should be at least half the price in gold cup,

Don't see it myself. I backed him for the King George on the morning of the rcae as Hills' 3-1 was too big against a field of largely non stayers but can't see him or his jockey being good enough against a new crop. I think you could say his Gold Cup win came against 2 horses not at their best and possibly past their best on the day and last year's form is a long way short of what he'll need to beat Bobs Worth and the Lexus horses. If he jumps like he did at Kempton, particularly the last, they'll be gone and he doesn't have the speed to beat the best. Could possibly see him in 3rd but can't have him as the winner.

mepoor
Totally agree, this is by far the best ew bet of the whole festival!!!!
Afterall he does get a place everytime he runs and hes won a couple of little tin pot races over the last 3 years and has festival form figures of 313 so those who say festival form is everyhing get your 2-1 a place it cant last forever...

If the cheekpieces sharpen him up at all he is a very plausible winner. Not sure he's the bet of the Festival to hit the frame, but I think he is probably being underestimated by many.

Just can't really get last years run out of my head. I backed him and he was there after the last, I expected him to scoot up from there but he didn't even get past The Giant Bolster. Could have been an off day but his form the previous race not really fantastic has Burton was well beaten in GC and got beat in a very weak grade race at Aintree also.

I can see him staying on after the last for 3rd but would be very suprised if he wins it

He will be in first 3 if the ground is soft imo.
Otherwise not for me at all.

The pace of the GC is always that bit quicker than most other +3m chases throughout the season but last seasons lineup was pretty bad.

We know LR travels as well as any GC horse so will be suited by the upturn in quality this year, yes he may throw in a terrible jump in 1 of the last 3 fences which could leave him in a bad position for the finish but i think he will be there or thereabouts at the end and is one to have onside, if only as a saver. Bobs Worth is a very solid favourite and in an average year would be nailed on.

Alex
Bobs worth nailed on in an average year?
So i take it not many of the last 10 have been average?, Could you really see him beating a Kicking king, Best mate, Denman, Kauto star or even Imperial commander in their prime?
Good horse yes but still plenty to prove against top class opponents!!!!!

bobs worth is top quality, that much is obvious.

Have to agree with the OP.

Long Run is a good shout depending how he came out of that tough KGeorge - certainly eway so you have to shorten it up or its a gimme for the eway thieves. 

You could throw a blanket over them in the Lexus .... I don't see why that is such great form, you can spin it any way you want but Tidal Bay won who may well go to the Stayers Hurdle!

Imo he needs to step up markedly from last year's form: if he runs the same race again he won't be sighted imo.

If the cheekpieces reignite the old spark then he has a chance but not one for me. He has run at Cheltenham 4 times and disappointed on three of those occasions: when he game up against a class act in the RSA he was floored. I'm of the belief that the Gold Cup he won fell apart in many ways, with both Denman and Kauto running below their best.

Of the Henderson pair I'd fancy Bobs Worth to beat him every time. Just my opinion of course.

ok not nailed on but as duffy said, he is toptop class and imo the best over 3m at chelt, is he the best over 3m2 is for us to decide...

I think people need to just calm down a bit with regards Bobs Worth.

He's a worthy fav this year, but is a terrible price because he's had one run out of novice company, when he was fairly well treated by the handicapper.  As a novice, he jumped pretty poorly for most of the season, but then it all clicked at Cheltenham.

Imo he's a good horse who stays very well, and no more.  That may well be good enough to win this year's Gold Cup, but I'd want to see him win a Gold Cup before I'd cal him toptop class.

why does people point to the bad run in finishing third in gold cup, if he was alittle below par that day it was some run.i watched long run jump some of those fences at kempton in last run and he flew over them like 2 mile chaser,and they ended up out like washing,so if hes back on form which winning any king george should say he is in good form at least he should be worthy favourite.
ever horse has bad runs in career but his seem to be in top class races when he just finishes placed.so i still think if he runs to his form he will  bang there  and at just turned 8 should be in his prime,he could be burnt out thats what every one thinks or he woudnt be that price but you dont win king georges burnt out thats a fact.

my gut feeling is he will not even place this year

I think you're putting too much emphasis on the names of those races mepoor. He was third in the Gold Cup yes, but the bare form is nothing to write home about.

