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Brooksielad
29 Dec 12 17:15
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Jan 08
| Topic/replies: 1,560 | Blogger: Brooksielad's blog
Get stuck into the 20s on offer imo.
Pause Switch to Standard View Supreme Novice Hurdle - My tent or yours
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Report Brooksielad December 30, 2012 9:39 PM GMT
"One went in the ground and one didn't," said Henderson.

"I still think My Tent Or Yours is a very good horse. I felt Chatterbox was not as mature and he'll only be having a quiet season."
Report gutfeeling December 30, 2012 11:15 PM GMT
^ Well that's cleared that up then,Glad Henderson has put us straight,Good on ya Nicky..
Report harry callaghan December 31, 2012 2:47 AM GMT
interesting maybe reading the horse wrong with so many so keen...if he is to win in graded company being a bridle ponse maybe aintree will be his bag
Report Masterminded December 31, 2012 11:29 AM GMT
I think you could possibly say that about him in his bumper days Harry but he looks a different animal this season. He showed more than enough guts after pulling the whole way around Ascot to beat a very good rival. As I mentioned earlier he wasn't ever winning at Newbury unless Chatterbox fell or wasn't in contention. The money was down on the so called 2nd string.
Report BigAdz December 31, 2012 5:22 PM GMT
One thing in his favour, JP Mac doesnt worry about what numbers and letters are after his horses names. He isnt worried about a string of 1's and protecting his horses from possible defeat. Just get them match fit for the big day is all he cares about.
Report sj December 31, 2012 5:25 PM GMT
I'll accept that you shouldnt lose faith after trying to go through that ground, the horse clearly has a engiene but in his win over hurdles his jumping was pretty woeful
Report Iloveliamslips December 31, 2012 5:59 PM GMT
Arcalis got stuffed in the same race before hosing up in the supreme. Can safely say the ground was to blame and the funerial pace. That said, i dont see him winning a supreme.
Report R Carver January 4, 2013 8:14 PM GMT
I agree with both assertions Liamslips.
Report Brooksielad January 4, 2013 9:41 PM GMT
20's with PP have now gone, Ladbrokes to cave next. Might have to top up again :)
Report roobuck January 4, 2013 10:02 PM GMT
I already have at 20s before he was gambled last time - think I may have to join you.

Also like Court Minstrel - sort of hoping he falls short tomorrow.
Report Brooksielad January 4, 2013 10:17 PM GMT
iv back court minstrel tomorrow, think his form is fairly solid, although the Cheltenham race was a little muddling.
Report roobuck January 4, 2013 10:37 PM GMT
Don't like him tomorrow. Not sure about either the soft ground or the distance tbh.
Report R Carver January 5, 2013 12:25 AM GMT
Not sure about the distance for Court?
Report roobuck January 5, 2013 12:29 AM GMT
Personally think he'll be best suited by a strongly run 2M
Report R Carver January 5, 2013 9:13 AM GMT
Think a strongly run race would suit an its not certain he will get that today but I am not sure the extra 110 yards will matter Grin
Report roobuck January 5, 2013 9:31 AM GMT
Today's race is 2  1/2 miles Confused
Report R Carver January 5, 2013 11:27 AM GMT
Check again.... (oddly, some people were saying the same thing last yr about the Winter Novices Hurdle being a 2m novice, and questioning how Simonsig could have been outstayed over 2...)
Report roobuck January 5, 2013 11:37 AM GMT
How embarrassing  Blush. Don't know why but was convinced that Tolworth was 2.5 and why wanted CM to run well and not win.

I am pleased you pointed it out, despite making me look the fool I am, reassured me about Supreme.

Good luck if you are playing him today, I may well do so now though concerns about ground and pace.
Report R Carver January 5, 2013 12:19 PM GMT
Don't be silly Roo, 99% of my posts are wrong, so just 1 is actually good going!!

GL to you today too Roo - I do think CM is a very classy horse but think this is a deep renewal and worry about the lack of pace. GL!
Report Brooksielad January 8, 2013 7:31 PM GMT
jocked up for friday at Huntingdon.
Report Brooksielad January 9, 2013 2:53 PM GMT
My Tent Or Yours has been entered for the grade 3 betfair handicap hurdle at Newbury on Feb the 9th. Ladbrokes have today cut from 20s in 14s. I presume the mark of 140 given is a provisional mark at the moment? I was under the impression a horse had to run 3 races over hurdles in order to obtain a mark? Anyone shed any light?

