Triumph Hurdle ( thoughts )

rolling star looked very good at cheltenham but if the ground dries up who knows what will prefer faster going

Rolling Star did look decent,only problem was Henderson mentioned he had few more to run so will wait as bit shot imo.

Diakali only one ive backed,was very impressed with him the other day.
Needs to settle better,but won despite that very easily.
Hopefully by March he will be travelling much better.

I expect Kashmire Peak to shrink in the Triumph betting when it impresses this Sunday.

I'll wait until the Adonis :)

The Adonis will be an important trial with a big bearing on the market. That looked an above average race last week at Cheltenham and I cannot see how the Nicholls horse could reverse the form. I have "invested" a few quid at 20s, the Nicholls, unseen so far, Lac Fontana. Wide open at this stage though

Blood Cotil has impressed me the most of those we've seen
Does anyone know anything about Mullin's unraced entry, something Du Noyer??

Bluebird Viconte Du Noyer owned by Potts, not entered in next week in Triumph,won 1/3 in France lto win April @ Auteuil Blood Cotil btn approx 5 lenghts,reversing previous run where Blood Cotil finished in front of him. Would need to have un pretty soon id imagine to turn at Cheltenham.

Would need to have Run

Sounds interesting; any of our Irish friends know anything more about him?

seen this before with Minsk...very well hyped but came out very late and did not get enough experience to do himself justice....now the horse has gone backwards terribly.....would love to know if there are plans for this horse but the market looks as though a run is not likely

whats the general feeling behind Swnymor?... it's tentatively on my mind at 16/1 at the moment for this open looking event.... he won't be having another run before the festival.

Favourites:Rolling Star (6), Far West (8), Blood Cotil (12), Diakali (12), Kashmir Peak (16), Our Conor (16), Swnymor (16), Irish Saint (20), LUnique (20), Lac Fontana (20), Caid Du Berlais (25), Hidden Justice (25), Ruacana (25), Sametegal (25), Alexandre Six (33),

Now got Blood Cotil backed with the VC offer,he runs this weekend and imo will either shorten or become a non runner.

If you aint seen his juvenile run as a 3yr old last year,have a look,cannot remember a more impressive jumping display from a 3yr old hurdler.

MTM,
Swnymor is another i like and am keeping an eye on him,16 aint a bad price imo.

Hope you are correct Budd has looked good so far,strange went from 10s to 12 with VC.

Yeh,i was quiet happy with that stevo.

Hes up against Diakali whose also mullins horse,and im thinking that depending what happens one of them wont be running in the Triumph.Ive already backed Diakali with the VC offer,and the plan is to have one running at a shorter price than i took and a free bet with the other.
Thats the plan,but we all now what can happen!!

Anyone have any views on Our Conor? Slick over hurdles and has won both starts to date, a good run this weekend and he has to enter the Triumph picture

Decent on soft going so far like all Irish challengers so far, whoever wins Saturday will be close to the top of market for sure. Personally think Blood Cotil maybe a bit classier.

As far as I know Diakali goes straight to Cheltenham, I'd say Blood Cotil will go too.

does the NRFB offer stand in the VDbet offices?

Bet Victor Nr free bet all races.

I backed Caid Du Berlais at 33's after his run at Chepstow at Christmas. Got a bit outpaced but I liked the way he finished the race. He runs this week in the Betfair Hurdle, but do get the feeling he won't line up in the Triumph, perhaps the Fred Winter.

Hidden Justice at a price for me

Do we think both of these Mullins horses will run tomorrow in the Spring Juvenile?

Blood Cotil should run with Diakali coming out.

Gassin Golf w+p NRNB

Blarney both declared to run at present.

I see that but would not see the point of running these two against each other this close to the festival.

yep, seen they're both still booked with no confirmed jockey booking, so figure one will come out.

*still entered

interesting one from paul nicholls running tomorrow LAC FONTANA

Townend is on Diakali, E Mullins Blood Cotil

Okay, quite fancy the Hughes horse to win in Ireland.

I was really impressed with Our Conor today. He destroyed decent oppo and has a nice flat pedigree for the better ground. Taken the plunge at 7/1, think he should 2/3 points shorter.

buddeliea
06 Feb 13 18:42
Hes up against Diakali whose also mullins horse,and im thinking that depending what happens one of them wont be running in the Triumph.Ive already backed Diakali with the VC offer,and the plan is to have one running at a shorter price than i took and a free bet with the other.
Thats the plan,but we all now what can happen!!