'Winning any King George' could mean absolutely nothing depending on the horses who run. I think you are putting too much emphasis on the race titles as opposed to the actual form.

His King George run was better than his Gold Cup, granted, but I strongly believe the cheek pieces will need to work serious magic if he's to regain the Gold Cup in what looks a much stronger renewal on paper.

" the cheek pieces will need to work serious magic " he,ll defo need the magic dust thats for sure

id back it in the national though

i understand what your saying but not any horse wins a king george for start,secondly bobs worth beat the same horse he beat in  rsa last year in hennessy which would possibly mean that race is now going to be a top notch gold cup form with the third franking form and second i just dont see any they two races being better than long runs,he won gold cup after winning king george with two good perfromances,he got beat last year yes maybe he needed rest and had of day, but he then comes out obviously needing race and gets beat with silver conti thats fine first race, then wins king george again thats top form in anyones book, and over all is deff the best form in this race with out any doubt, yes the rest are coming to take him on and young improvers,but i honestly beleive henderson and the  team left some more on him at kempton and he will improve again and if he does improve for the run and a good rest i think he could come there cruising i really do and win this easy,  so in my opinion he is out standing value for a win.if he does win they will say it was poor race, but i would say 2 gold cups 2 king georges and just turned 8 hes some horse, i remember when he won his first one 2 years ago they said he was just a baby still growing so might take couple of runs to get him to peak. and if thats case  he only needs to stay on feet to win.

Slab
You dont win a king george by not bein out the very top draw,look at the festival form of the last 15 years king geore winners, they tend to be place (or win) in gold cup Best mate kauto star kicking king and LR. Look at the form of Hennesey winners other than denman ,pretty poor!I am in doubt bob's worth is very good but still has it all to do and is far to short for what he has done on the track. And before anyone comes back RSA winners record other than denman is only very average in GC

Could we possibly not be over looking one in this? I have not played a single penny on anything in this race yet, (surprising myself here lol ) but hows about's CAPTAIN CHRIS He ran an absolute cracker in the KG and am pretty sure, if they ran the race again, CC is the winner of that KG! SWC wont be getting away with just letting LR pop the last 2 fences in the GC and if CC is up there again battling in the CGC am could we not have a turn around no

STS-N01
I quite like Captain Chris however I saw the KG race differently, noted by Jim Mc on C4 in commentary.

Long Run was repeatedly challenged up front - Captain Chris put in the 3rd blow and Long Run got up again (after 2 jumping errors in the race, one was a significant blunder). That is top quality racing IMHO.

Yeah i get what your saying but as i stated above, will he be getting away with such errors in this years CGC At the prices, CC is better imo. 25/1 now, imo should be closer to 16s area at this stage! And im not the greatest fan of the irish raiders in this either tbf i think they have it to prove as is often the case i think fleminstar may prove to be the next florida pearl, top class but always found wanting in the CGC and SDC just not quite good enough. Bobs worth very worthy fav, but then your left with Silv conti, which i would give a squeak to but should be double those odds on what hes achieved.
I have left the race well alone as i struggle to make real reasons to back anything. I missed the 9/2 about bobs as i decided to wait until after the lexus was run, something i regret but hey ho thats life.

I re-iterate, i left the 9/2 alone as i fully expected SDC wo win the lexus, and i backed him too. I was very disappointed with the run. He just didn't seem right to me and a similar display at Cheltenham will see him to have no chance. My theory with Fleminstar is as stated above and we're now left with silv conti and bobs so CC at 25s is value, given at what that horse has achieved in the past, is proven at top class, lost his form for what seemed to be a season (injury) and comes back at kempton at xmas in form of his life? A similar display could well see him up there jumping the last then who knows

sea
So how do you still not have LR as value, you clearly fancy a horse that was beaten by him,a horse that for 2 years only has form going the other way round.
Do you really think 9/2 about BW would have made you bet but 7/2 doesnt? Reading all the comments on here (on other threads) nobody likes SC (finished in front of BW) Grand Crus alot to prove after op (finished in front of BW) FL doesnt stay (not far behind BW) Tidal bay gave it a few pounds and closed on the run in (not far behind BW).
Yes it has very strong course form and will stay but just seems far to short with those wholes picked in the form, I'm prepared for the egg on face but should this really be such a strong GC fav??

