Cheltenham Festival
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Pont Alexandre - Bartlett or Neptune?
Pont Alexandre - Bartlett or Neptune?
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Replies: 74
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Looks to have a bright future, lovely long stride.
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Ballycasey running in AB,aint he?
Think we wont know where PA goes till very late. |
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Using Our Vinnie as a yardstick, would suggest to me that PA has a bit to find with The New One. On quicker ground I would think he would be better served by running in the AB. Either way I believe Chelt Saturday form is slightly better than his and now appears too short in the betting.
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Normally I would be in full agreement about treating everything Mullins says with extreme caution. In this case I am not so sure. As soon as Pont Alexandre made a winning debut you would reasonably have expected him to be aimed at the Albert Bartlett leaving Champagne Fever for the Neptune. At that stage Ballycasey wasn't really on the radar. Subsequently Champagne Fever runs a shocker but a few days later Mullins gives an upbeat report - nothing since? - and almost immediately there is a big move for Ballycasey. Hard to believe that is not stable money. Since then all running plans appear to revolve around Ballycasey. It beggars belief that nobody has grilled Mullins over Champagne Fever. You have to be concerned that a decision has already been made to miss Cheltenham and Mullins hasn't bothered to tell anyone - the Deloitte entry looks a smokescreen to me as it doesn't look an ideal confidence booster for a horse returning off such a bad run. He doesn't need to prove he is Grade 1 class his bumper form already confirms that.
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I'd say that it's difficult to gauge PA's ability as he hasn't been fully challenged to date. If he finds more when asked then he looks top notch & a worthy fav for either race IMO.
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Mullins famous for talking absolute rubbish regarding where a horse goes. This thing was being ridden along yesterday on heavy ground into a wind over 2m 4f. On better ground against quicker horses he is gonna get turned over.
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He could have won on the bit yesterday had Ruby chosen too, he crusied away from them after the good jump at the 2nd last and Ruby pushed him out (without using the whip) for experience more than anything i'd say.
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Think if you have backed PA for Albert Bartlett (like me, hence the thread) you are deluding yourself if you think he is still likely to turn up there. I think Ruby's quote is telling: "If you saw him at home, you'd think he wants five miles. He is a different horse at the track and showed today he has the pace for the Neptune." They really do want to run him in the Neptune and Ballycasey for the AB. The pre-race Betfair markets suggested that was their thinking.
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This is getting beat in March for me. The New One, Puffin Billy, Rule The World all got a chance against this thing. Yesterday full of Albert Bartlett horses. If making the running will be stalked all the way then pounced on.
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As for Mullins comment regarding best novice hurdler ever..erm, heard all this last year with Boston Bob I think?
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I like Rule The World & still think he's a tad overpriced. It'll be a late decision by Mullins I believe & it's hard to criticise as the trainer & owner have several options. I would agree with PF's assessment of yesterday's race.
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I'd be pretty sure this horse runs in the Neptune.
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Puffin Billy goin Supreme most likely as per trainer today
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if its soft i believe BJG
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Pont is a high class horse and think it will win whichever race it turns up in. Bit like Simonsig of last season a horse with a huge future.
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pont is like most of the mullins horse pre cheltenham far too short in the betting, it wont beat the new one. the twiston davies,s have a line of form through their horse according to trev and our vinnie, i dont think they will be losing much sleep
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Hard to criticise? A late decision? For the last few weeks it appears to have been set in stone that Ballycasey is going for the Albert Bartlett. On that basis it was then inevitable Pont Alexandre was Neptune bound pending victory yesterday. The criticism is the lack of information about Champagne Fever - if this horse doesn't travel he is one of the best ante-post results bookmakers could wish for having appeared towards the head of markets for Supreme, Neptune, Albert Bartlett, RSA etc.
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Ladbrokes are very wise and took PA out the AB betting and CF out the Neptune betting loooool.
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Differentdrum. I think ur making the plans up in ur head?
1. They've had a sick horse, would they rule him in/out of anything straight after his last run? 2. We are experiencing some of the most volatile weather in recent memory, could lead to a soft ground festival no? 3. How the feck can Mullins commit his running plans at this stage with so many variables to consider? I |
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I am making them up?
1. They had a sick horse but we are two weeks further down the line and Mullins has said nothing after initial upbeat report. 2. None of the three horses should have a problem with soft ground so that isn't a factor. 3. Haven't you read the quote? Mullins has already said Pont Alexandre goes for the Neptune and Ballycasey goes for the Albert Bartlett. |
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Yes, he has indicated that, it could of course change over the next few weeks. I recall Mullins giving an interview last year stating that SDC was RSA bound.
