Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
RSA Antepost
Dynaste - Has looked impressive in his 3 chase wins this season, with his most impressive performance coming in the Feltham at Christmas. But it isn't very hard to pick holes in that form. Not just most, ALL the horses he beat are not even close to being good enough to even place in an RSA. As nice a horse as Dynaste looks his price of 5/2 is very short indeed.
He has 3 big stats to overcome.
1) 9 of last 10 RSA winners were Irish Bred Chasers.
2) No winner of Feltham has won the RSA
3) All 10 of past winners have had only 1 season hurdling.
Add to that the general poor record of World Hurdle runners and the fact that the last 3 RSA winners ran in the Albert Bartlett and that 5/5 past winners came in first 2 of either Reynoldstown at Ascot or Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown on their penultimate start. So you can see there are plenty of things against Dynaste. So 5/2 is by far the worst antepost price of the festival.
Boston Bob - Nice big chaser type, fits all trends for RSA winner, ran in Albert Bartlett, Irish Bred, only 1 season hurdling. He won his only point to point well and jumped impressively on his chasing debut in December. He should line up in the Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown next which means he'd fit every trend for this.
His hurdles runs showed he is a strong stayer, he was fastest home from 2nd last to the line in Albert Bartlett and had 3 other good hurdles wins under his belt too. He should improve considerably for going chasing and if he wins the Dr PJ he is the one they'll have to beat.
Rocky Creek - Another trends fitter, being Irish bred and having run in Albert Bartlett, I'd hope to see him go for the Reynoldstown at Ascot next as the hill finish would suite this strong stayer. There's a nagging feeling he may be being trained to peak for the Hennessy next season and will not be fully mature enough to win an RSA. But none the less he's a smashing good horse and will not be stopping up that hill.
Back in Focus - Very good strong stayer too when conditions are right and those are soft ground. Owner/Trainer have Boston Bob too and may well skip the festival with this horse and save him for some good soft ground races next season. He looks the perfect Welsh National type to me. But wouldn't be surprised to see him turn up in the Hennessy if the ground came soft again. But as for the RSA he's an unlikely runner in my view.
Aupcharlie - Very solid 3 miler, was just nabbed on the line in the 3m Grade 1 at Christmas by Stablemate Back in Focus. But conditions favoured the latter that day. Back on good ground he would have reversed that form in my opinion. That day Mullins had suggested the Jewson for Aupcharlie, but personally I'd find it the wrong race for him as he nearly won a 3mile G1 on soft. He's also entered in a 3m Grade 2 at Naas on Saturday. So my inkling is he may join Boston Bob in RSA. You Must Know Me is also owned by the Potts and he could well be aimed at the Jewson.
Super Duty - Was running a fine race behind Simonsig at Aintree when he blundered the last, it would have been interesting to see how close he would have got that day, yet still got 2nd. His best runs last term came on good ground and his 3 chase runs this season have been on soft. First time out was over a too short 2m, nto he hit the last and it cost his chance. Finally he won his 3rd start at Cheltenham where he was staying on well. He's a very solid horse, he's Irish bred and he's had 1 season hurdling. He looks a nice type, but may find one too classy come the RSA.
Mount Benbulben - Here's another perfect trends fit, having run in Albert Bartlett last season. He's had the kind of Mouse Morris prep like FL last season, lots of chases early in the season. First run was over too short a trip, then nto he unfortunately fell when going well. He won his next start on soft over 2m5f, then unfortunately an early mistake and rider lost his irons in 3m Grade 1 at Christmas he was pulled up.
Elliott smartly sent him back out a week later over a short trip of 2m1f to get some jumping practice in. His jumping was much improved and he went close to winning. Elliott thinks a lot of this horse, he will likely have his next start in the Grade 1 Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown Hennessy meeting and should he run well I'd imagine he'll head for the RSA. Elliott has said last season how the horse would prefer good ground so he looks a possible value pick at this stage.
Other possibly interesting horses who would be worth keeping an eye on would be Sire Collonges & Dedigout. they could both feature if they run improved races nto.
Suggested bets
At this stage it would be best to wait on Boston Bob until he's declared for Dr PJ Moriarty at Hennessy meeting on 9th Feb before betting but 7/1 remains a good price.
