Cheltenham Festival
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Last years second and coming into the race in better form than last year.
Looks outstanding value to me. Can't see it being out of the top 3.
Looks outstanding value to me. Can't see it being out of the top 3.
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Backed him start of season and kinda give up on him,but actually i now think he will run a big race again.
Cant see him winning but i agree hes a place prospect. |
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I keep looking at his form and not backing him. Perhaps I'm looking too hard to justify my scepticism but perhaps The Giant Bolster is better fresh, in which case they should not have run him.
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Much deeper race this year. I see him running a big race but getting outstayed and ending up 5th or 6th.
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Well last year LR beat him easy prior to Cheltenham,so no reason why he can't do the same to Conti,and that may be good enough to place.
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Long Run was race hardened at Newbury last year when he whupped Bolster giving him weight and was arguably not right at Cheltenham. Conti by Nichols admission had quite a bit left to work on to prime him for the big day in a few weeks and still whupped him giving him weight. It isn't clutching at straws to think that something may happen to Conti on the day in terms of him not getting home etc but such was the way he put Bolster away you'd have to think there are several others who may have to run well below par for him to figure at the front this year.
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He does look like hes gearing up for another big run in the race to me.
I have doubts about a few of the fancied horses to be honest,SDC im not convinced at all will stay well enough.Long Run will stay but if it aint soft i can see TGB beating him again. Bobsworth i cant find anything to knock,hes the winner imo. FL another doubtful stayer that may not run anyway. SC,not sure about him either at Cheltenham. Would not surprise me one bit if TGB filled one of the places behind Bobsworth. Worth an e/w wager imo |
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What price is he that it's thought he's value at?
Not one i would have as a likely winner or as any sort of EW value unless he's 16s a place. |
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He's not one I'll be backing at the current prices, but 16s a place is crazy talk.
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Why?
What has he done to be anything shorter? All very well running well in these races but he hasnt been within 4 or 5 lengths of the winner. There is no such thing as good value for a horse that has no chance (i know im arguing against my 16s quote). This horse couldn't win what 'looks' a weak GC last year, this race is a much better bunch. |
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Thats up to each individual Robbo.
16 a place would be nice!! |
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Very true but it still wont place.
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not saying he will,but hes a chance,and thats where the price matters.
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Robbo,
hes up against horses that have question marks,well i think they have anyway. It may look a better race,but the day may prove otherwise,and hes one that could take advantage. |
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As you say the individuals choice!
My choice is he has no chance and therefore no value... |
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Fair enough mate.
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Definitely the value in the race. Top 3 in the betting never won over GC distance (3 mile 2.5 furlongs at Cheltenham is the ultimate test). He was a well beaten 4th to Long Run in last years Denman Chase. Hard to knock at 3x the price of LR. I'll have a little. glta
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Big price horses place in the GC....Fact.
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i sense another Diamond Harry situation with this Horse,Wouldn't win the GC if it started now,Will run a respectable race and finish around 6th or 7th having been backed into 3rd or 4th Fav
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Captain Chris will win this weekend, resulting in price dropping in gold cup. (20's) will surely place??
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not a great record left handed and never won at 3 miles
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it has more chance than TGB though....
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oh yes agreed!
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Cheltenham specialist IMHO
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Well comarisms with the hyped Diamond Harry are way off imo.
As for CC,i would be amazed if he finished in front of TGB in a Gold Cup. Dont like going left handed and a doubtful stayer.Bl00dy hard race lto in KG as well,and weve seen with Champion Court what that could do. Hes one that really looks to have a lot against him to me. Really think of the horses outside the likely winners TGB is easily the most likely to place. Been there and done it,beating LR fair and square in this race last year. |
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dont like goin left handed, but coped well enough to win an ARKLE
Bl00dy hard race lto in KG as well,and weve seen with Champion Court what that could do. Diferent horse to champion court and given longer off to cope with hard race doubtful stayer, did well enough to my mind in the KG on ground he would have hated captain chris needs to be ridden on the inside with horses on his outside imo, make sure he cant jump right, not taken out wide which is what they have done in the past at cheltenham |
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Captain Chris looks a non stayer to me. TGB is of more interest given his cheltenham form. Although I've looked at all the form prior and since last years race and I still can't fatho how Long Run didn't comfortablty beat this horse. Maybe it was the weight of my money weighing him down.
