metcheck-cheltenham weather watch

All changing by the day. Looked yesterday on metcheck and they were forecasting over 12mm on Sunday - now a dry day.

lord knows now

What is the current state of the ground? I listened to an interview with Claisse on timeform radio last week where he agreed that the ground would need less rain than usual to turn, interesting to hear what he thinks with just over a week left. Looks to me rain forecast every day 5mm on sunday according to the review I just had a peek at.

In a press release issued last Wednesday, Claisse said that the prevailing going of 'soft, good to soft in places' would switch to 'good to soft, soft in places' after another 5 or 6 days without any rain. It is also going to be a very drying day tomorrow - sunny with temperatures in the mid teens. He also stated that if the forecast 15-18mm of rain arrives before the meeting, then he would expect the going to start 'soft' though it looks like Sunday and Monday are now going to be largely dry.

hmm my lay of soft going looking overly generous now.

Official going now "good to soft" with more drying days to come. Some rain later in the week but wouldn't expect it to amount to very much.

umm,good to soft with some rain to come.
Given he said it would not take too much for it to turn soft,this could really go either way,depending on how much we will get,as pretty much has been clear for some time.
No wonder connections are waiting till late,and who can blame them.

good ole british weather

As of 3.15 today both courses now good to soft.

Check it yourself here - http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html

Really warm and sunny day tommorrow forecasted...then dry on Wednesday...then we'll see !

I think it will be better that we get some rainfall so that Claisse doesn't water. Some forecasts have quite a bit if rain in the actual week and if that comes in top of watered ground it could be horrible and less predictable than genuine soft ground.

yes I prefer naturally soft to watered drying out so will take some rain even though I'm on good ground horses mainly

I've really tried to keep an open mind this year over the ground with my AP bets and so as a result they have been smaller in number.

Look at metcheck's forecast for Saturday

it wasnt like that earlier, hope this weather doesnt materialise

got a link?

The point is come tomorrow they could be forecasting a dry day!

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/7days.asp?zipcode=cheltenham

Get your money on heavy! Hopefully that's no accurate

no wiser

I'd already worked that out

wet a finger and hold it up in the air

earlier it said about 8mm rain to the festival now its saying 14mm+ for just the saturday

if we were 3 weeks away from the festival i wouldnt blink, but 7 days away its time to take notice....

ok so one really wet day and the rest not much

accept that if it prevents Claisse turning on the taps

I just did as instructed and its a westerly = rain

and approx 13 mm on the other days its saying now matey

Judo if Saturday they get 14mm it'll be very soft - and there is other rain forecast. But no rain yet actually fallen

completely lost now, although soft will do me on Tuesday, but want it dry by Friday

If the rain comes as forecast on Sat, it will be very soft on Tues and won't be good on Friday. It's taken 3 weeks to get it back to good to soft

Forecast has changed several times in the last 48 hours. We'll have a much better idea of what we are likely to get on Saturday by Thursday. For the time being, no rain due before Wednesday PM, by which stage the ground will be verging on 'good'.

well I'm going to top up on Zark, Melodic and At Fishers Cross

Not going to top up on Zark, enough exposure on him. May now back Melodic, makes sense as a back up to MTOY. If it comes should persuade Pipe to send Dynaste to Jewson and hopefully owners of Captain Conan will realise their best chance of a win is actually in the Arkle.

Hmm latest stick reading 6.1, quite a way from the mid 7s we had at last years festival, gets into the 5s then we're into real soft ground territory

Metcheck forecast for Cheltenham week is appalling: snow and freezing temperatures. The forecast for 2 or 3 days away is changing by the hour though, so it'll probably have 20 degrees for next week by tomorrow.

they seem to have removed the 15mm dowsing at the weekend now

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/7days.asp?zipcode=#.UTU9SaI1CSo

They seem to have increased the Friday night rainfall though.

right! it's the same volume but starts Friday afternoon and persists til Saturday lunch time then pretty much just cold and dry til the end of the festival

I work as an agronomist and look for accurate forecasts .Metcheck is possibly the least accurate. Trying to predict rain more than 4 days ahead is unreliable. So reading on here people backing for 7 days time based on the going is poor judgment.

I agree that the changes have been so big and quickly it gives the impression of being clueless. one thing seems consistent though is that some rain is coming?

So which site is more accurate have you found?

And from what you know, do they need to put frost covers down?

And in your experience and naturally interest in racing, what rainfall may be required to change the going?

This site seems pretty good and detailed.

http://www.myweather2.com/Horse-Racing/United-Kingdom/Cheltenham-Racecourse.aspx?sday=7

Light patchy rain from Wednesday to Sunday (all depends what hits the course with it's unique little microclimate, but can't see it drying to good or going heavy) and then really cold next week - down to -4 at night.

Getting bizarrely obsessive at looking at metcheck now  - laughing at myself as well as the website.

Anyway now says 12mm Friday, 21mm Saturday, 6mm Sunday

I find weather.com is generally nearer the mark

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Cheltenham+UKXX0032:1:UK

No more than a 60% chance of rain any day according to them.....

