Rog Nice one

However, this is a forum about, err, Cheltenham 2013 where opinions are voiced, if no one said anything then it would be empty

Indeed zilzal

...and that was mine.

Since 2005?

Try the same stats since 1975 and see how you get on Or the whole history of the race. That's the long term not the last 8 years. This is what it is about. And why are you focused on one in the list? It's not about the individual strategies, it's about the application of such strategies to improve punting success and the list in my opening post is far from comprehensive. They are just the ones that I recalled in about a minute when I was typing.

Just made me laugh that post about 'number 1 rule, FLEXIBILITY' which is the complete opposite of what this thread was about. This is about identifying ways to avoid placing bets that have a long established and proven losing record. This is a way to improve your punting. I wish I had a thousand of them because over the thousands of races I investigate for a bet every year they would help me avoid many bets with a losing long term expectation.

I have forgotten the times I've seen someone post 'I know this is one of those long term loser types BUT I really fancy this one so I am betting it anyway' only for it to lose. This is weak and undisciplined thinking.

Anyway, I doubt very much this is getting through

Joe Katchit won the Champion on his 13th start over hurdles. Which is the common amount of runs most Champion Hurdlers have when winning. He was even a lucky winner as Sizing Europe pulled back muscles when travelling all over them.

Countrywide Flame is very experienced for a 5yo, already had 11 hurdles starts along with plenty on the flat. So the horse has the experience Katchit had. Horse is just not good enough imv.

Also these 5yo running well one year like Punjabi and Binocular, then winning next year shows more improvement was to come.

This is delving deeper into the surface stat of 5yo have bad record.

I would n't dream of knocking anybody else's betting strategy by the way - what works for me might not work for you and vice versa.

Hard work and trying to find a minority angle might be a common denominator though.

Judricks Proper discussion = Calling people "Thick feck" and "Not getting through when they disagree"

When it comes to Cheltenham always be aware that the unexpected can happen at anytime.
Be open minded and treat ever horse in every race on its own merit.Irrespective of age,jockey,trainer.
If it goes in the ground,distance looks ok and is in good form,thats the main thing.
Dont be put off with the price,plenty of nice priced winners every year.
If you fancy a horse for a certain race,back it,and dont worry about any stats/trends that say it would be unusual for it to win.
Dont be afraid to back more than one horse in a race,you will enjoy it much more if you have more chance of winning,even if yer profit goes down a bit.
Not much of a strategy,but if someone new to the festival asked me,thats what i would tell them.
Its done me ok over the years,in particular since i started to have more than 1 runner in a race.

budd I certainly agree about having more than 1 in a race, dreadful when you fancy a couple and you go for one and the other comes in.

Champion hurdle: only 6-8 yr olds. not the supreme winner, but placed horses considered 
World hurdle: never 5yos. never 10yr +,
RSA: never the feltham winner, but like horses that place in that race for the festival. look for horses rated 130 - 145 over hurdles, the  proper chaser type. Hurdlers rated over 145+ treat with caution, tend to be too short and over bet.
The Neptune: only consider the first four in the betting.
Bumper: just back willie mullins!
Choose four winners from last seasons festival to win a race. Doesnt have to be the same race. Level stakes profit to be made.
Arkle: discount horses that did not rate at least 140 over hurdles. 6-7 yr olds.
24 runner Handicaps: look closely at numbers 17 - 21. Especially foe Tricasts/Forecasts.

I think the one problem with these trends-based approaches is that it's too easy to assume people going against one would make level stakes losses because they would always do the same.

For example, the thread about Dynaste and the RSA has sparked a lively debate because Feltham winners, horses that have spent two seasons over hurdles before going chasing, and horses with long breaks all have very poor records in the RSA.

I don't necessarily think Dynaste wants to go as far as the RSA trip in a truly run race so I won't be backing him. However, for the sake of argument, let's say I do back him because I think he will win (basically ignoring the long-term trends). A lot of people would then think I'm a mug punter and would be a big level stakes loser, but because I have made the exception for Dynaste does not mean I backed Grands Crus, Time For Rupert and Punchestowns in seasons gone by.

In my opinion, those ignoring a trend do not necessarily back horses these trends suggest they shouldn't more than every once in a while. I appreciate the OP didn't want to get into the Champion Hurdle 5YO record here, but as another example, I have never backed a 5YO in the race. It wouldn't stop me doing so if I thought the 5YO in question was a likely winner, but I'd bet a lot of trends followers would assume I'd lost money on these types before because I've ignored the trend on this one occasion.

never back trainers out of form going in to it, they will have had few winners to test   water in last 14 days.
and more important dont just look see many winners they had ,look at all there last runners see if there anything you fancied and run below par ,or something at big odds run way above par.
also if trainers start well in first day thats a sure  sign they are trained spot on for festival and not slightly over trained.