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cyclops
31 Dec 12 11:33
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Date Joined: 11 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 1,158 | Blogger: cyclops's blog
Drifting out to 12's for Champion Hurdle. Anyone know a reason? Just the book adjusting itself after Darlan and HF, or something more serious?
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Report resner not lesnar December 31, 2012 12:35 PM GMT
To be fair the Nicholls stable are normally pretty good if one isn't right. The news usually comes out before much happens to the market, however there isn't much money to back Zarkandar at the moment so it is a slight concern
Report Far From Trouble December 31, 2012 12:55 PM GMT
I just hope it's reaction to Hurricane Fly winning easily yesterday and punters laying because Ruby wont be riding


But I thought we already knew that he'd pick the Fly? Plain
Report EdwardWoowardWould December 31, 2012 1:40 PM GMT
Worked like an absolute drain recently from what I know but he is never the best worker anyhoo I believe

That might be the reason fwiw
Report EdwardWoowardWould December 31, 2012 1:41 PM GMT
BTW surely this horse has to be backed in running rather than ante post as the lazy bastard always looks beat

Must touch big prices imho
Report pollybournemouth December 31, 2012 3:54 PM GMT
I'm sure its the Fly and Darlan effect and nothing else
Report duffy December 31, 2012 6:15 PM GMT
watching last years CH again, it looks worse every time I see it, peoples eye gets taken by him staying on strongly but what we should be taking out of the race is how hopelessly outpaced he gets, the recent run in the international saw him again travelling worst of the 3 and whilst his race fitness against the other 2 enabled him to prevail there, he'll lose ground in the big one, can't have him, the fly and ror for me.
Report dyso6000 December 31, 2012 8:46 PM GMT
my friend knows one or two people from the henderson yard and they said nicky thinks grandouet is still there top 2miler.  interesting as the way darlan won. i think its between groundouet and the fly for me.
Report CheltenhamRoar January 1, 2013 7:10 PM GMT
Worked like an absolute drain recently from what I know but he is never the best worker anyhoo I believe

That might be the reason fwiw


Edward as clueless about his racing as he is with his football i see.

Zarkandar has never worked well at home,He's not that type,Does all his best work on the track,Check the price he won at on his debut,
Totally friendless in the market and píssed up,HTH.
Report ACStafford January 2, 2013 12:17 AM GMT
Duffy took the words out of my mouth. He'll surely be outpaced unless its bottomless.
Report Eeternaloptimist January 2, 2013 1:09 AM GMT
I wouldn't be absolutely convinced of that although there has to be some grounds for concern. As Nichols said he simply wasn't himself by the time of the champion last year and looked a totally different horse on a flat 2 miles at Wincanton first time up this year. Similarly he set a sedate pace until going down to the second last in the International as evidence by the proximity of the rags and this race essentially turned into a 3 furlong sprint and still nothing could get past him. He reminds me very much of Katchit.
Report red and white January 5, 2013 6:42 PM GMT
When right he's a tough so and so who likes to have his head in front. My pick at this stage.
Report Far From Trouble January 5, 2013 7:26 PM GMT
^ yep, tough bugger he is.

Reminds me of a certain Hardy Eustace tbh Shocked
Report duffy January 6, 2013 12:17 AM GMT
He set a sedate pace but even at that he still didn't travel as well as the other two, his fitness prevailed in the end, at wincanton he gave all that weight away but he was entitled too wasn't he, PW hasn't done much since and the rest of the field were, what, 3rd raters?,, if we're comparing I'd compare him to something like solwhit, tough and gutsy but likely to get outpaced in the big one.
Report duffy January 6, 2013 12:34 AM GMT
In fact, for any horse in most cases to win the champion hurdle they can not experience anything like being out paced and have to come from anywhere too far back in the race, you have to be able to hold a position at all costs whether you're under pressure or not, if you want to find a winner of the race that made up stacks of ground to win you have to go back a long way....so that scenario that zarkandar experienced last year is highly unlikely to succeed, he was niggled at to the 3rd last and then when they stepped it up was absolutely left for dead, he's guaranteed to lack the toe to compete when they quicken.
Report duffy January 6, 2013 12:35 AM GMT
guaranteed IMO that isBlush
Report red and white January 6, 2013 6:23 PM GMT
I think it reasonable to assume Zarkandar wasn't right last March. Obviously that assumption will be tested this year.
Report judorick January 6, 2013 6:50 PM GMT
definitely right red and white