Listened to the local forecast from the Bristol Weather Centre about 40 minutes ago.

Dull wet and windy for the next few days. Drizzle mostly with heavier rain over the higher ground. Stark contrast to today which will be sunny and warm with temperature of up to 14 degrees!

Don't think Claisse will be watering (he will be disappointed) and the quickest ground we can anticipate is 'good to soft'. Might be 'soft' by the start of the meeting. Presumably we will get an update from the course later in the week. Last press release relating to the ground/weather was last Wednesday.

keep the local stuff coming - appreciate your efforts here festivalfanatic

sabetudo 05 Mar 13 05:17 Joined: 13 Feb 05 | Topic/replies: 94 | Blogger: sabetudo's blog
I work as an agronomist and look for accurate forecasts .Metcheck is possibly the least accurate. Trying to predict rain more than 4 days ahead is unreliable. So reading on here people backing for 7 days time based on the going is poor judgment.

garbage

I mentioned 3 horses which I have already backed heavily (Melodic Rendezvous, Zarkandar & At Fishers Cross) even though I have been anticipating good to soft at the softest and their best form is on soft. I am therefore increasing my stakes now as there is a very good chance the ground will end up softer than I initially expected, and certainly will not be faster, and if that is the case then all of those horses chances will be significantly increased and their prices should then drop meaning I could lay off my additional exposure and increase my average odds

so far from poor judgement, it is pure logic as I am in no worse position if the rain does not arrive (exactly the same that I expected when I started backing them) and a potentially better one if it does

IT'S on the way, the six-million dollar question is how much of it arrives.

Rain forecast for Cheltenham is due in town on Wednesday and if the maximum amount does come, the official going for the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle on Tuesday may yet be soft, clerk of the course Simon Claisse said on Tuesday.

The racecourse and surrounding areas were bathed in early spring sunshine on Tuesday, and after assessing the course Claisse said: "It has dri ed out a bit today on the Old and New courses, chases and hurdles and is good to soft, good in places.

"The cross-country course is good to soft, soft in places. We've been dry for nearly three weeks but starting tomorrow we are expecting rain, between 12-15 millimetres, into Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

"If we get the upper end of the rain forecast, it could still end up as soft going."

is there much rain falling in cheltenham today???

the biggest concern will be the covers going down on damp ground ( which is the likely scenario come sunday im afraid ) that will only serve to produce that horrid tacky muck we had had to endure many times this season already.. maybe the batton has been handed over to the sluggers again.

Does anyone know what would be the contingency plan used should any days racing be lost due to the predicted freezing temperatures next week?

9.30am - Going remains Good to soft, good in places after 2mm of rain overnight.

Much more rain expected today Roger?? Im hoping for a couple of dry days to encourage Pipe to go for Sun All with Dynaste.

I've come to the conclusion that metcheck must randomly generated, or someone's having a laugh with it. They've just changed the projected rain on Saturday from about 30mm to 0mm. I need to stop looking at it constantly, but I can't seem to help myself!

A vile day today.

Grey skies. Sporadic rainfall. Nothing too heavy just constant drizzle really.

Good to Soft all over

THEY SHOULD HAVE THE RACING IN THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST FOR CHRIST SAKE.

WE CAN ALL WEAR SHORTS AND T SHIRTS AND SIP ON COCKTAILS ALL AFTERNOON.

Joking aside if you are going wear a decent coat and a bobble hat.

The last thing you want to be doing up there is freezing your bollux off cause your trendy jacket is a flimsy little cotton piece.

soft all round as of now.

duffy
08 Mar 13 13:50

soft all round as of now.

Where did you get that info Duffy?

RUK now, andy clifton is on there and saying they've had 3 mils this morning in a sharp burst, still drizzling, he says claisse will walk the course this afternoon and he'll change it to soft, he also says that due to the forecast, it is unlikely it will get any quicker before the first day.

Head of Comms at Chelts just said it on Racing UK

Thanks - lets hope it stays that way.

There's a fair chance that the whole course could be under covers before much longer isn't there.

Soft ground is total dream scenario for me, bar Dodging Bullets.

Sorry CVB but weren't you going on about that Cheltenham would be good ground, March the driest month of the year and you would build your AP bets around traditional festival ground? And yet now soft ground is perfect for your portfolio?

i think he might mean the fly roo as he was the likely winner on g/s but is a shoe in on soft imo

May be, I know he likes the Fly. But that's one horse and one race - still gets beat by Zark anyway!

Precious little precipitation due before the off. 3 basically dry days but not drying conditions. This could be a very close call - soft, g/s in places, or the other way round.

Whatever, the ground is in great condition and it won't be desperately slow.

"Given the forecast I would say it's now not going to get any quicker than soft for the start of the meeting"

This is what Claisse himself is saying this afternoon yet amazingly you can still get matched at 4/5 on here for soft ground.

still raining here lads

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8549908/soft-going-for-start-of-festival

So at about 2.00pm on Friday it's reported that it will almost certainly be soft for the start of the meeting, and the going was soft with near heavy patches on the cross country track when they walked the course (which must have been before 2.30 as that was when it was reported). It then continued to rain for several hours after that?
Yet still good to soft is being backed on here and soft is still available at over 4/5?
Please explain?