Yep,we all know what can happen!!!!
So now what,will i have 2 non runners and 2 free bets?? Think likely Mullins will still run one of them,probably Diakali,but cannot see him reversing with Our Conor on what i saw yesterday.

i agree having backed dalkali yesterday and for the triumph , i think he'll really have his work cut out to turn that form around , our conor was very impressive....

Far West matched at 19

for £0 strange...

Far west nicholls always said his best triumph horse. Good turn of foot against river mague today

Our Conor gonna smash him

Our Conor gonna smash him

Sintonian

Look at the trends you ave to go back to 2002 since an Irish horse won the triumph.

don't really care for the trends that much tbh.

Unaccompanied went pretty close two years ago behind Zarkander.

what would worry me with our conor is the only time he has run on ground with good in the going description he ran poorly

Our Conor's run on good ground was on debut when he was 33/1 and never put in the race. Subsequently, he won on yielding ground. I think a more relevant question would be what has Far West achieved on good ground?

i dont think either will win so the question is irrelevant

it is relevant if he is 5/1 fav.

who do you like alleged?

the money is down sint  i like rolling star, but i was also taken with lac fontana,s debut the other day so took a punt at 20-1 will be less than half that when it wins the adonis

one of my fav races of the festival as it bring such unknowns into one race and really relies on the jockey to make the right moves.  i got involved in blood cotil a few weeks ago on the day he was gambled antepost. despite his poor run in very heavy ground i think he can show a lot of improvement should the ground go good, good to soft come the festival. As an each way selection goes i like him a fancy prices.

of note should be that given the owners of blood cotil Ruby may be obliged to ride blood cotil rather than other Mullins horse

I don't think Ruby will feel obliged to run anyones horse. If he gets the choice, which he does the majority of times, he will go for the one he thinks has the best chance.

He might not feel obliged, but the Ricci's might tell him to ride Blood Cotil or lose the rest of their rides, a la Buckley and Geraghty with Spirit Son

Nah. He gets the pick. I doubt they would givve him an ultimatum. If you thought he didn't have a choice they you would take the prices on CF for the Supreme.

he does get the pick in fairness but sometimes he does feel obliged, will depend on how Pont Alexender and Avirka leg are sent up. i think if both are in good form and all goes well ruby can do as he pleases but if not he might need to take the ride. but thats my speculation.

Yeah, maybe he juggles them around when he thinks whatever he  choses won't win anyway, to balance the contentment amongst owners/trainers.

I agree with Sintonian. Our Conor looks a classy horse as a speciman, he travels like a dream, finds off the bridle and stays well, his hurdling is improving in every race and he quickens - there isn't much to dislike about him. I think he will actually improve on good ground being sired by Jeremy, he is very much the horse to beat in my opinion. I also like Rolling Star, he has the course form and he won nicely. Boring as they are the top 2 in the market but stats aside I think Our Conor will hack up - I hope the money continues for the Nicholls horse as Our Conor might drift on the day

No doubt in my mind that Ruby will ride the Nicholls horse, Ruby won't see a reason why either of the Mullins horses will reverse form with Our Conor so he will be on Far West in my opinion

i think the ground drying out will be a factor changer. Young horses that have won on heavy might not have the toe for good ground. I have been very impressed it Our Conor so far but i can see others cathcing up with him on better ground.

You never know until they race on it I suppose but given his flat breeding i'd be surprised if he did not handle it. Connections are pretty adamant it is what he wants, for what it's worth.

DMCK - It is a good point you make and i think it will prove to be very relevant to the festival as a whole. I just get the impression that Our Conor is a quality horse and I think he could even improve on better ground - his last win wasn't run in a time that was too slow given the going description either. I would say it could be more relevant to a horse like Far West who i don't think has quickened yet and there is more chance he might not be fast enough for good ground given his breeding, but that is obviously unproven to date

If you look at all the best horses and the favourites, they all pretty much go on any ground. I wouldn't be too worried about Our Connor on better going. I think he will be fine because he quickens well when asked. He deserves to be up there in the market.

I like Swnymor, was going to win fairly easy last time up, the PN horse ran well for a very long time in the betfair hurdle and ruacana didn't disgrace in Ireland.

Not bad value imo.

On Swynmor he was gonna win but it wasn't going to be easy, he'd have prob won by a few lengths from Ruacana, a horse thumped by Our Conor on his next start.

Also on a line through Feb Thirstyfirst, Rolling Star is clear of Swynmor too.

So tbh he's of no interest to me.

Lac Fontana ran a blinder behind Chatterbox the other week. Think if he wins the Adonis he'll go shorter than his current 20/1 some e/w value there atm.

