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Arkle Antepost
Arkle Antepost
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fago was getting turned over in france but the races he was getting beat in were at distances in ecxess of 2.4 miles,hendo one beat him in a valuable chase in his final french race ,but fago was well clear untill weakening in the final part of the race according to reports ,nicholls obviously sees fago as being better at shorter hence arkle entry,he may not be good enough to beat the front 2 or 3 but should improve on his debut win at newbury and at double figga odds and with the champion trainer easy to see the attraction ! had a punt at average 26 on here before newbury for arkle !
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Donald taking Overturn to Musselburgh for his final preparation apparently. Love it.....right handed, very sharp, fences as soft as sh!t.....very bold.
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point?
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where do you think he should run ?
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I thought I had made it budd. No test at all.
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does he need one then?
hes proved he can jump fences well at 2m,just a last race to get him right for March. whats yer problem with that? |
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Not a problem for me at all. I don't fancy him for the Arkle. As a prep for Cheltenham though I'm unconvinced it will help a lot.
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well if it puts him spot on for march,thats job done as far as prep is concerned.
as a backer i am quiet happy with that. |
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In keeping with many on here, backed Fago pre Newbury at 27 and keep backing at 16s.
This horse is the new apple of PFN's eye. Don't be surprised to see him 2nd fav after the Kingmaker. |
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Only two winners over 8yo of the Arkle since 1960. Overturn is 9 and for me cannot beat Simonsig
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How many ran?
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Oscars well is the one :)
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I was looking through past races yesterday and found quite an interesting stat.
100% of Arkle winners have been horses with 4 legs. On that basis you have to rule Overturn back in, because he fits the bill perfectly. I am a keen follower of this stat, and it has served me well in the past. |
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Overturn will not win the Arkle.
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haha wellchief, there are lies damned lies and statistics!
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Just as well EDEN ROCK never went fencing and ended up in the arkle because I remember him having 5 legs one day at goodwood.
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Ronaldo Des Mottes potentially interesting Arkle entry - Pipe has him entered in novice chase at Taunton next Tuesday (some very decent animals entered in same race).
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Bally,is the 9 yr old stat your main reason?
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Overturn is just as good now as he was when he was a 7 year old, if not better.
If he loses the Arkle to Simonsig (or whoever), it will be because he wasn't good enough on the day, and nothing to do with age. If you rule him out because of ability, then fair enough; but because he is a 9 year, that old means nothing imo. |
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Exactly,the stat is meaningless.
He will take some beating if hes out in front jumping well which judging by his chases so far is very likely. |
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I would not hold Fago's french form against him. He is trained by Paul Nicholls now!!!! Guaranteed to improve.
Race is wide open barring Simonsig after what happened in Ireland today. |
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Bloody Oscars Well so frustrating, wouldn't mind seeing a diff jockey on him as power seems to have no idea how to show a horse a fence.
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Power was a top class show jumper, look back at the race again and see how he presented oscars at the fences down the back straight.
Just because a horse puts down at the last fence doesn't make him a bad rider. |
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Yeah he seems fine when he sits up right letting the horse pop. But as soon as a race starts he always seems in two minds coming into every obstacle. Just my personal opinion on him. Regarding the horse, seems to make a habit of stumbling at the last. Oscars Well is really in need of better ground, looked like they were watering skiing at one stage.
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Brookisie, we've had done our cash, simple as that. I accepted that after Xmas. He has plenty of wins on Heavy so can't blame that. Only option now is to try a longer trip.
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Oscars Well is not a top class chaser and never will be. Also regarding the Arkle i've no idea why Arvika Ligeonniere is still been targeted at this one with the likes of Simonsig and Overturn in the race as a contested lead is guaranteed so this will just put his suspect jumping into play more. Was surprised how connections got so carried away with AL's win against Dedigout (poorly judged ride at a trip way too short for him). Hopefully WM gets some sense and switches him to the Jewson where we know he gets the trip and the opposition are nothing of the calibre giving him a much better chance of winning. imo. GLTA.
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I've never bought the 'longer trip' thing with Oscars Well and still wouldn't touch him with a barge pole if he come to Cheltenham for the Jewson.
He simply isn't the horse he was 2 seasons ago (I was his biggest fan at the time and said he could be the next Best Mate. Every run he has done since that last flight blunder in the 2011 Neptune has suggested that he isn't the same horse which is why I was happy to leave the big prices some tipped up for the Arkle alone until he proved otherwise. |
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Well done to CVB for nominating Fago 2 weeks ago. Looking at the Arkle market today, there must be real doubts about Arvika Legionaire, Oscars Well and Captain Conan (Jewson)running in this. Fago is likely to go off 3rd favourite at a single figure price.
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ive backed arvika legionare and maybe foolishly still not given up on him. i know he fell on sat but i thought he jumped much straighter prior to coming down so maybe not all doom and gloom. will be interesting to see if ruby sticks with him or rides fago. i know simonsig looks good but maybe this fella or overturn can get him out of his comfort zone cos to be fair the 2 mile novice chase races up to now have been egg and spoon races.
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Module is running tomorrow over 2miles, and I think he is a very interesting dark horse for the Arkle. He won on his hurdle debut in January last year at Cheltenham, we never saw him again. Sent straight over fences this season and after tipping up on his debut he returned to win a decent race at Newbury showing no ill affects from his fall and jumping nicely.
He still has a long way to go but he is completely unexposed, trainer was sounding very excited in a recent stable tour about him. For me the market has very little strength in depth after the principles; Oscars Well may not go now, can't see Nicky running Captain Conan against Simonsig, and his other runner Tetlami I think will be Grand Annual bound. Bostons Bob/Aupcharlie have other targets, then comes Module @ 40/1, I think he is a cracking each way punt and I've had a wee bet. |
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I like your thinking GI MAC but we wont be learning much tomorrow as hes forecast to go off 1/7 so can't think the books will shorten it after the race, or will they
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Pretty sure they will,they did with Hurricane Fly any horse winning will be shorter after race no matter what trees it beat.
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Not looking too great for module, runs and wins (all be it a weak race) a novice chase at leic' giving away 7ib but pulling a cart and none of the books shorten him from 40s after race. And £33 keeps appearing wanting to lay at 44 on here in Arkle. I think he will run in a handicap now, so we prob done our doe
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Not given up hope yet, we'll see. I'm with VC so free bet if he's NR.
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SEATHESTARS i'm going to have to watch that Module race again because in the race i watched it looked like he was pulling a cart the way he had to be pushed out to win. imo he has zero chance in the Arkle. just saying.
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if module wins the arkle, i think i might just give up.
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Module winning the Arkle?
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Fago is the only each way value left in the race, its a tight market with such a strong favourite
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likeable, straightforward, organised, professional performance from Overturn as per - he'll give Simonsig something to think about in the Arkle at the very least.
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He pings his fences, very low, my worry would be if he gets it wrong he could do what al ferof did last year.
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