Mount Benbulben e/w @ 33/1
Aupcharlie e/w @ 16/1
Both with VC non runner free bet. Both seem over priced for RSA, should they impress on their next starts they will likely take their chance here. If they do not then they may be sent to Jewson route in which case you get free bet.
Dynaste - Has looked impressive in his 3 chase wins this season, with his most impressive performance coming in the Feltham at Christmas. But it isn't very hard to pick holes in that form. Not just most, ALL the horses he beat are not even close to being good enough to even place in an RSA. As nice a horse as Dynaste looks his price of 5/2 is very short indeed.
He has 3 big stats to overcome.
1) 9 of last 10 RSA winners were Irish Bred Chasers.
2) No winner of Feltham has won the RSA
3) All 10 of past winners have had only 1 season hurdling.
Add to that the general poor record of World Hurdle runners and the fact that the last 3 RSA winners ran in the Albert Bartlett and that 5/5 past winners came in first 2 of either Reynoldstown at Ascot or Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown on their penultimate start. So you can see there are plenty of things against Dynaste. So 5/2 is by far the worst antepost price of the festival.
Boston Bob - Nice big chaser type, fits all trends for RSA winner, ran in Albert Bartlett, Irish Bred, only 1 season hurdling. He won his only point to point well and jumped impressively on his chasing debut in December. He should line up in the Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown next which means he'd fit every trend for this.
His hurdles runs showed he is a strong stayer, he was fastest home from 2nd last to the line in Albert Bartlett and had 3 other good hurdles wins under his belt too. He should improve considerably for going chasing and if he wins the Dr PJ he is the one they'll have to beat.
Rocky Creek - Another trends fitter, being Irish bred and having run in Albert Bartlett, I'd hope to see him go for the Reynoldstown at Ascot next as the hill finish would suite this strong stayer. There's a nagging feeling he may be being trained to peak for the Hennessy next season and will not be fully mature enough to win an RSA. But none the less he's a smashing good horse and will not be stopping up that hill.
Back in Focus - Very good strong stayer too when conditions are right and those are soft ground. Owner/Trainer have Boston Bob too and may well skip the festival with this horse and save him for some good soft ground races next season. He looks the perfect Welsh National type to me. But wouldn't be surprised to see him turn up in the Hennessy if the ground came soft again. But as for the RSA he's an unlikely runner in my view.
Aupcharlie - Very solid 3 miler, was just nabbed on the line in the 3m Grade 1 at Christmas by Stablemate Back in Focus. But conditions favoured the latter that day. Back on good ground he would have reversed that form in my opinion. That day Mullins had suggested the Jewson for Aupcharlie, but personally I'd find it the wrong race for him as he nearly won a 3mile G1 on soft. He's also entered in a 3m Grade 2 at Naas on Saturday. So my inkling is he may join Boston Bob in RSA. You Must Know Me is also owned by the Potts and he could well be aimed at the Jewson.
Super Duty - Was running a fine race behind Simonsig at Aintree when he blundered the last, it would have been interesting to see how close he would have got that day, yet still got 2nd. His best runs last term came on good ground and his 3 chase runs this season have been on soft. First time out was over a too short 2m, nto he hit the last and it cost his chance. Finally he won his 3rd start at Cheltenham where he was staying on well. He's a very solid horse, he's Irish bred and he's had 1 season hurdling. He looks a nice type, but may find one too classy come the RSA.
Mount Benbulben - Here's another perfect trends fit, having run in Albert Bartlett last season. He's had the kind of Mouse Morris prep like FL last season, lots of chases early in the season. First run was over too short a trip, then nto he unfortunately fell when going well. He won his next start on soft over 2m5f, then unfortunately an early mistake and rider lost his irons in 3m Grade 1 at Christmas he was pulled up.
Elliott smartly sent him back out a week later over a short trip of 2m1f to get some jumping practice in. His jumping was much improved and he went close to winning. Elliott thinks a lot of this horse, he will likely have his next start in the Grade 1 Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown Hennessy meeting and should he run well I'd imagine he'll head for the RSA. Elliott has said last season how the horse would prefer good ground so he looks a possible value pick at this stage.