Zarkandar was sick after the Newbury race and was still not right in March, anyone basing bets on that form needs to have a rethink imo
Report baNjackst January 6, 2013 6:55 PM GMT
Zarkandar is a tough as old boots and rates a big danger to all this year. It surprised me this year his ability to handle soft conditions, as a juvenile P.N wouldn't contemplate running the horse on soft going and now he's won a G2 on heavy. He looks a different horse. I backed him in Feb when he was fortunate to beat Darlan who crashed out at the 3rd last when cantering. Darlan was receiving 5 lb that day.
I believe that fall set Darlan back slightly last year and believe he will win this years champion hurdle but I won't want him in a battle with Zarkandar coming up to the line.
Report judorick January 6, 2013 7:30 PM GMT
just a comment about 'getting outpaced':

Some have said that Zark got outpaced in last year's CH and that may be true but an important question to ask is:-

at what stage of the race did he get outpaced? And why was that?

My answer is that he got outpaced as they jumped the 3rd last and approached the second last and the reason for that was that they went very steadily up to that point and it was an advantage to be on or near the pace.

Indeed, two former Champion Hurdle winners, who were also held up, were both equally unable to cope with the pace profile of the race and it is to their and Zarkandar's credit that they were able to close the gap. Basically Overturn was allowed to set some pretty soft fractions and Rock on Ruby who was ridden close to the pace was the beneficiary.

Of course, we could get a similar pace profile this year but with Overturn gone chasing we might get a more normal race this year with stronger early fractions meaning the hold up horses don't get so far back
Report eastayrshire January 6, 2013 9:01 PM GMT
I REALLY like Zarkandar, however imho the race would need to be run at a strong even relentless pace to see Zarkandar triumph, if there is one thing that Zarkandar has above almost all opponents is amazing battling qualities, just when the others are struggling for stamina Zarkandar just keeps going, it was mooted/touted that it would be better over further than 2m and tbh it certainly looks that way, BUT Nicholls has scotched that in the past, does that mean it is simply his best chance in CH or does he truly rate it as best over 2m?, Ruby has never been THAT enthusiastic about Zarkandar either, its a muddling picture esp as last year the stable was under a cloud with a virus just before Cheltenham, despite that Zarkandar won the Betfair hurdle in amazing style, since then Nicholls has said it wasnt 100%, it looked very slightly framed too last year, maybe some maturing has improved it even more. It looked superb when Grandouet came as if to beat it and it relentlessy out-battled Grandouet, I remember saying last year if it was close going up the hill it would win, same opinion this year.
Report The Scobster January 6, 2013 9:40 PM GMT
I think it'll be a case of letting Ruby Walsh make the decision for us. He'll have the choice between the two and OK jockeys can be wrong but if he opts for Hurricane Fly you can take that as a big negative for the Zark....and it's price will probably drift accordingly
Report HaylingBilly January 6, 2013 9:47 PM GMT
I think it is a certainty that Ruby will ride The Fly and most people who have had an AP bet on Zark will have done so with this expectation. I dont think Ruby riding The Fly will impact Zark price. Its expected and built in.
Report FOYLESWAR January 6, 2013 9:53 PM GMT
eastayshire, maybe  the reason ruby may not be so keen on zarkandar is that the horse dont  show a lot at home and first impressions are lasting impressions so to speak ,he looks hard work as he is being pushed and cajoeled along from some way out but when he is  100/% he just keeps going and can battle  and get up the hill ,great qualitys imo, there will be a good few travelling better  in the latter part of races than this fella, but whether they can get past him is another matter, and as he  is the type who  just does enough he could be a lot better than he has shown so far .
Report Brooksielad January 6, 2013 11:25 PM GMT
I think Zark will probably attempt to make all.
Report Glossy January 7, 2013 12:03 AM GMT
Presumably Jacob will keep the ride on Zark? Don't think there's much to choose between he and Derham these days.
Report duffy January 7, 2013 12:17 AM GMT
judorick 06 Jan 13 19:30 
just a comment about 'getting outpaced':

Some have said that Zark got outpaced in last year's CH and that may be true but an important question to ask is:-

at what stage of the race did he get outpaced? And why was that?

