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I'd have been much more worried about him if he hadn't gone a yard, he travelled into the race like much the best horse and then seemingly flattened out, don't know what connections have said post race but if it's anything along the lines of needing the race and got tired I'd be inclined to accept it as the manner of his run suggested that could be a viable reason.
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It was a case of getting a run into a horse that doesn't want the bottomless ground on offer at the moment. If you are going to base future betting activity on that run you're in the wrong game IMO.
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Now now glossy, the horse has been out with injury, that said IF he retained his ablity he would as we all know have carried that lot!!!!
How much will you be having on him on his next NH race? |
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Sam Winner beat him fair and square and he's hardly a speedster....being aimed at the Pertemps isn't he? PC ought to come on for the run but he'll need to, seeing as he's rated nearly 2 stone superior to the winner.
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It's a funny thing, comparing races with obstacles to jump to 'bumpers for jumpers' races. Erm, you just can't. I do alright backing in them sorts of races, (now for a spot of after timing as you guys put it) i backed 4 winners yesterday, though admit not SW but i could see why he was very back able! Basically i have found that a lot of national hunt horses lose their all round speed, it is that that wins flat races. I do not mean 'speed' i mean all round speed. I do hope you no what am saying without me trying to explain it.
Basically i look at these races, i look down the lists and i look for horses that have some flat form to their names, horses that have run on the flat is a bonus but if there are none, i look for horses that may still retain some flat speed and that possible can show it in short bursts, not your out and out NH horse shows speed over long distances such as half-1 mile stretches cos there is jumps to get over. (i hope i am making sense) I backed megastar, on his flat form, i should have done the two of them but reason i didnt do SW was merely due to the above, i thought he poss had lost his ability to go flat out in a short burst, required for the flat imo. Looking back, he obv hasnt, his form when running close in that triumph hdl he showed good speed that day between the hurdles, something he had shown in the past. Peddlers and the other for me had never shown this, which is why i posted i will be laying the top 2 and backing megastar. Like i said i hope i made some kind of sense. I love these jumpers for bumpers and wish the bad weather would continue as i really think from the last 3 meetings of them i have found a key to finding the winners. (and i only backing no more than 2 or 3 in a race when prices are right) |
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sea
I like it and seems a logical way of finding winners. While not being a huge player i prefer finding comeback horses from injury and laying them. Peddler and imperial yesterday, mind that ran a great race and made me sweat as i never trade just play my own opinion. |