Cheltenham Festival
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Bobs Worth - Excellent horse, rock solid favourite. Will love the trip, he loves Cheltenham. But this is a Gold Cup, Synchronised and Imperial Commander looked to have at least 2 better horses on form in their races when they won so solid favourites are just that. Solid, not certs. So if I must nit pick, Bobs has no form lines with Long Run or Silvianco Conti. While Sir Des Champs could well improve for better ground and the Gold Cup trip to be another new challenge. There are plenty of dangers around to not fancy the 3/1 antepost on offer. Also I'd be a tad worried of he went straight to the festival to be honest, I can see them skipping the Argento because of heavy ground if it's on. Also 10/10 winners ran in either Lexus or King George so there's a stat there to be overcome, but not one I give much creedence to.
Sir Des Champs - Frankly the price is crazy, how is he 5/1 based on any form lines at all? The hype around this horse fuels his price. I was all up in the hype too, backed him on the day of his Jewson win for this race. But I certainly think if his jumping improves, the Gold Cup trip is perfect for him. But we're making assumptions on this and to do that we'd need some extra points on his price. At 5/1 he is the least tempting price given I'd expect Flemenstar to beat him again in the Irish Hennessy. If that happens I'd expect him to drift out to a more backable price. He clearly love Cheltenham and the hill and looks like he is a strong stayer.
Silviniaco Conti - Improving young horse, and won well on his two starts earlier this season. He beat Long Run in the Betfair chase, but it isn't wise to take that form literally as we know Long Run is not at his best fto, and they also let Ruby and Conti dictate the race. Connections of Long Run even said they were not going to give him a hard race like he had the year before against Kauto. You only need to see how Long Run closed the gap on Kauto last season in King George to see the improvement from his first run.
Conti strikes me as one whos galloping and jumping style is best suited by flat tracks. His last 3 runs were on flat tracks where he got into that rythym and he was 2l behind Grands Crus in Feltham the season before. He ran poorly at Ascot last season and of course skipped Cheltenham. It was interesting that Nicholls had said Conti hadn't got the cough like a couple of others in his yard so there seems no obvious excuse for his Ascot run.
This season Nicholls had said he may skip Cheltenham again with him even after his Weatherby win, that is until he won at Haydock. Then the King George was thrown out and Gold Cup put in. Could this be due to Owners? It seems a tad bit strange. But Conti does indeed look a strong stayer and I can't see the Gold Cup trip being a problem. What will be a potential problem is a big field, he's never won in a field bigger than 6 over fences, and his biggest he's ever run in was 7 at Ascot where he was 4th.
So for me there are too many questions to be answered here to take 7/1 antepost and given he likely won't run again till the Gold Cup he can't really shorten much. But he is certainly an unexposed horse on the upgrade and he has no form lines with Bobs Worth so there is no solid reason to believe that horse is superior.
Long Run - The horse that is so difficult to get a solid grasp on. Lets start with the obvious, he has some engine, he can gallop at a high pace without ever looking, even for a moment, like he's stopping. If he could jump like a Kauto Star and had Geraghty in the saddle he would be favourite for this in my opinion. But he doesn't and won't. But he is a consistent and very courageous solid 170s horse. He's never been unplaced in his career.
It seems like he will be fitted with Cheek Pieces in the Gold Cup which would help keep him up to his task, he seems to get lonely up front when on his own and idles, see Denman chase win and King George win last season. This problem means he's not a natural front runner, but the cheek pieces seemed to have worked well with First Lieutenant this season who has run far better in the winter ground than he did the season before. So a similar improvement may be seen in Long Run, who's stamina needs to be used by maintaining a fierce gallop, so if the pace slackens he needs to take it up. He for me looks a solid e/w bet, but he's no antepost one, I suspect he will go straight to the Gold Cup and as such is another who would likely be bigger on the morning of the race.
Flemenstar - Utterly superb horse, absolute beast of a jumping galloper, I believe he's among the 3 best chasers in training. Period. But he travelled like a different class to the rest in the Lexus before fading late to be nabbed by First Lieutenant and Tidal Bay. So this inability to keep on over 3miles at Leopardstown would make him an unlikely stayer in a Gold Cup which will be run at a very fierce pace. I think he would be unstoppable in a King George if allowed to bowl along in front. I expect him to win the Hennessy in Feb if the ground is no worse than soft as rather than be restrained like he was in Lexus he will be allowed to bowl along in front & his jumping will have his rivals in trouble and too far back to catch him. Think Kauto's last King george win. But after 3 miles around Cheltenham he has another 2 1/2 furlongs up a hill at a track he's never been to before, in his first time abroad. It's too much imo. He is no bet at all in this race (bar a nailed on back to lay scenario) despite being potentially the best horse in the race.
First Lieutenant - Very admirable horse who clearly excels on good ground at Cheltenham. His two best performances of his career have come off a break at the festival. He has posted much improved performances this season since fitted with cheek pieces at a time of the season when he runs on unsuitable soft ground and has races come thick and fast. It's all part of the Mouse Morris prep which has worked so often at the festival, like last season and the season before we should expect considerable improvement between his early season winter runs and his Cheltenham festival performance. He is no match for Bobs Worth but I fully believe he will not be far away from that horse in the final result, probably somewhere between the 8l he was beaten in Hennessy and the 2l he was beaten in RSA. If Bobs Worh under performs there's no reason in my opinion FL cannot take this.
The Giant Bolster - Was a far weaker race last year and think he just ran a Blinder tbh. I'm quite sure that wasn't Long Run at his best as it's the only time in his career he has failed to keep up the gallop. It was the 4th run of a Long tough season and winning a Gold Cup always takes a lot out of a horse, look at Denman, Kauto, Imperial Commander. Now look at the rest of the first 6 home last year, they belong in handicaps. It was an inferior renewal and this season he will have a far far tougher task. He isn't of interest at 25/1.
Captain Chris - Was kept out of trouble and nearly mugged Long Run at Kempton, he won't have such a chance to do that in the Gold Cup. Also given how much he jumps right he'd have to be a 180+ horse to win this going left handed over a trip he's never even tried before. Why would he reverse form with Long Run at all??
So we come down to it and we have to say there is no antepost bet to be made at all here. Every horse looks either too short or would be bigger on the day. Not since Kicking King's win has there been a Gold Cup without Kauto Star and this looks to be a fitting renewal in the post Kauto era. If I had to give suggestion it would be wait to back SDC if he comes 2nd in Hennessy and drifts to near 8/1. Or Day of the race if Long Run has cheek pieces and is 8/1 he'd be a solid e/w play. First Lieutenant would be another solid e/w play dotr. But antepost nothing stands out.
Something inside me keeps seeing a repeat of the RSA finish here with Bobs and FL duking it out again with the same result.
Gun to my head first 3 home on good to soft or better going
Bobs Worth
First Lieutenant 5l
Long Run 1l
Sir Des Champs - Frankly the price is crazy, how is he 5/1 based on any form lines at all? The hype around this horse fuels his price. I was all up in the hype too, backed him on the day of his Jewson win for this race. But I certainly think if his jumping improves, the Gold Cup trip is perfect for him. But we're making assumptions on this and to do that we'd need some extra points on his price. At 5/1 he is the least tempting price given I'd expect Flemenstar to beat him again in the Irish Hennessy. If that happens I'd expect him to drift out to a more backable price. He clearly love Cheltenham and the hill and looks like he is a strong stayer.
