice, Jumbo Rio etc..... |
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can't be arsed if you can't even understand 'long term'
they all make huge long term level stakes losses you're just a kid really aren't you? can't you understand the concept of level stakes losses? never mind, you carry on being 'flexible' thick as feck |
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Level stakes losses?
Sure Backing all of Paul Nicholls runners give level stakes losses, do you scrub them form your shortlist too? Do you back everything that matches your "System". Explain the 5yo stat. The vast majority of 5yos who have ran in the Champion Hurdle are no hopers. The ones who at least according to the market are expected to run well do so and have won from time to time. Look at the year Istabraq won his 1st Champion.......only 3 5yos and ALL of them no hopers, one of them even trained by Pat Murphy FFS. |
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Anyway best of luck Judo
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I'll explain the 5yo statistic,
1) it's a rough guide to experience, most 5yo lack the experience to win a CH. Katchit was absurdly experienced winner of the race. 2) They are physically not at their peak, but history is littered with placed 5yo who win the next year. I'm nit as sweeping as discounting all 5yo but I expect 5yo to need to show a higher level of form in the easier trials as I don't expect them to improve for the fierce competitive pace of the CH. Like some older stronger more experienced horses. I agree his system is a bit crude, but betting on trends and such is a good starting point. I couldn't workout handicaps when I started this game, took years of experience and learning from mistakes. Looking at winners of a race and going back through their form to see what clues were there to point me to them in future. We all gotta start somewhere though. Mine was backing "tips" from a newspaper. |
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nalky
21 Feb 13 23:24 Dont bet in the following races at the festival and youll lose less money. Cross country. Coral cup. Fred winter juvenile. Champion bumber.Kim muir.Martin pipe conditional jockeys. Cross country & Bumper my two favourite races, esp xcountry, spot the difference  |
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And never ignore a horse that your visual impression/thoughts on the horse tell you is a horse to support, just because it doesn't fit into one of the trends boxes
i concur with this sound bit of advice  |
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The 5 yo in the Champion is a good stat and you would have avoided some short priced losers Kribensis at 5/4 for one, however we do have to be a little flexible with the stats. That is why Zarkander has an excellent chance this year, although my heart is with Countrywide Flame.
The Neptune Novice Hurdle on Wednesday, Henderson had a terrible record in this but then last year he had Simonsig who was clear of his opposition. Previous runners in the Gold Cup, I think there is only Kauto Star to have won after being beaten in the race in the last 18 years, before that it was The Fellow. |