If get me out of here runs off 158, that would give my tent or yours a nice racing weight. Glad to see they've now mapped his progression to the Supreme out now.
Report baNjackst January 9, 2013 2:59 PM GMT
They can be given a handicap mark if they win a race as far as I know Brook. Otherwise its 3 runs.
Report Brooksielad January 9, 2013 3:16 PM GMT
cheers banjackst
Report Alvarado January 9, 2013 3:36 PM GMT
a horse can be given a h,cap mark after 2 runs now if the horse in question has been placed on both runs example my tent -12 now been given 140 which me personally i think is not entiely chucked in
Report roobuck January 9, 2013 3:49 PM GMT
No weights have been issue for Betfair yet. If he runs on Friday don't expect him to win half the track
Report Brooksielad January 11, 2013 1:58 PM GMT
Won well enough today he just tanks to the front halfway through as if to say come on lets get this over with lol. I know he's beaten nothing today but you just have to be taken with him.
Report R Carver January 11, 2013 2:25 PM GMT
I was Brooksie. His form is terric. I still cannot have him, but he has bags of ability.
Report Graeme83 January 11, 2013 2:37 PM GMT
I wouldn't lay him.
Report Masterminded January 11, 2013 2:40 PM GMT
Machine. Needed 3 runs to qualify for Betfair.
Report tyronesam January 11, 2013 2:49 PM GMT
better ground, better pace..........SUPREME WINNER
Report baNjackst January 11, 2013 2:57 PM GMT
Is JP going to have 3 runners in the supreme, MTOY last 2 runs were in class 4 races while the other 2 ( Jezki + Waaheb )were first and second in G1. Although MTOY beat a horse that's subsequently gone on to win a G2 + G1 Taquin Du Seuil was giving MTOY 5 pound and was running over 2 mile which was inadequate for him. The jury is still out for me on this one and I couldn't see even JP splashing out 1/2 million on another 2 mile novice if he thought he had a real good one. ON good ground MTOY is very useful and will make a nice chaser while I imagine the other 2's game will remain over hurdles.
Report BJG January 11, 2013 3:04 PM GMT
MTOY, Jezki, Snake Eyes, Ned Buntline, Waaheb


JP potentially has a bit of a hand here Shocked
Report baNjackst January 11, 2013 3:25 PM GMT
Fairly sure Ned won't be running, and now beginning to wonder is the County Hurdle on cards for MTOY. He could be well handicapped having only contested  class 4 races on his last two starts.
Report BJG January 11, 2013 3:50 PM GMT

baNjackst     11 Jan 13 15:25 
Fairly sure Ned won't be running, and now beginning to wonder is the County Hurdle on cards for MTOY. He could be well handicapped having only contested  class 4 races on his last two starts.


Rated 140 b4 today - and anythin could happen after today, would nt surprise me if he was left alone or if he went up 8!

If he goes well in the betfair hurdle next month as seems the likely target he will b hcapped out of the county imo
Report buddeliea January 11, 2013 5:42 PM GMT
Think words like Machine and Supreme Winner are a tad premature!!

Was a good performance today,but really had to be in that company.
Report Brooksielad January 11, 2013 5:47 PM GMT
county hurdle...?
Report Masterminded January 11, 2013 6:54 PM GMT
Laugh County Hurdle
Report bluebirdfan January 11, 2013 8:23 PM GMT
Snake Eyes got any more entries yet?
Report Glossy January 12, 2013 1:45 AM GMT
No chance will Snake Eyes be running in the Supreme.
Report Brooksielad February 9, 2013 3:48 PM GMT
Different gravy
Report harry callaghan February 9, 2013 3:56 PM GMT
well been fooled by this horse definitely looks the real deal now...

wonder if he will run him in the champ hurdle has to be considered surely after that demolition
Report Ming_the_Merciless February 9, 2013 3:58 PM GMT
steering job for the Supreme on that evidence... he had a decent weight there and could have won by 10l.
Report jasey February 9, 2013 3:59 PM GMT
That was impressive,bolted up
Report Brooksielad February 9, 2013 4:02 PM GMT
I hope they don't go champion hurdle this year im sitting on 100/1 supreme/champion hurdle double.
Report Graeme83 February 9, 2013 4:04 PM GMT
AP said Supreme afterwards. I think the bookies offering the CH price wanted the free advertisement.
Report blarney February 9, 2013 4:05 PM GMT
Wouldn't be getting too carried away with that performance. Certainly won well but will have to battle at Cheltenham and we will see what he is made of when he comes off the bridle.
Report Alvarado February 9, 2013 4:30 PM GMT
thats if he needs to come off the bridle
Report Ming_the_Merciless February 9, 2013 4:30 PM GMT
I would agree with you normally blarney as I am very wary of bridle monkeys too - if he had been beating novices or was carrying 10st 2 in that race today I would have been right with you... but he could have carried 12.5 there. He beat some good ones - tough old Petit Robin in 5th stamps the form as genuine IMO.

