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Arkle
Simonsig - He looks a superb horse, but you can't be backing a horse for an Arkle at evens or less antepost. Especially one who's future will be over further. He should win this race but he's no antepost prospect at the prices.
Overturn - Admirable horse, but he's spent too long over Hurdles for me, he's clear 2nd fav at the moment but given I doubt he can beat Simonsig & he's no e/w price he's a no bet.
Arvika Legionare - Another who will be better over further in my opinion, he was jumping to his right at Leopardstown at Christmas and he can't get away with that in an Arkle. He's another who's short enough and a no bet.
Oscars Well - Wouldn't be too bad a bet but looks like he won't be running in this as Jewson or Powers Gold Cup were nimonated instead.
So I'm going to take a chance with Nicholls new recruit Fago. He's got plenty of smart form in France. With a 2nd on his last start in a Grade 1 race worth 250k in prize money. Has been bought by the Wylies and Nicholls already said he has plenty of speed and may turn into an Arkle horse. He runs today. So with the VC concession of non runner free bet he's chanced.
Selection
Fago e/w 25/1 with VC non runner free bet.
Simonsig - He looks a superb horse, but you can't be backing a horse for an Arkle at evens or less antepost. Especially one who's future will be over further. He should win this race but he's no antepost prospect at the prices.
Overturn - Admirable horse, but he's spent too long over Hurdles for me, he's clear 2nd fav at the moment but given I doubt he can beat Simonsig & he's no e/w price he's a no bet.
Arvika Legionare - Another who will be better over further in my opinion, he was jumping to his right at Leopardstown at Christmas and he can't get away with that in an Arkle. He's another who's short enough and a no bet.
Oscars Well - Wouldn't be too bad a bet but looks like he won't be running in this as Jewson or Powers Gold Cup were nimonated instead.
So I'm going to take a chance with Nicholls new recruit Fago. He's got plenty of smart form in France. With a 2nd on his last start in a Grade 1 race worth 250k in prize money. Has been bought by the Wylies and Nicholls already said he has plenty of speed and may turn into an Arkle horse. He runs today. So with the VC concession of non runner free bet he's chanced.
Selection
Fago e/w 25/1 with VC non runner free bet.
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Any videos of fago's last run anywhere? Think al join you in the 25/1 with VC.
Must've been a pretty good race as Hendo now trains the winner. So that's both first two who've in the race been bought.
If he wins today he'll be 14/1 across the board and with Nicholls/Walsh combo at Cheltenham probably go off single figures.
My apologies, I backed him last night.
20/1 with VC or 25/1 general.
20/1 with VC or 25/1 general.
Decided to forsake the NRFB for an extra 5 points myself.
ive joined the fargo gang,taken the 20 VC offer.
Horse could be anything,worth a go.
Horse could be anything,worth a go.
Am happy enough with that. Another front runner in the Arkle?
got on this for the arkle a while ago did not see todays race did he do it well ?
Some of these have to front run in these contests. I'd imagine he'll not make the running in Arkle and just sit in behind the front 3
Happy with that Debut
Happy with that Debut
was todays race at newbury the race nicholls introduced kauto in ?
Thanks for the info. I took some place odds earlier. Any concerns he may head to the Jewson instead?
Nutkins, Kauto was introduced at Newbury but at the 29th Dec meeting. He beat Foreman by nine lengths.
The last six running the favourite had won today's race, including Big Buck's and Finian's Rainbow.
The last six running the favourite had won today's race, including Big Buck's and Finian's Rainbow.
I think he looks like a cracking bet, for the grand national.
Just watched a rerun, having missed it real time. Pleasing enough British debut and jumped well. Looking at his knee action, he wouldn't want the ground to dry out.
He'll likely be ridden to place in the Arkle and not get into a battle with the big 3.
That's fine by me he's 6/1 the place which I'm happy with. Will lay off the win side for free bet if he gets near single figures.
That's fine by me he's 6/1 the place which I'm happy with. Will lay off the win side for free bet if he gets near single figures.
Oscars Well and Captain Conan are ahead of him in the betting and they are unlikely runners.
