Cheltenham Festival
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With Andrew Lynch retained by De Bromhead and Sizing Europe Queen Mother bound, who is likely to get the ride on Flemenstar.
Tough one for Mr Lynch
Tough one for Mr Lynch
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Sizing will b Ryanair bound imo
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Yeah De Bromhead said Sizing Europe is more of a stayer now and looks to be shying away from the Champion Chase towards a Ryanair tilt.
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De Bromhead said, “He looked like he was going to win easy but in, fairness to Rubi Light, he came back at him. He could have gone faster early on and when I saw him running keenly early on, I wasn’t feeling that comfortable.
“There are no easy Grade 1’s but when you are 1/3 favourite you expect to win. That was the pressure today. “He’ll probably be entered in three races at Cheltenham (Champion Chase, Ryanair and Gold Cup). His performance in the Clonmel Oil was great, certainly more impressive than today, and maybe he needs two and a half miles now. “He could go for something like the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park. We’ll have to have a think about it.” |
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On good to soft ground I'd love to see Sprinter v Sanctuaire v Flemenstar v Sizing v Finnians; that would be a proper Champion Chase. Can't see that it will happen though sadly
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v cue card....in any case I'd love to see flemenstar run in it most, win lose or draw I think it would be an amazing sight seeing him pinging away and travelling like he does.
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Flemenstar has a much chance of running in the QM as Barry Geraghty has of riding Long Run.
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well if he dont stay in his next race,you may well be regretting that comment.
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Mr Casey is definitely a likeable type of character but I feel he lacks a bit of "shrewdness". He got a bit carried away with the idea that the horse didn't stay in the Lexus.
The best course of action for now is to target the Irish Hennessy before making plans for the Festival. I would be totally against the idea of going the CC route over the Ryanair on the basis that the Ryanair dosen't hold any prestige. The horse should run in the race that is best suited to his strengths and in my opinion that is going to be the Gold Cup or the Ryanair. |
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Watching him i think a 2m race round Cheltenham would suit the horse.
Thats the race i would choose if like them i thought he was a top notcher,and he dont stay 3m. |
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Personally wouldn't be surprised if he didn't come to the festival at all.
They are now targeting the Irish Hennessy and if ridden a little smarter will surely have a favourites chance. The fact they are going for this means it highly unlikely that they'll drop down to 2M. They need to teach the horse to switch off a little more and going 2M is hardly going to help with this imo. Apparently he is a very bad traveller, this year may be one too early for GC as unlikely to stay the extra 2F yet, so just have a feeling that they may do a Nolan/Joncol and skip it and wait for next year. Actually hope the above is wrong and he comes over - connections should be mindful of what actually happened to Joncol after his Hennessy win and strike while the animal is clearly in rude health. |
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Roo.
I think the reason they are going Irish Hennessey is that they are still unsure of him staying 3m or not,and want to find out once and for all,and if he dont the only race they will go for at Cheltenham is the QM. You make fair points about his travelling,and its certainly possible he dont come over,but if he does has to be the QM for me,no way do they want him in the Ryanair the way theyve been talking. |
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the thing is budd I think they'll find out he does stay. As much as I like Lynch as a jockey, he managed to get beaten in two Grade 1s that day when he was riding by far the best horse - and both in exactly the same way!
So what if he wins, what do they do then? I know Casey doesn't want to, and most Festival aficionados feel the same way, but I actually think the Ryanair is the best race for him either way. |
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Personally,after watching his last race over 2m,i really think he could make em all think in the QM.
Would add so much to the race,and selfishly for that reason i hope he dont stay next time. Although of course if he does,the staying division gets stronger and more exciting. I just want to see the 2m division not become a series of virtual walkovers and this horse could prevent that. |
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If he wins and has shown them enough to think hes a Gold Cup horse then thats where he will go.
Its plain to see that is what connections want. As for the Ryannair,even if its is his optimum race at Chelt,i will be amazed if he runs in it mate. |
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Meant to say its possible he could win,but they could still have doubts about the Gold Cup.
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The thing is, he's not just going to have to win next time, he's going to have to win well!! because even if he stays 3 miles (which I don't think he does) he's still going to have to get the extra 2 furlongs against BW and co. come march isn't he, so pretty much regardless of what happens there still is going to be a question mark against him. And on top of that there is the risk that by trying to find out they could wreck him for whatever race they then choose to target him at.