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which cheltenham form are you referring to GCW?
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GC 2nd, the 17 length handicap win. Has ran really well at Cheltenham when he has stayed upright.
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the handicap win proves nothing, that was off 145 and any number of Gold Cup contenders would have hacked up off that mark in that race
no, the only straw the Giant Bolster supporters have is last years Gold Cup how strong is that form? when you have answered that question then you will be able to decide |
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ahh the beating of poquelin off 10.3 , my reading of last years gold cup is like this either long run ran 10lbs lower than his mark or the horses in the top 6 all ran 10lbs above their mark, so imo id say the one horse disappointed rather than the 5 improved
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He still sees to save his best races for Cheltenham and if other fancied horses underperform again he would be most likely to run into a place from the outsiders. I can envision Captain Chris weakening from 3f out.
Long Run is the horse I can't figure out. He's arguably ran below his best 3/4 times at Cheltenham but then there is that GC win which makes it hard to completely rule him out. |
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horses that win the Gold Cup tend to win other races in between times and TGB simply does not win often enough to be considered a likely winner so there is little point in backing him for the win
as for place prospects, well, if one of the market leaders wins the race (BW, SDC, SC, LR) then he has to beat two of the others and I just don't see how that can happen. Yes, he scraped past LR last year and that is about the only positive there is. I rated the winner at 166 last year but I think it will take a performance around 175 to win this years race and I see no sign of TGB getting anywhere near that level of form anyway, we will see, as they say but for me he is a no hoper |
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I would agree with that. I'm not even backing hi but if any of the outsiders were going to place I would pick him. I'm backing S Conti e/w so akes no difference to me. I think he has already put up performances this year close to your mark. It's just the track which is unknown but taking that chance.
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yes I agree, the top 4 in the betting all look capable of a mid 170s performance, the question is which one is going to do it on the day? SDC for me, perfect profile, dual festival winner and sure to improve on better ground
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He still sees to save his best races for Cheltenham and if other fancied horses underperform again he would be most likely to run into a place from the outsiders. I can envision Captain Chris weakening from 3f out.
Spot on GCW. I really think an Arkle winner that supposedly stays 3m plus should do a lot better than he did in last years Ryanair.In that race he constantly jumped right handed and it cost him. If he does that over 3m 2 it will cost him even more. Alleged,maybe Long Run aint as good as you think mate. |
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Bud
Not a very good horse Long Run? Winner of 2 King Georges, 1st and 3rd in Gold Cup 2nd in 2 Betfair chases. When you fine a horse in the race that boosts this form please let me no what a good horse has to do?? |
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Hey,i never said he werent a good horse Robbo.Of course he is.
But its possible he aint as good as some think. And its possible he ran his race last year in the Gold Cup and his beating of ageing horses and non stayers is overly judged. Ive watched the GC last year a few times and he had every chance and no excuses on the day,and nothing wrong reported after the day. Yes,it may have been an off day,but since that race hes won the KG on a bog where only 1 other horse gave him a race at the end and that was a horse with absolutely no form at 3m. |
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this is often the case
people mistake achievement for performance level |
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dont get me wrong budd im not a LR fan and no way is he a 182 horse more like a 172 horse but to my mind he ran well below that last year which is why so the 160+ horses were all around him
with regards CC he is in much much better form this year and ive just watched last years ryanair again he gets tapped for toe and shuffled back to 9th at one point but stays on at the finish, that to me seems like he is a stayer |