Cheltenham Festival

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29 Jan 13 11:04
Date Joined: 18 Feb 12
| Topic/replies: 3,831 | Blogger: alleged22's blog
not an exact science, but ive used this to fairly good effect over the years for various things, According to their forcast the beginning of march we have NO RAIN and a decent wind, could be that we will get good/good to soft in places for the opening day of the festival
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Report roobuck March 4, 2013 11:40 AM GMT
All changing by the day. Looked yesterday on metcheck and they were forecasting over 12mm on Sunday - now a dry day.
Report judorick March 4, 2013 12:12 PM GMT
lord knows now Crazy
Report Fallen Angel March 4, 2013 1:51 PM GMT
What is the current state of the ground? I listened to an interview with Claisse on timeform radio last week where he agreed that the ground would need less rain than usual to turn, interesting to hear what he thinks with just over a week left. Looks to me rain forecast every day 5mm on sunday according to the review I just had a peek at.
Report festivalfanatic March 4, 2013 2:13 PM GMT
In a press release issued last Wednesday, Claisse said that the prevailing going of 'soft, good to soft in places' would switch to 'good to soft, soft in places' after another 5 or 6 days without any rain. It is also going to be a very drying day tomorrow - sunny with temperatures in the mid teens. He also stated that if the forecast 15-18mm of rain arrives before the meeting, then he would expect the going to start 'soft' though it looks like Sunday and Monday are now going to be largely dry.
Report Fallen Angel March 4, 2013 3:03 PM GMT
hmm my lay of soft going looking overly generous now.
Report michael_o March 4, 2013 3:47 PM GMT
Official going now "good to soft" with more drying days to come. Some rain later in the week but wouldn't expect it to amount to very much.
Report buddeliea March 4, 2013 4:48 PM GMT
umm,good to soft with some rain to come.
Given he said it would not take too much for it to turn soft,this could really go either way,depending on how much we will get,as pretty much has been clear for some time.
No wonder connections are waiting till late,and who can blame them.
Report judorick March 4, 2013 5:06 PM GMT
good ole british weather
Report The Scobster March 4, 2013 5:20 PM GMT
As of 3.15 today both courses now good to soft.

Check it yourself here -

Really warm and sunny day tommorrow forecasted...then dry on Wednesday...then we'll see !
Report roobuck March 4, 2013 5:25 PM GMT
I think it will be better that we get some rainfall so that Claisse doesn't water. Some forecasts have quite a bit if rain in the actual week and if that comes in top of watered ground it could be horrible and less predictable than genuine soft ground.
Report judorick March 4, 2013 5:27 PM GMT
yes I prefer naturally soft to watered drying out so will take some rain even though I'm on good ground horses mainly
Report roobuck March 4, 2013 5:31 PM GMT
I've really tried to keep an open mind this year over the ground with my AP bets and so as a result they have been smaller in number.
Report roobuck March 4, 2013 9:52 PM GMT
Look at metcheck's forecast for Saturday Shocked
Report alleged22 March 4, 2013 9:57 PM GMT
it wasnt like that earlier, hope this weather doesnt materialise Sad
Report judorick March 4, 2013 9:58 PM GMT
got a link?
Report roobuck March 4, 2013 10:00 PM GMT
The point is come tomorrow they could be forecasting a dry day!
Report alleged22 March 4, 2013 10:01 PM GMT
Report ACStafford March 4, 2013 10:02 PM GMT
Get your money on heavy! Hopefully that's no accurate
Report judorick March 4, 2013 10:10 PM GMT
no wiser Laugh
Report roobuck March 4, 2013 10:12 PM GMT
I'd already worked that out LaughLaugh
Report judorick March 4, 2013 10:13 PM GMT
Laugh wet a finger and hold it up in the air Laugh
Report alleged22 March 4, 2013 10:14 PM GMT
earlier it said about 8mm rain to the festival now its saying 14mm+ for just the saturday Confused
Report alleged22 March 4, 2013 10:15 PM GMT
if we were 3 weeks away from the festival i wouldnt blink, but 7 days away its time to take notice....
Report judorick March 4, 2013 10:16 PM GMT
ok so one really wet day and the rest not much