I'd back right off him now if he were mine with regards to 3 miles and prep him for one of the shorter races, personally, seeing him stride out in the queen mum coupled with his jumping which I think is better than anything else out there at the moment will be one of the sights of the festival....SS or not.  |
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I agree he's extremely unlikely to run in the Ryanair, tbh I never said he would - but if Casey is so against it, why give him an entry? If that race had the same prestige as the QMCC, there would be no debate and that's the race he'd go for.
It might be that his racing style will always make it hard for him to get a true 3 miles. I'd also love to see him against SS but for the horse's development its not going to help him learn to settle better by going flat out over 2 miles. At this stage its clear they see him as more of a stayer so they can go back down in trip in due course I agree that the Gold Cup will not be for him this year even if he wins the Lexus which I think he will. Looking at the long term I would suggest the Ryanair this year or give the festival a miss. |
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Well after watching the Casey interview on ATR,im quiet hopeful of him running in the QM.His trainer mentioned the race quiet favourably.
I have backed him in the Gold Cup with the free bet VC offer,just in case he wins the Lexus well,as 12 will look big if he does.If he dont cannot see him running and i have a free bet.And then hopefully he would go in the QM. He would win the Ryanair,have not much doubt about that,but it does seem that his connections dont fancy the race. |
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I do love this horse but in my opinion talk of him running in - and potentially winning - the Queen Mother is very fanciful. Sprinter will eat him for breakfast if he does line up.
As a few others have said, the Ryanair appears to be tailor made for him this year (unless of course he shows that he stays very well in the Hennessy, which is possible of course, albeit unlikely on what we saw last time). I have visions of him travelling like a beast in the Gold Cup, which connections seem desperate to run in, only to hit a brick wall on turning in and facing the hill. I for one would hate to see that. To be totally honest, and this might seem a bit harsh, I am getting sick of this anti-Ryanair snobbery that seems to have afflicted so many connections recently. For years people used to complain about Cheltenham taking centre stage to the point that it was the only meeting worth winning at, and now there are Grade One championship races that aren't good enough there! It's a great race, and a perfect stepping stone to the Gold Cup for younger horses that might benefit from a slightly less bloody battle at this stage of their careers. In my opinion, if the Ryanair is the best race for your horse but you dodge it because you don't attach as much prestige to it as you do to the Queen Mother or Gold Cup, you deserve to be beaten senseless in either of the other two. |
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Think he would be the best horse SS has faced if he did go QM.
No way of knowing for sure what would happen. |
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have backed him for both the champion and gold cup and would rather see him go for the cc pocket wise ,the way he travels and attacks the fences would make him a genuine contender and probably sprinters toughest rival yet ,and if anything can get s.sacre off the bridle then he is the one most likely to, possibly the most anticipated race of the festival if these 2 line up .
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I don't believe Flemenstar has ever demonstrated anything like the speed required to beat the monster over 2 miles. If it's in the form book, anyone care to point me in the right direction?
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If like me your 30/70 on him getting the gold cup trip it seems the best course of action would be to back him with boyles[money back non/runner] at 11/1 to win the gold cup...he will have to win well in the hennessy for them to run in the gold cup and if he does 11/1 will look a good bet and if he does.nt money back as a non/runner.
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festivalfanatic, I completely agree.
I love Flemenstar but I have no idea where the form (or even visual impression) is that says he'd get Sprinter Sacre off the bridle. It's one thing cruising round and beating Sir Des Champs over two and a half miles but what would Sprinter have done to him? Flemenstar is a very good horse but he might be taking on one (if not) the greatest two-milers we've ever seen, and he'll be asked to do that on his first visit to Cheltenham after having run over two and a half miles and three miles twice back to back. It wouldn't be in the Top 10 clashes of the Festival for me. |
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festivalfanatic
Date Joined: 20 Feb 11 Add contact | Send message When: 05 Feb 13 22:22 Joined: Date Joined: 20 Feb 11 | Topic/replies: 911 | Blogger: festivalfanatic's blog I don't believe Flemenstar has ever demonstrated anything like the speed required to beat the monster over 2 miles. If it's in the form book, anyone care to point me in the right direction? could you tell me a top class 2 miler the monster has beaten? to my mind he has been beating dross, or quality animals suited by further FR SS SE and the FLEM will be a proper champion chase |
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I'd say his Arkle win last year confirmed the visual impression he created was not purely visual, given the subsequent exploits of the beaten horses (including the likes of Foildubh, who was spanked by miles and miles, and was beaten after three fences).