My answer is that he got outpaced as they jumped the 3rd last and approached the second last and the reason for that was that they went very steadily up to that point and it was an advantage to be on or near the pace.

Indeed, two former Champion Hurdle winners, who were also held up, were both equally unable to cope with the pace profile of the race and it is to their and Zarkandar's credit that they were able to close the gap. Basically Overturn was allowed to set some pretty soft fractions and Rock on Ruby who was ridden close to the pace was the beneficiary.


No, HF and binocular's situation is totally different to zarkandars, yes it was at the 3rd last where it all happened, but hf and binocular left zark behind along with the others up front, they then made up ground but the effort ended with them flattening out when it proved too much.....this is when zark after being left behind stayed on and closed down those in front who'd flattened out, that's two quite opposite routes through the race.

As for zark being  sick or not right, did he run like it, i don't think so, he certainly didn't look sick when he stayed on best of all did he, he ran his race but displayed the frailty that he has got...getting outpaced.

Yes he's a battler but battling alone can't keep him in there if he can't go with them, you can point to the international as a shiny example of his battling qualities but it's the fact that he had to battle so hard in that race, where he had fitness on his side (and now being healthy too!) that shows his frailties too, because for all the race you could see that he was just travelling the worse of the 3 and needed all that battling quality to get home.

People talk about a fast pace suiting him because he'll be able to finish stronger and get up the hill best, but this ignores the first part of that equation, the bit about him not going with that pace in the first place and in the champion hurdle horses do not make up serious amounts of ground after being at it to win the race because the top class horses up front don't fall into a hole, they keep going, it just doesn't happen.I think he's got a similar profile to solwhit, strong gutsy but highly likely to get out-paced on soft or good ground.
Report judorick January 7, 2013 1:21 AM GMT
I have a totally different assessment but cant be arsed to argue
Report roobuck January 7, 2013 7:03 AM GMT
Been keen on Zarkandar for this race for a while and suggested this was his year in threads for last year's Betfair. Therefore perhaps guilty of looking through rose tinted glasses.

As been documented and commented on here, I agree that the horse was not 100% last year. Lets not forget he did not reappear until the Betfair in February after a couple of setbacks so clearly PFN hadn't had a clear run with him.

After that race it was widely reported that he coughed and it was at a time that the stable was under a cloud and their record was 1 winner out of the last how ever may runners - that winner was this chap.

I listened to the CH in the car and the paddock reporter on 5Live suggested he looked 'dreadful'. This again was backed up in the papers and by Nicholls himself.

Last year he was only 5 with little hurdling experience. Considering all of this imo he ran a remarkable race at Cheltenham and I backed him for this year after that.

I agree that Ruby has never been a particular fan of the horse, describing him as 'too slow' for the CH. He does seem to get outpaced, or seem not to travel as well as others, as was advertised in the International. I admit that does raise some concerns though it also confirmed to me that nothing will finish better than him presuming its a decent gallop. Whilst some have commented that Zark was race fit over his two rivals, I don't necessarily buy that. Of course Grandouet was coming back from a year back but the fact that Henderson hasn't given him a busier campaign says he doesn't need racing to be ready. ROR also is seen to be very good 'fresh'.

There are negatives/question marks about many at the front of the market. Zarkandar is a young horse that seems to be improving and if in contention at the last will win imo. duffy you may prove to be right that he'll not be in that position at the last, but just think a year on, now healthy he will be however 'ugly' it may look.
Report buddeliea January 7, 2013 7:47 AM GMT
Roo,
Are you suggesting that ROR was at his best or near to it??

Miles away for me,looking at his previous Cheltenham races.