Other possibly interesting horses who would be worth keeping an eye on would be Sire Collonges & Dedigout. they could both feature if they run improved races nto.
Suggested bets
At this stage it would be best to wait on Boston Bob until he's declared for Dr PJ Moriarty at Hennessy meeting on 9th Feb before betting but 7/1 remains a good price.
Mount Benbulben e/w @ 33/1
Aupcharlie e/w @ 16/1
Both with VC non runner free bet. Both seem over priced for RSA, should they impress on their next starts they will likely take their chance here. If they do not then they may be sent to Jewson route in which case you get free bet.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 46
|
By:
Use this thread
|
|
By:
Great write up again CVB. Good to see you've changed your mind a little bit on Aupcharlie.
Also saw he was entered over 3 miles on Saturday and would like to think he will go RSA if declared....and runs to form of course. One you haven't mentioned that I think could run into a place is Hadrian's Approach. Obviously has the tendency to clout one but given his sire I would have thought may be better on decent ground. He is a definite staying type and if the jumping can be improved, the style of race may seem him going past tired horses at the end. |
|
By:
You dismiss Super Duty because he may find one too good, then you proceed to put up two selections. I'm guessing you were bred in Ireland aswell.
 |
|
By:
Boston Bob has not ran over fences at least 3 times like 10 of the past 10 winners
|
|
By:
Graeme83...bit harsh. It's a good write up. Perhaps you could tell us who you think will win and why?
|
|
By:
Graeme is the cliché betfair clueless forum poster. By now you know he has no opinion of worth. So you always have to sift through posts like that and focus on people who have useful opinions.
As for Boston Bob Bally, Mullins won RSA with Florida Pearl on back of just 2 runs. Bob is such a good jumper it wouldn't be as big a concern as it would normally be. None the less it's still a factor to note. I would have liked 3 runs myself. Roo, and Hadrians is one to look at on his next start too I agree. Irony here is I've backed Super Duty. Was my first bet in this race this season. |
|
By:
You're a fool, Byrne. You harp on about Boston Bob, like you do about most Irish horses as if you own them, then you make a thread putting up two alternative Irish horses, other than the one you've been ranting about for what seems like an eternity. You then dismiss a horse because he might find one too good, then proceed to back two horses. As if there wasn't enough to make a comedy sketch out of father Byrne the Craggy island know it all, he then says he has backed the horse he just dismissed. In short he is a serial dart thrower who backs too many to mention, but tries to project himself as someone with an authorative, true opinion, when he is backing half the field, and not dismissing the other half.
|
|
By:
Just Boston Bob for me at this stage, took 8/1 before his chase debut. He was 10/1 after it. Shrewd.
|
|
By:
Amazingly insightful analysis there Graeme. You just post rubbish on these forums and I'm quite sure nobody gives your "opinions" any credibility at all. As I said, you're one of those who you have to put up with, I post here because there are some good opinions on here I wish to converse with. You I just laugh at.