Best Novice performance of the season.
Report sl72 February 9, 2013 4:38 PM GMT
"Think words like Machine and Supreme Winner are a tad premature!!

Was a good performance today,but really had to be in that company."

What else is it then? Its just hacked up off 149 in a race where a faster pace and better ground is what it needs.

Its just run to 160+ he's going to into the Supreme with the highest rating ever.
Report roobuck February 9, 2013 5:39 PM GMT
Look at the date of that post - after his win at Huntingdon not today
Report nostaw_01 February 9, 2013 5:48 PM GMT
Very well done to those on at 20's. What a performance that was! Wonder if Paddy Power will try and take him on on Day one.
Report ACStafford February 10, 2013 12:54 AM GMT
That was stunning. I usually avoid the hotpot in the Supreme, but that is the best performance I've ever seen from a novice hurdler pre-Cheltenham. Surely all he has to do is repeat the form and he'll run away with the Supreme.
Report buddeliea February 10, 2013 10:19 AM GMT
Thanks Roo,saved me replying.

As for yesterday,very impressive and certainly a worthy fav.
We do have some good ones this year though,2 of which run today.
Its not cut and dried chaps.
Report Brooksielad February 10, 2013 10:24 AM GMT
What mark do you think he'll get for that? 160 perhaps...
Report festivalfanatic February 10, 2013 11:22 AM GMT
Hard to ignore his credentials based on what we have seen. Will be a big competitive field though and it can be a rough race. I probably won't play now. Most likely winner but the race is not one to back at his currrent odds for me. Good luck though if you are on at a fancy price!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 10, 2013 12:44 PM GMT
On at 10/1 and a top up at 20/1 for the supreme and i for one cannot wait until 12th March although i do fear a couple of the others and so have backed accordingly, each way of course Wink
Report Brooksielad February 11, 2013 1:18 PM GMT
timeform rating 168p :0
Report CTAU February 11, 2013 1:48 PM GMT
A quick question regarding AP betting. I placed a double on MTOY winning both the betfair hurdle and the supreme. The bet has been accepted online however im hearing for various people that bets like this dont usually exist because the odds are interrelated? Any knowledge much appreciated
Report Brooksielad February 11, 2013 2:09 PM GMT
Yes it would be a a related bet, but your argument could well be why is there online site allowing you to place the same selection in a double. In a shop it would be the cashier's job to advise you of that.
Report Brooksielad February 11, 2013 2:12 PM GMT
I think the special price on Saturday being offered was 20/1.
Report roobuck February 11, 2013 2:15 PM GMT
I'm sure there'll be something in their ts and cs to prevent a payout.

Don't alert the bookie involved just in case. Speak to a rival and seek clarification what they'd do. If it wins and they don't pay out, go for it anyway. Good luck.
Report CTAU February 11, 2013 2:16 PM GMT
Thanks, yes this is what is confusing as i placed the double on at 50/1 and was wondering why they then later offered a special market at 20/1. Can hills void the bet as a double and pay out as two singles? Or now they've accepted it is it on?

Just read latest reply, will go read more terms and conditions as well

Again thanks
Report Regular Fries February 11, 2013 2:28 PM GMT
It depends on the bookie from my experience. I've done these before and had the bet accepted via some sites and not accepted via others and I would say that the software allows the bookie to not allow the bet if they don't want to, so the fact you got on I'd say that was fine. A friend of mine won a boatload backing Zarkandar in the adonis and triumph a few years ago. Think that was with Sky Bet.

My Tent Or Yours fact: Baracouda (176, in Foot and Mouth season) is the only novice to have posted a higher rating before March.
Report Regular Fries February 11, 2013 2:29 PM GMT
Btw. My mate cashed out as quick as he possible could when it copped Laugh
Report roobuck February 11, 2013 3:28 PM GMT
And I bet he was restricted afterwards! Laugh
Report nob nob February 11, 2013 5:21 PM GMT
it is a related bet for sure, your best hope is they dont spot it.  If they do they will prob settle as a double using the price you took for the bf hurdle & the new supreme price that was offered immidiately after the bf hurdle win.  This would be fair. All bookies have a rule to cover related bets
Report Brooksielad February 18, 2013 3:36 PM GMT
Nicky Henderson has stated My Tent Or Yours will run in the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival next month.

There had been speculation the talented six-year-old could be supplemented for the Stan James Champion Hurdle following his effortless victory in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, but connections have decided to run him in the Supreme on March 12.