With Zarkander its simple for me,you either believe he was not right in March last year and ignore that,or you dont.
He looks to me that hes a horse that will get outpaced,but by how much? and as he will finish well,thats the crucial part.
All about the price on the day for me.
Report roobuck January 7, 2013 7:56 AM GMT
Perhaps he didn't - but aren't you just assuming that was down to fitness?
Report sageform January 7, 2013 10:34 AM GMT
Average improvement from 5 to 6 in the CH is about 6lb. If he was 4lb under par last year that gives him an improvement of 10 lengths.
Report Graeme83 January 7, 2013 10:41 AM GMT
"All about the price on the day for me."




Budd - you basically wrote off the horses chances, so what does the price have to do with anything ?
Report buddeliea January 7, 2013 12:13 PM GMT
No i aint mate,im undecided about him completely to be honest.
I said he will get outpaced,but that dont mean i think he cannot win,like i said it depends by how much,as he finishes well he may get away with it as others in the past have done.
If his price on the day can persuade me to take a chance,then i will.
Report buddeliea January 7, 2013 12:23 PM GMT
Whaen a horse is travelling as well as ROR was Roo,then i assume its fitness,or something amiss.
Nothing has been reported as being wrong with him,and the stable were reportedly pleased with him.
That tells me that he will be a lot better next time.
Report roobuck January 7, 2013 12:33 PM GMT
I know all of these horses are on a journey leading to March, but when is this one due to run again?

He was due to run 2 weeks earlier, clearly its just as well he didn't or he'd blown up even more. My take is that on that day, on that ground and the way the race was run he was simply 3rd best.
Report buddeliea January 7, 2013 12:36 PM GMT
Yes its possible the ground played a part,but it really looked to the eye(well mine anyway) he simply blew up.
I expect him to turn up in March ready as he was last year.
Report roobuck January 7, 2013 12:42 PM GMT
He may well do but its a completely different prep to last year though. Is he due to have a trial? Confused

If not he'll turn up in March having not raced for over 3 months and the International will have had no bearing on his fitness
Report buddeliea January 7, 2013 12:50 PM GMT
No idea when hes out next,but i will be amazed if he aint out pretty soon.
If he aint,i would start to get a tad concerned.
I'm not at this stage.
Report Fallen Angel January 7, 2013 2:37 PM GMT
Thought PN might target either the Mountbattle (Kelso) or the kingwell (Wincanton), neither of these races are until Mid February and that would give them about a month to prepare him for the CH. Maybe they might favour the kingwell as this was the route taken by celestial halo. They would have to carry a penalty but again likely a small field would turn up and the race might not be too taxing. Plenty of time yet.
Report roobuck January 7, 2013 2:57 PM GMT
For who fallen?
Report Graeme83 January 7, 2013 2:59 PM GMT
Bud - can a horse really get outpaced and still win a CH ? Surely if they have been outpaced, then that would mean they have been beat, like Overturn last year. To me it might be simple. If you think he doesn't have the pace, then you should bet in running if possible, and if he isn't up front with the pace then don't back him. I don't really have a sure opinion either, so i'm with you there. I think Grandouet would be a good bet if it wasn't for his head carriage. It will be interesting to see how he runs next time. It's quite an unclear race from a betting proposition.
Report Fallen Angel January 7, 2013 3:03 PM GMT
For Zarkandar, as prep runs for the champion. I think he will go for one of the two before cheltenham. Entries don't take place for another couple of weeks
Report roobuck January 7, 2013 3:11 PM GMT
No I actually disagree there Graeme. Zarkandar's problem could be that he gets outpaced as they initially inject more pace potentially at the top of the hill. I would concede that he has less tactical speed than others and so the jock will need to work harder to get him going as I also suspect he is a little lazy as well.

I see him being able to pull back up to 3 lengths from the final hurdle as he seems to absolutely devour the hill - any further back will be a problem.

He could well be a bet in running but for different reasons. He is likely to get much bigger as the above happens, if it does, and that might be a time to play. Alternatively you could leave it to  much later and play if within striking distance at the last.