If I were to price it up day of the race based on likely runners it'd be
Simonsig 8/11
Overturn 9/2
Arvika 11/2
Fago 8/1
Tetlami 12/1
20/1 bar
That's why a 110% book on the top 5
Simonsig 8/11
Overturn 9/2
Arvika 11/2
Fago 8/1
Tetlami 12/1
20/1 bar
That's why a 110% book on the top 5
That was pretty good i thought,jumped well.
Only a 5yr old so should be plenty of improvement to come.
Happy with him and Overturn in my book.
Only a 5yr old so should be plenty of improvement to come.
Happy with him and Overturn in my book.
Wouldn't be one for me personally, although I haven't seen his run today.
It would concern me that he is a 5 year old against horses like Overturn and Simonsig. Not sure how many 5 year olds have ran in the Arkle recently, but the last one to win it was Voy Por, and thats when they used to get the weight for age concession, that they no longer get.
Again, 1 chase win out of 7 in France doesn't scream Arkle winner to me, but like the RSA, the race seems to be lacking any kind of strength in depth at the moment, so his participation is no bad thing.
It would concern me that he is a 5 year old against horses like Overturn and Simonsig. Not sure how many 5 year olds have ran in the Arkle recently, but the last one to win it was Voy Por, and thats when they used to get the weight for age concession, that they no longer get.
Again, 1 chase win out of 7 in France doesn't scream Arkle winner to me, but like the RSA, the race seems to be lacking any kind of strength in depth at the moment, so his participation is no bad thing.
Agree hes got it all to do as a 5yr old but it does mean theres any amount of improvement,although unlikely to come in time for March i would think,but as you say hes an interesting addition to the race.
Think he has a very sound chance of placing in the Arkle. Watched his race and it was a nice debut.
yeh,he must have a chance of placing,the field aint that deep in class.
Never know,as hes young and improving,he could trouble the favs,stranger things have happened.
Never know,as hes young and improving,he could trouble the favs,stranger things have happened.
Agreed bud, he could improve and run a very good race nto in King Maker. He's you so open to plenty of improvement.
Arvika might find the trip a bit short and his jumping to the right is a bit of a worry. Also He could get into a battle with Overturn which could cost them their chance.
Who knows, looks the only e/w value in the race to me and I'm happy to be aboard.
Arvika might find the trip a bit short and his jumping to the right is a bit of a worry. Also He could get into a battle with Overturn which could cost them their chance.
Who knows, looks the only e/w value in the race to me and I'm happy to be aboard.
He jumped very well right up until the point when he was really asked a question at the last so that's a slight concern, there was something about his action that was unusual, short choppy sort of strides sort of,I'd actually question whether he wants soft ground, if you've got big prices it's fair enough.
Took Simonsig at 10/3 and 11/4 again and appreciate it was short at the time. It seems like it's gonna be a very small field and the opposition don't fear me at all. Think he will hose up.
Fago can only place at best but bigger on a place that Si on the win. That's value.
Fago can only place at best but bigger on a place that Si on the win. That's value.
Budd, with improving, I suppose its how you measure the potential of a horse to improve. Its a tricky one, imo, because do you go by age or experience? (not a question to you, just one in general).
On one hand Fago is only 5, so you expect a lot of improvement compared to Simonsig as a 7 year old and Overturn as a 9 year old. But on the other hand, Fago has already had 8 chase starts, whereas Simonsig and Overturn only 2. So Fago has got much more chasing expericence than the others, and normally chaser like him from France have already been running at a much higher level than our novice chasers, who run in small fields at long odds on.
Therefore, despite being older, I think Simonsig and Overturn are probably more open to improvement than Fago is. But as I said everyone probably judges this differently.
On one hand Fago is only 5, so you expect a lot of improvement compared to Simonsig as a 7 year old and Overturn as a 9 year old. But on the other hand, Fago has already had 8 chase starts, whereas Simonsig and Overturn only 2. So Fago has got much more chasing expericence than the others, and normally chaser like him from France have already been running at a much higher level than our novice chasers, who run in small fields at long odds on.
