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Well all the big guns have now run over 3 miles, are we any closer to finding the gold cup winner? Kempton was a mud bath and personally can't see any of the horses that ran in that race winning the Gold Cup, the Lexus today has informed us that there isn't much between any of the Irish horses. First Lt and Tidal Bay have given us a clue that Bobs Worth's Hennessy is most probably the strongest form on offer and looks a solid bet now at 4/1. What does everyone else think to how the race is shaping now?
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Can we stop talking about Tidal Bay now, he has little Change of winning a Gold Cup as he is likely to run in Stayers and even if he doesn;t he won't have Ruby on his back.
If it's looking like coming up soft in early March then bring the horse up again. But he's been over discussed in the past few days and it's mostly wasted discussion imo.
If it's looking like coming up soft in early March then bring the horse up again. But he's been over discussed in the past few days and it's mostly wasted discussion imo.
When did Cheltenham announce that the gold cup will be run as an NH Flat race? The SDC supporters have stated he hit 3 fences, thus causing the defeat in the Lexus. Well sorry guys but the Cheltenham Gold Cup has fences too - about 20 of them I think!!!
BW a strong fav for me.
BW a strong fav for me.
there is no doubt that BW should be favorite on all known form, however anyone who has a A/P bet on SDC won't be disappointed on what they've seen so far and I see lot o improvement in him over the next few months. I think FL has run exceptionally well this season as he is not a winter ground horse as he proved last year. Although he got beat fair and square by BW in the rsa last year I don't believe that last year everything went to plan for the connections and having backed him at 25's for last years rsa I am disappointed I dismissed him when there was big prices available. Personally I couldn't have either SC or LR at any prices.
I am on Sir Des Champs, Bobsworth and Long Run.
This was before any of the major players showed this season.
Market has been volatile since then, at that time Sir D
This was before any of the major players showed this season.
Market has been volatile since then, at that time Sir D
I am on Sir Des Champs, Bobsworth and Long Run.
This was before any of the major players showed this season.
Market has been volatile since then, at that time Sir D
This was before any of the major players showed this season.
Market has been volatile since then, at that time Sir D
Apologies.
Market has been volatile since then, at that time SDC was 6-1 fac with Long Run and Bobsworth 8s.
I staked accordingly for similar returns.
The phoney war in the markets since then has seen both Flemenstar and Silviaico Conti (?) come to near head the market.
I saw SC in its opening race at Wetherby, doing all that was necessary and was actually at haydock to watch the non event with Long Run in Betfair.
My reading of that race was that Ruby worked it out and used the fact that his horse was second time out to win a falsely run race very nicely.
As a big Long Run fan I was unhappy with the run but you have to say, they left the best part of season behind at Haydock chasing Kauto home last time.
Market overreacted. SC was right at head of market and Long Run drifted out to 10s for a while.
I tipped this up as solid EW value and a few lads in work got on in the offices.
I will admit a weakness for Long Run and am more concerned with the race before Cheltenham than anything else. King George was tidy but not spectacular.
Bobsworth was a pick on last years Cheltenham win, the Hennesey win was best we have seen so far and his odds have halved.
I always thought the Lexus would give us some answers.
My thoughts on that are that Flemenstar would have finished a poor fourth given another two furlongs.
I thought Sir Des Champs was flying at end and again coupled with Cheltenham run last year am very happy.
Given that glory for Flemenstar lies other than at the Gold Cup.
Given that I am not convinced by SC run at Betfair and have no worries over Long Runs second in that race.
Given that I think both Bobsworth and Long Run have measure of First Lieutenant.
Given I am not yet convinced with Conti. Biggest question here is has he even seen the finish at Cheltenham? Saw him in Mildmay at Aintree last year so I know they swerved Cheltenham last time.
Given all of these things I will stick with my 3.
For all that I like Long Run (National some time?), and for all Bobsworth having best form this year, I fancy SDC the most out of them.
Just to rub it in he is available at better price than when I got on!
Stand to be corrected but Conti lack of Cheltenham form makes his current price way too short.
All the best.
Market has been volatile since then, at that time SDC was 6-1 fac with Long Run and Bobsworth 8s.
I staked accordingly for similar returns.
The phoney war in the markets since then has seen both Flemenstar and Silviaico Conti (?) come to near head the market.
I saw SC in its opening race at Wetherby, doing all that was necessary and was actually at haydock to watch the non event with Long Run in Betfair.
My reading of that race was that Ruby worked it out and used the fact that his horse was second time out to win a falsely run race very nicely.
As a big Long Run fan I was unhappy with the run but you have to say, they left the best part of season behind at Haydock chasing Kauto home last time.