Silviniaco Conti - Improving young horse, and won well on his two starts earlier this season. He beat Long Run in the Betfair chase, but it isn't wise to take that form literally as we know Long Run is not at his best fto, and they also let Ruby and Conti dictate the race. Connections of Long Run even said they were not going to give him a hard race like he had the year before against Kauto. You only need to see how Long Run closed the gap on Kauto last season in King George to see the improvement from his first run.
Conti strikes me as one whos galloping and jumping style is best suited by flat tracks. His last 3 runs were on flat tracks where he got into that rythym and he was 2l behind Grands Crus in Feltham the season before. He ran poorly at Ascot last season and of course skipped Cheltenham. It was interesting that Nicholls had said Conti hadn't got the cough like a couple of others in his yard so there seems no obvious excuse for his Ascot run.
This season Nicholls had said he may skip Cheltenham again with him even after his Weatherby win, that is until he won at Haydock. Then the King George was thrown out and Gold Cup put in. Could this be due to Owners? It seems a tad bit strange. But Conti does indeed look a strong stayer and I can't see the Gold Cup trip being a problem. What will be a potential problem is a big field, he's never won in a field bigger than 6 over fences, and his biggest he's ever run in was 7 at Ascot where he was 4th.
So for me there are too many questions to be answered here to take 7/1 antepost and given he likely won't run again till the Gold Cup he can't really shorten much. But he is certainly an unexposed horse on the upgrade and he has no form lines with Bobs Worth so there is no solid reason to believe that horse is superior.
Long Run - The horse that is so difficult to get a solid grasp on. Lets start with the obvious, he has some engine, he can gallop at a high pace without ever looking, even for a moment, like he's stopping. If he could jump like a Kauto Star and had Geraghty in the saddle he would be favourite for this in my opinion. But he doesn't and won't. But he is a consistent and very courageous solid 170s horse. He's never been unplaced in his career.
It seems like he will be fitted with Cheek Pieces in the Gold Cup which would help keep him up to his task, he seems to get lonely up front when on his own and idles, see Denman chase win and King George win last season. This problem means he's not a natural front runner, but the cheek pieces seemed to have worked well with First Lieutenant this season who has run far better in the winter ground than he did the season before. So a similar improvement may be seen in Long Run, who's stamina needs to be used by maintaining a fierce gallop, so if the pace slackens he needs to take it up. He for me looks a solid e/w bet, but he's no antepost one, I suspect he will go straight to the Gold Cup and as such is another who would likely be bigger on the morning of the race.
Flemenstar - Utterly superb horse, absolute beast of a jumping galloper, I believe he's among the 3 best chasers in training. Period. But he travelled like a different class to the rest in the Lexus before fading late to be nabbed by First Lieutenant and Tidal Bay. So this inability to keep on over 3miles at Leopardstown would make him an unlikely stayer in a Gold Cup which will be run at a very fierce pace. I think he would be unstoppable in a King George if allowed to bowl along in front. I expect him to win the Hennessy in Feb if the ground is no worse than soft as rather than be restrained like he was in Lexus he will be allowed to bowl along in front & his jumping will have his rivals in trouble and too far back to catch him. Think Kauto's last King george win. But after 3 miles around Cheltenham he has another 2 1/2 furlongs up a hill at a track he's never been to before, in his first time abroad. It's too much imo. He is no bet at all in this race (bar a nailed on back to lay scenario) despite being potentially the best horse in the race.
First Lieutenant - Very admirable horse who clearly excels on good ground at Cheltenham. His two best performances of his career have come off a break at the festival. He has posted much improved performances this season since fitted with cheek pieces at a time of the season when he runs on unsuitable soft ground and has races come thick and fast. It's all part of the Mouse Morris prep which has worked so often at the festival, like last season and the season before we should expect considerable improvement between his early season winter runs and his Cheltenham festival performance. He is no match for Bobs Worth but I fully believe he will not be far away from that horse in the final result, probably somewhere between the 8l he was beaten in Hennessy and the 2l he was beaten in RSA. If Bobs Worh under performs there's no reason in my opinion FL cannot take this.
The Giant Bolster - Was a far weaker race last year and think he just ran a Blinder tbh. I'm quite sure that wasn't Long Run at his best as it's the only time in his career he has failed to keep up the gallop. It was the 4th run of a Long tough season and winning a Gold Cup always takes a lot out of a horse, look at Denman, Kauto, Imperial Commander. Now look at the rest of the first 6 home last year, they belong in handicaps. It was an inferior renewal and this season he will have a far far tougher task. He isn't of interest at 25/1.
Captain Chris - Was kept out of trouble and nearly mugged Long Run at Kempton, he won't have such a chance to do that in the Gold Cup. Also given how much he jumps right he'd have to be a 180+ horse to win this going left handed over a trip he's never even tried before. Why would he reverse form with Long Run at all??
So we come down to it and we have to say there is no antepost bet to be made at all here. Every horse looks either too short or would be bigger on the day. Not since Kicking King's win has there been a Gold Cup without Kauto Star and this looks to be a fitting renewal in the post Kauto era. If I had to give suggestion it would be wait to back SDC if he comes 2nd in Hennessy and drifts to near 8/1. Or Day of the race if Long Run has cheek pieces and is 8/1 he'd be a solid e/w play. First Lieutenant would be another solid e/w play dotr. But antepost nothing stands out.
Something inside me keeps seeing a repeat of the RSA finish here with Bobs and FL duking it out again with the same result.
Gun to my head first 3 home on good to soft or better going
Bobs Worth
First Lieutenant 5l
Long Run 1l
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Was never gonna mention him cos he may not run in the race.Plus CV dont like the idea of him winning the race.
But if he does run it means he has his conditions,and given he has the best form arguably of all the contenders this season,he would be a major player.
Mind you Flemenstar and FL got plenty of mention and they may not run either!!
Still,its a good write up CV.
But if he does run it means he has his conditions,and given he has the best form arguably of all the contenders this season,he would be a major player.
Mind you Flemenstar and FL got plenty of mention and they may not run either!!
Still,its a good write up CV.
Tidal Bay? He won't run, more and more times since Lexus owner and trainer have said that. I ain't gonna waste time like ye lot talking about horses like Oscar Whiskey and Tidal Bay when they are most likely not running in those races. It's a total waste of time, it's not even 50:50 they run.
So just leave them out of discussion until it's at least looking like they might run.
ie Don't talk about Tidal Bay please. He won't run.
So just leave them out of discussion until it's at least looking like they might run.
ie Don't talk about Tidal Bay please. He won't run.
Will if its soft,so will OW,and they might both win!!
oops sorry mate
oops sorry mate
Conti does have form lines with bobs worth and will win this race. There we go winner of the gold cup in two sentences.
Formline was right handed at Kempton prior to Bob Worths breathing operation. At Ascot he even beat Sil Conti, despite it being right handed.
Bobs Worth also clearly excels at Cheltenham.
Bobs Worth also clearly excels at Cheltenham.
True but Silviniaco Conti surely didn't run to form at Ascot, just as Bobs probably didn't run to form at Kempton. It's therefore a bit of a coin toss as to who you prefer but one is twice the price of the other.
I love Silviniaco Conti's jumping and for me, the Cheltenham issue is not a worry until we know it is. If he had disappointed there, or at a similar track, fair enough. Likewise, if his jumping and/or running style suggested it would be an issue, I'd be more inclined to worry. But... he looks a very strong stayer, he has a turn of foot, travels comfortably in his races, is not over-big, and jumps really well. Nothing in his arsenal suggests he needs a flat track.
I love Silviniaco Conti's jumping and for me, the Cheltenham issue is not a worry until we know it is. If he had disappointed there, or at a similar track, fair enough. Likewise, if his jumping and/or running style suggested it would be an issue, I'd be more inclined to worry. But... he looks a very strong stayer, he has a turn of foot, travels comfortably in his races, is not over-big, and jumps really well. Nothing in his arsenal suggests he needs a flat track.
