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RYANAIR CHASE

Catch Me ifyoucan

13 Feb 13 16:16

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Date Joined: 09 Sep 03

| Topic/replies: 18,579 | Blogger: Catch Me ifyoucan's blog

Just 27 remain for this

P12/123- ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 12 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
234-F211 CALL THE POLICE (IRE) 10 DD Racing Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
3122-242 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8 Martin Boothright Martin Keighley
45041-5 CHINA ROCK (IRE) 10 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE
U212-15 CUE CARD 7 Jean Bishop Colin Tizzard
1/1211-4 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 10 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
23-4232 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
213-125 FOR NON STOP (IRE) 8 Potensis Limited & Chris Giles Nick Williams
460-133 GHIZAO (GER) 9 The Johnson & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls
1114-P3P GRANDS CRUS (FR) 8 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds III David Pipe
1/13-1106 HIDDEN CYCLONE (IRE) 8 Mrs A F Mee & David Mee John Hanlon IRE
5/6P00-1FP LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 11 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies
22211//4-5 MAIL DE BIEVRE (FR) 8 Patrick Atkinson Tom George
F314-313 MENORAH (IRE) 8 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
01//13P/4 MR GARDNER (IRE) 10 Richard & Lizzie Kelvin Hughes Polly Gundry
351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
F1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
21/11P-6 RIVERSIDE THEATRE 9 Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership Nicky Henderson
0-511112 ROI DU MEE (FR) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
2154-32 RUBI LIGHT (FR) 8 Bill Hennessy Robbie Hennessy IRE
1111-241 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
121-1111 SIZING EUROPE (IRE) 11 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE
224102-3 SOMERSBY (IRE) 9 Camilla Radford Mick Channon
1/35/1-50 TATANIANO (FR) 9 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe
345P-22P WALKON (FR) 8 McNeill Family Alan King
F25-2141 WISHFULL THINKING 10 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
2144U0- ZAYNAR (FR) 8 Men In Our Position David Pipe

Cue Card (5), First Lieutenant (6), Finians Rainbow (7), Sizing Europe (15/2), Riverside Theatre (10), Champion Court (14), Menorah (14), China Rock (20), For Non Stop (20), Grands Crus (20), Rubi Light (20), Call The Police (25), Somersby (25), Wishfull Thinking (25)

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Replies: 48

By:

Catch Me ifyoucan When: 13 Feb 13 18:42

© bland82 who looked at this race before using stats to help guide towards a selection (not everyones cup of tea) and listed these positive and negatives below.....

+ Ran well in the Paddy Power and or December Gold Cup.
+ Contested the King George.
+ Proven at this trip and further.

- Lack of solid Cheltenham form.
- Unfancied in the betting.
- Top rated on BHA figures.
- Peterborough Chase winner.
- Rated lower than 156.

By:

jasey When: 13 Feb 13 18:54

No stats to go on for this race m8,only been a grade 1 a few years,I think this years King George will be a negative for any race.

By:

Catch Me ifyoucan When: 13 Feb 13 18:58

2007 Taranis 6 11-0 R Walsh 9/2 (Paul Nicholls)
2008 Our Vic 10 11-10 T J Murphy 4-1 (D Pipe)
2009 Imperial Commander 8 11-10 P J Brennan 6/1 (N A Twiston-Davies)
2010 Albertas Run 9 11-10 A P McCoy 14/1 (Jonjo O'Neill)
2011 Albertas Run 10 11-10 A P McCoy 6/1 (Jonjo O'Neill)
2012
1st Riverside Theatre (GB) 11-10 Rated 168 SP 7/2fav Nicky Henderson B J Geraghty
2nd ½L Albertas Run (IRE) 11-10 Rated 168 SP 10/1 Jonjo O'Neill A P McCoy
3rd ½L Medermit (FR) 11-10 Rated 165 SP 8/1 A King R Thornton

By:

jasey When: 13 Feb 13 19:00

3 or 4 years a grade 1

By:

alleged22 When: 13 Feb 13 19:06

its always been contested by grade 1 chasers though

By:

jasey When: 13 Feb 13 19:09

Well i can't see past the first four in betting.
I am on FL @10s but Sizing Europe a classy horse

By:

alleged22 When: 13 Feb 13 19:16

its the hardest race of the festival to call imo at the moment bar the handicaps you could give a chance to 8 or 9 of them

By:

woodworm When: 13 Feb 13 19:17

Its a no bet race for me until we know the final decs/ground but Sizing Europe is the class horse and most likely winner imo.