accept that if it prevents Claisse turning on the taps
Report roobuck March 4, 2013 10:16 PM GMT
I just did as instructed and its a westerly = rain Grin
Report alleged22 March 4, 2013 10:18 PM GMT
and approx 13 mm on the other days its saying now matey
Report roobuck March 4, 2013 10:19 PM GMT
Judo if Saturday they get 14mm it'll be very soft - and there is other rain forecast. But no rain yet actually fallen
Report judorick March 4, 2013 10:19 PM GMT
completely lost now, although soft will do me on Tuesday, but want it dry by Friday
Report roobuck March 4, 2013 10:22 PM GMT
If the rain comes as forecast on Sat, it will be very soft on Tues and won't be good on Friday. It's taken 3 weeks to get it back to good to soft
Report festivalfanatic March 4, 2013 10:23 PM GMT
Forecast has changed several times in the last 48 hours. We'll have a much better idea of what we are likely to get on Saturday by Thursday. For the time being, no rain due before Wednesday PM, by which stage the ground will be verging on 'good'.
Report judorick March 4, 2013 10:24 PM GMT
well I'm going to top up on Zark, Melodic and At Fishers Cross
Report roobuck March 4, 2013 10:30 PM GMT
Not going to top up on Zark, enough exposure on him. May now back Melodic, makes sense as a back up to MTOY. If it comes should persuade Pipe to send Dynaste to Jewson and hopefully owners of Captain Conan will realise their best chance of a win is actually in the Arkle.
Report zilzal1 March 5, 2013 12:07 AM GMT
Hmm latest stick reading 6.1, quite a way from the mid 7s we had at last years festival, gets into the 5s then we're into real soft ground territory
Report ACStafford March 5, 2013 12:15 AM GMT
Metcheck forecast for Cheltenham week is appalling: snow and freezing temperatures. The forecast for 2 or 3 days away is changing by the hour though, so it'll probably have 20 degrees for next week by tomorrow.
Report judorick March 5, 2013 12:34 AM GMT
they seem to have removed the 15mm dowsing at the weekend now
Report ACStafford March 5, 2013 12:51 AM GMT
They seem to have increased the Friday night rainfall though.
Report judorick March 5, 2013 1:02 AM GMT
right! it's the same volume but starts Friday afternoon and persists til Saturday lunch time then pretty much just cold and dry til the end of the festival
Report sabetudo March 5, 2013 5:17 AM GMT
I work as an agronomist and look for accurate forecasts .Metcheck is possibly the least accurate. Trying to predict rain more than 4 days ahead is unreliable. So reading on here people backing for 7 days time based on the going is poor judgment.
Report roobuck March 5, 2013 5:42 AM GMT
I agree that the changes have been so big and quickly it gives the impression of being clueless. one thing seems consistent though is that some rain is coming?

So which site is more accurate have you found?

And from what you know, do they need to put frost covers down?

And in your experience and naturally interest in racing, what rainfall may be required to change the going?
Report unclepuncle March 5, 2013 7:07 AM GMT
This site seems pretty good and detailed.

Light patchy rain from Wednesday to Sunday (all depends what hits the course with it's unique little microclimate, but can't see it drying to good or going heavy) and then really cold next week - down to -4 at night.Shocked
Report roobuck March 5, 2013 7:11 AM GMT
Getting bizarrely obsessive at looking at metcheck now  - laughing at myself as well as the website.

Anyway now says 12mm Friday, 21mm Saturday, 6mm Sunday
Report Can't Catch Me March 5, 2013 8:45 AM GMT
I find is generally nearer the mark

No more than a 60% chance of rain any day according to them.....
Report festivalfanatic March 5, 2013 8:54 AM GMT
Listened to the local forecast from the Bristol Weather Centre about 40 minutes ago.

Dull wet and windy for the next few days. Drizzle mostly with heavier rain over the higher ground. Stark contrast to today which will be sunny and warm with temperature of up to 14 degrees!

Don't think Claisse will be watering (he will be disappointedLaugh) and the quickest ground we can anticipate is 'good to soft'. Might be 'soft' by the start of the meeting. Presumably we will get an update from the course later in the week. Last press release relating to the ground/weather was last Wednesday.
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 5, 2013 11:09 AM GMT
keep the local stuff coming - appreciate your efforts here festivalfanatic
Report judorick March 5, 2013 11:26 AM GMT
sabetudo 05 Mar 13 05:17 Joined: 13 Feb 05 | Topic/replies: 94 | Blogger: sabetudo's blog
I work as an agronomist and look for accurate forecasts .Metcheck is possibly the least accurate. Trying to predict rain more than 4 days ahead is unreliable. So reading on here people backing for 7 days time based on the going is poor judgment.