Therefore, despite being older, I think Simonsig and Overturn are probably more open to improvement than Fago is. But as I said everyone probably judges this differently.
Good points chief,yes i was going on his being only a 5yr old,but of course they start earlier in France so yes its possible i may be thinking their is more improvement then actually will come.
To be honest i wanted another to go with Overturn,and he at 20's i thought worth a shot.I am more hopeful than anything,but you never know mate.
Simonsig should still be improving i would think,although he does appear to be at quiet a high level already,so i wonder how much?
Overturn is too old to be improving as a racehorse,but as a chaser he could improve with experience of jumping fences i guess.With him i'm hoping his level is good enough already to win the Arkle.He's a horse that if he gets into a nice rhythm out in front,no horse behind can afford one mistake.
To be honest i wanted another to go with Overturn,and he at 20's i thought worth a shot.I am more hopeful than anything,but you never know mate.
Simonsig should still be improving i would think,although he does appear to be at quiet a high level already,so i wonder how much?
Overturn is too old to be improving as a racehorse,but as a chaser he could improve with experience of jumping fences i guess.With him i'm hoping his level is good enough already to win the Arkle.He's a horse that if he gets into a nice rhythm out in front,no horse behind can afford one mistake.
I like overturn but simonsig or any other horse for that matter could still be improving, he's at a high level already, but that is because he is a seriously good race horse and the level he is at already is his starting point if you like, there is nothing to stop him improving still further at a rate in line or superior to others, he is just at an elevated level for starters because he's quality....with fago, I'm wondering about his french form, he's got beat a lot hasn't he, that thing that hendo has beat him early doors along with a good few others.
yep,all fair points Duffy.
I always find novice racing intriguing with seeing how they all improve as they gain more experience.
Trying to work em out is tricky at best,but i do enjoy the challenge.
I always find novice racing intriguing with seeing how they all improve as they gain more experience.
Trying to work em out is tricky at best,but i do enjoy the challenge.
And you were handsomely rewarded with AF of course, I do hope overturn can win, It's quite possible that he can have his day in the sun, might be pushing the sun bit, and simonsig still go on to great things in time...overturn hasn't got the luxury of too much time.
The one thing that improves a horse the most is maturity, i.e age/physical improvement. Only when they get the experience they become the complete package, like all sports. I cannot have Overturn being open to further improvement than Fago at all. I think that's bizarre.
Fair point sint, and in the long term it may be that fago with time on his side can reach a high level, but the arkle is not long term, it is now and I for one don't think that fago can improve past him as early as right now, as I mentioned earlier, how good are all those horses that kept beating him in france, it just doesn't sound right that he can get beat regularly over there but then come and be competitive in an arkle.
Sint, as for the Arkle (in the short term), I think Overturn is open to much more improvement than Fago.
The young French ones come over at a much higher level than our novices, and are already more exposed imo. They've had a lot more chases, and are usually taught to jump fences differently.
Compare that to Overturn, who only has had two chase starts and has been taught to jump properly, between New Year and March, he still has loads of untapped potential over fences, and a change of race type / scenery can bring out great improvement.
Long term, Fago has age on his side, whereas Overturn doesn't, but as far as the Arkle is concerned....
The young French ones come over at a much higher level than our novices, and are already more exposed imo. They've had a lot more chases, and are usually taught to jump fences differently.
Compare that to Overturn, who only has had two chase starts and has been taught to jump properly, between New Year and March, he still has loads of untapped potential over fences, and a change of race type / scenery can bring out great improvement.
Long term, Fago has age on his side, whereas Overturn doesn't, but as far as the Arkle is concerned....
Sorry Duffy, just realised that I have repeated everything you've said!
fago was getting turned over in france but the races he was getting beat in were at distances in ecxess of 2.4 miles,hendo one beat him in a valuable chase in his final french race ,but fago was well clear untill weakening in the final part of the race according to reports ,nicholls obviously sees fago as being better at shorter hence arkle entry,he may not be good enough to beat the front 2 or 3 but should improve on his debut win at newbury and at double figga odds and with the champion trainer easy to see the attraction ! had a punt at average 26 on here before newbury for arkle !
