Cheltenham Festival
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Triumph Hurdle ( thoughts )
Triumph Hurdle ( thoughts )
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Replies: 91
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Our Conor gonna smash him
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Sintonian
Look at the trends you ave to go back to 2002 since an Irish horse won the triumph. |
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don't really care for the trends that much tbh.
Unaccompanied went pretty close two years ago behind Zarkander. |
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what would worry me with our conor is the only time he has run on ground with good in the going description he ran poorly
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Our Conor's run on good ground was on debut when he was 33/1 and never put in the race. Subsequently, he won on yielding ground. I think a more relevant question would be what has Far West achieved on good ground?
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i dont think either will win so the question is irrelevant
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it is relevant if he is 5/1 fav.
who do you like alleged? |
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the money is down sint i like rolling star, but i was also taken with lac fontana,s debut the other day so took a punt at 20-1 will be less than half that when it wins the adonis
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one of my fav races of the festival as it bring such unknowns into one race and really relies on the jockey to make the right moves. i got involved in blood cotil a few weeks ago on the day he was gambled antepost. despite his poor run in very heavy ground i think he can show a lot of improvement should the ground go good, good to soft come the festival. As an each way selection goes i like him a fancy prices.
of note should be that given the owners of blood cotil Ruby may be obliged to ride blood cotil rather than other Mullins horse |
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I don't think Ruby will feel obliged to run anyones horse. If he gets the choice, which he does the majority of times, he will go for the one he thinks has the best chance.
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He might not feel obliged, but the Ricci's might tell him to ride Blood Cotil or lose the rest of their rides, a la Buckley and Geraghty with Spirit Son
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Nah. He gets the pick. I doubt they would givve him an ultimatum. If you thought he didn't have a choice they you would take the prices on CF for the Supreme.
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he does get the pick in fairness but sometimes he does feel obliged, will depend on how Pont Alexender and Avirka leg are sent up. i think if both are in good form and all goes well ruby can do as he pleases but if not he might need to take the ride. but thats my speculation.
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Yeah, maybe he juggles them around when he thinks whatever he choses won't win anyway, to balance the contentment amongst owners/trainers.
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I agree with Sintonian. Our Conor looks a classy horse as a speciman, he travels like a dream, finds off the bridle and stays well, his hurdling is improving in every race and he quickens - there isn't much to dislike about him. I think he will actually improve on good ground being sired by Jeremy, he is very much the horse to beat in my opinion. I also like Rolling Star, he has the course form and he won nicely. Boring as they are the top 2 in the market but stats aside I think Our Conor will hack up - I hope the money continues for the Nicholls horse as Our Conor might drift on the day
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No doubt in my mind that Ruby will ride the Nicholls horse, Ruby won't see a reason why either of the Mullins horses will reverse form with Our Conor so he will be on Far West in my opinion
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i think the ground drying out will be a factor changer. Young horses that have won on heavy might not have the toe for good ground. I have been very impressed it Our Conor so far but i can see others cathcing up with him on better ground.
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You never know until they race on it I suppose but given his flat breeding i'd be surprised if he did not handle it. Connections are pretty adamant it is what he wants, for what it's worth.
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DMCK - It is a good point you make and i think it will prove to be very relevant to the festival as a whole. I just get the impression that Our Conor is a quality horse and I think he could even improve on better ground - his last win wasn't run in a time that was too slow given the going description either. I would say it could be more relevant to a horse like Far West who i don't think has quickened yet and there is more chance he might not be fast enough for good ground given his breeding, but that is obviously unproven to date
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If you look at all the best horses and the favourites, they all pretty much go on any ground. I wouldn't be too worried about Our Connor on better going. I think he will be fine because he quickens well when asked. He deserves to be up there in the market.
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I like Swnymor, was going to win fairly easy last time up, the PN horse ran well for a very long time in the betfair hurdle and ruacana didn't disgrace in Ireland.
Not bad value imo. |
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On Swynmor he was gonna win but it wasn't going to be easy, he'd have prob won by a few lengths from Ruacana, a horse thumped by Our Conor on his next start.
Also on a line through Feb Thirstyfirst, Rolling Star is clear of Swynmor too. So tbh he's of no interest to me. Lac Fontana ran a blinder behind Chatterbox the other week. Think if he wins the Adonis he'll go shorter than his current 20/1 some e/w value there atm. |
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Lac Fontana will definitely be shorter but I am happy to see him win first. It looked as if he was tapped for speed at Newbury and although the winner is very good (if he went to Cheltenham could easily run a place) he was conceding plenty of weight and did win very comfortably. You would think both first and second would improve for a stronger pace.
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16lb he was receiving, some of that is the 4yo allowance but it's still a fair wedge. PFN can get a bundle of improve from his but usually they're ready fto.
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Fancy Rolling Star for this now big time,form give boost last weekend,open to improvement and strong on trends as well.
Will be having some more of 5s best price now,on at 6s on here, think will start Fav on day imo. |
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Nice to see Dessie Hughes have two winners at Thurles today.
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Pricewise doing Triumph next Tuesday, any ideas? Imo dont think he will look beyond front 3 in market,selection Rolling Star?
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He rarely tips favourites. The front three are all vying for favouritism.
I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for Swynymor (if he runs) or perhaps Stocktons Wing. There are any number big prices he could pick in this race really |
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Hi - pricewise is a big fan of far west and our connor with prefernce for far west - might go a 2pt on far west.
good luck |
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Sint, Swynmor disappointing lto though not given a tough ride,can see past Rolling Star with yours big danger may save on him on day. Good luck with your selections and enjoy mate!
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Swynmor was poor agree,would not back him myself, it's just rare he tips a favourite. I guess in this instance the front three are 9/2 co-favourites so he could well tip in that context, but equally he may go for something at double figures.
I'd doubt he'd tip Our Conor when there are NJH and PFN horses in oppo. |
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Clearly losing the plot as thought I had already posted on this thread.
Anyway really respect the front 3 of the market, cannot really find one to back with conviction against them. Missed all the prices so wouldn't want to choose one between them really. PW wont choose one of them, fairly sure of that. My idea of a PW type of bet would be Lac Fontana who I have had a small interest in e/w. Obviously hasn't yet lived up to the ability the stable thought he has but is one that surely is going to be far better suited by the demand of Triumph run at a decent clip. 33/1 isn't necessarily overpriced for what he has actually achieved but still being aimed at the race so with the ammo the stable's disposal, not the worst bet imo Good luck to those on at decent prices on the front 3 |
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I've only got 7/1 on OC Roo. Nothing to shout about really when several others have 16s and 25s.
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What will be going all blue later on Oddschecker, re pricewise selection tomorrow in Post. think he will go for Rolling Star 5/1 best price.
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Don't think he'll choose from the head of the market, not his style. If he does I think he would really fancy it.
Not sure where he'll go but if for some strange reason he doesn't copy me I'd suggest Kashmir Peak. |
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yep Kashmir Peak for last years winner trainer or maybe Stocktons Wing who has close form with Our Conor and was reportedly held-up before that run.
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I'm guessing Hidden Justice
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vasco du ronceray nrnb Stanjames/totesport 25/1
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I'm thinking Hidden Justice as well
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So it looks like he has copied me after all - I wish he'd chose his own
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