That's if, of course, you like the horse
Report roobuck January 7, 2013 3:13 PM GMT
I thought so fallen, was actually interested in where ROR might pitch up if at all as a prep. Think Zark will go Wincanton or straight to Cheltenham.
Report Fallen Angel January 7, 2013 4:02 PM GMT
I would imagine they would pick the other one that Zarkandar doesn't turn up in which would probably be the mountbattle. I thought that Henderson could be tempted to run Darlan in one of these races, they ran Zaynar a few years back. I would assume all the big guns will play cat and mouse dodgems between now and the big day in order to not over exert.
Report Graeme83 January 7, 2013 4:06 PM GMT
I disagree Roob, although it's possible. This renewal looks quite a good one when all is considered. I can't really see any horse being outpaced, then swinging back into things and winning it. Last season he ran like that, and to win he really has to not do that. If he has improved physically and mentally, he can stay with them then use some pace going up the hill. He was still well beaten last year. The fact he finished well doesn't disguise the fact he was out of it when it mattered. It's like someone camouflaging themselves in with a tree, then appearing at the end of the cross country race when nobody is looking.
Report buddeliea January 7, 2013 5:08 PM GMT
well its been done in the Supreme,so i think it possible it could happen in the CH,as long as hes not outpaced by much which i dont think he would do.Its not ideal though i would admit.
Also its possible whoever rides him could actually race him prominently and try and dictate the pace as he did lto.
Report roobuck January 7, 2013 5:09 PM GMT
When he was outpaced in the International he didn't actually lose much ground if any - perhaps I see what you mean if that is what you are thinking. He did lose ground last year but I've already given my interpretation of last year's race.
Report GoldCupWinner January 7, 2013 5:20 PM GMT
If he didn't lose any ground then he obviously wasn't outpaced, just took more stoking to keep with the pace which can be a trait of lazy horses.
Report Far From Trouble January 7, 2013 8:52 PM GMT
Zarkandar didn't travel as strongly for as long as Rock On Ruby or Grandouet in the International does not mean that he was outpaced imo

Yes he's not your flashy, sit and travel well on the pace type who looks good on the eye, but he's certainly not slow as a few of you seem to be alluding to.

Hardy Eustace, and to a lesser extent Katchit iirc weren't the smoothest of travellers but it's fair to say they weren't slow. I think Zarkandar is in the same bracket as those two

Zarkandar needs a bit of stoking up earlier than most but you know he'll find a load for pressure. Massive, massive chance
Report roobuck January 7, 2013 9:22 PM GMT
Fft it could be that I haven't explained my thinking very well especially as he is the only horse I have backed for the CH.

I know he isn't slow but he does perhaps lack the change of gear of others and on quicker ground than they faced in the International that may be important. As you say he will always find and as long as he sits handily off a decent pace at least, I think he will overcome this.
Report johnn January 7, 2013 10:46 PM GMT
eastayrshire 06 Jan 13 21:01 
I REALLY like Zarkandar, however imho the race would need to be run at a strong even relentless pace to see Zarkandar triumph, if there is one thing that Zarkandar has above almost all opponents is amazing battling qualities, just when the others are struggling for stamina Zarkandar just keeps going, it was mooted/touted that it would be better over further than 2m and tbh it certainly looks that way, BUT Nicholls has scotched that in the past, does that mean it is simply his best chance in CH or does he truly rate it as best over 2m?, Ruby has never been THAT enthusiastic about Zarkandar either, its a muddling picture esp as last year the stable was under a cloud with a virus just before Cheltenham, despite that Zarkandar won the Betfair hurdle in amazing style, since then Nicholls has said it wasnt 100%, it looked very slightly framed too last year, maybe some maturing has improved it even more. It looked superb when Grandouet came as if to beat it and it relentlessy out-battled Grandouet, I remember saying last year if it was close going up the hill it would win, same opinion this year.

paceless yak imo
Report wellchief January 7, 2013 10:57 PM GMT
I've backed him as well, but he's only a bit of insurance for me if The Fly or Grandouet don't win.  He's a horse I'd rather have on my side than against though.

If he was a serious CH horse he was entitled to win the International being race fit and receiving weight off his main rivals.