I mentioned 3 horses which I have already backed heavily (Melodic Rendezvous, Zarkandar & At Fishers Cross) even though I have been anticipating good to soft at the softest and their best form is on soft. I am therefore increasing my stakes now as there is a very good chance the ground will end up softer than I initially expected, and certainly will not be faster, and if that is the case then all of those horses chances will be significantly increased and their prices should then drop meaning I could lay off my additional exposure and increase my average odds

so far from poor judgement, it is pure logic as I am in no worse position if the rain does not arrive (exactly the same that I expected when I started backing them) and a potentially better one if it does
Report frankalsoran60 March 5, 2013 7:18 PM GMT
IT'S on the way, the six-million dollar question is how much of it arrives.

Rain forecast for Cheltenham is due in town on Wednesday and if the maximum amount does come, the official going for the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle on Tuesday may yet be soft, clerk of the course Simon Claisse said on Tuesday.

The racecourse and surrounding areas were bathed in early spring sunshine on Tuesday, and after assessing the course Claisse said: "It has dri ed out a bit today on the Old and New courses, chases and hurdles and is good to soft, good in places.

"The cross-country course is good to soft, soft in places. We've been dry for nearly three weeks but starting tomorrow we are expecting rain, between 12-15 millimetres, into Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

"If we get the upper end of the rain forecast, it could still end up as soft going."
Report alleged22 March 7, 2013 10:15 AM GMT
is there much rain falling in cheltenham today???
Report John.W.Henry. March 7, 2013 10:32 AM GMT
the biggest concern will be the covers going down on damp ground ( which is the likely scenario come sunday im afraid ) that will only serve to produce that horrid tacky muck we had had to endure many times this season already.. maybe the batton has been handed over to the sluggers again.
Report almera March 7, 2013 10:35 AM GMT
Does anyone know what would be the contingency plan used should any days racing be lost due to the predicted freezing temperatures next week?
Report Roger The Butler March 7, 2013 10:53 AM GMT
9.30am - Going remains Good to soft, good in places after 2mm of rain overnight.
Report callitasucit March 7, 2013 10:54 AM GMT
Much more rain expected today Roger?? Im hoping for a couple of dry days to encourage Pipe to go for Sun All with Dynaste.
Report ACStafford March 7, 2013 6:10 PM GMT
I've come to the conclusion that metcheck must randomly generated, or someone's having a laugh with it. They've just changed the projected rain on Saturday from about 30mm to 0mm. I need to stop looking at it constantly, but I can't seem to help myself!
Report Mr Eboue March 7, 2013 6:12 PM GMT
A vile day today.

Grey skies. Sporadic rainfall. Nothing too heavy just constant drizzle really.
Report sj March 7, 2013 6:21 PM GMT
Good to Soft all over
Report Mr Eboue March 7, 2013 6:23 PM GMT

Report Mr Eboue March 7, 2013 6:34 PM GMT
Joking aside if you are going wear a decent coat and a bobble hat.

The last thing you want to be doing up there is freezing your bollux off cause your trendy jacket is a flimsy little cotton piece.
Report duffy March 8, 2013 1:50 PM GMT
soft all round as of now.
Report unclepuncle March 8, 2013 1:54 PM GMT
08 Mar 13 13:50

soft all round as of now.