"He's very good and he goes for the Supreme. I have been speaking to AP (Tony McCoy), Frank Berry (racing manager) and JP McManus (owner) and that is the plan, I believe," said Henderson.
Report alleged22 February 18, 2013 3:37 PM GMT
i wonder what it will cost ladbrokes eh brooksielad?  Wink
Report Deplasterer February 18, 2013 3:57 PM GMT
Hope AP & MTOY enjoy looking at the backside of BG and Jezki.
Report roobuck February 18, 2013 4:01 PM GMT
BG won't be riding Jezki
Report CVByrne February 18, 2013 4:02 PM GMT
Pretty sure Geraghty is stable jock for Hendo and rides River Maigue
Report HaylingBilly February 18, 2013 4:05 PM GMT
Do you think BG will definitely ride Jezki ? Wont he be on River Maigue and Robbie Power on Jezki ?  Adds to the drama of the opening race. Either way I am on MTOY at 14's and hoping he gets my Festival off to a flying start for once !Laugh
Report sj February 18, 2013 4:07 PM GMT
Jezki at 40-1 and MTOY at 14-1, I'll take that. Common sense prevails
Report HaylingBilly February 18, 2013 4:08 PM GMT
sj - enjoy.........
Report Brooksielad February 18, 2013 4:39 PM GMT
Ladbrokes 6/4 straight away, funny that.. seeing as Ladbrokes had been biggest since day one. looool
Report Graeme83 February 18, 2013 4:42 PM GMT
Lads were also the first to put him up for the CH, which i thought was mildly amusing.
Report sj February 18, 2013 5:06 PM GMT
HaylingBilly 18 Feb 13 16:08 Joined: 06 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 152 | Blogger: HaylingBilly's blog
sj - enjoy.........

You too mate. Fingers crossed they line up, be nice. My RSA ante post couldnt of gone any worse Fingal and Ambion Wood Crazy
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 19, 2013 11:14 PM GMT
MTOY 10/1 + top up at 20/1 and Jezki at 8/1 will do for me for now lol and are by far the best ive got, also have dodging bullets at 14s for that race.
Report CVByrne February 19, 2013 11:45 PM GMT
He's gone way too short so layed off my stake @ 2.9 for a free bet now
Report judorick February 25, 2013 7:39 PM GMT
are you all convinced they won't switch to the Champion? I think it's 100 that they do but I've heard that it's being discussed in an attempt to win both races
Report Brooksielad February 25, 2013 7:49 PM GMT
Money is already down on Bino.
Report Blackwater March 4, 2013 6:13 PM GMT
Still being backed on here for the CH. Last matched at 30.

Mmmmm...
Report Gordon63 March 5, 2013 4:48 PM GMT
won't jump well enough to win the supreme nevermind the CH
Report roobuck March 5, 2013 4:51 PM GMT
Jumped well enough amongst horses in a big field lto. If you mean he might lose concentration being so far clear at the last I concede that could be a problem GrinMischief
Report judorick March 5, 2013 4:52 PM GMT
yes jumpred well enough to hose up off 149 and earn a rating of 162, how is his jumping an issue?
Report Gordon63 March 5, 2013 4:59 PM GMT
he won a very average betfair hurdle on soft ground - miles apart from what he'll face in the supreme,,,watch his jumping up the newbury straight and for me it's enough evidence that under faster conditions (both going and pace) he won't cope..and for all those who are stuck on ratings, how did he get beat by chatterbox??
Report judorick March 5, 2013 5:03 PM GMT
could yet be very soft going if all the rain falls on the course that is in the range forecast

you're just making it up, average race? who are you to say what he will and won't cope with? there is nothing certain at all, he might fecking well love it! stop spouting opinion as if it is fact

got beat by chatterbox coz they cheated like phuck!
Report bigpoppapump March 5, 2013 5:14 PM GMT
not that Mytent can't win, but his price is definitely overbet because he was visually so impressive LTO.  Bridle monsters often get over rated. 

Got to lay the 2/1 in such a hot renewal.  As noted above - he's not even unbeaten... and what the form of the b/f hurdle represents remains to be seen...
Report judorick March 5, 2013 5:31 PM GMT
a much more measured approach than the definitive statements above from gordon
Report roobuck March 5, 2013 5:40 PM GMT
I would suggest his defeat of a proven stayer at Ascot who is now one of the favs for the Neptune has shown he finds off the bridle. Watch that race, it shows a the required fight to my eyes.

