First Lieutenant, Ryanair or Gold Cup?

Sprinter Sacre was Evens when VC just launched NRFB...Simonsig was 10/3 with sporting bett in November

If you look closely at an Overturn thread you will see a while back I am all over Simonsig taking this and that thread is a few months ago

So all you've cocked up is rocky creek? Full of it.

I also fully expect Bobs Worth to be unplaced in the Gold Cup although I took 9/2 last December.dont think he has a hope in hells chance to win this

Jeezo man....hard work this....look more closely....can two horses win the same race?

In light of how this thread is going - happy to disagree with you. Again!

Cocked up Rocky...Grandouet....Puffin...Bobs Worth...and maybe Smad Place

Might have fooked up FL also....but doubt it

The fact that you are furiously out posting me by at least 2 to 1 on this thread speaks for itself!!!

The fact that you are furiously out posting me 2-1 speaks for itself!!!

Not really man....

Good luck to you though...hope you have a good 4 days

Ditto, I'm with you on most of the aforementioned anyway!

Ballydoyle Date 08 Mar 13 14:39
O'Leary will want Davy on board as well cos that other lad Cooper aint Cheltenham class. Everyone in the world is saying FL should run in the Ryanair including Walsh and Geraghty at a preview the other night, as well as Davy himself...forget what morris says - he'll do as he's **** told

FL has been targeted as a Gold Cup horse, of that there is no doubt but after the Lexus connections just know that SDC is a more substantial candidate. In fact, its getting boring talking about it and trying to convince certain people that they're just wasting their money backing him in a Gold Cup. I've said it for two months, I've told the lads to pile in to the Ryanair for long enough and I'll honestly just laugh my arse off if he doesnt run on Thursday.

Just checked - that "other lad Cooper" has 53 winners so far this season and Mouse specificially said the lad gets on very well with First L.

The gound may be 'good' by Friday - the (air) temperatures are set to rise as the week progresses !!!

The Lieutenant is my fav horse of all time followed him throughout, the horse is a stone better on good ground, Cooper gets on with him much better than Russell, in my view he would win the Ryan Air  only needs to be ridden positively. However his trainer has him targeted at the GC ready to run the race of his life - he wins or is second to Bobs Worth. Be brave !

How many winners Cooper had round Chelts?

That's the spirit liver. Let's go for it. Hoping the ground will have dried up a bit by Friday and he will jump for fun.

"stone better on good ground"     will be soft all week mate

I know, but I get all misty eyed when it comes to FL. backed it in the Neptune and ew in the RSA. Owes me nothing, and would love to see it win the GC. Hard to imagine, but even us stats guys have to bow to blind faith now and again!!!

I had £150 ew at 8/1 on my 40th birthday to win Neptune on visit to Cheltenham brilliant shouting him home

That makes us the same age. It's an omen. Come on mouse, make the right shout!!!

Seriously though, has it fared that badly on soft this past winter? And it always improves for the spring on it back.

That makes us the same age. It's an omen

spooky me too

he improoves for the better ground mate and there will be no sun next week, ive backed it for the ryanair and not so confident now

Either way mate, I'll be backing it if it switches to the Ryanair.

But hope it acts on the soft at least as well as it did in the Lexus. If it does that it will still have every chance. Keep the faith!

Just feel the horse is growing up, best jumper in the race only scared of Bobs Worth,  Nicholls horse is lay of the week even for a place

how many Gold Cup winners had not won a race for 17 months before winning? how many Gold Cup winners had not won a chase outside novice company? if not none then very very few

just saying, on an objective level, the horse just does not win often enough to be considered a winner of the Gold Cup, not won at 3 miles, not won a race this season - all very strong pointers

as for the Ryan Air well that is ear marked

soon find out

Morning Judo

Not sure about the 17 month bit but in the last 20 or so years, I think Mr Mulligan was the last novice only winner at 20/1 and my favourite Garrison Sav at 16/1 before that.

All irrelevant really as FL looks most likely to run in the Ryanair, which is a shame as MM seems to want to run him in the Gold Cup.

Still no sign of the saga ending.

Will surely do a Dynaste on it and go the shorter route to victory ?

any comments of any kind?