5.7 on Turftrax at 4.15pm Friday, soft all round (5.1 on Cross Country).

Doesn't look to be anymore rain forecast as things stand so perhaps that's why uncle

covers due to go on sunday so what you have then is what you will get come tuesday. soft sticky shoite , at least for the first two days.. god knows what it will be come thoursday on the other track

I'd rather have "soft sticky shoite" than an abondonment.  It is what it is and for once Claisse cannot be blamed.  Given the winter (and summer before that) it's no great surprise.

No need to be unduly pessemistic about the ground. It has been rolled and spiked and the grass has been growing. It is also fresh ground on both courses. It will be slow but a much better racing surface than the horses have encountered for most of the last few months.

dont like the look of bbc's forecast for monday (1m 40s in to the video forecast thing)

.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Looks like nags might need their best snow shoes on

Indeed it probably will ff but it will be quite a way off the traditional festival ground - an even greater emphasis on stamina

cheltenham will be fine if that forecast is correct, the snow doesnt look like it will reach as far north as cheltenham (i hope!)

CHELTENHAM clerk of the course Simon Claisse on Saturday issued a confident prediction that the 2013 Festival will both start and end on soft ground as he spoke from a track that has been protected by frost covers in advance of the sport's most prestigious meeting for the first time.

Following a further 2mm of rain through Friday night, Cheltenham on Saturday remained soft on all tracks, including the Old course, used for the festival's opening two days and which has been completely covered in porous blankets.

Claisse said: "Based on the current forecast, my expectation is that the meeting will start on soft ground and I think we will still be predominantly soft on Friday, when there might also be some good to soft places.

Now pretty much official - so nice when a plan comes together

Decent day in Cheltenham today. Little bit wet early but dry since about noon. Ground won't be any slower than it was yesterday and maybe a tad quicker.

will be beautiful jumping ground

Hi Rick

Sending something to your inbox.

So all those posts saying it always drains well,no chance of soft,he will get his watering can out etc etc etc.
And simply ignoring the weather and what it had done to the ground.
Hope yoy boys were careful with yer bets!!

Budd for all that its a better festival on decent ground, I cannot help smiling at what has happened. Not that much rain really to change the ground was it? I don't know, but was it anything to do with the high water table?

I dont know either mate,never really knew about water tables till this year!!

What i do know was that it was basic stuff as re the weather,and people just ignoring the amount of rain we had over months and months,simply cosc they did not want soft,were rather foolish imo,especially if they were punting on good ground horses without an eye on the possibility of soft.
And it werent as if they were not warned,i for one would not let it go,and was just trying to put some honest thoughts on here.

ffs if it had not started raining towards the end of this week it would have required watering, it was good to soft and then has had a good soaking, when this discussion started no one knew how much rain the course would get coz they had at least 3 dry weeks that very well might have continues right

so don't come over as some expert just coz it happened to rain just in time to turn it from g/s to s

im not,all i said and have been saying for ages,was that the possibilty of soft ground was very real.

a lot chose to pooh pooh that,i just hope that not many have lost a lot of money,cos thats what my posts all along were about.

so now i get sl&gged for trying to help! charming!!

I posted twice (page 1 and page 4) that 7/2 on soft going was simply too good to miss.

After stating last year that 'good going at 7/2 is the best bet I have seen' maybe I should be appointed the official Betfair going expert. In fact why not just go the whole hog and make me the official expert on everything.

it doesn't matter how good the drainage is if the water has knowhere to drain to. 2012 was so wet, the ground was saturated in September, giving it very little chance to dry out during a normal winter let alone a wet one.

We hadn't had any rain for weeks and Stratford has been abandoned after a couple of days of rain.

Snowing in Milton Keynes...hope it's not in Cheltenham.

Little bit of blusteryn snow in the west of Scotland. As soon as i opened the blinds as saw it, i thought of some guy tweeting Katie Miller a while back and saying a respectable accurate source said we will get snow for the festival

Truly hysterical post judo. The only thing that stopped you being right was the rain so in fact you are still right?

Judo is more of a stats and trends man (see his excellent thread) - you need to be a bit more holistic and at one with nature to get a handle on the going market.

Covers on

.
https://twitter.com/deniselarge/status/310750319128764417/photo/1

amazing a thread about the weather could get 13,000 views, thanks to all contributers

Wasn't really the rain that has kept it soft, It's the cold weather that has stopped the drying process. If it wasn't cold the covers wouldn't be on and the ground would be drying as we speak. Just unfornate this band of cold weather has swooped in.

Snow lying on the covers according to Lee Mottershead.

alleged22   




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when simon claise was interviewed  yesterday on atr he said when he left cheltenham it was good to soft, but it had started raining and would be soft when he got back



so 12 months on and the ground at Cheltenham must be heavy at the very least.

I think the odds on it being a soft ground festival, is the way to go... 9-4 was it ?