Lac Fontana will definitely be shorter but I am happy to see him win first. It looked as if he was tapped for speed at Newbury and although the winner is very good (if he went to Cheltenham could easily run a place) he was conceding plenty of weight and did win very comfortably. You would think both first and second would improve for a stronger pace.

16lb he was receiving, some of that is the 4yo allowance but it's still a fair wedge. PFN can get a bundle of improve from his but usually they're ready fto.

Fancy Rolling Star for this now big time,form give boost last weekend,open to improvement and strong on trends as well.
Will be having some more of 5s best price now,on at 6s on here, think will start Fav on day imo.

Nice to see Dessie Hughes have two winners at Thurles today.

Pricewise doing Triumph next Tuesday, any ideas? Imo dont think he will look beyond front 3 in market,selection Rolling Star?

He rarely tips favourites. The front three are all vying for favouritism.

I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for Swynymor (if he runs) or perhaps Stocktons Wing. There are any number big prices he could pick in this race really

Hi - pricewise is a big fan of far west and our connor with prefernce for far west - might go a 2pt on far west.
good luck

Sint, Swynmor disappointing lto though not given a tough ride,can see past Rolling Star with yours big danger may save on him on day. Good luck with your selections and enjoy mate!

Swynmor was poor agree,would not back him myself, it's just rare he tips a favourite. I guess in this instance the front three are 9/2 co-favourites so he could well tip in that context, but equally he may go for something at double figures.

I'd doubt he'd tip Our Conor when there are NJH and PFN horses in oppo.

Clearly losing the plot as thought I had already posted on this thread.

Anyway really respect the front 3 of the market, cannot really find one to back with conviction against them. Missed all the prices so wouldn't want to choose one between them really.

PW wont choose one of them, fairly sure of that. My idea of a PW type of bet would be Lac Fontana who I have had a small interest in e/w. Obviously hasn't yet lived up to the ability the stable thought he has but is one that surely is going to be far better suited by the demand of Triumph run at a decent clip. 33/1 isn't necessarily overpriced for what he has actually achieved but still being aimed at the race so with the ammo the stable's disposal, not the worst bet imo

Good luck to those on at decent prices on the front 3

I've only got 7/1 on OC Roo. Nothing to shout about really when several others have 16s and 25s.

What will be going all blue later on Oddschecker, re pricewise selection tomorrow in Post. think he will go for Rolling Star 5/1 best price.

Don't think he'll choose from the head of the market, not his style. If he does I think he would really fancy it.

Not sure where he'll go but if for some strange reason he doesn't copy me I'd suggest Kashmir Peak.

yep Kashmir Peak for last years winner trainer or maybe Stocktons Wing who has close form with Our Conor and was reportedly held-up before that run.

I'm guessing Hidden Justice

vasco du ronceray nrnb Stanjames/totesport 25/1

I'm thinking Hidden Justice as well

So it looks like he has copied me after all - I wish he'd chose his own 

Irish have a poor record in the race,looks between Rolling Star and Far West,Hidden Justice might grab a place...

Our Conor best horse in the race.Simples.

Try my best,it looks like you are going to go through the card, well done and congrats.

cheers m8.Never been more confident.

The Irish record in the race doesn't matter a jot. These synthetic phoneys are beginning to ruin threads and lead people astray. It's getting out of hand.

It basically comes down to whether the horse in question is good enough. Sometimes stats & trends can indicate whether a horse has been prepared correctly, but in the case of Our Conor I think we can see he has. It's just depends if he is good enough to prove it.

Btw, last night on the Twitter Q&A with Mullins, he said he didn't think Diakali would reverse the form. But today Ruby says in an interview that Willie has told him he thinks he can. Ar5ses & elbows.

Personally could not give a toss whether hes Irish or not,his form looks bl00dy good for this race,thats the main thing.Diakali and Blood Cotil looked pretty good to me before OC smashed them.
May not win the race of course,but the fact hes trained in Ireland wont be the reason imo.

Rolling Star looks good.
Really took the eye when beating Irish Saint at Cheltenham in January.
He is a long striding horse with bags of scope for improvement as Henderson had not done a lot with him before his first run in the UK.
Took a couple of blows during the race.
My only concern was would he be as effective on better ground?
They anticipate an extreme weather front arriving at Cheltenham by next Weds however so the ground concerns may not be an issue by the time the Triumph is run next Friday.

Job done Inchcalloch.Hope you took notice.

That's one for the synthetics scrap book.

Most pleasing result of the entire week.