With the ground being against SDC maybe he will run in gold cup

I don't see the ground is against SDC, he's won a grade 1 on heavy, it may not be ideal but will be good to soft come Friday which will be fine

Hope so m8

the ground will be the same for them all and unless you are proven not to act then your chance won't be affected, best horse will win more than likely

Judo, the current forecast is for heavy rain Friday so I wouldn't be counting on G/S just yet

4mm by 3pm expected Friday

http://www.myweather2.com/Horse-Racing/United-Kingdom/Cheltenham-Racecourse.aspx?sday=0&eday=7

None of us KNOW what the ground will be on Friday.
Claisse said it would be soft all week the other day,im afraid we will have to wait a lot longer before we know for definite what it will be.
And thats why we wont know what FL is doing till the last possible moment,and fair enough imo.

With the ground like this surely FL will be Ryanair bound

They might make a decision after a few races have been run tomorrow.

AS far as I can see the decision has been made over a week ago, but some are too thick headed to admit it.

People are referring to the Official decision, Monkfields. Nothing to do with being thick but you're in good company.

Confirmed for ryanair on racing post

Never a doubt

Where is it confirmed? Link?

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd

These things happen. It's obviously influenced by the weather, so we will just have to get on with it. I'd have been more suprised if it was the gold cup.

Genuinely bad luck to GC backers. FWIW I'm not sure the weather has had too much to do with it and they have probably just waited until SDC had travelled over and confirmed OK.

Good news for me,feel for those its not good news for though.

Was always the plan,  purely backup to SDC.

Yep

Indeed.

Catch Me ifyoucan 11 Mar 13 15:05 Will surely do a Dynaste on it and go the shorter route to victory ?

Best of Luck to BJ COOPER

Thread. Is now closed.

no need to feel for me Budde. I accept the risks of ante-post betting.

Hopefully Champion Court will serve it up to him any how. I've 11/1 on that, you boys have 10/1 on FL.

May the best horse win.

No I have 12a sint . I wish I'd had more on now

If it was a ground decision they could always change their mind, it didn't look at all bad today.

Will not win the Ryanair,Will be powering home from a hopeless position and Davy will get off and tell them it needs 3 Miles plus.

18/1 for me but had same for Gold cup, lets hope FL wins :)

im just a caring person Sint.
Good luck mate for rest of week.

Ran in the wrong race,O'Leary would want to listen to Mouse Morris in the future.

14 pages and all for nothing - not quite as bad as the last two 1,000 Guineas threads but still 'what a waste of ink'.

It wasn't for nothing. He ran...in the wrong race !

If he couldn't win the Ryanair what chance the GC to be fair? I don't think the change of jockey at the last minute probably helped, and he did hit a couple, but fair play to Cue Card backers he won very well

Cue Card has speed. FL does not, blatantly the wrong race.

cheers Budde. Did my dough anyway!   all on Our Conor now.

was blatantly obvious as I repeatedly said, well obvious to me as I just kept it simple and used BW to judge the form

sometimes people can't see the wood for the trees however much it gets discussed

gl with OC sint

His trainer has repeatedly said he's a stayer,Well done Mr O'Leary,And not one winner for such a huge operation is almost embarrassing.

Tofino Bay was desperately unlucky apart from that they've not really gone close

SDC will put that right tomoz

This may be a very strong tip for SDC in the Gold Cup. It is also a vindication of the winner's Arkle form, whose second to the monster was probably the best effort in the novice chase ranks at Cheltenham last year, bar of course one.

I don't understand the decision - he may have not being showing much at home and they thought it was the easier race which I prophisised somewhere in this thresd - if the ground had been heavy then ok but he even had his ground now and was a solid eway chance for the GC.

Ah well, eway backers did alright out of it..... and I backed Cue Card at an inflated price :)

He was trained all season for the Gold Cup,then the ground came right for the Gold Cup,and yet he ran in the Ryanair??
Just dont make sense,surely the horse had everything going for a tilt at the biggie.

Owner just trying to win both races.
Reckon he has regrets right now.

correct Budde, trying to have his cake and eat it. Though I suppose they won't might if SDC wins the big one.