Where did you get that info Duffy?
Report duffy March 8, 2013 1:56 PM GMT
RUK now, andy clifton is on there and saying they've had 3 mils this morning in a sharp burst, still drizzling, he says claisse will walk the course this afternoon and he'll change it to soft, he also says that due to the forecast, it is unlikely it will get any quicker before the first day.
Report Leonardo March 8, 2013 1:57 PM GMT
Head of Comms at Chelts just said it on Racing UK
Report unclepuncle March 8, 2013 2:04 PM GMT
Thanks - lets hope it stays that way.Grin
Report duffy March 8, 2013 2:12 PM GMT
There's a fair chance that the whole course could be under covers before much longer isn't there.
Report CVByrne March 8, 2013 2:35 PM GMT
Soft ground is total dream scenario for me, bar Dodging Bullets.
Report roobuck March 8, 2013 4:20 PM GMT
Sorry CVB but weren't you going on about that Cheltenham would be good ground, March the driest month of the year and you would build your AP bets around traditional festival ground? And yet now soft ground is perfect for your portfolio?
Report alleged22 March 8, 2013 4:31 PM GMT
i think he might mean the fly roo as he was the likely winner on g/s but is a shoe in on soft imo
Report roobuck March 8, 2013 5:06 PM GMT
May be, I know he likes the Fly. But that's one horse and one race - still gets beat by Zark anyway!
Report festivalfanatic March 8, 2013 5:12 PM GMT
Precious little precipitation due before the off. 3 basically dry days but not drying conditions. This could be a very close call - soft, g/s in places, or the other way round.

Whatever, the ground is in great condition and it won't be desperately slow.
Report unclepuncle March 8, 2013 8:38 PM GMT
"Given the forecast I would say it's now not going to get any quicker than soft for the start of the meeting"

This is what Claisse himself is saying this afternoon yet amazingly you can still get matched at 4/5 on here for soft ground.Crazy
Report chief dan March 8, 2013 8:48 PM GMT
still raining here lads
Report unclepuncle March 9, 2013 5:30 AM GMT

So at about 2.00pm on Friday it's reported that it will almost certainly be soft for the start of the meeting, and the going was soft with near heavy patches on the cross country track when they walked the course (which must have been before 2.30 as that was when it was reported). It then continued to rain for several hours after that?
Yet still good to soft is being backed on here and soft is still available at over 4/5?
Please explain?
Report The RealDeal March 9, 2013 5:41 AM GMT
5.7 on Turftrax at 4.15pm Friday, soft all round (5.1 on Cross Country).
Report resner not lesnar March 9, 2013 7:11 AM GMT
Doesn't look to be anymore rain forecast as things stand so perhaps that's why uncle
Report John.W.Henry. March 9, 2013 7:53 AM GMT
covers due to go on sunday so what you have then is what you will get come tuesday. soft sticky shoite , at least for the first two days.. god knows what it will be come thoursday on the other track
Report Mister Westsound March 9, 2013 10:16 AM GMT
I'd rather have "soft sticky shoite" than an abondonment.  It is what it is and for once Claisse cannot be blamed.  Given the winter (and summer before that) it's no great surprise.
Report festivalfanatic March 9, 2013 10:41 AM GMT
No need to be unduly pessemistic about the ground. It has been rolled and spiked and the grass has been growing. It is also fresh ground on both courses. It will be slow but a much better racing surface than the horses have encountered for most of the last few months.
Report tommycockles March 9, 2013 10:42 AM GMT
dont like the look of bbc's forecast for monday (1m 40s in to the video forecast thing)

Report theunrealbandit March 9, 2013 10:52 AM GMT
Looks like nags might need their best snow shoes on Scared
Report roobuck March 9, 2013 10:53 AM GMT
Indeed it probably will ff but it will be quite a way off the traditional festival ground - an even greater emphasis on stamina
Report sc1883 March 9, 2013 10:57 AM GMT
cheltenham will be fine if that forecast is correct, the snow doesnt look like it will reach as far north as cheltenham (i hope!)
Report unclepuncle March 9, 2013 7:35 PM GMT
CHELTENHAM clerk of the course Simon Claisse on Saturday issued a confident prediction that the 2013 Festival will both start and end on soft ground as he spoke from a track that has been protected by frost covers in advance of the sport's most prestigious meeting for the first time.

Following a further 2mm of rain through Friday night, Cheltenham on Saturday remained soft on all tracks, including the Old course, used for the festival's opening two days and which has been completely covered in porous blankets.

Claisse said: "Based on the current forecast, my expectation is that the meeting will start on soft ground and I think we will still be predominantly soft on Friday, when there might also be some good to soft places.