Market overreacted. SC was right at head of market and Long Run drifted out to 10s for a while.
I tipped this up as solid EW value and a few lads in work got on in the offices.
I will admit a weakness for Long Run and am more concerned with the race before Cheltenham than anything else. King George was tidy but not spectacular.
Bobsworth was a pick on last years Cheltenham win, the Hennesey win was best we have seen so far and his odds have halved.
I always thought the Lexus would give us some answers.
My thoughts on that are that Flemenstar would have finished a poor fourth given another two furlongs.
I thought Sir Des Champs was flying at end and again coupled with Cheltenham run last year am very happy.
Given that glory for Flemenstar lies other than at the Gold Cup.
Given that I am not convinced by SC run at Betfair and have no worries over Long Runs second in that race.
Given that I think both Bobsworth and Long Run have measure of First Lieutenant.
Given I am not yet convinced with Conti. Biggest question here is has he even seen the finish at Cheltenham? Saw him in Mildmay at Aintree last year so I know they swerved Cheltenham last time.
Given all of these things I will stick with my 3.
For all that I like Long Run (National some time?), and for all Bobsworth having best form this year, I fancy SDC the most out of them.
Just to rub it in he is available at better price than when I got on!
Stand to be corrected but Conti lack of Cheltenham form makes his current price way too short.
All the best.
Oh yes, and Tidal Bay?
I think that they have got it ready for those two early season races, Hennessey and Lexus.
Would they risk the National instead??? Particularly with handicapper not hammering quality horses nowadays.I was on Neptune following that second he ran to Gilles Cross, similar quality horse who you just knew could keep on going. Ended up well in on best form.
Maybe Tidal would be allotted too much, Ruby thinks so.
Either way, I think he would get to Cheltenham like Kauto did last year, just with too much gone from the tank.
I like the old boys but I think we may have seen his season in the last month.
I think that they have got it ready for those two early season races, Hennessey and Lexus.
Would they risk the National instead??? Particularly with handicapper not hammering quality horses nowadays.I was on Neptune following that second he ran to Gilles Cross, similar quality horse who you just knew could keep on going. Ended up well in on best form.
Maybe Tidal would be allotted too much, Ruby thinks so.
Either way, I think he would get to Cheltenham like Kauto did last year, just with too much gone from the tank.
I like the old boys but I think we may have seen his season in the last month.
Is it possible, no matter where Tidal Bay runs at Cheltenham he might also run in national. If I owned him, and I had two fancied horses in, On his Own and Prince de Beauhene and it made sense to keep the weighs down I'd at least line T.B up.
Will be a tough ask in 2013 for a horse to run in either Gold Cup or World Hurdle at The Festival and then turn out for Grand National. There are only three weeks between Gold Cup and National this year. Last year there was 4 weeks and only Synchronised ran in both. Nuff said.
CV,Tidal Bay has as much right to be discussed on here as any other horse,in fact his form this season gives him more reason than most.
You got the hump cos he beat the best of the Irish in one of their top 3m races mate?
Not sure what your reasoning is to say we should not discuss a horse that has proved hes a leading contender,but really mate you sound a bit bitter towards the horse.
Just cos the WH has been mentioned certainly does not warrant a total disregard for his chances in the GC,after all that race has been mentioned a few times as well by connections.
You got the hump cos he beat the best of the Irish in one of their top 3m races mate?
Not sure what your reasoning is to say we should not discuss a horse that has proved hes a leading contender,but really mate you sound a bit bitter towards the horse.
Just cos the WH has been mentioned certainly does not warrant a total disregard for his chances in the GC,after all that race has been mentioned a few times as well by connections.
Now's the time for a bet on the Gold Cup. The prices are crazy on here. Why would they be betting to 107% with 87 horses
in the list? Too many layers and not enough punters I suspect. I reckon that the book is over-broke once you take out
the no-hopers.
in the list? Too many layers and not enough punters I suspect. I reckon that the book is over-broke once you take out
the no-hopers.
Its probably fair to say the performance of TB have surprised everyone, including Nicholls and Walsh this year. This horse has kept so much back for so long, and only now have they found the key to him, I bet the horse is still in the equivalent of his prime.
Still, those that keep writing him off keep paying the price.
Still, those that keep writing him off keep paying the price.
can people please stop saying tidal bay might "chuck it in again" or not "fancy it"
can anybody show me a run since nicholls has sorted out his various issues which show he is likely to so this please?
can anybody show me a run since nicholls has sorted out his various issues which show he is likely to so this please?
The only one of the fancied horse I'm convinced won't win it is Flemenstar. Sir Des Champs my favourite at the moment.