I think i already stated how i felt about LR when mentioning CC no Horses (in general) don't regain championship races at the cheltenham festival, or any festival for that matter, history tells us that, KAUTO STAR was a legend and should be remembered as such!

How many regain King George??
Not a valid argument.Has to have more chance than CC its a better horse

Yawn........... more horses down the years have regained the KG than any other grade 1 chase in the united kingdom! I am not sure of the actual stats, but i no that much. It was mooted before the race and after when LR came out as the winner!

Ok yawn a bit strong i apologise and i am not in anyways saying CC will finish in front of LR but given the proximity of them at the finish line in the KG and Chelters being a very different course i would rather be on the 25/1er than the 7/1er. I am not as already stated though have not completely decided what im doing in this.

Captain Chris seems to have a problem with jumping right handed at Cheltenham,hence his good form going round that way.
Could not touch him at all in a gold Cup,whatever the price.

they still keep saying stats say he cant win, thats my whole point of this thread, there no stats for a horse his age trying to win a gold cup or regain it i should say after just winning a KING GEORGE  no horse has ever atempted it. the last 6 yer old to win a gold cup was mill house and he was beaten by arkle the following year then had back problems, this horse just won a king george again there is nothing wrong with him, ok he might get beat for what ever reason, but on what he has achieved and how he is currently he should be fav. if what i think is correct and this horse is fine in his self coming the day he could be the best priced former gold cup winner  by a mile.puting it other way if he wins i wont rate him as  breaking stats i will exspect him to possible win both races next year again .as for captain chris he was coming from long way back in king george as long run was only one staying on out all front pacers showing his class, yet idoled in front in what was gruelling race then just picked up again once was headed.
there was only a little frieght that long run was collared by pace of race, but in gold cup when there burnt of one by one there no way captain chris would make that up in any gold cup.long run has the quality for every thing you need in gold cup, pace,stamina,class,every one goes on about his jumping hes a 3 miler they do make odd
mistake but some of his jumping is breath taking,and they also go on about jockey also i would deff not wish any one else on it now, he knows what to do, when to do it,and knows the horse.when hes hugging it a yard after line ,they will  say class actand hes only 8.

the value point regarding Long Run depends on whether he can still run to his 180 rating these days . It seems not therefore he has a similar chance to a number of runners with no upside for improvement . It is however difficult to think he wont contend and has run to rock solid level in his last three runs that would indicate he will at least place.

^ That depends on your assessment of what it will take to win this year's race. I'm far from convinced that it will need a 180 performance to win it. People often mistake how competitive a race is for it being a good renewal.

As a few will know, I think Bobs is a rotten price, and am very cautious as to the strength of his form. Yes it was franked by Tidal Bay winning the Lexus, but it's perfectly plausible that Sir Des Champs ran nowhere near his best after jumping stickily and racing lazily, and then you have the same old warrior in First Lieutenant and a potential non-stayer in Flemenstar. I know this is a potentially coloured view, but as Wellchief and a few others have alluded to, Bobs is a shortish favourite on the back of one win in open company in which he beat Tidal Bay (getting weight), and First Lieutenant. Again. Who again didn't really look like he stayed.

I think Long Run's form is considerably stronger than Bobs' and the prices are wrong. Not knocking Bobs at all, but do think the price is very skinny. I am yet to be convinced that he is top class and will be backing Long Run to beat him in a match bet, as well as Silviniaco Conti outright, who is my idea of the winner.

PS: I also think Captain Chris is a big price as well. I am concerned about him jumping left-handed, but hope he was just wrong last season and that he'll be fine back at Cheltenham now he has regained his form. He jumped well enough to win an Arkle, let's not forget, in which he beat Finian's Rainbow, so he has been to Cheltenham and done it before. I thought his run in the Ryanair last term was outstanding given the problems he'd had in the build-up to the race. Not sure he'll quite get home, but at over 8-1 to place, I think he's worth a few bob.

Good points tom.

As a few will know, I think Bobs is a rotten price, and am very cautious as to the strength of his form.