By:

Catch Me ifyoucan When: 13 Feb 13 19:21

The Orish are yet to win this, being 0-24 so far.....

A strong challenge again this year with Sizing Europe (3 wins in Chelt), Rubi Light and possibly First Lieutenant (for sponsor Michael).

By:

Catch Me ifyoucan When: 13 Feb 13 19:28

Riverside Theatre - he's a really hard horse for me to summerise as we haven't seen him this season so far (runs at Ascot on Saturday) and his best form is on flatter tracks. He has however finished 2nd in a King George, jockey felt he stayed the trip, and that one piece of form is probably better than anything else in the race. He didn't look to handle the undulations at Cheltenham on the one occcasions he's ran here (fast finishing 5th in Sizing Europes Arkle) and on that basis l think l will bypass him.

By:

buddeliea When: 13 Feb 13 19:36

By:

alleged22 When: 13 Feb 13 19:41

course specialist

By:

Catch Me ifyoucan When: 13 Feb 13 19:46

The Ryanair was introduced to the Festival in 2005 as a Grade 2 chase over 2M 5F and became a Grade 1 chase in 2008.
This will be its 6th year as a Grade 1.

This seasons King George VI Chase (Grade 1) finishers fwiw....
1st Long Run Nicky Henderson Mr S Waley-Cohen
2nd nk Captain Chris P J Hobbs R Johnson
3rd 14L Grands Crus D E Pipe T Scudamore
4th 2 ½L Champion Court M Keighley A P Cawley
5th 3 ¼L Cue Card C L Tizzard J Tizzard
6th 7L Riverside Theatre Nicky Henderson B J Geraghty

By:

Makybe_Diva When: 13 Feb 13 21:19

China Rock

By:

Catch Me ifyoucan When: 14 Feb 13 15:42

Diva,
He has 23L to find with FL since the Lexus lto and god knows how many to find with Sizing (whom he beat in Oct.2010 in a Grade 3).
BofL.

By:

GoldCupWinner When: 14 Feb 13 18:28

Finians Rainbow for me in this one.

By:

Catch Me ifyoucan When: 14 Feb 13 18:39

Cue Card (5), First Lieutenant (11/2), Finians Rainbow (7), Sizing Europe (15/2), Riverside Theatre (10), Sir Des Champs (10), Champion Court (12), Menorah (14), China Rock (20), For Non Stop (20), Grands Crus (20), Rubi Light (20), Albertas Run (25), Call The Police (25), Somersby (25), Wishfull Thinking (25), Hidden Cyclone (33), Quel Esprit (33), Ghizao (40), Mail De Bievre (40)

By:

Catch Me ifyoucan When: 14 Feb 13 23:02

GoldCupWinner 14 Feb 13 18:28 Finians Rainbow for me in this one.

And what happens with last years winner !

Will FR wait for Aintee ?

2012 1st Riverside Theatre (GB) 11-10 Rated 168 SP 7/2fav Nicky Henderson B J Geraghty

By:

resner not lesnar When: 14 Feb 13 23:25

I'm fairly sure Michael Buckley has said before QM or GC, not interested in the Ryanair for Finians Rainbow

By:

GoldCupWinner When: 15 Feb 13 08:51

Not sure about RT and won't be backing him anywhere he goes after his last two runs. I guess I'd back Sizing Europe if Finians is absent even if it is slightly be default.

By:

GoldCupWinner When: 15 Feb 13 08:53

Unless Cue Card proves he says tomorrow that is!

By:

shockster When: 15 Feb 13 09:15

With so many doubts about participation here, I believe you have to bet on something you know will run all being well. So, ignoring their last runs I have gone for Champion Court 14/1 and For Non Stop 20/1 both EW. Must be a lot shorter come the day if as expected the race cuts up.

By:

booster When: 15 Feb 13 10:59

Sizing Europe hasn't looked anywhere near as good as he was and last year's Queen Mother was a desperate race by recent standards. I'd much rather have an up and coming horse like First Lieutenant or Menorah for this race.

By:

sintonian When: 15 Feb 13 12:14

Still think this is a dangerous race to bet in. Only 2 horses have this race confirmed as their target.

I'd side with FR if he runs well tomorrow, but it all depends what the owner wants to do.

By:

johntucker When: 15 Feb 13 12:19

First Lieutenant for me. Lots of others with ? beside their name on this season's running.

By:

roobuck When: 15 Feb 13 12:21

Agree lots of decisions to be made but if he runs, FL for me as well - dont care what else turns up.

