Cheltenham Festival
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Champion Hurdle Antepost
Champion Hurdle Antepost
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Isn't the 'ideal' first day going gd/soft anyway?
Every chance with any average rainful that this year it will be at least that. The only difference from a normal year is it will be for want of a better word natural rather than man made (with watering). |
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Bally.
Trainer has said its very soft OW may well run in CH. As For Binocular,no one is saying he WILL win the CH,but he will run a lot better than he did the other day for sure,and is an e/w proposition at the prices imo. Also no one is saying it WILL be soft. Learn to read properly!! Wind up merchant. |
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ive never backed hf before but i think if it turns up in the form it did yesterday it will win on any ground !
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even if it is soft budd, OW will not beat the fly in the CH
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well you dont know that alleged,they have never raced against each other in those conditions.
i suspect you may be right,but if OW does turn up in soft ground he will be a threat to all. |
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Buddeliea...give us your address and I'll send you a formbook son
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Can somebody please tell me what im missing!!!
Why has Binocular got any chance in the CH? Beat 3 times by the fly, cant beat just for starters. If he was double his current price he would be no value, hes not even first choice from his own yard. So the on the day gamble idea is a very very bad reason to bet him this time round, it wont happen!!! He will be 5th or 6th like last year at very best!!!! |
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Exactly
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could binoc be a pace maker for Darlan? - not blasting off at the start but taking it up a mile out for instance....
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thats one thing that i cant work out this year the pace angle, unless a rag goes blastin off im not sure which one of the big guns will be comfortable making it ?
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Why didnt Henderson send over Darlan or Grandouet against the Fly yesterday? Always moaning about where to place his nags that man yet bottles it yesterday. No point in sending Binocular imo...he's a spent force
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@Ballydoyle, fair question. Maybe he thinks Darlan has had enough of running on very soft ground. But still a valid question, again it was a £58k first prize, it's a huge amount except for the international, fighting fifth and the big handicaps. Worth winning in anyone's books considering the 3rd place in the champion is only worth £39k. Yesterday's 2nd place is worth £19k against 4th in the champion of £19k so again even finishing 2nd is valuable enough. I honestly think if they thought Darlan could win they would send him over, but just an opinion at the end of the day. Too many horses now are entirely festival focused. It's a shame really
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Haa Bally,very funny.
I know Binoculars form as well as anyone my friend. I know hes not at his best in his 1st race,which some jokers on here are judging him by. I also know(as much as one can) had he jumped the last he would have been at least 3rd,maybe 2nd, in last years race. Hes a viable e/w bet at the prices on all known form,in particular at Cheltenham. |
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Pearl Swan in my honest opinion if running will probably make the pace and go off like a scolded cat for ZARKANDAR! I asked my mate this same question not long ago and he felt this fellow might be the one that does it.
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He never sent Binocular for that race when he was at his best so wouldn't read anything in not sending Darlan. I wouldn't be surprised if he was just scouting how well Hurricane Fly is running compared to his own horses.
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HF did look impressive Sunday but still gone and backed Rock on Ruby today,as though some say he "fluked "his champion hurdle win he still ran it in 3min 50s with Hurricane Fly back in third .....Hurricane Fly won it in 3min 53sec so HF ran very similar times both years ,question is can he go any faster up that hill now he is getting older ,im just hoping we get good ground and imo think 8 to 1 EW about R O R is a safer bet than 7-2 about HF to win.
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was no fluke,won it fair and square very impressively.
if he repeats that performance he wins again imo.IF!! Think 8/1 is a fair bet Meade. |
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I still believe also that he didn't fluke it last year. Overturn for me was ridden to try and win the race last year with RoR just in behind with everyone else in behind expecting them up front to come back to them but the fact maguire got his fractions almost spot on put paid to that! And like ive already reiterated, hard to see the race being run again similarly so as regards do i think RoR can repeat and win again, yes, do i think his task will be that much harder this time, definitely yes!
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Sure it will be fantastic race to watch whatever the outcome....though more looking forward to actually being on course for champion hurdle day the first time this year....good luck whatever youre all backing anyway....im like a kid waiting for xmas ,lol
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GCW id tend to agree with your comment regarding binocular if it were nov or dec, when he normally disappoints. but we are 6 weeks away from the festival.