At the moment my two for this race are (and i cannot believe i am going to say this)
FIRST LIEUTENANT - Think the trip and course will be right up this fellows street this season could we be his for the taking judged solely on that lexus run, an improver with racing, and a spring horse too
TIDAL BAY
- i did back him for that arkle he won though so can't really say faith has ever wavered
I really like bob's worth, but his price imo has now gone. I was wanting on at 9/2 but silly me decided to wait until after the Lexus was run not expecting it to turn out the way it did. He may well win the gold cup, but as i already stated earlier this race i think as we get closer is going to turn into a little bit of a dirty each way race as i can see bobs worths price shortening further as time goes on but none of the others by much at all. Oh and then there is that stat, RSA winners and the gold cup, dismal record!
FIRST LIEUTENANT - Think the trip and course will be right up this fellows street this season could we be his for the taking judged solely on that lexus run, an improver with racing, and a spring horse too
TIDAL BAY
- i did back him for that arkle he won though so can't really say faith has ever wavered I really like bob's worth, but his price imo has now gone. I was wanting on at 9/2 but silly me decided to wait until after the Lexus was run not expecting it to turn out the way it did. He may well win the gold cup, but as i already stated earlier this race i think as we get closer is going to turn into a little bit of a dirty each way race as i can see bobs worths price shortening further as time goes on but none of the others by much at all. Oh and then there is that stat, RSA winners and the gold cup, dismal record!
Bud you'd be interested to know that March has been the driest month 3 of the last 4 years and was the 2nd driest the other year. Interesting stuff, was on BBC news there about the weather.
yeh been watching the news,looks like its gonna take a lot to get rid of the water thats lying around.
Dry jan and we could be back on track for a normal festival.
Dry jan and we could be back on track for a normal festival.
Interesting how Summers are now wet and spring is now driest. What happened to the old word "Spring Showers"? 
Weather is crazy these days
Weather is crazy these days
One thing I was interested in was the rain is now far more intense and plentiful when it comes.
Forgetting the Festival as such, all AP bets will be more difficult unless we get a prolonged dry, warm spell as any cloud burst close to a race may have a significant impact on the ground
Forgetting the Festival as such, all AP bets will be more difficult unless we get a prolonged dry, warm spell as any cloud burst close to a race may have a significant impact on the ground
If it stays like this at least we can take the form into the festival. How many handicaps at Cheltenham are going to be won by 50/1 shots with lots of 0000's by there name if the ground dries up loads.
I am with you bigtime Brooksielad on Conti. Will relish the trip, has great course form, is impervious to ground conditions, trained by a master and ridden by a genius.
Bobs Worth only danger - a grinder who only does enough and has yet to be stretched to his full potential.
Bobs Worth only danger - a grinder who only does enough and has yet to be stretched to his full potential.
A lot of Silviniaco Conti's form is in small fields. That would be a worry. He definitely won't have the same comfort trying to boss the Gold Cup field. Also despite impressive wins in the Charlie Hall and the Betfair Chase, trainer's concerns before those races regarding Cheltenham should not be forgotten. Having said that, I like him.
First Lieutenant is the best of the Irish raiders in my opinion. Ran a brilliant race on soft ground in the Lexus and is surely going to improve with faster conditions. I also like the way he came the Neptune (1st) / RSA (2nd) route as opposed to Sir Des Champs who won the Martin Pipe followed by the Jewson. Traditionally we know which two are the stronger races.
Despite this, it's hard to get away from Bobs Worth who's a dual Festival winner and has no doubts that I can see. Jumps well, travels well, stays well and is a reliable and consistent performer. No doubts. Unlike all of his opponents. At this moment, I would say Bobs Worth is a very strong favourite. I would be as confident about his chances as one can be over two months out from the biggest race in the season. A lot can happen but Bobs Worth a very worthy favourite for the time being.
First Lieutenant is the best of the Irish raiders in my opinion. Ran a brilliant race on soft ground in the Lexus and is surely going to improve with faster conditions. I also like the way he came the Neptune (1st) / RSA (2nd) route as opposed to Sir Des Champs who won the Martin Pipe followed by the Jewson. Traditionally we know which two are the stronger races.
Despite this, it's hard to get away from Bobs Worth who's a dual Festival winner and has no doubts that I can see. Jumps well, travels well, stays well and is a reliable and consistent performer. No doubts. Unlike all of his opponents. At this moment, I would say Bobs Worth is a very strong favourite. I would be as confident about his chances as one can be over two months out from the biggest race in the season. A lot can happen but Bobs Worth a very worthy favourite for the time being.
Agree SoYouThink. I suspect they are going to Gold Cup fresh with Sil Conti so as if he doesn't act at the track e'll still be fresh enough to go to Aintree a track he loves.