Ruby picking Prospect Wells at Wincanton was a strange one imo.  If Ruby really thought he was Champion Hurdle winning class, you'd still expect him to beat Prospect Wells, despite the huge weight allowance, yet Ruby still chose PW?  You'd never imagine Ruby jumping off the Fly to ride Prospect Wells would you?
Report Eeternaloptimist January 8, 2013 12:02 AM GMT
And yet despite everything being in favour of his mount and against Zarkandar an inferior jockey still beat him. Jockeys are there to ride the horse. That is what some of them are good at. They don't tend to make good tipsters.
Report sageform January 8, 2013 10:00 AM GMT
There is a very big difference between being outpaced in the first mile off a very strong pace when stamina often wins the race and getting outpaced down the hill off a moderate pace which is usually fatal. Af Ferof was in the former category imo.
Report wellchief January 8, 2013 4:41 PM GMT
Eeternal, I'm not saying Ruby tipped Prospect Wells or anything like that.  I'm simply saying that I don't think Ruby would even give it a moments thought whether to ride the Fly or Prospect, no matter how much weight was being given away.

I might be reading too much into it, but it says to me that if Ruby thought he had a better chance of winning on Prospect Wells, it raises questions in my mind as to whether Ruby thinks that Zarkandar is Champion Hurdle winning class.

It had nothing to do with Jacob building a bond with Zark either, because Ruby said it was his choice on the day and Jacob would take the other.
Report roobuck January 8, 2013 4:49 PM GMT
He might not have wellchief but I think he had some grudging respect after the International. He had been quoted as saying he thought him too slow for CH

In exactly the same way with Kauto and BB, he'd never get of HF even in a handicap - loyalty as much as anything to the horse. I guess he had the chance to ride ROR last year as well
Report duffy January 8, 2013 5:59 PM GMT
How many champion hurdles have been run at a frantic pace with horses getting outpaced only for the pace to collapse late on and the stronger stayers come from behind to go on by...not many, the horses on or near the pace and in any case those that can hold their position and can stay tend to prevail in this race ....travel at fast pace and stay well is what's needed, if they go hard earlier, zark will be outpaced earlier imo, they went slow last year before the 3rd last it was mentioned earlier, but even before then zark was being kept at it to hold his position I think.

I was wondering if the way he stayed on last year may have looked slightly more flattering than it was because the effort those few others made before they flattened out obviously accentuates his finishing run as they stopped, looking at brampour who was hard at it miles before zark but is the only other guage from back there who couldn't go with the others, was about 2.5 lengths behind zark turning in and was eventually beat just under 5 lengths so on the face of it would you be hoping to see a bigger gap between those two? don't know there to be honest, perhaps yes.Confused
Report roobuck January 8, 2013 6:22 PM GMT
He'll be able to go a solid pace from the outset and hold a position - the more the race is like this the better. The danger would be off a slower pace if he is not part of it.

@duffy you refer back to last year and I for one expect a considerable step up on that as explained earlier. If you believe he was 100% then clearly you will see it differently.
Report Graeme83 January 9, 2013 1:45 PM GMT
Quite often these Nicholls excuses remain unfounded. He couldn't have had a great deal wrong with him if he finished as well as he did. Was it some mysterious infection that effects horses from the 12-14f marker, then dissapears suddenly ? On the finish, probably everyone has failed to mention that he didn't have to jump the last, which made it easier for him to gain ground.
Report robbo69 January 10, 2013 12:25 PM GMT
Think he will get out paced but he always does, one things for sure he will be finishing best of all, he wins for me if he's within 8-10 lehgths turning in... But thats the big if will he be??
Report Brooksielad January 10, 2013 12:31 PM GMT
I think they could change tactics and make the running try and steal a few lengths at the start, you know he will stay, so for me I'd ask questions and say catch me if you can cus I'm not stopping.
Report duffy January 10, 2013 12:35 PM GMT
robbo, So if he's in the same position as he was in last year turning in, he'll winConfusedConfused
Report duffy January 10, 2013 12:36 PM GMT
It'll be the first time in absolute donkeys years that that has been done in this particular race.!
Report roobuck January 10, 2013 12:37 PM GMT
Frankly as long as he wins don't care how he does it!