By:

alleged22 When: 15 Feb 13 12:55

ive constantly said this race is the hardest to call not knowing who will turn up etc, still not entirely confident but i did have a small wager on FL earlier in the week, a few intended runners running at ascot this weekend so will watch that 1st before deciding if i put some more on FL or i see something that makes me think otherwise

By:

GoldCupWinner When: 15 Feb 13 16:04

I fancy Captain Chris to win tomorrow if the ground remains soft but still he wasn't good enough to win the race last year. Could be dangerous to overlook Alberta's Run. RT Hasn't looked the same since his hard race last year. Medermit is not in it this year and he was well ahead of the rest last year. Just have to guess how much ability he retains at 12.

By:

unclepuncle When: 15 Feb 13 16:08

There is £933 looking to get matched at 10.5 on Sizng Europe whereas there is only buttons trying to get matched on the QM - does that suggest the Ryanair is it's target? Seems a lot of money to want on a horse that might not run?

By:

Catch Me ifyoucan When: 20 Feb 13 15:07

Cue Card (4), First Lieutenant (11/2), Sizing Europe (7), Riverside Theatre (8), Champion Court (10), Menorah (12), Finians Rainbow (20), For Non Stop (20), Grands Crus (20)

Cue Card did it well at the weekend as is into 4's

By:

booster When: 20 Feb 13 15:28

Sizing Europe's form has been regressing since last spring and he's made hard work of beating some decent sorts in Ireland over the winter. I'd say this will take more winning than last year's Queen Mother and can't really see him still being good enough.

By:

Jump in the pool When: 20 Feb 13 17:04

Just keeping my eye on Ghizao here who stayed on well behind Cue Card and Captain Chris on Saturday, would look for the ground to be a bit firmer at the festival, but think it's a fair price. Can anyone see Ruby getting a ride on anything else if it goes?

By:

booster When: 20 Feb 13 17:05

Further franking of the Menorah form but not really a contender for the Ryanair.

By:

judorick When: 20 Feb 13 17:15

which in turn franks the Cue Card form. How exactly is Menorah going to make up the 22 lengths he was behind in the Arkle and the 34 lengths in the Haldon?

By:

booster When: 20 Feb 13 17:29

To start with, his jumping is clearly better now than it was last season. Secondly, Cue Card won't get an easy lead like he did last season and on Saturday. Thirdly, I think the ground will be better in March and that clearly helps him. Fourthly, the trip will be different. And possibly the most important is that he'll probably go for the Queen Mother so Menorah won't have to turn the form round. There are only 9 left in that and some trainers are going to look and see that there's a lot of place money for turning up in a race which may not have much depth apart from the favourite and you'll really need to see the Ryanair trip out to win.

As I said earlier in the thread, I'd rather have Menorah to place at similar odds for Cue Card to win.

By:

buddeliea When: 20 Feb 13 17:35

Well if they both turn up,Cue Card will beat Menorah i would think,hes a lot better horse.Well looks a lot better to me anyway,and their form albeit over shorter seems to imply that.
Cue Card stays 2m 4 ok,1 more furlong i think he will be ok too.

By:

duffy When: 20 Feb 13 17:40

Colin tizzards interview post race on saturday suggested that he's rather concerned with him running in the ryanair, he thought he never had much left to fight off captain chris with if needed, and that's coming from a usual optimist, I hope he runs in the queen mum for the good of the race, easy for me to say, but think that ther is a fair chance he will after listening to tizzard, ( he did also say that joe thought there was more there

, but added that joe always says that sort of thing)

By:

judorick When: 20 Feb 13 17:44

apart from Cue Card not turning up, none of what you say gives any hope that he can reverse the form and is riddled with assumptions. CC is better going left handed and on better going, there is nothing to say he has to have a soft lead at all. CC will run in the Ryan Air and unless accidents happen he will finish in front of Menorah (JT riding like a tit is an accident that could happen)

any other decision will be laughable

don't get me wrong I applaud your approach, looking for angles and value prices. Absolutely spot on. Just in this case, and it's only my opinion, Menorah has very little chance of beating CC. Of course, you do have that chance that they go mad and decide to turn up to play for second place in the QM for the easy money. I wouldn't hold my breath though.

Going to be fascinating, hope they all turn up

FWIW all this 'Cue Card doesn't stay' is complete bollox imo based on very little. The KG was a write off from the first fence and then what else is there to say he does not stay? Not much. I think he is going to do what Sizing Europe did when he won the QMCC '11

By:

roobuck When: 20 Feb 13 18:00

Of course, you do have that chance that they go mad and decide to turn up to play for second place in the QM for the easy money

Running for 2nd in Ryanair anyway - might a swell go for the better race