Anyway, I'll further explain my position and why I've picked those two. Aupcharlie won impressively by 11l on his debut, then nodded on landing after the last and was just caught close to home by Back in Focus in a 3m Grade 1 at Leopardstown, a race which is among the 3 best trials for the RSA. With FL 2nd in it last year along with RSA winners Weapons Amnesty and Bostons Angel both running in it on their winning season. He's entered for a 3m G2 at Naas on Saturday and if he wins that well he will have very solid form in the book going to Cheltenham and would be no 16/1 shot. Remember he was a good 3rd in the Champion Bumper on his only visit to the track. Below is a quote from Mullins back when Aupcharlie won over hurdles just over a year ago, it's key that he said improve for better ground and spring horse. So we may well see him improve when he gets better ground at Cheltenham. "He's probably the same as the first winner Darroun, in that the better ground was a help. He had disappointed up to now and he looks like a spring horse. He was the same last year. He idled in front and I wouldn't be afraid to go out in trip with him on better ground. He'll get entries in the novice hurdles at Cheltenham and I'm not sure if he'll run before then" Mount Benbulben has had a patchy time over fences so far, but it looks ever so similar to First Lieutenant last season, with ups and downs but all valuable experience. His jumping needs to improve but I thought it did when he was run over a much too short 2m1f lto. If he has a good performance in the Dr PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown he'll go for the RSA, if he isn't up to it he'll not and so you get a free bet. Cooldine did a similar 2m1f, 2m5f, 3m step up each time in his RSA winning year. Elliott had said last season how the horse would be better on better ground when he was beaten by Boston Bob. Here are some quotes from Gordon Elliott from the past 18 months, all after he has run in a 2m4f or 2m5f hurdle or chase. 'He's a proper stayer and the further he goes the better he will be.' 'He's a nice horse and he's very tough. He's got a fair engine and going further will be no problem. We'll look for something over Christmas for him and we'll see how he comes out of this race. We wouldn't go any shorter. He stays very well.' 'Mount Benbulben has got a right engine if we can get his jumping right. He is a bit sketchy and it was a good performance considering he was nearly on the ground (at the second fence). We'll look for something over Christmas and he's entered in the three miles Grade 1 Fort Leney Chase at Leopardstown and he'd have no trouble staying that trip.' The difference between backing these two and Super Duty is Super Duty will go for the RSA and I think we know what we're getting with him. While these two are ones who we have yet to see the best of in my opinion and could shorten considerably based on their next starts. |
|
By:
Ive backed MB for the Jewson before his last run so hope he goes there.Was quiet impressed with the run last time and think the winners pretty useful and will probably back him for the Jewson as well,although not sure on plans for both to be honest.
NOt so sure about MB for the RSA,thought it might be a bit far,although i see his trainer thinks thats fine. Looks like i will have to wait on that. Aupcharlie is a horse i like,and he was easily the best horse lto during the race,and i see him as another Jewson type,and were it soft maybe even the Arkle!! Think i will back him on the day where ever he turns up. The Jewson has certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons as re the RSA!!! |
|
By:
Yeah sint I backed Bob after Chelts last season at 10/1 then again after chase debut at 10/1 I'm still keen on him. But not worth backing now at 7/1 given he may drift again as others run between now and Leopardstown on 9th Feb.
I would have liked 3 runs myself to be honest. |
|
By:
Nice write up CV.
I'm a big Aupcharlie fan. I think he was very unfortunate to get collared by Back In Focus and I'd expect him to reverse that form if they ever meet again. I'd fancy him for the Jewson and the RSA but hope he goes tot he Jewson as I've my money riding on Boston Bob in this! He's running over 3 miles tomorrow at Naas in what looks a very winnable race. He traveled like the best horse in the race at Christmas and a drop back in trip wouldn't hinder him either imo, seems very versatile trip-wise. He's got decent course form (3rd in the bumper) and as you say he should go on any ground. Hope he wins well tomorrow. |
|
By:
Well done Byrne. You say i talk rubbish, but can't back it up as i've had a good response from posters anyway. I may not be the most knowledgable punter around, but at least i don't dress things up to portray myself as something i'm not. You seriously criticised me despite the facts, and now you have the gall to prove you are reliable source of opinion by highlighting trainers comments ? Many on here, myself included, don't mind backing more than one horse in a race, but none of the others take the highground and refer to others as less knowledgable. I have stated facts with regards to your hypocrisy. Now excuse me as i clean my sword of no mercy. Someone pick this man from off the ground and make sure he is okay.
|
|
By:
One that I like that's not even quoted is Lyreen Legend. He won really well in Galway first time out when he wasn't near fully fit, before disappointing behind Back In Focus next time. I'm willing to forgive him that run as he jumped poorly and Dessie Hughes' yard were under a bit of a cloud if I remember correctly. At Christmas he was cruising when getting an absolutely pearler of a fall at the 3rd last. If he's none the worse as a result of that, I expect him to surprise a few.
|
|
By:
Out of all the Mullins novices i do think Aupcharlie has a tad more class over the others,although of course he has Arvika,but certainly of the staying types anyway.
