Cheltenham Festival
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Arkle
Simonsig - He looks a superb horse, but you can't be backing a horse for an Arkle at evens or less antepost. Especially one who's future will be over further. He should win this race but he's no antepost prospect at the prices.
Overturn - Admirable horse, but he's spent too long over Hurdles for me, he's clear 2nd fav at the moment but given I doubt he can beat Simonsig & he's no e/w price he's a no bet.
Arvika Legionare - Another who will be better over further in my opinion, he was jumping to his right at Leopardstown at Christmas and he can't get away with that in an Arkle. He's another who's short enough and a no bet.
Oscars Well - Wouldn't be too bad a bet but looks like he won't be running in this as Jewson or Powers Gold Cup were nimonated instead.
So I'm going to take a chance with Nicholls new recruit Fago. He's got plenty of smart form in France. With a 2nd on his last start in a Grade 1 race worth 250k in prize money. Has been bought by the Wylies and Nicholls already said he has plenty of speed and may turn into an Arkle horse. He runs today. So with the VC concession of non runner free bet he's chanced.
Selection
Fago e/w 25/1 with VC non runner free bet.
Simonsig - He looks a superb horse, but you can't be backing a horse for an Arkle at evens or less antepost. Especially one who's future will be over further. He should win this race but he's no antepost prospect at the prices.
Overturn - Admirable horse, but he's spent too long over Hurdles for me, he's clear 2nd fav at the moment but given I doubt he can beat Simonsig & he's no e/w price he's a no bet.
Arvika Legionare - Another who will be better over further in my opinion, he was jumping to his right at Leopardstown at Christmas and he can't get away with that in an Arkle. He's another who's short enough and a no bet.
Oscars Well - Wouldn't be too bad a bet but looks like he won't be running in this as Jewson or Powers Gold Cup were nimonated instead.
So I'm going to take a chance with Nicholls new recruit Fago. He's got plenty of smart form in France. With a 2nd on his last start in a Grade 1 race worth 250k in prize money. Has been bought by the Wylies and Nicholls already said he has plenty of speed and may turn into an Arkle horse. He runs today. So with the VC concession of non runner free bet he's chanced.
Selection
Fago e/w 25/1 with VC non runner free bet.
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Any videos of fago's last run anywhere? Think al join you in the 25/1 with VC.
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Must've been a pretty good race as Hendo now trains the winner. So that's both first two who've in the race been bought.
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Been 20's since early this morning
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If he wins today he'll be 14/1 across the board and with Nicholls/Walsh combo at Cheltenham probably go off single figures.
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My apologies, I backed him last night.
20/1 with VC or 25/1 general. |
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Decided to forsake the NRFB for an extra 5 points myself.
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ive joined the fargo gang,taken the 20 VC offer.
Horse could be anything,worth a go. |
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Am happy enough with that. Another front runner in the Arkle?
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got on this for the arkle a while ago did not see todays race did he do it well ?
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Some of these have to front run in these contests. I'd imagine he'll not make the running in Arkle and just sit in behind the front 3
Happy with that Debut |
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was todays race at newbury the race nicholls introduced kauto in ?
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Thanks for the info. I took some place odds earlier. Any concerns he may head to the Jewson instead?
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Nutkins, Kauto was introduced at Newbury but at the 29th Dec meeting. He beat Foreman by nine lengths.
The last six running the favourite had won today's race, including Big Buck's and Finian's Rainbow. |
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FOYLES rather, apologies
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I think he looks like a cracking bet, for the grand national.
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Nailed on Arkle runner by comments on Racing UK.
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Just watched a rerun, having missed it real time. Pleasing enough British debut and jumped well. Looking at his knee action, he wouldn't want the ground to dry out.
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He'll likely be ridden to place in the Arkle and not get into a battle with the big 3.
That's fine by me he's 6/1 the place which I'm happy with. Will lay off the win side for free bet if he gets near single figures. |
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Jumped well enough, won't be 16/1 on the day
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Oscars Well and Captain Conan are ahead of him in the betting and they are unlikely runners.
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If I were to price it up day of the race based on likely runners it'd be
Simonsig 8/11 Overturn 9/2 Arvika 11/2 Fago 8/1 Tetlami 12/1 20/1 bar That's why a 110% book on the top 5 |
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That was pretty good i thought,jumped well.
Only a 5yr old so should be plenty of improvement to come. Happy with him and Overturn in my book. |
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Wouldn't be one for me personally, although I haven't seen his run today.