Would I back it at 2/1 and below - no
Report judorick March 5, 2013 5:43 PM GMT
yes backing at a price and hold a decent finite probability of victory are not the same

would we back it at say 4/1? probably
Report Brooksielad March 5, 2013 5:43 PM GMT
cotton mill would of gave Simonsig a race in the Neptune, and he got trounced by mtoy and if you think that Newbury form with chatterbox is genuine shouldn't Chatterbox being going off odds on in the Supreme loool. People keep harping on about this years Supreme being a strong field... how could you possible know that until next season. Personally think Jezki's form is over hyped, he couldn't even beat Glam Gerry and then has beat Champagne Fever who quite clearly isn't a super star, then he beat a moderate bunch latest. Then you have Un atout that is blatently a chaser. Next is Dodging Bullets (looooool a second season novice) Then we have Melodic Rendezvous who was beat quite easily by CF last year, but in saying that looks to have improved and is probably the only one that could perhaps give the tent half a race.

Don't judge the supreme until they're mixing it with this years seniors imo.
Report harry callaghan March 5, 2013 6:56 PM GMT
brooksie what a ridiculous statement...

of course people are going to judge it because going into the race so many novices are highly rated and the renewal looks deep with quality...

we can judge next seasons racing when that time comes around but as it stands this is a very hot looking supreme brimmed with exciting novices rated in the 150's and a favourite rated 163...

very easy to criticize other horses the way you have in a winter when judging form is harder than ever with the weather...you have certainly destroyed a lot of horses with no real back up just they aren't good enough... the way you talk my tent or yours should be odds on because you certainly don't respect any of the other runners

this years supreme is no different than any other lots of unexposed horses lining up except this year looks a high class renewal on paper to me
Report inchcailoch March 5, 2013 7:11 PM GMT
Watch Un Atout jump his hurdles and you might change your mind about him. But I agree that he will be some chaser in time.
Report Brooksielad March 5, 2013 7:32 PM GMT
how on earth can you judge novices running against each other, for all we know these grade 1 races could have a bunch of 170 rated horses or 130. The only way to rate a horse is through more senior horses that have already got lines of form, thats why mtoy has a rating in the 160's how can jezki be given a rating in the 150's when  he hasn't ran against a proven 150 horse...
Report baNjackst March 5, 2013 7:51 PM GMT
I'm not saying MTOY won't win or that he is as good as his rating of 163, but I do suspect that the horses that ran behind him the last day didn't run near their marks. If MTOY is what people are saying Taquin du seuil should be odds on to win the neptune.
Do jezki Grade 1 wins stack up, remains to be seen..... Roll on Tuesday and may every person and horse get there safely.
Report geordie1956 March 5, 2013 8:18 PM GMT
Brooksielad is right in that it is impossible to know beforehand the quality of this race although it does have the makings of the race of the festival from all the preliminaries - I cannot have the favourite at its current price with so many others with latent potential against it - must be a strong lay bet
Report harry callaghan March 5, 2013 8:19 PM GMT
are you saying we cannot rate horses until they have run against seasoned racers??

obviously this suits your bet brooksie... as it happens i myself handicapped mtoy 163 after his run as the right horses surrounded him but it doesn't take away from the way the race was run and how the horse would handle better ground off of fast fractions...all imponderables

as it happens i have melodic rendevous a lot lower than the rpr he has achieved but i maybe wrong and am happy to be wrong if i can understand why...

jezki is a horse i like but personally have him running his best early season and whether he can peak again i have my doubts...he is rated 150 on the back of a grade 1 victory

you cannot say un atout cannot win as he hasn't been off the bridle yet...what you can say about him is he has no collateral form and is 8-1 god only knows what he could do

you then laugh off dodging bullets when he has run against grade 1 older horses...loool as if your smart... and back it up with a second season novice...now that is funny considering he was second to grumeti first time then 4th in the triumph running choke out in lane 8 the whole way before stumbling at aintree...this year he has finished third in a christmas hurdle on ground he doesn't like

champagne fever may not be a superstar but he is honest and genuine and a proper graded horse

nothing worse than having to listen to someone ramping there own selection and putting others down because it suits there bet...i will continue to rate horses novices or not...a bunch of 170 horses unheard of brooksie
Report yort March 5, 2013 8:34 PM GMT
The fav and dodging bullets set an abnormally high standard for the rest to aim at. At current prices the value probably lies with dodging bullets.
Report Monksfield79 March 7, 2013 5:54 PM GMT
If MTOY is rated 163 should the stewards at Newbury on 29th December not looked into the riding. He probably doesn't need such a rating to win supreme but there is 1/2 million reasons to believe Jezki will reach such a rating + at some stage or JP will surely be sacking someone. Now the e/way steal of Cheltenham.
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