Hes a horse they may just look after a bit? and skip what could well be a gruelling RSA??. Jewson and Gold Cup maybe?? |
|
By:
I was a big Mount B fan last year and was waiting to see him over fences, hope he is aimed at the RSA and not the Jewson
|
|
By:
My pocket says the RSA is the race for him. However trying to be objective I agree that possibly that Jewson would be better for him in the long term.
That being said the Jewson could end up being a much stronger race so could be just as tough as the RSA on a young horse. |
|
By:
Elliott seems to think Mount Benbulben has a serious engine and needs a trip. I think his jumping would be under too much pressure in a Jewson tbh.
As for Lyreen Legend. That's a horse who needs soft and wouldn't be travelling to Cheltenham in my opinion. Nice discussion lads. Will be putting up my Gold Cup views this evening. |
|
By:
Thought MB jumped a lot better lto,and that was over 2m.
Maybe the horse prefers jumping at a faster pace?. Could be one thats gonna have to wait till the goings known. |
|
By:
There's a key thing to note Bud about Irish Novice Chasers. Because they have to run on soft ground most run over a shorter trip than they would at the festival. This is to get experience in jumping at the speed they would have to at the festival over 3m.
Also 3m slogs in heavy ground is not what trainers want for novices. As such there is but 1 3m Grade 1 novice chase and that's at Leopardstown at Christmas where odd as it may be is usually run on decent enough ground. All other races are usually 2 and a half miles. They're most popular with trainers for Stayers. I can't see mount Benbulben going Jewson, he doesn't have the speed. He was sent to Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham and sent for the only 3m Grade 1 we have at Christmas. Combined with all Elliotts comments he's an RSA horse. |
|
By:
Jeezo Graeme....have a lie down. CV Byrne, your views are always worth reading and it seems you are going down same path in terms of bets as me in a few races. I base a lot of my Cheltenham bets on stats and it seems you do the same. For the baove race I have :
Boston Bob ew 8-1 Rocky Creek ew 25-1 Super Duty ew 25-1 Houblon Des Obeaux ew 66-1 Briefly, Boston Bob I always thought would be a better chaser. Got my fingers burnt last year but such is life. I am a fan of Mullins in this, having backed Cooldine n Florida Pearl. Race has been lucky to me as well cos always favour a stayer than a flashy french bred. Couple of things are that he is 8 and prefer 7yo for this and secondly only one run this year. I want to see it out again twice as the Fly got turned over last year due to only one prep run imo. Rocky Creek was pointed out to me by a mate but he's only won on a flat track and was pumped 27l in Albert Bartlett. Is he better than Boston Bob? Super Duty I backed after he won at Cheltenham. Highly regarded by McCain and I believe he fits all the stats? I think he will be bang there. Houblon Des Obeaux just too big to resist at 66/1. Yes yes yes a french bred and I've been sucked in but I think he's a grinder and his form isn't too bad,certainly not for a 16/1 place Looking forward to reading your Gold Cup write up. I am a firm Sir Des Champs fan with a bit on Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti. I can't see anything other than one of these 3 winning although confidence not high in latter due to lack of course experience. |
|
By:
Yeh,i understand that mate,all makes sense.
Dont think its cut and dried though myself,and really think the going will determine his race. |
|
By:
33/1 is a good price for Mt Benbulben but his jumping on his first 2 chase runs was terrible. If he makes a bad mistake at Cheltenham he won't win. I have no strong fancy for the race but I don't see why Dynaste should get beaten on the form he has shown so far. If he turns up on the day and the stable are still in form I will probably back him.
|
|
By:
Good post Bally, good points that I can't argue with. Super Duty does fit all the stats. Would like him to run in Reynoldstown on his next start though.