It would concern me that he is a 5 year old against horses like Overturn and Simonsig. Not sure how many 5 year olds have ran in the Arkle recently, but the last one to win it was Voy Por, and thats when they used to get the weight for age concession, that they no longer get. Again, 1 chase win out of 7 in France doesn't scream Arkle winner to me, but like the RSA, the race seems to be lacking any kind of strength in depth at the moment, so his participation is no bad thing. |
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Agree hes got it all to do as a 5yr old but it does mean theres any amount of improvement,although unlikely to come in time for March i would think,but as you say hes an interesting addition to the race.
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Think he has a very sound chance of placing in the Arkle. Watched his race and it was a nice debut.
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yeh,he must have a chance of placing,the field aint that deep in class.
Never know,as hes young and improving,he could trouble the favs,stranger things have happened. |
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Agreed bud, he could improve and run a very good race nto in King Maker. He's you so open to plenty of improvement.
Arvika might find the trip a bit short and his jumping to the right is a bit of a worry. Also He could get into a battle with Overturn which could cost them their chance. Who knows, looks the only e/w value in the race to me and I'm happy to be aboard. |
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He jumped very well right up until the point when he was really asked a question at the last so that's a slight concern, there was something about his action that was unusual, short choppy sort of strides sort of,I'd actually question whether he wants soft ground, if you've got big prices it's fair enough.
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Took Simonsig at 10/3 and 11/4 again and appreciate it was short at the time. It seems like it's gonna be a very small field and the opposition don't fear me at all. Think he will hose up.
Fago can only place at best but bigger on a place that Si on the win. That's value. |
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It's the only value left I can see to be honest.
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Budd, with improving, I suppose its how you measure the potential of a horse to improve. Its a tricky one, imo, because do you go by age or experience? (not a question to you, just one in general).
On one hand Fago is only 5, so you expect a lot of improvement compared to Simonsig as a 7 year old and Overturn as a 9 year old. But on the other hand, Fago has already had 8 chase starts, whereas Simonsig and Overturn only 2. So Fago has got much more chasing expericence than the others, and normally chaser like him from France have already been running at a much higher level than our novice chasers, who run in small fields at long odds on. Therefore, despite being older, I think Simonsig and Overturn are probably more open to improvement than Fago is. But as I said everyone probably judges this differently. |
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Good points chief,yes i was going on his being only a 5yr old,but of course they start earlier in France so yes its possible i may be thinking their is more improvement then actually will come.
To be honest i wanted another to go with Overturn,and he at 20's i thought worth a shot.I am more hopeful than anything,but you never know mate. Simonsig should still be improving i would think,although he does appear to be at quiet a high level already,so i wonder how much? Overturn is too old to be improving as a racehorse,but as a chaser he could improve with experience of jumping fences i guess.With him i'm hoping his level is good enough already to win the Arkle.He's a horse that if he gets into a nice rhythm out in front,no horse behind can afford one mistake. |
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I like overturn but simonsig or any other horse for that matter could still be improving, he's at a high level already, but that is because he is a seriously good race horse and the level he is at already is his starting point if you like, there is nothing to stop him improving still further at a rate in line or superior to others, he is just at an elevated level for starters because he's quality....with fago, I'm wondering about his french form, he's got beat a lot hasn't he, that thing that hendo has beat him early doors along with a good few others.
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yep,all fair points Duffy.
I always find novice racing intriguing with seeing how they all improve as they gain more experience. Trying to work em out is tricky at best,but i do enjoy the challenge. |
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And you were handsomely rewarded with AF of course, I do hope overturn can win, It's quite possible that he can have his day in the sun, might be pushing the sun bit, and simonsig still go on to great things in time...overturn hasn't got the luxury of too much time.
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The one thing that improves a horse the most is maturity, i.e age/physical improvement. Only when they get the experience they become the complete package, like all sports. I cannot have Overturn being open to further improvement than Fago at all. I think that's bizarre.
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Fair point sint, and in the long term it may be that fago with time on his side can reach a high level, but the arkle is not long term, it is now and I for one don't think that fago can improve past him as early as right now, as I mentioned earlier, how good are all those horses that kept beating him in france, it just doesn't sound right that he can get beat regularly over there but then come and be competitive in an arkle.
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Sint, as for the Arkle (in the short term), I think Overturn is open to much more improvement than Fago.
The young French ones come over at a much higher level than our novices, and are already more exposed imo. They've had a lot more chases, and are usually taught to jump fences differently. Compare that to Overturn, who only has had two chase starts and has been taught to jump properly, between New Year and March, he still has loads of untapped potential over fences, and a change of race type / scenery can bring out great improvement. Long term, Fago has age on his side, whereas Overturn doesn't, but as far as the Arkle is concerned.... |
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Sorry Duffy, just realised that I have repeated everything you've said!
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