You have a valid point about Conti in small fields, although he did get bumped around in the charlie hall, Wayward Prince closed a door in Conti's face and the horse responded ok to being bumped about. I do have every confidence in Ruby putting Conti in the right position early on and getting him into a an early rhythm.
The Cheltenham form I'm not to worried about though, I just get the feeling Nicholls wanted to keep him safe through his novice campaign, he said early on he didn't want to ruin his chances early on in his career. I always thought Conti was going to a good chaser, I remember watching his grade 2 win over hurdles at Ascot and there was a beautiful angle of him jumping his hurdles down the back. The way he floated over them was just so effortless and his shape was incredible. If you haven't watched, it's worth studying. Obviously hurdles and fences are totally different but none the less he's just so natural and were now starting to see it over fences. I really do think he could be a bit special.
The Cheltenham form I'm not to worried about though, I just get the feeling Nicholls wanted to keep him safe through his novice campaign, he said early on he didn't want to ruin his chances early on in his career. I always thought Conti was going to a good chaser, I remember watching his grade 2 win over hurdles at Ascot and there was a beautiful angle of him jumping his hurdles down the back. The way he floated over them was just so effortless and his shape was incredible. If you haven't watched, it's worth studying. Obviously hurdles and fences are totally different but none the less he's just so natural and were now starting to see it over fences. I really do think he could be a bit special.
A good few people fancy First Lieutenant for the Gold Cup,
and say he's and out and out stayer,yet he has been beaten
in his last 8 races and is yet to win a race over further
than 2m5f.If they like this horse they should watch the way
Last Instalment hammered him over 3m last season,a horse
which is unbeaten over fences and is 7/9 with plenty of
improvement in him.Was well fancied for the RSA,until
injury stopped him coming over.If he manages to line up
at the festival this year a major player,in any race.
Hopefully the Gold Cup.
GL ALL
and say he's and out and out stayer,yet he has been beaten
in his last 8 races and is yet to win a race over further
than 2m5f.If they like this horse they should watch the way
Last Instalment hammered him over 3m last season,a horse
which is unbeaten over fences and is 7/9 with plenty of
improvement in him.Was well fancied for the RSA,until
injury stopped him coming over.If he manages to line up
at the festival this year a major player,in any race.
Hopefully the Gold Cup.
GL ALL
Don't quite get where all the confidence behind SC comes from, the charlie hall is a million miles away from gold cup winning form in relation to the opposition and the haydock race was a non event with long runs connections only interested in a work out for their horse and quite happy for SC to have it, yes he may stay and enjoy a gruelling 3 mile 2 furlong contest but I have a gut feeling there will be at least 3 or 4 more that will like it better.
I get exactly where you are coming from Penzance.
Last Instalment was my biggest AP bet this year, when he was 50/1 e/w straight after last year's festival. However, I've virtually lost all hope on him for this race now.
Whatever people say about Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs, I would have put Last Instalment as the top Irish Novice staying chaser last year. Ran a quicker time than Synchronised over the same C&D, on the same day as his Lexus win. He comfortably had First Leiutenent held as well.
He may go for the Ryanair, but I wouldn't touch him in that. I think he'd be hopelessly outpaced. Despite winning over 2.5, he is a proper stayer to me, and he should go Gold Cup and FL Ryanair.
If he even comes over at all, it will be difficult to win any race with such an interupted prep. I was told his injury last year wasn't particularly serious, but would never have backed him if I'd known he'd still be out now.
....You win some, you lose some.
Last Instalment was my biggest AP bet this year, when he was 50/1 e/w straight after last year's festival. However, I've virtually lost all hope on him for this race now.
Whatever people say about Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs, I would have put Last Instalment as the top Irish Novice staying chaser last year. Ran a quicker time than Synchronised over the same C&D, on the same day as his Lexus win. He comfortably had First Leiutenent held as well.
He may go for the Ryanair, but I wouldn't touch him in that. I think he'd be hopelessly outpaced. Despite winning over 2.5, he is a proper stayer to me, and he should go Gold Cup and FL Ryanair.
If he even comes over at all, it will be difficult to win any race with such an interupted prep. I was told his injury last year wasn't particularly serious, but would never have backed him if I'd known he'd still be out now.
....You win some, you lose some.
now the entries are out for the Gold Cup I am starting the process of using trends to look for value and trading chances:
1. The last 13 Gold Cup winners all ran in one of the King George or The Lexus Chase: I am therefore dismissing everything that did not run in those races. These are:
Bobs Worth
Siviniaco Conti
Quel Esprit
Midnight Chase
Wayward Prince
Burton Port
2.Only one horse that placed in the previous seasons Gold Cup has ever improved their finishing position in the following year and that was Kauto Star: based on this I am dismissing both Long Run and The Giant Bolster who filled the places in 2012. Long Run also attempts to become only the second horse to regain the Gold Cup after failing to defend the title. With two major stats to overcome I am happy to dismiss him.
