Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novice Hurdle - My tent or yours
Supreme Novice Hurdle - My tent or yours
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Replies: 109
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Pretty sure Geraghty is stable jock for Hendo and rides River Maigue
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Do you think BG will definitely ride Jezki ? Wont he be on River Maigue and Robbie Power on Jezki ? Adds to the drama of the opening race. Either way I am on MTOY at 14's and hoping he gets my Festival off to a flying start for once !
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Jezki at 40-1 and MTOY at 14-1, I'll take that. Common sense prevails
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sj - enjoy.........
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Ladbrokes 6/4 straight away, funny that.. seeing as Ladbrokes had been biggest since day one. looool
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Lads were also the first to put him up for the CH, which i thought was mildly amusing.
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HaylingBilly 18 Feb 13 16:08 Joined: 06 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 152 | Blogger: HaylingBilly's blog
sj - enjoy......... You too mate. Fingers crossed they line up, be nice. My RSA ante post couldnt of gone any worse Fingal and Ambion Wood  |
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MTOY 10/1 + top up at 20/1 and Jezki at 8/1 will do for me for now lol and are by far the best ive got, also have dodging bullets at 14s for that race.
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He's gone way too short so layed off my stake @ 2.9 for a free bet now
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are you all convinced they won't switch to the Champion? I think it's 100 that they do but I've heard that it's being discussed in an attempt to win both races
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Money is already down on Bino.
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Still being backed on here for the CH. Last matched at 30.
Mmmmm... |
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won't jump well enough to win the supreme nevermind the CH
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Jumped well enough amongst horses in a big field lto. If you mean he might lose concentration being so far clear at the last I concede that could be a problem
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yes jumpred well enough to hose up off 149 and earn a rating of 162, how is his jumping an issue?
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he won a very average betfair hurdle on soft ground - miles apart from what he'll face in the supreme,,,watch his jumping up the newbury straight and for me it's enough evidence that under faster conditions (both going and pace) he won't cope..and for all those who are stuck on ratings, how did he get beat by chatterbox??
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could yet be very soft going if all the rain falls on the course that is in the range forecast
you're just making it up, average race? who are you to say what he will and won't cope with? there is nothing certain at all, he might fecking well love it! stop spouting opinion as if it is fact got beat by chatterbox coz they cheated like phuck! |
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not that Mytent can't win, but his price is definitely overbet because he was visually so impressive LTO. Bridle monsters often get over rated.
Got to lay the 2/1 in such a hot renewal. As noted above - he's not even unbeaten... and what the form of the b/f hurdle represents remains to be seen... |
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a much more measured approach than the definitive statements above from gordon
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I would suggest his defeat of a proven stayer at Ascot who is now one of the favs for the Neptune has shown he finds off the bridle. Watch that race, it shows a the required fight to my eyes.
Would I back it at 2/1 and below - no |
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yes backing at a price and hold a decent finite probability of victory are not the same
would we back it at say 4/1? probably |
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cotton mill would of gave Simonsig a race in the Neptune, and he got trounced by mtoy and if you think that Newbury form with chatterbox is genuine shouldn't Chatterbox being going off odds on in the Supreme loool. People keep harping on about this years Supreme being a strong field... how could you possible know that until next season. Personally think Jezki's form is over hyped, he couldn't even beat Glam Gerry and then has beat Champagne Fever who quite clearly isn't a super star, then he beat a moderate bunch latest. Then you have Un atout that is blatently a chaser. Next is Dodging Bullets (looooool a second season novice) Then we have Melodic Rendezvous who was beat quite easily by CF last year, but in saying that looks to have improved and is probably the only one that could perhaps give the tent half a race.
Don't judge the supreme until they're mixing it with this years seniors imo. |
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brooksie what a ridiculous statement...
of course people are going to judge it because going into the race so many novices are highly rated and the renewal looks deep with quality... we can judge next seasons racing when that time comes around but as it stands this is a very hot looking supreme brimmed with exciting novices rated in the 150's and a favourite rated 163... very easy to criticize other horses the way you have in a winter when judging form is harder than ever with the weather...you have certainly destroyed a lot of horses with no real back up just they aren't good enough... the way you talk my tent or yours should be odds on because you certainly don't respect any of the other runners this years supreme is no different than any other lots of unexposed horses lining up except this year looks a high class renewal on paper to me |
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Watch Un Atout jump his hurdles and you might change your mind about him. But I agree that he will be some chaser in time.
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how on earth can you judge novices running against each other, for all we know these grade 1 races could have a bunch of 170 rated horses or 130. The only way to rate a horse is through more senior horses that have already got lines of form, thats why mtoy has a rating in the 160's how can jezki be given a rating in the 150's when he hasn't ran against a proven 150 horse...
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I'm not saying MTOY won't win or that he is as good as his rating of 163, but I do suspect that the horses that ran behind him the last day didn't run near their marks. If MTOY is what people are saying Taquin du seuil should be odds on to win the neptune.
Do jezki Grade 1 wins stack up, remains to be seen..... Roll on Tuesday and may every person and horse get there safely. |
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Brooksielad is right in that it is impossible to know beforehand the quality of this race although it does have the makings of the race of the festival from all the preliminaries - I cannot have the favourite at its current price with so many others with latent potential against it - must be a strong lay bet
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are you saying we cannot rate horses until they have run against seasoned racers??
obviously this suits your bet brooksie... as it happens i myself handicapped mtoy 163 after his run as the right horses surrounded him but it doesn't take away from the way the race was run and how the horse would handle better ground off of fast fractions...all imponderables as it happens i have melodic rendevous a lot lower than the rpr he has achieved but i maybe wrong and am happy to be wrong if i can understand why... jezki is a horse i like but personally have him running his best early season and whether he can peak again i have my doubts...he is rated 150 on the back of a grade 1 victory you cannot say un atout cannot win as he hasn't been off the bridle yet...what you can say about him is he has no collateral form and is 8-1 god only knows what he could do you then laugh off dodging bullets when he has run against grade 1 older horses...loool as if your smart... and back it up with a second season novice...now that is funny considering he was second to grumeti first time then 4th in the triumph running choke out in lane 8 the whole way before stumbling at aintree...this year he has finished third in a christmas hurdle on ground he doesn't like champagne fever may not be a superstar but he is honest and genuine and a proper graded horse nothing worse than having to listen to someone ramping there own selection and putting others down because it suits there bet...i will continue to rate horses novices or not...a bunch of 170 horses unheard of brooksie |
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The fav and dodging bullets set an abnormally high standard for the rest to aim at. At current prices the value probably lies with dodging bullets.
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If MTOY is rated 163 should the stewards at Newbury on 29th December not looked into the riding. He probably doesn't need such a rating to win supreme but there is 1/2 million reasons to believe Jezki will reach such a rating + at some stage or JP will surely be sacking someone. Now the e/way steal of Cheltenham.
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