I agree that the above line-up would be a proper Champion Chase, but Finian's Rainbow and Sizing Europe would be the bigger dangers to Sprinter Sacre, and they probably wouldn't get near him either. Sanctuaire might well have gone off too fast in the Tingle Creek but he is a very fast horse and Sprinter breezed by him as though the pace had taken no toll on him whatsoever. And he did that some way from home too. I honestly think people looking for holes in him are barking up the wrong tree entirely. Fair enough, if you hate backing odds-on shots and want to look elsewhere, that makes total sense, but surely people don't doubt he is an absolutely top-class horse. I agree that it's too early to pin the mantle on him yet, but he looks every inch a once in a decade champion to me, and that probably underestimates him. |
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could you tell me a top class 2 miler the monster has beaten?
answers on a post card to.... |
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This could become a farcical Frankel-esque debate...
There are plenty of very good horses that are very effective over two miles that have been beaten senseless by him. He may not have clashed yet with a top-class two-miler, or one that is proven as such, but that is not his fault. For me, the distances he has beaten very good two-milers confirm that he is indeed a monster. Do you think Flemenstar will get him off the bridle, and where is the form that suggests he will? |
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could you tell me a top class 2 miler the monster has beaten?
simple question really? |
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Sprinter looks the best iv seen since Badsworth Boy who won 3 champion chases 1983/85 by a distence 10L AND 10L... I know people are going to say master minded and moscow flyer were better then badworth boy but i think Sprinter sacre could be the best ever,,Time will tell.... if Flemenstar does,nt go for the gold cup he be better off going for the ryan air he has no chance of beating sprinter.
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OK, alleged.
Perhaps you would like to define what you mean by 'top-class' two-miler? Somersby was just spanked 16 and a bit lengths but I suspect you would laugh at the notion of him being a top-class two-miler. He has of course won at the highest level over the distance before and has been rated in the mid to high 160s for a long time. He was beaten less than a length by Sizing Europe in the Arkle, and the same distance by two-time Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (and seven-time Grade One two-mile winner) Master Minded over the minimum trip. It's very easy to say he hasn't beaten a top-class two-miler but that's really missing the point; doesn't beating very good two-milers by miles with his head in his chest count for anything? They are not the be all and end all, but there has to be some merit to the ratings scale. |
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Dont think we need to go down the road of trying to knock SS,picking holes etc.
SS has proved top class and the best 2 miler in England. That does not mean hes unbeatable though,and i happen to think Flemenstar would be a real challenge to him winning the QM. We want a competitive race(dont we??)and the only way thats possible is if Flemenstar,and maybe Sizing and Finians line up. That way we may well see SS show more of what hes capable of,cos he will be running against much better quality 2milers than he has so far,and also it gives us better punting options. Its an exciting prospect and one we should relish,not try to knock. |
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alleged
Quite frankly your comments about SS are those of somebody I would have banned from all forums sports chat and any debate!!!! Why do people constantly try to knock what this horse has beaten? Who else do you want him to beat? Sizing Europe? this horse has been a great 2 miler but Stevie Wonder can see his worse 2 performances this season were in 2 mile races so wants further now.... Finnians Rainbow ?? you must have missed Ascot this year and a lucky winner of last years champion chase(woldnt have won if they had to jump the last!!) ENJOY A GOOD HORSE MAN AND STOP CRABBING WHAT ITS BEAT!!!!! |
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robbo69
i am not knocking SS at all quite the opposite, i am simply knocking the quality of oppostion, mad moose, kumbeshwar, and toubab are hardly top class, handicappers at best. id like to see a race in the QM not a procession beating inferior opposition, i want to see SS beating the best simples, something to remember for years to come. Quite frankly your comments about SS are those of somebody I would have banned from all forums sports chat and any debate!!!! who are you? the forum police? |
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Interesting debate.
Think I'll have a dablle at the 12's with Bet Victor NRFB on Flemenstar ahead of this weekend's run. |
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No I am not the forum police, I am someone who likes a reasoned debate on a subject not foolish comments backed up with no clear facts. He has beat the best horses out of sight that a trainer is willing put put up against him. The fact the oppositon is scared away by this horses ability is not his fault. He runs in the best races, maybe you want him to run in every race that the other who are dodging him choose to run as well. Then he would be knocked for turning up in tin pot races.
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FR SS SE and the FLEM will be a proper champion chase
i stand by that comment |
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It would your right but wont happen because connections of these horse want to go for a race they think they can win. Every chance SS eold brush them aside to like he has everything else in that division,hes that good.
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Thing is Robbo,they think the world of Flemenstar,and it could be that they fancy their chances against SS.
Just cos a lot of people say hes practically unbeatable,does not mean everyone thinks that. If his connections do think that,than we could have a walkover,lets hope they dont!! |