Been prominent last two runs and I think he'll want to ensure as much as possible a decent, and even pace so I don't see him too far back
Report robbo69 January 10, 2013 12:51 PM GMT
Trip to spec savers for one of us duffy if he was within 8 lengths turning in last year.....
But yes last year the horse was bad with the cough going through the stable and as usual PN said he was on of the worse hit in the yard. Different horse this year....
Report duffy January 10, 2013 12:57 PM GMT
He may have been 12 lengths behindMischief, anyways It'll be a monumental effort for him if what we see usually from him is the way of it again....incidentally I'm over 340 points in the TTF with him in as he was my International horse and thought with his advantage of race fitness would see him home....if I'm to get anywhere near the leaderboard I'm going to need him to win the bloody thingCry....I've also got HF for that mind you.Grin
Report robbo69 January 10, 2013 4:06 PM GMT
As i said different horse this year, he came from a similar position in a good triumph the year before. He wont let your TTF down.
Report sageform January 10, 2013 4:49 PM GMT
I also have him in my TTF but also have Cinders and Ashes so need them 1-2.
Report buddeliea January 10, 2013 5:37 PM GMT
Best hope he aint 8-10 lengths behind ROR,Bino or HF,cos he wont be catching them that far behind.
Report Regular Fries January 10, 2013 5:51 PM GMT
I think he'll be ridden far more prominently this year.

There, I said it.
Report buddeliea January 10, 2013 5:56 PM GMT
Yeh,i think so too,and really he has to be a lot closer than last year to have any chance.
Report Regular Fries January 10, 2013 5:58 PM GMT
IF he can get his nose in front coming to the last I can see him being dificult to pass.
Report duffy January 10, 2013 6:00 PM GMT
It's all very well being ridden more prominently but that depends totally on whether the horse can hold his position handy...which he doesn't advertise he can do....all these horses that get tapped for toe would all love to be ridden more handily,if they go a right good pace wherever he is in the field he will get outpaced IMO.
Report buddeliea January 10, 2013 6:10 PM GMT
Absolutely Duffy,thats why i cant make my mind up about him.
I dont think hes value right now,put it that way.
I mean Even if they do try and race him more prominetly,he could get shuffled back when the pace quickens.
That would not be good for his chances.
Report roobuck January 10, 2013 6:17 PM GMT
Neither ROR or Grandouet could do it in the International could they though and that was funereal - he'll also be better off a quicker pace.

Duffy continues to use last year's race as an example - that's fair enough if you think he was 100%, I don't.
Report robbo69 January 10, 2013 6:22 PM GMT
Agree Roo

This is a totally different horse this year. Nicholls still needs a 'proper' CH winner not one from a Yard up the road too....

That comment should get some reaction!!!
Report duffy January 10, 2013 6:30 PM GMT
roo
I'll use the international as an example, through the race,zark did not travel as well as the other two, fehily is sat on his horse, and it travels without him having to move his arms at all really, ruby is always just keeping zark at it, IMO if ror did not blow up he would have ran away from him turning in, zark had everything in his favour that day....and he needed to, IMO.

As for last year, if I was promoting a sick horse I would kind of want the horse to have run an all out shocker because you can't have him coming home the way he did without the sick argument falling apart....he isn't that good is he, and that's before we even contemplate the fact he won perhaps the most competitive handicap of the whole year whilst sick
Report baNjackst January 10, 2013 6:34 PM GMT
I don't believe for a minute that Zark is any better or any worse than last year, ROR clearly wasn't 100% the last day and Grandouet was coming back from injury. Both were giving Zark 4lb and once close enough you'd expect zark to out battle the two. Would you put a lot a money on him confirming form with Grandouet on level terms? And would you believe Grandouet would be good enough to win Champion hurdle? I'd have hendersons every day over nichols but I've backed Darlan. So onless there a match bet on day I won't be playing either. Shrewd punters observed Zark running on stoutly in last years renewal and commented that he was a future stayers hurdle winner. Thats my view and with Big Bucks out of picture Mr. Nicholas is making one big mistake. He simply not good enough to win a chapion.
Report buddeliea January 10, 2013 6:39 PM GMT
No they couldn't Roo,but they will be a lot fitter in March i should think.
Certainly the ROR of last March would quicken off a fair pace,and if so thats wnen Zarkander backers will know how different he is this year.
I would be confident that Zarkander is a lot stronger now hes of CHurdle age,but not so confident hes good enough to win,and certainly not confident enough to back him at his current price.
Report roobuck January 10, 2013 6:43 PM GMT
Duffy I think we could carry on going round the houses and never get even close to agreeing Grin