Now pretty much officialGrin - so nice when a plan comes togetherCool
Report festivalfanatic March 9, 2013 7:51 PM GMT
Decent day in Cheltenham today. Little bit wet early but dry since about noon. Ground won't be any slower than it was yesterday and maybe a tad quicker.
Report judorick March 9, 2013 7:52 PM GMT
will be beautiful jumping ground
Report Makybe_Diva March 9, 2013 8:03 PM GMT
Hi Rick

Sending something to your inbox.
Report buddeliea March 10, 2013 8:23 AM GMT
So all those posts saying it always drains well,no chance of soft,he will get his watering can out etc etc etc.
And simply ignoring the weather and what it had done to the ground.
Hope yoy boys were careful with yer bets!!
Report roobuck March 10, 2013 9:08 AM GMT
Budd for all that its a better festival on decent ground, I cannot help smiling at what has happened. Not that much rain really to change the ground was it? I don't know, but was it anything to do with the high water table?
Report buddeliea March 10, 2013 9:35 AM GMT
I dont know either mate,never really knew about water tables till this year!!

What i do know was that it was basic stuff as re the weather,and people just ignoring the amount of rain we had over months and months,simply cosc they did not want soft,were rather foolish imo,especially if they were punting on good ground horses without an eye on the possibility of soft.
And it werent as if they were not warned,i for one would not let it go,and was just trying to put some honest thoughts on here.
Report judorick March 10, 2013 9:40 AM GMT
ffs if it had not started raining towards the end of this week it would have required watering, it was good to soft and then has had a good soaking, when this discussion started no one knew how much rain the course would get coz they had at least 3 dry weeks that very well might have continues right

so don't come over as some expert just coz it happened to rain just in time to turn it from g/s to s
Report buddeliea March 10, 2013 9:48 AM GMT
im not,all i said and have been saying for ages,was that the possibilty of soft ground was very real.

a lot chose to pooh pooh that,i just hope that not many have lost a lot of money,cos thats what my posts all along were about.

so now i get sl&gged for trying to help! charming!!
Report unclepuncle March 10, 2013 9:57 AM GMT
I posted twice (page 1 and page 4) that 7/2 on soft going was simply too good to miss.Devil

After stating last year that 'good going at 7/2 is the best bet I have seen' maybe I should be appointed the official Betfair going expert. In fact why not just go the whole hog and make me the official expert on everything.Silly
Report buddeliea March 10, 2013 10:00 AM GMT
Report Regular Fries March 10, 2013 10:04 AM GMT
it doesn't matter how good the drainage is if the water has knowhere to drain to. 2012 was so wet, the ground was saturated in September, giving it very little chance to dry out during a normal winter let alone a wet one.

We hadn't had any rain for weeks and Stratford has been abandoned after a couple of days of rain.
Report JOCI Club March 10, 2013 10:08 AM GMT
Snowing in Milton Keynes...hope it's not in Cheltenham.
Report Graeme83 March 10, 2013 10:30 AM GMT
Little bit of blusteryn snow in the west of Scotland. As soon as i opened the blinds as saw it, i thought of some guy tweeting Katie Miller a while back and saying a respectable accurate source said we will get snow for the festival Sad
Report roobuck March 10, 2013 10:35 AM GMT
Truly hysterical post judo. The only thing that stopped you being right was the rain so in fact you are still right? LaughLaugh
Report unclepuncle March 10, 2013 2:11 PM GMT
Judo is more of a stats and trends man (see his excellent thread) - you need to be a bit more holistic and at one with nature to get a handle on the going market.Grin
Report tommycockles March 10, 2013 2:12 PM GMT
Covers on

Report alleged22 March 11, 2013 2:38 PM GMT
amazing a thread about the weather could get 13,000 views, thanks to all contributers Cool
Report Brooksielad March 11, 2013 2:51 PM GMT
Wasn't really the rain that has kept it soft, It's the cold weather that has stopped the drying process. If it wasn't cold the covers wouldn't be on and the ground would be drying as we speak. Just unfornate this band of cold weather has swooped in.
Report unclepuncle March 11, 2013 2:53 PM GMT
Snow lying on the covers according to Lee Mottershead.
Report alleged22 February 11, 2014 10:52 PM GMT

Date Joined:   18 Feb 12 
Add contact | Send message    10 Feb 13 11:48   

when simon claise was interviewed  yesterday on atr he said when he left cheltenham it was good to soft, but it had started raining and would be soft when he got back

so 12 months on and the ground at Cheltenham must be heavy at the very least.

I think the odds on it being a soft ground festival, is the way to go... 9-4 was it ?
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