3. The last horse older than 10 to win the Gold Cup was in 1969 so this makes Tidal Bay an extremely unlikely winner and he is dismissed
This leaves me with work to do to shorten my list further and I have a list of trends I can use that can still be met by the remaining runners if need be before the big day.
Firstly, a chase win over at least 3 miles is extremely desirable and several runners have not managed this yet (First Lieutenant, Captain Chris, Flemenstar, Hunt Ball, Hidden Cyclone, Riverside Theatre) but I am not dismissing them until after they have had their prep runs.
Secondly, a win in a Graded chase in the same season is also extremely significant. Grands Crus, Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant, Riverside Theatre, Hunt Ball all fail this so far but could rectify that before the big day. For instance any of SDC, Flemenstar or First Lieutenant could win a 3 mile Graded chase before the day and tick both boxes at the same time.
Finally there are a bunch of other trends that I will apply once all the data is known centering on things like number of chase starts, minimum RPR requirement in a chase (171 required) and so on. For instance, there is a nice little trend about being placed in a hurdle at the Festival which some entrants pass and others don't which I will use later.
At this stage I am building my book by laying Long Run, Siviniaco Conti, Tidal Bay and The Giant Bolster all of whom have very strong trends to overcome. As more info becomes available I will bet for and against those that meet or fail these key trends.
I am not laying Bobs Worth at this stage because he fits every trend except the 'King George or Lexus' so I will be happy to have him on my side come the big day.
I don't know the plans for Grands Crus but if they could get a Graded Chase win into him before the Gold Cup then he would become very interesting at current prices, having already won at 3 miles, placed in a hurdle at the Festival, ran in the King George, being the right age.
Will post more when info becomes clearer
1. The last 13 Gold Cup winners all ran in one of the King George or The Lexus Chase: I am therefore dismissing everything that did not run in those races. These are:
Bobs Worth
Siviniaco Conti
Quel Esprit
Midnight Chase
Wayward Prince
Burton Port
2.Only one horse that placed in the previous seasons Gold Cup has ever improved their finishing position in the following year and that was Kauto Star: based on this I am dismissing both Long Run and The Giant Bolster who filled the places in 2012. Long Run also attempts to become only the second horse to regain the Gold Cup after failing to defend the title. With two major stats to overcome I am happy to dismiss him.
3. The last horse older than 10 to win the Gold Cup was in 1969 so this makes Tidal Bay an extremely unlikely winner and he is dismissed
This leaves me with work to do to shorten my list further and I have a list of trends I can use that can still be met by the remaining runners if need be before the big day.
Firstly, a chase win over at least 3 miles is extremely desirable and several runners have not managed this yet (First Lieutenant, Captain Chris, Flemenstar, Hunt Ball, Hidden Cyclone, Riverside Theatre) but I am not dismissing them until after they have had their prep runs.
Secondly, a win in a Graded chase in the same season is also extremely significant. Grands Crus, Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant, Riverside Theatre, Hunt Ball all fail this so far but could rectify that before the big day. For instance any of SDC, Flemenstar or First Lieutenant could win a 3 mile Graded chase before the day and tick both boxes at the same time.
Finally there are a bunch of other trends that I will apply once all the data is known centering on things like number of chase starts, minimum RPR requirement in a chase (171 required) and so on. For instance, there is a nice little trend about being placed in a hurdle at the Festival which some entrants pass and others don't which I will use later.
At this stage I am building my book by laying Long Run, Siviniaco Conti, Tidal Bay and The Giant Bolster all of whom have very strong trends to overcome. As more info becomes available I will bet for and against those that meet or fail these key trends.
I am not laying Bobs Worth at this stage because he fits every trend except the 'King George or Lexus' so I will be happy to have him on my side come the big day.
I don't know the plans for Grands Crus but if they could get a Graded Chase win into him before the Gold Cup then he would become very interesting at current prices, having already won at 3 miles, placed in a hurdle at the Festival, ran in the King George, being the right age.
Will post more when info becomes clearer
grand Crus wont stay 3m2,so you can dismiss him.Same with Riverside Theatre.Flemenstar wont run in the race.
Hunt Ball aint good enough,theres another gone.
In fact,Just have SDC,Bobsworth and FL you should have the winner Judo.
If its soft add LR and TB.
Anyway just my thoughts,but i know you like yer trends mate,so i look forward to your end results.
Hunt Ball aint good enough,theres another gone.
In fact,Just have SDC,Bobsworth and FL you should have the winner Judo.