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Yeah for me every horse in the race ran to merit last year! It was just set up for the finish we had. Gonna be some spectacle once again, i just hope this time around whoever is up front taking them along does so this time round at a suicidal gallop to aid ZARKANDAR as he sits in behind the pace and uses his stamina at the end to run past all them out of puff up the hill
 as never is there a truer test of a horses speed and stamina than when that happens in champion hurdles at the cheltenham festival which of course we all agree is the blue riband of hurdling, the pinnacle, the top, the olympics of world national hunt horse racing! (ok Uk and Irish but it should be the world) |
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i like your optimism STS, but what i tell myself is would ruby get off the fly to ride zarkander and the answer is no. i want to find the winner not running on for a place so i have put a line through zarkander, good horse that he is but he is not a CH hurdle winner in my book
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Neither is the fly, not for me this year, he finishes placed, but doesnt win. I do honestly believe he will just fail again, finishing 2nd or 3rd.
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imo i think the fly looks better this year than the year he won it
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Well, i would not mind him winning, obviously as have a 11/2 voucher and £20 each way on in my book. Though he isn't my biggest winner, thats been reserved for zarkandar.
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i rarely back each way in championship races, all my fly bets are on the nose. might have a saver on rock on ruby should the right price appear
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Alleged I meant he never sent Binocular for that race when he was good 2-3 years ago so it probably isn't a race he aims his best horses at so not worried he didn't send Darlan.
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Only twice in the last twenty years has the ground at the start of the Cheltenham Festival been classified as soft. On one of those occasions the going description was changed to good to soft after the third race on the first day (2007) so conditions were obviously not too dissimilar than the ‘good’ or ‘good to soft’ conditions we have come to expect.
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In 2007 the weather had been very bad right up to about a week before Cheltenham and there were worries that it would not be on. There was flooding in some fields along the approach roads to Cheltenham even on the tuesday morning. However as you say the going was good to soft. The sun shone on a number of days that week also. The position of the course together with the drainage ensures that the going will never be heavy for very long. Of course should it rain for seven days and seven nights just before the meeting the story might be different. Surely the present wet weather cant continue for ever? Or can it!!!
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RIP Darlan :-(
You didn't deserve an end like that. Being one of The Fly's biggest fans I'm so so gutted the two of you didn't get to lock horns. Love this sport so much but it aint half hard at times.... |
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It was very sad
 he was absolutely cantering and would have set-up one of the most intriguing CH's in years. JP must be heartbroken. |
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re seathestar no1.
if pearl swan wins this weekend then i doubt very much he will lead out for zarkandar and based on his run last year i think you will find him sitting off the back like his run at cheltenham prior to his fall at the last. looking at that run, if he stays on his feet then he is in the first 3 at worst. think nicholls was quoted as saying 2 miles was on the short side for him, given all this weather, he is probably one of the fewer horses guaranteed to enjoy coming up the hill. flat run was a good blow out, a win this weekend and i would think he enters the equation on a level with zarkandar. |
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Good write up.
Your way out with your estimation of the Fly's price on the day. If its 4/1 the horse won't be winning anyway. I suggest it will be a very strong fav at around 7/4 and do a 'Comedy Of Errors'. Go on THE FLY! |
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Let's hope he's even shorter so we can do the lay double after last year's failure at 4-6. Seriously he's so under priced it's incredible and all the same noises are being made that were this time last year. Hope there are no more accidents or withdrawals then we can finally see whether he's anything more than a decent Champion Hurdler.
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I can see what the game is with the Hurricane Fly team. Perhaps the confidence is something to do with the possibility on soft ground ?
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Booster
I bet The Fly in 2011 at a tasty 4/1. His price last year was far too short and I left it alone. There's nothing out there this year to best him. The price is all important and with his record I would not be betting him until the day. At around 2/1, I'll be on. At around evens I will proably swerve. |
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Well done in 2011, 4-1 was a good price. All I'm saying is he's got about the same chance as 3 horses all 3 times his price in the betting so is a lay now but will continue to shorten as the hype grows. They said last year there was nothing to beat him but he's a horse who constantly beats the same horses on heavy ground but has done it only once at the festival. On heavy ground he'd be difficult to lay, not least because the English horses prefer better ground but they were talking about having to water at Doncaster for Thursday's meeting and he's not at his best on that type of ground.
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Im on the fly at 5s and 4s :) here's hoping he stays well until the big day and travels over well.
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And that is just about the price he should be.
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I got 11-2 in 2011 at around January time. He was a better horse then than he is now.
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