Sil Conti didn't perform because Ascot is not a flat track.
I think that's a massive assumption. Many of Nicholls horses were running below-par at or around that time and that seems a perfectly reasonable explanation. He stuffed Captain Chris off levels as a four-year-old at Chepstow, which is a pretty good performance on a testing, undulating track.
From the Racing Post, Nicholls performance by month in the jumps season proper of the 2011/2012 season read:
October - 15/58, 26%
November - 25/102, 25%
December - 20/95, 21%
January - 16/74, 22%
February - 5/47, 11%
March - 16/75, 21%
April - 21/82, 26%
October - 15/58, 26%
November - 25/102, 25%
December - 20/95, 21%
January - 16/74, 22%
February - 5/47, 11%
March - 16/75, 21%
April - 21/82, 26%
Sorry forgot the "or" before that last post. Bobs does not like the right handed tracks, Sil Conti possibly doesn't like the stiff undulating tracks. No real excuse for Ascot defeat. While he skipped the RSA last year and was intending to skip Cheltenham again this year until he won at Haydock. There has to be some reasons for this.
But it's hard to make assumptions based on one bad run at Ascot, also he hasn't run at Cheltenham in a chase so we don't know how he'll handle it.
Also there's the small field argument, he's run and won in small fields with only one real rival. He's never been to the festival, how will he cope with the hustle and bustle of the Gold Cup?
We've plenty of questions to be answered here, they are legitimate concerns and assuming he handles the track and the big field does that make him a what 5/1 or 4/1 shot based on talent? Not in my opinion.
His price is too short with those reservations. He might be one for next year though if he runs a solid race. But this is too competitive and we've horses who love Cheltenham in Bobs, Sir Des and FL in the field along with a former Gold Cup winner. They have the experience edge.
But it's hard to make assumptions based on one bad run at Ascot, also he hasn't run at Cheltenham in a chase so we don't know how he'll handle it.
Also there's the small field argument, he's run and won in small fields with only one real rival. He's never been to the festival, how will he cope with the hustle and bustle of the Gold Cup?
We've plenty of questions to be answered here, they are legitimate concerns and assuming he handles the track and the big field does that make him a what 5/1 or 4/1 shot based on talent? Not in my opinion.
His price is too short with those reservations. He might be one for next year though if he runs a solid race. But this is too competitive and we've horses who love Cheltenham in Bobs, Sir Des and FL in the field along with a former Gold Cup winner. They have the experience edge.
His performances on flat tracks in chases reads 12111 while his form over undulating tracks in chases read 34.
There's the skipping Cheltenham last season and intended skipping of Cheltenham this season until Haydock win. Combined with the small fields he's been able to dictate, and also never racing at the festival.
There's plenty of questions to be answered there in my view to consider 7/1 no sort of value for this at all
There's the skipping Cheltenham last season and intended skipping of Cheltenham this season until Haydock win. Combined with the small fields he's been able to dictate, and also never racing at the festival.
There's plenty of questions to be answered there in my view to consider 7/1 no sort of value for this at all
After winning the Lexus Ruby was asked about tidal bay re the the gold cup, Ruby's reply was that he'd love tidal to go for the world hurdle. I was a bit surprised when he said it because normally says feck all after a race so reading between the lines i thought to myself he must think silvianaco conti is a machine. I looked at his win in the betfair chase and to me that is the best performance of the season so 7/1 is great value iimo.
Always good to debate these things and I always respect your opinions.
The thing is, he's available at 7-1 as opposed to 3s for Bobs Worth, and I am still not sure Bobs is good enough to win the race. His form is absolutely rock solid but I wonder whether many of his supporters honestly think he's the best horse in the race. That might not necessarily matter, or stop him from winning, but I do think he's way too short. When you compare his achievements to those of his under-fire stablemate Long Run, the prices don't look right.
Anyway, back to the Silviniaco Conti angle... I just don't see any of the potential obstacles being a problem for him. He's never had the chance to prove himself in a big field but I'd say he's the best equipped out of the market leaders to deal with that as he's a good jumper and smooth traveller, who can get himself out of trouble if he needs to. It's funny how people can look at the same doubts and come to such different conclusions. For me the real concern is whether he's good enough but we won't likely know that until the day.
I am a big fan of Sir Des Champs but his jumping is a big concern, whereas I'm not sure First Lieutenant sees the trip out well enough to get home. The one lesson I have learned in spades over the years at Cheltenham is how important jumping and stamina are in Gold Cups, and that's why I'm really happy to take the chance on Silviniaco at 7s or more.
The thing is, he's available at 7-1 as opposed to 3s for Bobs Worth, and I am still not sure Bobs is good enough to win the race. His form is absolutely rock solid but I wonder whether many of his supporters honestly think he's the best horse in the race. That might not necessarily matter, or stop him from winning, but I do think he's way too short. When you compare his achievements to those of his under-fire stablemate Long Run, the prices don't look right.
Anyway, back to the Silviniaco Conti angle... I just don't see any of the potential obstacles being a problem for him. He's never had the chance to prove himself in a big field but I'd say he's the best equipped out of the market leaders to deal with that as he's a good jumper and smooth traveller, who can get himself out of trouble if he needs to. It's funny how people can look at the same doubts and come to such different conclusions. For me the real concern is whether he's good enough but we won't likely know that until the day.
I am a big fan of Sir Des Champs but his jumping is a big concern, whereas I'm not sure First Lieutenant sees the trip out well enough to get home. The one lesson I have learned in spades over the years at Cheltenham is how important jumping and stamina are in Gold Cups, and that's why I'm really happy to take the chance on Silviniaco at 7s or more.
I am a Bobs Worth supporter,two ante post bets 10s and 7s.
Tom thats a great question.
I hope BW is the best horse in the race.
I will back another two nearer the day,definately SDC, and if FL goes for ryanair i would go with SC.
I think LR will run his normal race without winning.
I just want all the big guns to run,and treat us all.
Tom thats a great question.
I hope BW is the best horse in the race.
I will back another two nearer the day,definately SDC, and if FL goes for ryanair i would go with SC.
I think LR will run his normal race without winning.
I just want all the big guns to run,and treat us all.
Conti has won at Ascot over hurdles he traveled like a dream in that race, he didn't run that bad at Cheltenham over hurdles either. He's probably the best jumper in the race, he's so economical and loves going left handed. He will be having one more run at Newbury in February then will be primed and readied for the gold cup, I'm just debating whether to have my wedge on before Newbury because If he beats Long Run easily there, he will go off a strong 2nd fav on the day imo, possibly even fav.
Tom it's important to note I have no strong opinion on any of the horses at their current prices. Had you put up Bobs Worth I'd be now pointing out why 3/1 is no price to be backing him at and expand on the reasons why.
Brooks, hurdles and chases at the same track is so so different. Track and direction preferences are far more pronounced in chases. You rarely hear people talking about hurdlers and preferences, yet it's so important in chases. So you cannot bring crossover saying he did x y z over hurdles as it's of no relevance in chases.
jansey, it's important to note how cheek pieces improved First Lieutenant this season, if Long Run is fitted with them it should reduce his chances of idling when in front like we saw in Denman Chase and King George last year. He could now hit the front and keep up the gallop. It's important to note imv.
As for Sir Des he clearly jumps very very well on good ground at Cheltenham, I think he's not liking jumping out of soft ground, I've seen him make mistakes before jumping out of it. While at Chelts he was superb.