The whole point about the International was it was a very slow pace that would not suit a 'slow' horse. So what if he wasn't travelling as easily, the 'quicker' horses couldn't go past. If they cannot go past off a slow pace, then not going to happen off a stronger pace when stamina is at a premium. People seem so convinced that ROR 'blew up' - he has a history of being best fresh and has had long gaps between races.

Lets suppose he was 100% last year - not a bad effort for a very inexperienced 5yo imo. Normal progression etc
Report buddeliea January 10, 2013 6:47 PM GMT
Well it ROR did not blow up,what happened?
Report duffy January 10, 2013 6:50 PM GMT
when you stop as quyickly as he did there are two possibles....he either blew up or he bled....and we know he never bled.!
Report robbo69 January 10, 2013 6:55 PM GMT
Maybe he got outbattled by a race fit horse. Maybe outstayed on bad ground or just maybe he is not as good as people think... winning last years champion was maybe not that great a performance, he beat overturn Is that good enough to win any of the last 20 CH. Ruby gave HF to much to do as did AP on binocular and Zar was 'maybe' at less than 100%
Report roobuck January 10, 2013 6:57 PM GMT
As an aside plan A for ROR is the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown of if very soft will go to Kingwell
Report buddeliea January 10, 2013 6:58 PM GMT
Well if you watch every race ROR has been in,you will see a lot different horse to that we saw lto.

You really think that is as good as ROR is??
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report buddeliea January 10, 2013 7:01 PM GMT
Course you dont,so he must have got outbattled,or outstayed,even though he stopped as if he got shot!!

Blew up,its plain to see.
Report robbo69 January 10, 2013 7:04 PM GMT
I dont think hes a superstar thats all, wasn't i n the top 3 or 4 in betting last year so was perhaps a shock winner
Report buddeliea January 10, 2013 7:09 PM GMT
Hardy was a shock winner,he won it the following year.

Anyway,i cant find any fault in ROR's performance last year,and a repeat will have him very close this year imo.
Report duffy January 10, 2013 7:10 PM GMT
robbo,
Don't know if you are named after him but your namesake was one of my fav. staying chasers from a few years back, and I know for a fact that he'd have loved to have been able to race handy.Love
Report robbo69 January 10, 2013 7:15 PM GMT
Was named after the 1972 Derby winner actually. Just a little cross ive had to carry though life. Are you running out of reasoned arguements it will be back to nursing in casualty if thats all you got lol....
Report duffy January 10, 2013 7:19 PM GMT
I was attempting a little down memory lane interlude, I won't bother next timeSad
Report roobuck January 10, 2013 7:22 PM GMT
or ROR does actually need a strong pace to finish off?

I would put forward an argument, simply for discussion so don't over react, that his most impressive performance was actually in the Fielden last year....1st time out!
Report robbo69 January 10, 2013 7:24 PM GMT
And i thought you were challenging me at the wity one lines rather than just racing !!!
Good point on Hardy by the way what a horse, backed him on all 3 of his festival wins arh happy days...
Report duffy January 10, 2013 7:31 PM GMT
That was buddGrin.
Report robbo69 January 10, 2013 7:36 PM GMT
will have to look back at ROR in that race, dont recall it. Would love to see him jump a fence one day but cant see it now
Report Eeternaloptimist January 10, 2013 7:45 PM GMT
In the build up to the Bula they commented on each horse and the race reader (I think it may have been Cunningham) said that he looked big enough. He didn't elaborate but I took that to mean that he thought he would strip fitter for the run. He certainly looked as if he ran that way to me.

I think you could make a case for any of the three based on that race and based on how he had travelled at Wincanton I concluded that Zarkandar was simply a better horse than last year. I don't really care why, sometimes you just have to accept what your eyes tell you and I think that was a strong race with three very good horses.
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