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you only have to look where the moneys going on betfair,that will normally tell you mullins plan,remember last year when he said he didnt know where boston bob was going,yet all the money was going on him to win the ab,someone last year flaggedit up with him at a cheltenham forum last year and he was totally dumbstruck ! it is on utube
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“Ballycasey (the winner's stablemate) looks like he might go for the Albert Bartlett and while Pont Alenandre could go for the Albert Bartlett, he seems to have plenty of speed and will go for the Neptune.”
I'll say no more. Mullins is very reserved so why after two weeks would he need to give another update what else would he need to say???? He's quite clearly covering himself with saying "could". That word alone has made my mind up that if Champagne Fever is right he will switch PA. |
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Why would he commit 6 weeks before? I mean really...with this stable?
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Followers of pricewise would like to note that Tom Segal has said Pont Alexandre is his "number one" at the moment and said he looks a class above.
He also quoted Mullins as saying he is the best novice hurdler he has had since Hurricane Fly. |
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Granted, Mullins doesn't give much away, but amazed at the abuse aimed at him on here. johntucker sums it up well above, and those who think any trainer should be constantly updating the punters with every probable and possible permutation for the festival seven weeks in advance is certifiable. Try to work it out for yourself and, if you're in doubt, you don't have to bet!
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well said cyclops.
it happens every year with mullins,mainly cos he has so many novices. its up to us to try and work it out,or just leave it till near the day. |
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"those who think any trainer should be constantly updating the punters with every probable and possible permutation for the festival seven weeks in advance is certifiable."
And there in lies the problem. WM seems to feel the need to keep updating the punters on where his horses "will go". Unfortunately many times in the past the word "will" has meant "may". There is absolutely no need for any trainer to give definitive answers until days before the festival given that so many factors can affect decisions. The Oliver Sherwood interview on ATR recently regarding Puffin Billy was a perfect example of a trainer in tune with what punters want to hear i.e. no sure yet where he may go, if soft ground then Supreme, if good ground then Neptune (paraphrasing). Everyone is happy. gltu. |
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Yes, but Sherwood has one horse for these races. Very difficult for Mullins not to be somewhat contradictory as the season progresses, in much the same way as Henderson. The latter, for example, has veered from World Hurdle to Champion Hurdle to neither in recent weeks for Oscar Whisky. The only thing he hasn't posited is the Champion/World double.
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Does anyone know when the declerations for the Neptune / Supreme are actually out. I wasn't expecting the market to be closed for more than a couple of days
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On the other thread
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WM has probably 6 7 or 8 horses which could run in the novice hurdle races so it is very difficult for him to be definite at this stage. It is frustrating I know but very understandable. Most of the criticism on here is simply unfair.
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"The latter, for example, has veered from World Hurdle to Champion Hurdle to neither in recent weeks for Oscar Whisky."
They may have veered but Henderson has never once said definitely which race Oscar Whiskey would go for. This is what i am talking about. It's all about being aware of what you're saying. All WM has to say is "we will look at the Neptune and AB for him and depending on how the race looks and ground conditions we will decide which way to go". Instead he gets that "lightbulb above his head" look and blabs out something definitive. He needs some PR schooling. IMO. gltu |
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"WM has probably 6 7 or 8 horses which could run in the novice hurdle races so it is very difficult for him to be definite at this stage."
The issue is him being too definitive this early on. I personally don't care if he waits until the final decs stage to make up his mind as long as he lets punters know he's in a state of indecision about the horses in question. Is that too much to ask. gltu. |
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While the nine-year-old won two Grade Ones last term, he relinquished his Champion Hurdle title at Cheltenham in what was a slightly disappointing performance.
However, he has been in excellent form this term, winning the Morgiana and Festival Hurdles before his comfortable five-length verdict at Leopardstown last weekend. Mullins said: "He is fine and has come out of his race very well and is back in the form he was in two years ago. Last year he came in from grass lighter, but this year he has come in stronger and has kept the condition on him." Profiles Hurricane Fly (IRE) Pont Alexandre (GER) Ballycasey (IRE) W P Mullins Hurricane Fly dominates the betting for next month's Champion Hurdle and Mullins also has a strong hand in the novice heats. Pont Alexandre is unbeaten in two starts this term, winning a Grade Two at Leopardstown last Sunday to book his place in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle. Mullins also has Ballycasey in the race, but the dual hurdles winner is set to tackle the three-mile Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle instead. The trainer said: "Pont Alexandre gallops, stays and does everything right. He doesn't show me his ability at home but that's because we don't get stuck into him much and the plan remains for him to go to the Neptune and for Ballycasey to go for the Albert Bartlett." |