Back to First Lieutenant, if they didn't think he would stay why was he making the running in soft on 11-5 in the Hennessy which is over Gold Cup trip? He was ridden like a proper stayer that day, it takes quite a lot out of a horse making the running, they have fresh air to break (ie more wind resistance) think cycling peleton. Trainers know considerably more than we do about their horses so it's little bits like this we need to note. I think he'll be fine over the trip, I can't see any evidence of him as a non stayer. Just needs good ground.
Brooks, hurdles and chases at the same track is so so different. Track and direction preferences are far more pronounced in chases. You rarely hear people talking about hurdlers and preferences, yet it's so important in chases. So you cannot bring crossover saying he did x y z over hurdles as it's of no relevance in chases.
jansey, it's important to note how cheek pieces improved First Lieutenant this season, if Long Run is fitted with them it should reduce his chances of idling when in front like we saw in Denman Chase and King George last year. He could now hit the front and keep up the gallop. It's important to note imv.
As for Sir Des he clearly jumps very very well on good ground at Cheltenham, I think he's not liking jumping out of soft ground, I've seen him make mistakes before jumping out of it. While at Chelts he was superb.
Back to First Lieutenant, if they didn't think he would stay why was he making the running in soft on 11-5 in the Hennessy which is over Gold Cup trip? He was ridden like a proper stayer that day, it takes quite a lot out of a horse making the running, they have fresh air to break (ie more wind resistance) think cycling peleton. Trainers know considerably more than we do about their horses so it's little bits like this we need to note. I think he'll be fine over the trip, I can't see any evidence of him as a non stayer. Just needs good ground.
Long Run didn't even get to the front to idle in the King George last year. He arguable idled when beating Burton Port but maybe not given the weight concession and how far he finished in front of him in the GC.
I don't know why Bobs worth supporters wouldn't view him as the best horse? Loves Cheltenham, has the beaten of most of the others through form lines given that I think he won the hennessy cosily. I think people are looking for alternatives because of the price but he looks an obvious winner for me.
Last year was 2012, Long Run won the King George, he idled when in front then Captain Chris stole a lead and Long Run reeled him in. Long Run also idled in Denman Chase when beating Burton Port. Hence why they are thinking of fitting cheek pieces.
Think Captain Chris was helped greatly by the hash up at the final fence,not sure he would have led much but for that.
If LR could jump well he would be a lot better,hes pretty good now to be fair,but his jumping aint.He never falls,but he aint half clumsy over them at times,and he hits a few as well.He must have some engine on him to win races,top ones at that.
Anyway for those reasons,hes not for me.
My main hope is FL,think if any horse is value its him,and i was quiet happy to take the 14 with VC after the Lexus.I thought he stayed ok that day,and given hes normally at his game in March,i expect improvement,and hopefully he will stay the extra 2f.In the Hennessey i think he ran a bit too keen during the race,and did not get home well cos of that.
Bobsworth as has been said is solid but pretty short,but hes bound to be there at the finish,and we will all be afraid of him if we aint got him on our side.I hope to be in a position to back him on the day,just depends on price.
Im sticking my neck out as re Conti,and saying i just dont think he will be as good round Cheltenham,and i think deep down his trainer thinks the same,plus i aint sure hes good enough anyway,although he does jump well.
SDC if his jumping is as good as it was last year is a major player,has to be,but his last run has put me off.Yes he nearly won the Lexus,but he cannot jump like that in the Gold Cup and get away with it.He one to watch with great interest next time in regards his jumping.
Flemenstar looks to me a non stayer at this distance,and i would run him in the Queen Mother or skip the festival.I like CV think hes one of the best 2 or 3 chasers in the game right now,he was by some way the best in the Lexus,and think 2m round Cheltenham would suit him fine and could produce a race we would never forget with SS.
One i backed at the start of the season is TGB at odds that compared to LR were in my view ridiculous.
I do think he will run his race but i think this race is a fair bit better than last years,so ive given up on that.
I think ive mentioned the winner there somewhere!!
Unless of course its soft ground,then another comes into the picture big time,but this is CV 's thread,and he dont want him mentioned!!
If LR could jump well he would be a lot better,hes pretty good now to be fair,but his jumping aint.He never falls,but he aint half clumsy over them at times,and he hits a few as well.He must have some engine on him to win races,top ones at that.
Anyway for those reasons,hes not for me.
My main hope is FL,think if any horse is value its him,and i was quiet happy to take the 14 with VC after the Lexus.I thought he stayed ok that day,and given hes normally at his game in March,i expect improvement,and hopefully he will stay the extra 2f.In the Hennessey i think he ran a bit too keen during the race,and did not get home well cos of that.
Bobsworth as has been said is solid but pretty short,but hes bound to be there at the finish,and we will all be afraid of him if we aint got him on our side.I hope to be in a position to back him on the day,just depends on price.
Im sticking my neck out as re Conti,and saying i just dont think he will be as good round Cheltenham,and i think deep down his trainer thinks the same,plus i aint sure hes good enough anyway,although he does jump well.
SDC if his jumping is as good as it was last year is a major player,has to be,but his last run has put me off.Yes he nearly won the Lexus,but he cannot jump like that in the Gold Cup and get away with it.He one to watch with great interest next time in regards his jumping.
Flemenstar looks to me a non stayer at this distance,and i would run him in the Queen Mother or skip the festival.I like CV think hes one of the best 2 or 3 chasers in the game right now,he was by some way the best in the Lexus,and think 2m round Cheltenham would suit him fine and could produce a race we would never forget with SS.
One i backed at the start of the season is TGB at odds that compared to LR were in my view ridiculous.
I do think he will run his race but i think this race is a fair bit better than last years,so ive given up on that.
I think ive mentioned the winner there somewhere!!
Unless of course its soft ground,then another comes into the picture big time,but this is CV 's thread,and he dont want him mentioned!!
I mentioned on another Gold Cup thread that I thought Conti missing the King George was a positive, despite of the trends. With the bigger picture in mind, I'm sure the owners watched that on TV and were glad they didn't send their up and coming star to a gruelling bog where he'd be almost walking over the line.
In other years, with normal King George ground, I'd say it would be a negative, but with the ground of this season I'm not sure running in it will mean everything (surely a race like that will leave a big mark on a horse). I personally hope it doesn't wreck Cue Card's season, but we won't know that until next time.
I haven't backed Conti yet, I've backed SDC and Flemenstar, but may back him in Flem doesn't win. I still hold a bit of hope that Flem will get the distance on better ground and ridden differently. As you say, he's all class, and I think his class may be able to get him through. I don't want to dig up old arguments, but Kauto probably preffered 3m round Kempton, as opposed to 3m2 around Cheltenham, but it was his class, imo, that over come this to win his Gold Cups, rather than him running at his optimum trip and course, and this could (that's a very big could) also apply to Flemenstar.
Another thing about Conti is that he has soundly beaten a strong one from last year. It has been mentioned about Darlan only beating last years novices, but that's largely what BW, SDC, Flem and First Leiutenent have been doing. None of them have raced against a Gold Cup benchmark from last year, they have been largely running against last year's novices. That would worry me slightly if I was betting big in this race.
In other years, with normal King George ground, I'd say it would be a negative, but with the ground of this season I'm not sure running in it will mean everything (surely a race like that will leave a big mark on a horse). I personally hope it doesn't wreck Cue Card's season, but we won't know that until next time.
I haven't backed Conti yet, I've backed SDC and Flemenstar, but may back him in Flem doesn't win. I still hold a bit of hope that Flem will get the distance on better ground and ridden differently. As you say, he's all class, and I think his class may be able to get him through. I don't want to dig up old arguments, but Kauto probably preffered 3m round Kempton, as opposed to 3m2 around Cheltenham, but it was his class, imo, that over come this to win his Gold Cups, rather than him running at his optimum trip and course, and this could (that's a very big could) also apply to Flemenstar.