I wouldn't worry about finishing positions in the AB. Just running in it is good enough as Bostons Angel was pulled up in it and Won RSA. You just need that Irish Bred dour stayer. |
|
By:
At the prices (12-1, VC, NRFB) I've sided with Rocky Creek as the most solid option. Jumps well, will definitely go for this race if fit and is out and out stayer. Of the others, Dynaste could walk this but trends say otherwise. Boston Bob's first win hasn't worked out that well and at 1/2 the price of Rocky Creek, makes little appeal at this stage. Wasn't especially impressed with Super Duty's jumping at Cheltenham, albeit in ground he wouldn't like, and on a line through Forgotton Gold, Rocky Creek looks better. Mount Benbulben seemed to be very inconsistent, and again not massively impressed with his jumping. Of the rest not sure what will turn up. RSA's tend to be one of 2....either a great race, won by a contender for the following years GD (Denman, Weapons Amnesty, Bobs Worth) or not so good, won by something more in the mould of an out in out stayer who doesn't go onto win much (Boston's Angel, Cooldine, Star de Mohaison, Rule Supreme). Time will tell how this race shapes up, but too often the race is won by the latter group, rather than an emerging superstar.
|
|
By:
Pretty much agree with all of that Corporal,and at the prices Rocky Creek is the value imo ,especially as you say twice the price of BB.
Yes,Dynaste could well prove to be different class,but hes not a definite runner at this stage and he does have trends/stats to overcome,although personally that sort of thing dont bother me too much. 12 with the VC offer sounds the way to go. |
|
By:
Nicholls was on morning line this morning - not sure to send Rocky Creek to RSA as felt he didn't handle the whole thing very well last year in AB
|
|
By:
Bang goes my point that he goes for the race then
 . Oh well NRFB if they do miss it. |
|
By:
He may still go. Exact words were ''I'm not in a great hurry to commit him to the RSA'' and then explained why
|
|
By:
From reading this thread and the long discussions on the Boston Bob thread, I don't think I've read one person who's backed Dynaste. I'm amazed he's favourite because I think almost every other horse in the betting has had some kind of positive, but I think people may be missing the obvious.
I understand that the RSA is a very strong trends race, and that can point you in the right direction, but they're not for me. I pick my selection based on what I see, and if they fit the trends; great, if not then it doesn't deter me. Anyways, I haven't backed Dyanste myself, but as Budd says, I think he could be different gravy, and he is easily the the most likely winner imo. He's never looked like stopping at the end of the race, and I think the Pipes will learn from last year that a prep run between the Feltham and the RSA is needed. I don't bet large stakes, £20 max usually, so he makes no appeal at 5/2. I do have confidence in Bob placing though, and put £18 on him to place at 9/4, so that's almost a max bet for me. One at a bigger price is Our Father. He handled the soft going in November and put in an awsome performance, but was put well in his place in the really heavy stuff by Highland Lodge, which form was not franked. I went to a preview night before last year's Festival and the vibes around this fella from the Pipe yard were very positive, but it was a no show from him. However, at 33/1 I think he has a bit of class about him, and Timmy Murphy will probably be on board, with Scu on Dynaste. Good luck all. |
|
By:
aupcharlie to run in a sec.
|
|
By:
Strange that Nicholls is talking up Rocky Creek as a future Gold Cup contender but is seemingly reluctant to try and win what - Dynaste apart - looks a pretty ordinary RSA. On the other hand he is quite happy to target the Arkle with Fago who would look to have plenty on even to be placed.
|
|
By:
Thats 2 races on the trot Aupcharlie has appeared to me to be a non stayer at 3m.
Reckon they should step him back in distance for the festival.He aint winning an RSA imo. |
|
By:
Unfortunately I have to agree. Would also be concerned that perhaps will never find too much at the end of his races.
My only crumb will be that he'll be better on decent ground but not holding out much hope. |
|
By:
buddeliea
19 Jan 13 15:28 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 7,829 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog Thats 2 races on the trot Aupcharlie has appeared to me to be a non stayer at 3m. Reckon they should step him back in distance for the festival.He aint winning an RSA imo. interesting budd thought he chucked it in myself...comes with a health warning this fellow i'm afraid |
|
By:
I thought he dogged it too,the cruising to hard under pressure bit came too close together, if you know what I mean .
|
|
By:
Well thats possible lads,guess we will find out if he drops him in trip.
Soft ground Arkle he would be interesting  |
|
By:
The big problem with any form in the last 2 months is the going. Some heavy ground winners or losers can reproduce the form on good/soft but most don't. Dynaste has looked good on any ground.
|
|
By:
Just watched a few of his hurdle races over 20f,seemed to find plenty in those races.
I really think its just a case of 3m being too far for him at the top level. |