If its soft add LR and TB.
Anyway just my thoughts,but i know you like yer trends mate,so i look forward to your end results.
pretty sure The Fellow was placed behind Jodami,
then Beat him the year after,could be wrong,though.
then Beat him the year after,could be wrong,though.
Good luck with the trends judorick, i get the feeling you may well have dismissed the winner with your first trend though.
Perhaps running in those races won't turn out to be that important, I just think it's always the logical step for a fancied gold cup horse to run in one of them races.
Perhaps running in those races won't turn out to be that important, I just think it's always the logical step for a fancied gold cup horse to run in one of them races.
Koral prices for Flemenstar's race
Gold Cup evs
QMCC 6/4
Ryanair 4/1
I notice they don't quote a price on 'doesn't turn up' - what would that be? 4/6!
Gold Cup evs
QMCC 6/4
Ryanair 4/1
I notice they don't quote a price on 'doesn't turn up' - what would that be? 4/6!
thanks for the input, I shall update later but here's what I think:
Bobs Worth could well win. If he were trained by anyone else I would dismiss him and lay him big time but I will keep him onside 'just in case' but having missed the two key races I am dubious. Might be missing a trick by not laying him.
FL will have to win the Hennessey for me to consider keeping him onside. If he gets beat there he will be a major lay.
Long Run, Tidal Bay and The Giant Bolster are extremely unlikely winners imo and I will be laying them mercilessly along with Sil Conti.
Whichever of Flemenstar, SDC or FL wins the Hennessey will be a very strong contender indeed and I will lay the other two (if Flemenstar does not win he will surely miss the CGC)
I cannot dismiss Grands Crus yet despite what you say about him not staying. If he wins a Graded chase before the CGC then I will have to have him onside
Bobs Worth could well win. If he were trained by anyone else I would dismiss him and lay him big time but I will keep him onside 'just in case' but having missed the two key races I am dubious. Might be missing a trick by not laying him.
FL will have to win the Hennessey for me to consider keeping him onside. If he gets beat there he will be a major lay.
Long Run, Tidal Bay and The Giant Bolster are extremely unlikely winners imo and I will be laying them mercilessly along with Sil Conti.
Whichever of Flemenstar, SDC or FL wins the Hennessey will be a very strong contender indeed and I will lay the other two (if Flemenstar does not win he will surely miss the CGC)
I cannot dismiss Grands Crus yet despite what you say about him not staying. If he wins a Graded chase before the CGC then I will have to have him onside
Judo.
re First Lieutenant - is their a trend on previous festival form? this one seems to come good at the right time,last 2 years says that.He could well get beat in the Hennessey and reverse at Chelt,will probably be a close finish again like the Lexus.
re First Lieutenant - is their a trend on previous festival form? this one seems to come good at the right time,last 2 years says that.He could well get beat in the Hennessey and reverse at Chelt,will probably be a close finish again like the Lexus.
judo, if you're using entry list on RP site tread carefully.
Burton Port is on there and yet reported in RP this morning that he is OFTS.
Bold Sir Brian is missing yet Lucinda quoted as saying they'll go for Gold Cup if he misses Peter Marsh chase.
Probably not material to your analysis as neither ran in Lexus nor King George.
Have n't checked BHA site so perhaps you're referring to official entry list there?
Not sure who RP think they're helping with unofficial entry list, unless it is a list of entries which have been made so far and BP was already entered before injury emerged.
Burton Port is on there and yet reported in RP this morning that he is OFTS.
Bold Sir Brian is missing yet Lucinda quoted as saying they'll go for Gold Cup if he misses Peter Marsh chase.
Probably not material to your analysis as neither ran in Lexus nor King George.
Have n't checked BHA site so perhaps you're referring to official entry list there?
Not sure who RP think they're helping with unofficial entry list, unless it is a list of entries which have been made so far and BP was already entered before injury emerged.
The Paul Jones guff from ATR last year was:
POSITIVES
Ran in the King George VI Chase
Second-season chasers
Won or second at the Festival before
Front three in the betting
Respect front runners
NEGATIVES
Not officially rated 166+
Failed to win earlier in the season
Aged 10+
Less than six chase starts
HALF OF THE LAST 20 WINNERS WERE SECOND-SEASON CHASERS FROM CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN 50% REPRESENTATION
POSITIVES
Ran in the King George VI Chase
Second-season chasers
Won or second at the Festival before
Front three in the betting
Respect front runners
NEGATIVES
Not officially rated 166+
Failed to win earlier in the season
Aged 10+
Less than six chase starts
HALF OF THE LAST 20 WINNERS WERE SECOND-SEASON CHASERS FROM CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN 50% REPRESENTATION
yes I will use the Festival form trends after I have dismissed all the ones that fail the major trends like 3 miles, Graded Chase win same season etc
funny enough getting placed in a hurdle is very positive so this is why I can't dismiss GC yet (even though I dismissed him for the RSA last year)
Silviniaco missing the Festival last year is a major negative though specially combined with not running in the two key races, so I can't have him.