Another thing about Conti is that he has soundly beaten a strong one from last year. It has been mentioned about Darlan only beating last years novices, but that's largely what BW, SDC, Flem and First Leiutenent have been doing. None of them have raced against a Gold Cup benchmark from last year, they have been largely running against last year's novices. That would worry me slightly if I was betting big in this race.
I am in the very fortunate position to have backed Bobs Worth to win Hennessy / Gold Cup double @ 28/1 and Long Run to win King George / Gold Cup double at 20/1. I backed Sir Des Champs at 10/1 after his Jewson win last year. While like Bud I backed First Lieutenant e/w 14/1 non runner free bet.
So that's my hand in this. But had I not placed those bets when I did, looking at the prices currently available I'd defo wait till day of the race to back anything.
So that's my hand in this. But had I not placed those bets when I did, looking at the prices currently available I'd defo wait till day of the race to back anything.
very fortunate position is putting it mildly.
Can afford to play on the day and cover everything if thats what you want.
Can afford to play on the day and cover everything if thats what you want.
Some things go well like that, My Neptune betting is a total mess to be honest. While Big Bucks and Al Ferof injuries have been painful non runners this season. You win some you lose some. But saying that I haven't won anything in this race yet and I don't have a strong preference for any of the top 5 to be honest.
The argument was Conti not handling undulations, there is undulations over both the hurdles track and over fences at Chepstow, Ascot and Cheltenham He has a 1 by his name at 2 of those tracks and a respectable 3rd over a trip to short at another. Therefore the flat track bully argument isn't even an argument it's just people trying to find an excuse. Conti is a very well balanced horse that jumps very well, he will have absolute no problems whatsoever jumping a fence running down a hill or up a hill. Besides don't you think Nicholls would of schooled him at gradients. If Conti doesn't win it will have have nothing to do with the track, It will probably because he wasn't good enough on the day.
I think he's going to be a special horse over fences though and I really do think he will win
I think he's going to be a special horse over fences though and I really do think he will win
Apologies on the King George front. Seems mad a race a couple of weeks ago was last year :). Having watched the race I am guessing you meant he idled before the second last and speeded up again once seeing CC?
Brooks, hurdles and chases are different. He has to get into a rhythm for jumping fences and going up and down hill can break a horses rhythm. That is why horses show preferenes for tracks far more over fences. So as I said hurdles form has nothing to do with chases form.
I'm pulling my hair out when people try compare the two.
I'm pulling my hair out when people try compare the two.
I know hurdles and and fences are different. But there still running on undulated tracks and leaving the ground, It all boils down to if you think Conti has the balance to jump over a fence and land going up hill or down hill. He looks like a well balanced horse to me so I think I'll take that chance.
It's actually to do with him losing twice on undulating tracks over fences, combined with Nicholls choosing to skip Cheltenham last season. Along with his small field form where he can dictate. They are all valid questions to be answered and they are not reflected in his price.
He has no piece of rock solid form in the book either. We knew Long Run was not going to get into a battle first time out and on many occasions connections said they weren't going to give him a hard race. Combined with the fact everyone agreed Haydock is not his track. So they let Ruby with a race fit horse who loves flat tracks dictate the race. There is question marks over the form and always is with that race.
So we have to question the form of his win over Long Run, and we have to question why he's been kept to flat tracks, small fields and avoided Cheltenham. So with those questions to answer I can't see 7/1 as any kind of value. This season.
He has no piece of rock solid form in the book either. We knew Long Run was not going to get into a battle first time out and on many occasions connections said they weren't going to give him a hard race. Combined with the fact everyone agreed Haydock is not his track. So they let Ruby with a race fit horse who loves flat tracks dictate the race. There is question marks over the form and always is with that race.
So we have to question the form of his win over Long Run, and we have to question why he's been kept to flat tracks, small fields and avoided Cheltenham. So with those questions to answer I can't see 7/1 as any kind of value. This season.
Isn't conti priced up on the back of winning a charlie hall against a bunch of 2nd raters and a befair chase where he was handed the race on a plate by connections of a horse who having learned a lesson from the previous year in the same race were only interested in getting a good blow into their horse and were happy to leave ruby have his own way up front?
I hope that conti doesn't have too bad a time of it that he is ruined for the aintree race that will be very much his cup of tea, a nice flat track up against some GC also rans and other just below top class level horses....that's him in a nutshell, IMO
Well hes no superstar on what weve seen.Could he be?possibly,but not for me.
He only dictated the pace last time out because he had to, he by know means wanted to be where he was, he wanted to sit in behind just as he did in the Charlie Hall. He was there to be shot at but held them all very comfortably.
He lost to Cue Card not because of the undulations but because of the distance. It became a sprint in the end, which was always going to favor Cue Card. His other defeat came when there was a cloud under the Nicholls yard, but not only that it came at a time where Nicholls usually eases off his horses that aren't Festival bound.
Nicholls has just mentioned Rocky Creek might not run in the RSA. It's quite obvious any horse he thinks has a future at the top he'd rather take his time with as opposed to ruining them in the RSA.
He lost to Cue Card not because of the undulations but because of the distance. It became a sprint in the end, which was always going to favor Cue Card. His other defeat came when there was a cloud under the Nicholls yard, but not only that it came at a time where Nicholls usually eases off his horses that aren't Festival bound.
Nicholls has just mentioned Rocky Creek might not run in the RSA. It's quite obvious any horse he thinks has a future at the top he'd rather take his time with as opposed to ruining them in the RSA.
Anyone spotted the stand out bet with the bookies going NRNB?
The only thing that I find fascinating with conti that makes me half wonder about him is nicholls seemingly staunch confidence in him over AF, I would fancy the latter more for the GC but conti has always been the one for that with AF ear-marked for the KG.
Could find out next year if he was right to think that.
AF is a real Cheltenham horse,maybe he thinks hes a doubtful stayer?
AF is a real Cheltenham horse,maybe he thinks hes a doubtful stayer?
Conti's name is practically on Kauto's box so that how much Paul thinks of him. Such a shame Dom Alco died as he was really starting to sire some excellent National Hunt horses.
Conti won the betfair on merit he had log run in trouble along way from home and as usual Henderson had an excuse for him, if he was close enough to conti I'm sure he would have got into a battle with him. Conti IMO is the best value in the race at the moment.
I'd be very confident of Conti finishing in front of Long Run in this race. Long Run barely beat Captain Chris at Kempton, lost in a weaker Gold Cup last year, and beaten in a Grade 1 fairly comfortably by one of his chief rivals in this race.
> Bobs Worth has only had 1 run outside of novice company and Tidal Bay put in the best performance of any in the Hennessey imo
> Sir Des Champs is winless this season and although has an excellent record at the Festival, he's taken in the easier races in the Martin Pipe and Jewson
> First Leuitenent, again has an excellent festival record, but on all known form lines has it all to do with Bobs Worth
> Flemenstar has staying doubts
So overall there are big doubts for me over nearly all of the runners. Imo Tidal Bay has the best form in the book this season, and Conti is the only second season chaser to have beaten one of the major players in last years Gold Cup. He won the Betfair fair and square imo, and is open to any amount of improvement, but like others, there are question marks about him too.