^ Seriously, everyone seems to have already given Bobs the title!

Would you not have expected him to beat Tidal Bay getting weight at Newbury? A lot of people are banking on Tidal Bay running to very high marks to suit their positions, but there is every chance he is still shy of Gold Cup class, in which case his formlines are being over-valued. Seems slightly odd to me (and I'm a big fan of the horse) that Nicholls has transformed him to the extent that he's basically the best chaser in the Gold Cup field at the age of 12. People love to hate Howard Johnson but he trained enough Festival winners not to be a total mug.

First Lieutenant is another forum darling but from what I can see he looks just below the very highest class and doesn't win very often. Bobs keeps beating him, so it gets a bit much when he is continually used as the marker that proves how great Bobs is. It's almost like a Hurricane Fly and Solwhit argument, when we never really knew how good Solwhit was.

As I said above, Bobs is clearly a very good horse and he loves Cheltenham, so it's easy to see why people are backing him, but it's not as though there isn't a young horse in his own stable that has achieved considerably more, and is on offer at a much bigger price. And people don't even really fancy him!

First Lieutenant is another forum darling but from what I can see he looks just below the very highest class....a 9lb beating from Bob's Worth in Hennessy would suggest as much, yes


Seems slightly odd to me that Nicholls has transformed him...horse went over 2 yrs without winning then wins Whitbread on bridle, Grade 2 over hurdles and Grade 1 over fences...i'd say he's transformed him to some degree

Fair enough... poor choice of words. He has been transformed to some degree, but do people think he is actually running to marks in the low to mid 170s as a 12-year-old? I am not convinced, and that is why I question just how good Bobs has actually shown himself to be.

I don't see why not. China Rock and QQDLR were both hammered in that race and Id argue they were China Rocks ideal conditions. Don't forget QQDLR was placed in same race last year and won NTO.

Hey Tom,
Always like reading your opinions but have to disagree with you here. The way you are talking about Bob's Worth would he suggest he is prohibitive odds but given the big question marks over all his rivals, for me there is plenty of juice in a price of around 7/2. Ultimately the King George and the Lexus are always the best pointers towards the Gold Cup and all the best staying chasers will appear in these races. Given Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant were 1st and 2nd in the Lexus it is fair to say he has this race covered. Sir Des Champs still rates the main danger for me simply because the first 3 home seemed to run their race. If Sir Des Champs can improve his jumping then he can find improvement and the extra distance and good ground should be in his favour at the festival.
Regarding the King George, it looked a poor renewal for me, with all of Long Run's main challengers before the race looking like non-stayers. Captain Chris is what he is, a decent horse going right handed who is a bit short of top class. I know people will point to his Arkle victory over future Champion Chaser Finian's Rainbow but he was a horse who was very exuberant as a novice and often struggled to get home, Captain Chris just outstayed him and the ones in behind proved to be very average.
Sil Conti still needs to prove he acts at Cheltenham, doesnt need to boss a small field and in his best piece of form The Giant Bolster and Weird Al were close up enough to hold it down imo.
Long Run was third in what was a poor gold cup last year and seems a lot more suited by Kempton than Cheltenham for me. Bob's is on a steep upward curve, has won at the last two festivals and looks as uncomplicated as a horse can be. Yes, he has it to prove at the top level but given the weakness of the opposition I think the price is more than fair.
The final point I'd make is that you cannot ignore the difference between having Sam Waley-Cohen and Barry Geraghty or another top class jockey in the saddle. It's not a knock on Sam and fair play to connections if his is what the want to do but realistically he is an amateur who has far less experience than the top jockeys and is always going to be a handicap when he is in the saddle. He gave him a great ride in his Gold Cup win (possibly more luck than judgement) but on average I would estimate he is a 7-14lb penalty compared to the very best.

What, you reckon long run could be potentially a stone better horse with a top jock on board, stretching it a wee bit isn't it.

Aye, fair play 14 is a bit much on reflection, ill go with 7

It would be nice if we got the chance to find out one day, I gave waley cohen a fair bit of credit in the KG to be honest, I know there was a bit of a heart attack at the end but he increased the pace at a good time when him and CC went on which put the rest in trouble, if he waited any longer then come the end I think the captain may have had a bit more left, plus when he found himself alone and idling out in the middle of the track, when he saw captain chris appearing up the rail, he was quick to drag long run back over and into a battle with him.