If I were to guess, then SDC would win the Hennessey under a positive ride and he would meet all the trends and become a very strong favourite in my mind. But I will wait til he does it before betting
funny enough getting placed in a hurdle is very positive so this is why I can't dismiss GC yet (even though I dismissed him for the RSA last year)
Silviniaco missing the Festival last year is a major negative though specially combined with not running in the two key races, so I can't have him.
If I were to guess, then SDC would win the Hennessey under a positive ride and he would meet all the trends and become a very strong favourite in my mind. But I will wait til he does it before betting
Interesting stuff Judo. You can dismiss another FL run as Morris has already said he won't run him again until March.
As I recall The Fellow got done twice by short heads before finally, and deservedly, winning.
As I recall The Fellow got done twice by short heads before finally, and deservedly, winning.
Of course yeast,forgot that about FL.
Hes done that with him last 2 seasons,ran at xmas and then the festival.
Hes run well both times so it works.
Hes done that with him last 2 seasons,ran at xmas and then the festival.
Hes run well both times so it works.
well thanks! if FL does not run again then he is a major negative with two stats to overcome 1) no chase win at 3 miles 2) no chase win in same season (and that really needs to be a Graded chase but not 100% essential). I will look for the quotes but if that is right then I will include FL in my laying plan.
Ah, well the 'placed the season before stat' I used may not go back as far as the Fellow. Nevertheless, I am convinced neither LR nor TGB are going to win and I am happy to have big reds on them.
Laying these iteratively for a maximum liability (once the market opens):
Long Run
Silviniaco Conti
The Giant Bolster
Tidal Bay
Flight Lieutenant (once confirmed he goes straight to the CGC)
Ah, well the 'placed the season before stat' I used may not go back as far as the Fellow. Nevertheless, I am convinced neither LR nor TGB are going to win and I am happy to have big reds on them.
Laying these iteratively for a maximum liability (once the market opens):
Long Run
Silviniaco Conti
The Giant Bolster
Tidal Bay
Flight Lieutenant (once confirmed he goes straight to the CGC)
this flight lieutenant has gone under the radar, surely he don't meet the trends :)
Gigginstown were also represented in the Lexus by the Mouse Morris-trained First Lieutenant, who ran a blinder to finish second.
"It was the best run he's ever had at this time of year. In the past he has never really run well during the winter, he's really a spring horse," said O'Leary.
"This year he seems to be running much better during the winter, so if he can improve in the spring as he has in previous years, we'll be very happy. He'll go straight to Cheltenham now, for either the Ryanair or the Gold Cup. Mouse likes to run his horses at Christmas and go straight to Cheltenham and they always go there in top condition."
"It was the best run he's ever had at this time of year. In the past he has never really run well during the winter, he's really a spring horse," said O'Leary.
"This year he seems to be running much better during the winter, so if he can improve in the spring as he has in previous years, we'll be very happy. He'll go straight to Cheltenham now, for either the Ryanair or the Gold Cup. Mouse likes to run his horses at Christmas and go straight to Cheltenham and they always go there in top condition."
I think O'Leary's quote is quite enlightening. Always seems to just get outstayed at 3 miles at the moment, no reason to see him beat BW yet though can see improving past him in time.
Have a feeling we'll see him in Ryanair
Have a feeling we'll see him in Ryanair
The stat about King George and Lexus is interesting - like others, I would n't be overly concerned about Bob's Worth failing that stat (especially as the Hennessy form was so emphatically franked in the Lexus) - must admit,however, I'd start to be a little concerned if he goes to the Festival without another run as has been mooted - hopefully, he'll take in the Argento next week.
Not too many options after that - Denman Chase I s'pose but think they have Long Run earmarked for that again.
Not too many options after that - Denman Chase I s'pose but think they have Long Run earmarked for that again.
that's why I said in my post that I would not be laying him but I will if he doesn't have a run
Yep,its a possibility FL may end up in the Ryannair, would be surprised though as he stayed ok in the Lexus.
Think another 2f on a course he enjoys will be ok,but another that we aint gonna know till near the time.
Think another 2f on a course he enjoys will be ok,but another that we aint gonna know till near the time.
Gonna back FL for the Ryannair with the VC offer,just in case.
Already have him backed for the Gold Cup,need the insurance,as i really think hes a big player at the festival in his chosen race.