> Bobs Worth has only had 1 run outside of novice company and Tidal Bay put in the best performance of any in the Hennessey imo
> Sir Des Champs is winless this season and although has an excellent record at the Festival, he's taken in the easier races in the Martin Pipe and Jewson
> First Leuitenent, again has an excellent festival record, but on all known form lines has it all to do with Bobs Worth
> Flemenstar has staying doubts
So overall there are big doubts for me over nearly all of the runners. Imo Tidal Bay has the best form in the book this season, and Conti is the only second season chaser to have beaten one of the major players in last years Gold Cup. He won the Betfair fair and square imo, and is open to any amount of improvement, but like others, there are question marks about him too.
Yes, when weighing up conti's chances, much depends on how you view the haydock race, my view of it as mentioned before is that long runs connections were barely interested in it, I think they feel that they left his season behind in that race last year weren't prepared to do the same again this time around, only an opinion though, conti may well be the better horse and better stayer, I don't see it though.
Interesting opinions on here, I personally think that Captain Chris has been overlooked. He's a horse who as a youngster was thought to have needed good ground and his performances this season on heavy indicate to me he is back to his best. He was good enough to beat Finian's Rainbow in the Arkle and ran his best race of last season in the Ryanair. Now I know we are far from guaranteed good ground at the Festival but his races this season show he can handle soft and if it is good come March I think 25/1 NRFB with VC would be value.
The left handed question would be a concern with captain chris though wouldn't it?, he went right in the ryanair despite coming 4th.
it is a concern, I think his jumping in the Ryanair was worse because of what happened in the Argento in January. I think the horse was just wrong for the whole of last season after his mishap at Exeter. There will probably be one too good for him in March but i'm very confident of a place and 25/1 is a backable EW price for me. I won't be surprised if i'm wrong though!
Sir Des Champs for me. Big time. The way people are going on it's as if he fell 3 times last time out and got beat a distance. He got beat under a length and was at his best at the end of the race. The gold medal doesn't get handed out in December. He is being trained for one day and one day only.If the race was over the Gold Cup distance who would have won? 2 from 2 at Cheltenham, will be brought to its peak in March.
Bobs Worth deservedly favourite. 4 from 4 at the track, Hennessey winner, everything is in its favour except it will need to run again before March as it aint winning a Gold Cup after only one run.
Silviniaco Conti - you get the feeling that they think this is a superstar. Walsh was buzzing after the Betfair Chase and Nicholls had no hesitation in nominating the Gold Cup. No track form so we don't know but I remember a massive debate over a certain Hurricane Fly and we know what happened there.
Long Run is solid but beat last year in a weaker renewal, endured a gruelling King George and only one horse has ever recaptured the Gold Cup. Poor value at mo for me.
First Lieutenant - will end up in Ryanair. He will not stay the Gold Cup trip. Owner will realise he has a potential Gold Cup winner already in this, nothing in his own race, and the Ryanair is perfect for him. 10/1 NR Free bet is the bet of the festival for me.
Flemenstar - you're having a laugh if you think this will stay 3m 2f. No other way of putting it. Good at 2m 4 but running on empty over 3m. How is he gonna stay another 2f on an uphill finish? As for running in Champion Chase, Sprinter Sacre won't be trembling in his box for me and 9/2 for that is just rubbish.
Tidal Bay - 12yo for god's sake. Has been spanked in a Gold Cup before, horses beat in a previous Gold cup have an awful record. Similar for The Giant Bolster who isn't good enough either.
Captain Chris is a fair outsider. Understand he is better on right handed tracks but has an Arkle to his name and 2nd in King George there. Wouldn't be for me but can understand his supporters.
Grands Crus won't stay 3m 2f and should run in Ryanair
1st Sir Des Champs
2nd Bobs Worth
3rd Silviniaco Conti
Bobs Worth deservedly favourite. 4 from 4 at the track, Hennessey winner, everything is in its favour except it will need to run again before March as it aint winning a Gold Cup after only one run.
Silviniaco Conti - you get the feeling that they think this is a superstar. Walsh was buzzing after the Betfair Chase and Nicholls had no hesitation in nominating the Gold Cup. No track form so we don't know but I remember a massive debate over a certain Hurricane Fly and we know what happened there.
Long Run is solid but beat last year in a weaker renewal, endured a gruelling King George and only one horse has ever recaptured the Gold Cup. Poor value at mo for me.
First Lieutenant - will end up in Ryanair. He will not stay the Gold Cup trip. Owner will realise he has a potential Gold Cup winner already in this, nothing in his own race, and the Ryanair is perfect for him. 10/1 NR Free bet is the bet of the festival for me.
Flemenstar - you're having a laugh if you think this will stay 3m 2f. No other way of putting it. Good at 2m 4 but running on empty over 3m. How is he gonna stay another 2f on an uphill finish? As for running in Champion Chase, Sprinter Sacre won't be trembling in his box for me and 9/2 for that is just rubbish.
Tidal Bay - 12yo for god's sake. Has been spanked in a Gold Cup before, horses beat in a previous Gold cup have an awful record. Similar for The Giant Bolster who isn't good enough either.
Captain Chris is a fair outsider. Understand he is better on right handed tracks but has an Arkle to his name and 2nd in King George there. Wouldn't be for me but can understand his supporters.
Grands Crus won't stay 3m 2f and should run in Ryanair
1st Sir Des Champs
2nd Bobs Worth
3rd Silviniaco Conti
Ballydoyle - good write up. We have a very similar read on the race.....even down to First Lt and why he will run in the Ryanair and win it. My only difference is I see Long Run in the first three. Not bold enough to predict the actual finishing order but my first three home are SDC, Bobs Worth and Long Run.
Tidal Bay has no chance yet beat your confident selection fair and square lto at a distance too short ideally for him.
Best hope it aint soft ground imo!!
Best hope it aint soft ground imo!!
Tidal Bay beat Sir Des Champs in December over 3m at Leopardstown. I'm previewing a race in March, which has more prestige, will be on a different course, over a different distance, and possibly on different ground. Flemenstar has beat Sir Des Champs twice this year. Is he going to beat him again at Cheltenham using your line of argument?
Tidal Bay is 12yo and has been pumped in a Gold Cup before. The jockey wins the Lexus then immediately starts talking about the World Hurdle. Nuff said. Tidal Bay my @rse if I am being totally honest
Tidal Bay is 12yo and has been pumped in a Gold Cup before. The jockey wins the Lexus then immediately starts talking about the World Hurdle. Nuff said. Tidal Bay my @rse if I am being totally honest
Haylingbilly
Nice to finally see someone else on here who feels long run will be in the frame. 2-1 a place gives you a free win bet on a horse thats never out the frame. Banker material for me......
Nice to finally see someone else on here who feels long run will be in the frame. 2-1 a place gives you a free win bet on a horse thats never out the frame. Banker material for me......
I was just pointing out that your confident selection was beaten by your no hoper.
If its soft and Tidal Bay is allowed to run,i think its very possible TB could beat SDC again.
Of course if he dont run its irrelevant anyway.
It werent a line of argument Bally,just making a point re the form of horses this season.
If its soft and Tidal Bay is allowed to run,i think its very possible TB could beat SDC again.
Of course if he dont run its irrelevant anyway.
It werent a line of argument Bally,just making a point re the form of horses this season.
Anyway we aint supposed to mention him on here,sorry CV!!
Ballydoyle, yes Sir Des Champs is 2 from 2 at the Festival, but the Martin Pipe and Jewson aren't exactly the toughest of races; not like FL and Bob who went down the Neptune / Albert Bartlett and RSA route.
Tidal Bay has ran in a Gold Cup before, but never for Paul Nicholls who has transformed him. Not saying he'll win, but based on the form that he's got in the book so far, I wouldn't be writing him off, or any of the top four or five in the betting at the moment.