Hey Barnesy,

To be fair, he's not that short a price now and the argument you (and others) make is fair. He was around 5/2 with some bookies before his little setback and that I felt was way too short. I still think he's tight enough but 4/1 is definitely more reasonable, especially seeing as avoiding a real slog today might well prove to be a blessing in disguise.

With regard to Long Run, I completely agree that he's be a better horse with Barry (or another pro) on top. It'll never be asked and is even less likely to be answered if it was, but I'd love to know Barry's response if he was given a choice of riding Long Run or Bob's Worth. I would find it hard to back Long Run because it would likely be painful seeing him coming down the hill in contention but with Sam not really knowing what's going on around him. I don't want to be overly critical as he has achieved a lot on board Long Run, but his Gold Cup win was through as much luck as judgment to my eye; not many people seemed to pick it up at the time but Sam had him unsighted at those critical fences coming down the hill and it was only his younger legs that got his jock out of trouble as the two old boys wilted up the hill. Sam will never have the same tactical awareness as the big boys and it does put you off - I just think in terms of his overall record, the horse has achieved an awful lot and is being unfairly written off by many. I actually thought the King George was a good one, if not a great one. Many of his rivals were non-stayers but he bossed them from a long way out, way before stamina came into play, and I'm sure he is as good as he was two years ago.

For what it's worth, I am very sweet on Silviniaco Conti. I think he's a better horse than Bob's Worth and was very impressed with him at Haydock. People made their own minds up before the race that Long Run wasn't really there to give it his all, and afterwards they added on the interpretation that Ruby rode his own fractions and nicked it. To me, he gave Long Run (and the others) a target from a long way out and was further ahead at the line than at any other point in the home straight, having jumped superbly and travelled strongly throughout. The lack of Cheltenham form is a minor concern, but there is nothing about him that suggests he'll have any problems with the course (he's nimble, a good jumper, travels well, and stays). The same assets don't worry me at all as regards the potential bigger field, and that might not materialise anyway. He's coming from the yard that knows better than most how to target and win this big one, and I like the prep he is having. Time will tell but I'm surprised he's not shorter than he is. I wouldn't be surprised if he's nearly favourite on the day.

Silviniaco Conti is certainly not one I'd rule out as he won a bit easily in the end at Haydock. I personally jut think Bobs Worth is rock solid with regards trip/ground/form but that doesn't mean I think he is unbeatable. I haven't backed him and won't do until the day as I don't see much point in it. If I can get 4/1 will most likely go e/w as a bet to nothing as I can't see him no placing if fit and well.

Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco are the only two that worry me. I know that's not original given their market prices but hey ho.

Sometimes it just comes down to a gut feeling doesn't it, I have a gut feeling that SC may well turn out to be a flat track specialist, I've got an inkling that he will wilt when coming under proper pressure coming up that hill, I don't think that there's enough evidence that he's jumped up from last year to what he's done this year to suggest he's gold cup winner material.Long run had a right old battle with KS in the race last year and I think they thought it wrecked him for the year, this year it was a stepping stone and they did not go to war with SC through the race. The proximity of WA and TGB doesn't do much for the form either and he has a big question to answer with regards to the track

duffy

WA finished closer to LR at Haydock in 2011 than in 2012.

TGB finished in front of LR at Chelt.

Their proximity hardly detracts from the form.

I do think you are right with regards SC though but we will find out soon enough.

What i'm saying though is that long run was adversely affected right through last season with regards to that first run, incidentally WA was a good deal better horse at the start of last season than he is now...a good deal better!!! he went into the haydock race on the back of a demolition job in the charlie hall himself remember! you wouldn't want him finishing too close to you these days.

This year with long run having a more considered run in the haydock race...how close did TGB get to him in the KG, although I do accept that TGB was beat very early, but I still wouldn't expect him to be in the same ball park as an on song long run.

I would be concerned though about all the horses who contested the KG for future runs this season, GC has already failed through one reason or another, they were battered that day.