Donald taking Overturn to Musselburgh for his final preparation apparently. Love it.....right handed, very sharp, fences as soft as sh!t.....very bold.
does he need one then?
hes proved he can jump fences well at 2m,just a last race to get him right for March.
whats yer problem with that?
hes proved he can jump fences well at 2m,just a last race to get him right for March.
whats yer problem with that?
Not a problem for me at all. I don't fancy him for the Arkle. As a prep for Cheltenham though I'm unconvinced it will help a lot.
well if it puts him spot on for march,thats job done as far as prep is concerned.
as a backer i am quiet happy with that.
as a backer i am quiet happy with that.
In keeping with many on here, backed Fago pre Newbury at 27 and keep backing at 16s.
This horse is the new apple of PFN's eye. Don't be surprised to see him 2nd fav after the Kingmaker.
This horse is the new apple of PFN's eye. Don't be surprised to see him 2nd fav after the Kingmaker.
Only two winners over 8yo of the Arkle since 1960. Overturn is 9 and for me cannot beat Simonsig
I was looking through past races yesterday and found quite an interesting stat.
100% of Arkle winners have been horses with 4 legs. On that basis you have to rule Overturn back in, because he fits the bill perfectly.
I am a keen follower of this stat, and it has served me well in the past.
100% of Arkle winners have been horses with 4 legs. On that basis you have to rule Overturn back in, because he fits the bill perfectly.
I am a keen follower of this stat, and it has served me well in the past.
haha wellchief, there are lies damned lies and statistics!
Just as well EDEN ROCK never went fencing and ended up in the arkle because I remember him having 5 legs one day at goodwood.
Ronaldo Des Mottes potentially interesting Arkle entry - Pipe has him entered in novice chase at Taunton next Tuesday (some very decent animals entered in same race).
Overturn is just as good now as he was when he was a 7 year old, if not better.
If he loses the Arkle to Simonsig (or whoever), it will be because he wasn't good enough on the day, and nothing to do with age.
If you rule him out because of ability, then fair enough; but because he is a 9 year, that old means nothing imo.
If he loses the Arkle to Simonsig (or whoever), it will be because he wasn't good enough on the day, and nothing to do with age.
If you rule him out because of ability, then fair enough; but because he is a 9 year, that old means nothing imo.
Exactly,the stat is meaningless.
He will take some beating if hes out in front jumping well which judging by his chases so far is very likely.
He will take some beating if hes out in front jumping well which judging by his chases so far is very likely.
I would not hold Fago's french form against him. He is trained by Paul Nicholls now!!!! Guaranteed to improve.
Race is wide open barring Simonsig after what happened in Ireland today.
Race is wide open barring Simonsig after what happened in Ireland today.
Bloody Oscars Well so frustrating, wouldn't mind seeing a diff jockey on him as power seems to have no idea how to show a horse a fence.
Power was a top class show jumper, look back at the race again and see how he presented oscars at the fences down the back straight.
Just because a horse puts down at the last fence doesn't make him a bad rider.
Just because a horse puts down at the last fence doesn't make him a bad rider.
Yeah he seems fine when he sits up right letting the horse pop. But as soon as a race starts he always seems in two minds coming into every obstacle. Just my personal opinion on him. Regarding the horse, seems to make a habit of stumbling at the last. Oscars Well is really in need of better ground, looked like they were watering skiing at one stage.
Brookisie, we've had done our cash, simple as that. I accepted that after Xmas. He has plenty of wins on Heavy so can't blame that. Only option now is to try a longer trip.
Oscars Well is not a top class chaser and never will be. Also regarding the Arkle i've no idea why Arvika Ligeonniere is still been targeted at this one with the likes of Simonsig and Overturn in the race as a contested lead is guaranteed so this will just put his suspect jumping into play more. Was surprised how connections got so carried away with AL's win against Dedigout (poorly judged ride at a trip way too short for him). Hopefully WM gets some sense and switches him to the Jewson where we know he gets the trip and the opposition are nothing of the calibre giving him a much better chance of winning. imo. GLTA.