Connections of Flemenstar have always been convinced he's been a Gold Cup horse for the last couple of years. They work with him and see him every day, and plotted his career towards the Gold Cup. People are being far to premature in dismissing him until we see him again.
I'd personally wait on any big bets until after the Irish Hennessey. If Flem wins that well he blows this entire race apart, and everyone will have to reconsider their selections. If he fails to stay, then by all means, wade in on your choice.
Tidal Bay has ran in a Gold Cup before, but never for Paul Nicholls who has transformed him. Not saying he'll win, but based on the form that he's got in the book so far, I wouldn't be writing him off, or any of the top four or five in the betting at the moment.
Connections of Flemenstar have always been convinced he's been a Gold Cup horse for the last couple of years. They work with him and see him every day, and plotted his career towards the Gold Cup. People are being far to premature in dismissing him until we see him again.
I'd personally wait on any big bets until after the Irish Hennessey. If Flem wins that well he blows this entire race apart, and everyone will have to reconsider their selections. If he fails to stay, then by all means, wade in on your choice.
I don't think Tidal Bay will win either BUT when he ran his gold cup he was with Howard Johnson and he was tailing off in loads of races around that time. It's only his last 4 races for whatever reason he's decided not to tail off anymore.
I'm in full agreement Bally and think SDC will be a completely different animal at Cheltenham in March. So much is being made of its jumping errors but aside from one or two bad blunders in heavy ground, it's not been that bad?
Watch last years Jewson and tell me how badly it jumps in a race against some very useful and speedy horses in opposition. The word on the street last year was they fancied it in whichever race it ran at the festival and it looks like a horse with speed and stamina which should be perfect for the GC imo.
I love FL and am praying this goes for the Ryanair, in which case ill be having my biggest bet of the meeting!
Bring it on!
Watch last years Jewson and tell me how badly it jumps in a race against some very useful and speedy horses in opposition. The word on the street last year was they fancied it in whichever race it ran at the festival and it looks like a horse with speed and stamina which should be perfect for the GC imo.
I love FL and am praying this goes for the Ryanair, in which case ill be having my biggest bet of the meeting!
Bring it on!
Tells you all you need to know of what my general opinion of this forum is GCW!!!!
Comments like your latest one confirms it!
Comments like your latest one confirms it!
robbo see what i said about long run in the supreme thread to long to right it again
Gman I think you may have taken my comment the wrong way. I actually respect the opinion of posters (rightly or worngly) who have a low post count relative to the time they've been on here as it usualy means it's a very strong fancy the fact they've bothered to post at all. Also people who have been here years are often doing something right.
GCW - Apologies if I took your post in the wrong context, I just see too many idiots posting on here that I figured you were adopting the same small minded approach.
No worries. People do quite often mistake my typing online so it's probably a fault of my typing style :)
FWIW I do fancy Bobs Worth but whilst he is very solid I don't think he is bomb proof and SDC is the one who keeps niggling at me. I opposed him last year because I didn't believe his form stack up to the hype and got stung as he was the winner from a fair way out. Given how close he get in the lexus if the better ground does produce a jumping performance like last year he will be hard to beat.
FWIW I do fancy Bobs Worth but whilst he is very solid I don't think he is bomb proof and SDC is the one who keeps niggling at me. I opposed him last year because I didn't believe his form stack up to the hype and got stung as he was the winner from a fair way out. Given how close he get in the lexus if the better ground does produce a jumping performance like last year he will be hard to beat.
He will most probably run against Silviniaco Conti at Newbury now. I've made a nice trade on Grands Cru backed him at 50/1. I'd half expect him to win this now and be trading much shorter after.
good work brooksie, surely will go off short price fav now
Sorry my bad I've backed him at the weekend at 9s but I've got a trade in place for when he wins at the weekend for the GC. If he wins he'll be cut no doubt into 20s nice free bet :)
Cant see this supposed Gold Cup trial giving us much on Saturday now.
Certainly aint giving us the winner.
Certainly aint giving us the winner.
Obviously not a positive for Bob's Worth but think he's better off missing Saturday's race in heavy ground.
Well he won the Hennessey well enough when fresh first time out,so should run well in March i would think.
Yes,maybe a godsend not being able to run in heavy ground,certainly wont get bottomed anyway.
Yes,maybe a godsend not being able to run in heavy ground,certainly wont get bottomed anyway.
Last horse to win a GC without running for 4+ months anyone?
Cant help his chance.
Cant help his chance.
We have the same every time something happens. I remember how 4 year olds couldn't win Cheltenham Handicap Chases until Unioniste did handsprings up the hill in December, how French breds couldn't win Nationals but do it all the time now. Trainers can get horses fit, we all know. He'd not seen a racecourse for 6 months and more when he won the Hennessy and did it easily. I'd prefer him not to have a hard race now on bad ground and keep his feet up while his opponents will be slogging it out round Leopardstown in a couple of weeks. The Argento and Irish Hennessy are not the greatest trials anyway.
Well the trainer certainly agrees with you booster,and he should know whats best for the horse as re the Gold Cup.
Yeh,he will be spot on come March.
Selfishly,i hope he aint,hes not been backed by me.
Yeh,he will be spot on come March.
Selfishly,i hope he aint,hes not been backed by me.
If he turns up, Buddeliea, you know he'll be fit, you know he's got probably the best Cheltenham chase jockey around and you know his form is the best. Obviously no setbacks now are ideal but I bet Henderson's glad he's not running in this.
Think a GC will take a bit more winning than a Hennessy!!!
8 of last 11 Gold Cup winners did not run in same calendar year. More concern is that you have to go back to garrison Savannah in 1991 for a Gold Cup horse who won after only one run that season. He won the RSA so lightning could strike twice. 4 from 4 at Cheltenham and record of 8 from 11 overall with 3 from 3 when fresh
If only it was that simple hey, wonder how many of those 8 missed an intended prep run through a slight injury?
you need to back SDC after he gets beat by flem then :)
May get beat by Flemenstar for 3rd time running next month but 3m 2f at Cheltenham a different ball game.....Flemenstar would be going backwards up the hill as SDC strolled past
totally agree, just telling you to back SDC after he gets beat :)
Ah right I see sorry...I'm in at 7-1 for enough so now it's just a matter of him getting there.
Could Bobs worth still have a prep.Henderson is also the man who told us Binocular was finished
very good read and couldn't find anything wrong with your views on all the horses you mentioned,
will say I think bobs worth has the best chance of winning the race and has a exceptional profile.
don't think your far off with the tricast aswell.
will say I think bobs worth has the best chance of winning the race and has a exceptional profile.
don't think your far off with the tricast aswell.
Sir Des Champs needs to win the Irish Hennessy comfortably to justify his current odds.
I think we will see a different horse this weekend and I expect him to win well. It should also be the race that directs Flemenstar to the Ryanair where he will have his best chance.
I think we will see a different horse this weekend and I expect him to win well. It should also be the race that directs Flemenstar to the Ryanair where he will have his best chance.
