Hey Tom,
Always like reading your opinions but have to disagree with you here. The way you are talking about Bob's Worth would he suggest he is prohibitive odds but given the big question marks over all his rivals, for me there is plenty of juice in a price of around 7/2. Ultimately the King George and the Lexus are always the best pointers towards the Gold Cup and all the best staying chasers will appear in these races. Given Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant were 1st and 2nd in the Lexus it is fair to say he has this race covered. Sir Des Champs still rates the main danger for me simply because the first 3 home seemed to run their race. If Sir Des Champs can improve his jumping then he can find improvement and the extra distance and good ground should be in his favour at the festival.
Regarding the King George, it looked a poor renewal for me, with all of Long Run's main challengers before the race looking like non-stayers. Captain Chris is what he is, a decent horse going right handed who is a bit short of top class. I know people will point to his Arkle victory over future Champion Chaser Finian's Rainbow but he was a horse who was very exuberant as a novice and often struggled to get home, Captain Chris just outstayed him and the ones in behind proved to be very average.
Sil Conti still needs to prove he acts at Cheltenham, doesnt need to boss a small field and in his best piece of form The Giant Bolster and Weird Al were close up enough to hold it down imo.
Long Run was third in what was a poor gold cup last year and seems a lot more suited by Kempton than Cheltenham for me. Bob's is on a steep upward curve, has won at the last two festivals and looks as uncomplicated as a horse can be. Yes, he has it to prove at the top level but given the weakness of the opposition I think the price is more than fair.
The final point I'd make is that you cannot ignore the difference between having Sam Waley-Cohen and Barry Geraghty or another top class jockey in the saddle. It's not a knock on Sam and fair play to connections if his is what the want to do but realistically he is an amateur who has far less experience than the top jockeys and is always going to be a handicap when he is in the saddle. He gave him a great ride in his Gold Cup win (possibly more luck than judgement) but on average I would estimate he is a 7-14lb penalty compared to the very best.

Aye, fair play 14 is a bit much on reflection, ill go with 7

Hey Barnesy,

To be fair, he's not that short a price now and the argument you (and others) make is fair. He was around 5/2 with some bookies before his little setback and that I felt was way too short. I still think he's tight enough but 4/1 is definitely more reasonable, especially seeing as avoiding a real slog today might well prove to be a blessing in disguise.

With regard to Long Run, I completely agree that he's be a better horse with Barry (or another pro) on top. It'll never be asked and is even less likely to be answered if it was, but I'd love to know Barry's response if he was given a choice of riding Long Run or Bob's Worth. I would find it hard to back Long Run because it would likely be painful seeing him coming down the hill in contention but with Sam not really knowing what's going on around him. I don't want to be overly critical as he has achieved a lot on board Long Run, but his Gold Cup win was through as much luck as judgment to my eye; not many people seemed to pick it up at the time but Sam had him unsighted at those critical fences coming down the hill and it was only his younger legs that got his jock out of trouble as the two old boys wilted up the hill. Sam will never have the same tactical awareness as the big boys and it does put you off - I just think in terms of his overall record, the horse has achieved an awful lot and is being unfairly written off by many. I actually thought the King George was a good one, if not a great one. Many of his rivals were non-stayers but he bossed them from a long way out, way before stamina came into play, and I'm sure he is as good as he was two years ago.

For what it's worth, I am very sweet on Silviniaco Conti. I think he's a better horse than Bob's Worth and was very impressed with him at Haydock. People made their own minds up before the race that Long Run wasn't really there to give it his all, and afterwards they added on the interpretation that Ruby rode his own fractions and nicked it. To me, he gave Long Run (and the others) a target from a long way out and was further ahead at the line than at any other point in the home straight, having jumped superbly and travelled strongly throughout. The lack of Cheltenham form is a minor concern, but there is nothing about him that suggests he'll have any problems with the course (he's nimble, a good jumper, travels well, and stays). The same assets don't worry me at all as regards the potential bigger field, and that might not materialise anyway. He's coming from the yard that knows better than most how to target and win this big one, and I like the prep he is having. Time will tell but I'm surprised he's not shorter than he is. I wouldn't be surprised if he's nearly favourite on the day.

Sometimes it just comes down to a gut feeling doesn't it, I have a gut feeling that SC may well turn out to be a flat track specialist, I've got an inkling that he will wilt when coming under proper pressure coming up that hill, I don't think that there's enough evidence that he's jumped up from last year to what he's done this year to suggest he's gold cup winner material.Long run had a right old battle with KS in the race last year and I think they thought it wrecked him for the year, this year it was a stepping stone and they did not go to war with SC through the race. The proximity of WA and TGB doesn't do much for the form either and he has a big question to answer with regards to the track

What i'm saying though is that long run was adversely affected right through last season with regards to that first run, incidentally WA was a good deal better horse at the start of last season than he is now...a good deal better!!! he went into the haydock race on the back of a demolition job in the charlie hall himself remember! you wouldn't want him finishing too close to you these days.

This year with long run having a more considered run in the haydock race...how close did TGB get to him in the KG, although I do accept that TGB was beat very early, but I still wouldn't expect him to be in the same ball park as an on song long run.

I would be concerned though about all the horses who contested the KG for future runs this season, GC has already failed through one reason or another, they were battered that day.