I've never bought the 'longer trip' thing with Oscars Well and still wouldn't touch him with a barge pole if he come to Cheltenham for the Jewson.
He simply isn't the horse he was 2 seasons ago (I was his biggest fan at the time and said he could be the next Best Mate. Every run he has done since that last flight blunder in the 2011 Neptune has suggested that he isn't the same horse which is why I was happy to leave the big prices some tipped up for the Arkle alone until he proved otherwise.
He simply isn't the horse he was 2 seasons ago (I was his biggest fan at the time and said he could be the next Best Mate. Every run he has done since that last flight blunder in the 2011 Neptune has suggested that he isn't the same horse which is why I was happy to leave the big prices some tipped up for the Arkle alone until he proved otherwise.
Well done to CVB for nominating Fago 2 weeks ago. Looking at the Arkle market today, there must be real doubts about Arvika Legionaire, Oscars Well and Captain Conan (Jewson)running in this. Fago is likely to go off 3rd favourite at a single figure price.
ive backed arvika legionare and maybe foolishly still not given up on him. i know he fell on sat but i thought he jumped much straighter prior to coming down so maybe not all doom and gloom. will be interesting to see if ruby sticks with him or rides fago. i know simonsig looks good but maybe this fella or overturn can get him out of his comfort zone cos to be fair the 2 mile novice chase races up to now have been egg and spoon races.
Module is running tomorrow over 2miles, and I think he is a very interesting dark horse for the Arkle. He won on his hurdle debut in January last year at Cheltenham, we never saw him again. Sent straight over fences this season and after tipping up on his debut he returned to win a decent race at Newbury showing no ill affects from his fall and jumping nicely.
He still has a long way to go but he is completely unexposed, trainer was sounding very excited in a recent stable tour about him. For me the market has very little strength in depth after the principles; Oscars Well may not go now, can't see Nicky running Captain Conan against Simonsig, and his other runner Tetlami I think will be Grand Annual bound. Bostons Bob/Aupcharlie have other targets, then comes Module @ 40/1, I think he is a cracking each way punt and I've had a wee bet.
He still has a long way to go but he is completely unexposed, trainer was sounding very excited in a recent stable tour about him. For me the market has very little strength in depth after the principles; Oscars Well may not go now, can't see Nicky running Captain Conan against Simonsig, and his other runner Tetlami I think will be Grand Annual bound. Bostons Bob/Aupcharlie have other targets, then comes Module @ 40/1, I think he is a cracking each way punt and I've had a wee bet.
I like your thinking GI MAC but we wont be learning much tomorrow as hes forecast to go off 1/7 so can't think the books will shorten it after the race, or will they
Pretty sure they will,they did with Hurricane Fly any horse winning will be shorter after race no matter what trees it beat.
Not looking too great for module, runs and wins (all be it a weak race) a novice chase at leic' giving away 7ib but pulling a cart and none of the books shorten him from 40s after race. And £33 keeps appearing wanting to lay at 44 on here in Arkle. I think he will run in a handicap now, so we prob done our doe
Not given up hope yet, we'll see. I'm with VC so free bet if he's NR.
SEATHESTARS i'm going to have to watch that Module race again because in the race i watched it looked like he was pulling a cart the way he had to be pushed out to win. imo he has zero chance in the Arkle. just saying.
if module wins the arkle, i think i might just give up.
Fago is the only each way value left in the race, its a tight market with such a strong favourite
likeable, straightforward, organised, professional performance from Overturn as per - he'll give Simonsig something to think about in the Arkle at the very least.
He pings his fences, very low, my worry would be if he gets it wrong he could do what al ferof did last year.
Cant crab that jumping display, low is fast popped when he got close, if he makes a mistake it will because a better horse has got him at it.
i think Simonsig will try and take him on at cheltenham if Arvika doesnt. still jumps fences like hurdles.
No test at all today as Tetlami's jumping not good enough to exact any pressure. I doubt whether Overturn's jumping will gain him much if any ground against scopier rivals. Doubt if Geraghty will try it but I suspect Simonsig would give him real problems if allowed to jump upsides.
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