I just think SDC needs to win the Hennessey, doesn't really matter in what manner. He would then fit the profile perfectly and would be favourite for me... torn between backing him now for the Gold Cup or waiting to see him win at the weekend and getting a lower price
As I said before my betting strategy for this race is to bet a horse/horses which fits this profile:
Ran in the King George or Lexus
Has won at 3 miles+
Has won a Graded Chase in the same season
Less than 11 years old
and did not place in the previous seasons Gold Cup and is not a previous Gold Cup winner
Will need to go through all the runners to make sure I haven't missed any but off the top of my head SDC will be the only one that fits all of that if he wins the Hennessey
As I said before my betting strategy for this race is to bet a horse/horses which fits this profile:
Ran in the King George or Lexus
Has won at 3 miles+
Has won a Graded Chase in the same season
Less than 11 years old
and did not place in the previous seasons Gold Cup and is not a previous Gold Cup winner
Will need to go through all the runners to make sure I haven't missed any but off the top of my head SDC will be the only one that fits all of that if he wins the Hennessey
champion court is a good horse,but i can see your point.I have backed BW but will be backing SDC before hennessey,he will be fav come gold cup day
His form stacks up with the fav,so would not be too bothered about horses hes beaten.Might be bothered should he repeat his jumping from his last race though.
interesting view the horse hasn't beat any good horses, but your not bothered and think it will win a gold cup?
I think he has a fair chance of winning,his forms up there with the others in the race imo.
He looks like he will stay ok based on his last run,where despite a few mistakes he nearly got up to win the race,and was finishing well.
He has to jump better though,like he did last year at Chelt would be fine.
He looks like he will stay ok based on his last run,where despite a few mistakes he nearly got up to win the race,and was finishing well.
He has to jump better though,like he did last year at Chelt would be fine.
judorick 28 Jan 13 11:21 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 11,371 | Blogger: judorick's blog
I just think SDC needs to win the Hennessey, doesn't really matter in what manner. He would then fit the profile perfectly and would be favourite for me... torn between backing him now for the Gold Cup or waiting to see him win at the weekend and getting a lower price
As I said before my betting strategy for this race is to bet a horse/horses which fits this profile:
Ran in the King George or Lexus
Has won at 3 miles+
Has won a Graded Chase in the same season
Less than 11 years old
and did not place in the previous seasons Gold Cup and is not a previous Gold Cup winner
Will need to go through all the runners to make sure I haven't missed any but off the top of my head SDC will be the only one that fits all of that if he wins the Hennessey
I can't remember if it was on this thread that I posted my early thoughts on the Gold Cup however the above post sums it up.
Please bare in mind this is a betting strategy and is not intended to be foolproof. The point is that I hope to gain an edge by applying similar strategies to all the races and therefore come out in front.
So to reiterate the criteria I have used:
1. The King George and Lexus have provided the Gold Cup winner in each of the last 13 years. Yes, this trend could be snapped this year with 2 of the first 3 in the betting failing on this trend. However, you could look at it that IF the trend stands up again then there must be value elsewhere in the market because so much of the book is taken by BW & SC.
This also takes out Katenko, Imperial Commander, Cape Tribulation
2. A key trend for Gold Cup winners is to have won a chase at at least 3 miles and any that fail this test will be eliminated. Captain Chris ran an admirable race in the KG and could be a slightly surprise winner but there are stamina doubts and he prefers going righthanded. Flight Lieutenant has not won at 3 miles and is dismissed (he also misses another strong trend) although he is an unlikely runner I would have thought.
3. Another very strong trend that Gold Cup winners share is to have won a chase, and ideally a graded chase, in the same season. Several runners have failed to win a race and are dismissed (FL, Hunt Ball, China Rock, The Giant Bolster, Champion Court)
After applying these three trends I am pretty much left with only Long Run, Tidal Bay and Sir Des Champs (winners of the KG, Lexus and Irish Hennessey). Tidal Bay cannot really be considered ante post as the trainer has not confirmed the target race (and he is 12 years old which is a major negative) so I am left with Long Run and SDC.
At the prices I could back both but as a trends man I have to say I would find it very hard to support Long Run. He is trying to become only the second horse to regain the Gold Cup (only Kauto has ever done that) and I can only find two examples of horses being placed in the Gold Cup going on to win the following year (Kauto 2008/9, The Fellow '93/'94). Having two strong trends to overcome is usually insurmountable.
Therefore, as he fits every trend, is a dual Festival winner, is sure to appreciate the spring ground and extra distance SIR DES CHAMPS is my ante post bet. 5/1 looks extremely generous.
I am of course aware of the threat from the Nicholls and Henderson camps and it would not surprise if any of Silviniaco Conti, Bobs Worth or Long Run were to win. I can only say I can pick holes in them on trends and hope that turns out to be of such significance that they fail. SC for instance has never ever had a chase at Cheltenham let alone have any Festival form (and missed the key races) but he looks a quality chaser, BW has had just one start and that will be 104 days before the Gold Cup and LR has key trends to snap if he wants to win.
There you go. Sir Des Champs 5/1 more than good enough for me
I just think SDC needs to win the Hennessey, doesn't really matter in what manner. He would then fit the profile perfectly and would be favourite for me... torn between backing him now for the Gold Cup or waiting to see him win at the weekend and getting a lower price
As I said before my betting strategy for this race is to bet a horse/horses which fits this profile:
Ran in the King George or Lexus
Has won at 3 miles+
Has won a Graded Chase in the same season
Less than 11 years old
and did not place in the previous seasons Gold Cup and is not a previous Gold Cup winner
Will need to go through all the runners to make sure I haven't missed any but off the top of my head SDC will be the only one that fits all of that if he wins the Hennessey
I can't remember if it was on this thread that I posted my early thoughts on the Gold Cup however the above post sums it up.
Please bare in mind this is a betting strategy and is not intended to be foolproof. The point is that I hope to gain an edge by applying similar strategies to all the races and therefore come out in front.
So to reiterate the criteria I have used:
1. The King George and Lexus have provided the Gold Cup winner in each of the last 13 years. Yes, this trend could be snapped this year with 2 of the first 3 in the betting failing on this trend. However, you could look at it that IF the trend stands up again then there must be value elsewhere in the market because so much of the book is taken by BW & SC.
This also takes out Katenko, Imperial Commander, Cape Tribulation
2. A key trend for Gold Cup winners is to have won a chase at at least 3 miles and any that fail this test will be eliminated. Captain Chris ran an admirable race in the KG and could be a slightly surprise winner but there are stamina doubts and he prefers going righthanded. Flight Lieutenant has not won at 3 miles and is dismissed (he also misses another strong trend) although he is an unlikely runner I would have thought.
3. Another very strong trend that Gold Cup winners share is to have won a chase, and ideally a graded chase, in the same season. Several runners have failed to win a race and are dismissed (FL, Hunt Ball, China Rock, The Giant Bolster, Champion Court)
After applying these three trends I am pretty much left with only Long Run, Tidal Bay and Sir Des Champs (winners of the KG, Lexus and Irish Hennessey). Tidal Bay cannot really be considered ante post as the trainer has not confirmed the target race (and he is 12 years old which is a major negative) so I am left with Long Run and SDC.
At the prices I could back both but as a trends man I have to say I would find it very hard to support Long Run. He is trying to become only the second horse to regain the Gold Cup (only Kauto has ever done that) and I can only find two examples of horses being placed in the Gold Cup going on to win the following year (Kauto 2008/9, The Fellow '93/'94). Having two strong trends to overcome is usually insurmountable.
Therefore, as he fits every trend, is a dual Festival winner, is sure to appreciate the spring ground and extra distance SIR DES CHAMPS is my ante post bet. 5/1 looks extremely generous.
I am of course aware of the threat from the Nicholls and Henderson camps and it would not surprise if any of Silviniaco Conti, Bobs Worth or Long Run were to win. I can only say I can pick holes in them on trends and hope that turns out to be of such significance that they fail. SC for instance has never ever had a chase at Cheltenham let alone have any Festival form (and missed the key races) but he looks a quality chaser, BW has had just one start and that will be 104 days before the Gold Cup and LR has key trends to snap if he wants to win.
There you go. Sir Des Champs 5/1 more than good enough for me
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