Not that I could back him, think he's should be 4th fav not second.

going to get that one wrong too then sint, SDC is going to destroy them even with McCoy up although I will be holding my breath and watching from behind the sofa

Bobsworth, Judo.

SDC ran far better than I thought he would tbf.

Mmm. I wonder if Ballydoyle still thinks FL was going backwards in the Lexus after the last. I mean, even Stevie Wonder could see that, right?

O'Leary may have left a Gold Cup behind with that ridiculous decision

Not surprised to see this thread rear its head again

I'll admit I've not watched the race, but serious question guys, did beating Menorah really prove that much?

He certainly stayed well, and that largely was the point, although obviously Aintree is somewhat different to Cheltenham.

But surely 'staying' is only relative to the horses you beat and that was the point I was making. All of a sudden by beating Menorah 1/2 a length it suggests he would have beaten BW at Cheltenham - really stretching it imo

My point is you runs horses in races they are best equipped to win. FL has no pace for 20f.

I think with the rain that fell on Gold Cup day it's hard to see how FL would have beaten Bobs Worth - might have dead heated for 2nd with SDC though.

Well, looking at his last 2 races, its reasonable to say he was in the wrong race at Cheltenham imo.
Hindsight makes it a lot easier though, and during the season he did appear not to stay that well over Gold Cup type distances.
Shows how difficult some decisions can be for connections.

I don't think he would have beaten BW either Uncle, but a 2nd & 3rd in a GC knowing your horses are in the correct race is much preferrable imo otherwise you'll be thinking what might have been.

Anyway!! it's over with now.

Gold Cup next season surely?
He'll get 3m2f easy IF the ground is good (thats the key to him)

Is the 3 miles on 'good' at Aintree all that more of a stamina test than 2 miles and 5 furlongs on 'good-soft' at Cheltenham? I think First Lieutenant just came up against a top class opponent on the day in the Ryanair. Still think the Ryanair was definitely the right race for him.

Well when you consider the Trainer has said all along the horse has no pace and all he does is stay i'd say the Ryanair was the wrong choice and was completley down to the Owner.

He showed plenty of pace in last year's RSA and in the Hennessy, looked to be outstayed in both races and others were finishing better in the Lexus, he even won a Neptune. Understandably if Mouse wanted him in the Gold Cup he'd be saying things like that in an effort to convince connections. That being said, if the ground is genuinely good in next season's Gold Cup I'd give him a good chance. 16/1 looks a fair each way bet considering I doubt he'll be in the Ryanair next year

Ding ding ding, round 2. Surely he will get his head in front at down royal. Nice price i thought.

really fancy Mount Benbulben for that race at Down Patrick

Royal

Mount Benbulben ? ....fair enough. I certainly don't like to disagree too much with anyones selection, as i think everyone should stick to their guns. MB finally got it together at the tail end of last season, but this is his re-appearance. I don't think 3m is Sizing Europes game, but this may be a King George trial for him, as he ain't no GC horse. Kauto Stone won this last time, but is he still there ? I really think FL ought to take this, and i was suprised that he was 7/2 2nd fav.

does not win often enough for me, only 3 chase wins from 15 and 2 of those were in novice races, KS normally runs well fresh but is no star, SE does not really stay the trip and is 11 years old, not much else to say, Mount B won a good trial by 20+ lengths on his final start and will do for me

Given that FL seemingly had a penalty kick at the weights in his last race you would have to assume he will improve a ton for it. I think he is the most likely winner but want to see what the ground is first. If it is worse than Soft then it is wide open.

I wonder if MB is coming over for the KG,if so this could be a race too soon for him?
Hes better going right handed so Down Royal will suit and if he is fit could well win Saturday,but I have this feeling hes going to be primed for Kempton.

MB may well have won that today,but his jumping again lets him down.

As for First Lieutenant...that was not good.

Shocking.

Any news in Ireland as to where FL goes next?

I can't see him going for any other race than the Lexus.

With SDC now out of the Gold Cup, I'd imagine O'Leary would like this to head to the Gold Cup.

Still a decent price 12/1 NRNB e/w for me.He has a lot to find with Bobs Worth but Cheltenham in March will suit.Bryan Cooper on board too.