Already have him backed for the Gold Cup,need the insurance,as i really think hes a big player at the festival in his chosen race.
I backed FL last year in r.s.a and he was bet fair and square by BW. It is possible that FL wasn't 100% with all the mishaps he had last year but I doubt that, as I wouldn't have swapped him for anything else turning for home. The fact of the matter is he was completely outstayed by BW. I would be very surprised if all goes to plan with SDC that FL doesn't line up in the Ryanair, Istly he'd have an outstanding chance and 2ndly he'd represent the sponsor. (again only if everything does to plan with SDC).
extremely good point! I already think SDC will win the Hennessey so it would then make sense that he would be the one of the CGC
Each to their own methods, but using stats isn't one for me.
For example, Silviniaco Conti has top rate form this year (continuing from the end of last year), won a Betfair, top class jockey, top class trainer and he is simply dismissed because he didn't run in the King George, whereas Grands Crus has stamina doubts and has been stuffed twice this year but because he was placed in a hurdle race once he has a chance?
For example, Silviniaco Conti has top rate form this year (continuing from the end of last year), won a Betfair, top class jockey, top class trainer and he is simply dismissed because he didn't run in the King George, whereas Grands Crus has stamina doubts and has been stuffed twice this year but because he was placed in a hurdle race once he has a chance?
Stats,trends they aint for me either chief,and i totally agree with your points about SC and GC.
I also think in a race like the Gold Cup where all the runners we know pretty well,it dont apply so much as say a race like the RSA.
Still,we are all different and a lot do use them,and it does bring out opinions from others as has happened after Judo's original post.
I may not agree with some of what he says but i find it interesting.
I also think in a race like the Gold Cup where all the runners we know pretty well,it dont apply so much as say a race like the RSA.
Still,we are all different and a lot do use them,and it does bring out opinions from others as has happened after Judo's original post.
I may not agree with some of what he says but i find it interesting.
It's not just not running in KG though.is it? SC actually swerved festival last year and has no chase course form.
I agree he has decent form this season but on flat tracks and I do see why people would be dead against him.
I agree he has decent form this season but on flat tracks and I do see why people would be dead against him.
It's not just not running in KG though.is it? SC actually swerved festival last year and has no chase course form.
I agree he has decent form this season but on flat tracks and I do see why people would be dead against him.
I agree he has decent form this season but on flat tracks and I do see why people would be dead against him.
anyone know what the stats are for taking an unbeaten record for the season into the race?
roo, the reason behind swerving the festival was more the fact he wasn't right finishing in behind invictus, so they decided they would give him an extra month to recover then take him to aintree a fresh horse.
I can understand why people are against him because of his lack of racing at Cheltenham. But you have to look at why he didn't go, he didn't go to Cheltenham on his first season over here because they thought 2 miles in a champion hurdle would be to short for him and they didn't want to bottom him in a world hurdle, they put him away as they always considered him a top chaser in the making. Obviously last festival as i mentioned above.
He has ran at the course and finished a respected 3rd behind menorah and cuecard giving both of them weight, it was in affect a sprint to the line that day which would never of suited him. Personally I wouldn't be that concerned about the undulations horses know how to go up and down, he does it on Nicholls gallops day in day out. I think its more important he's had lots of experience running left handed personally.
I can understand why people are against him because of his lack of racing at Cheltenham. But you have to look at why he didn't go, he didn't go to Cheltenham on his first season over here because they thought 2 miles in a champion hurdle would be to short for him and they didn't want to bottom him in a world hurdle, they put him away as they always considered him a top chaser in the making. Obviously last festival as i mentioned above.
He has ran at the course and finished a respected 3rd behind menorah and cuecard giving both of them weight, it was in affect a sprint to the line that day which would never of suited him. Personally I wouldn't be that concerned about the undulations horses know how to go up and down, he does it on Nicholls gallops day in day out. I think its more important he's had lots of experience running left handed personally.
Brooksie, I have no axe to grind with SC at all. I was simply explaining from a stats point of view it wasn't just missing the KG.
Personally I wouldn't back him until I'd seen Cheltenham form but its looking increasingly likely that I won't bet on the race as I'm struggling to see any value. I sort of accept your points but still surprised that a horse of his standard hasn't pitched up to bigger Cheltenham races
I can see both sides of the argument.
Personally I wouldn't back him until I'd seen Cheltenham form but its looking increasingly likely that I won't bet on the race as I'm struggling to see any value. I sort of accept your points but still surprised that a horse of his standard hasn't pitched up to bigger Cheltenham races
I can see both sides of the argument.
Probably better waiting until the day now to back one then, Most of the value has gone now and the prices wont differ much on the day. Unless something drastic happens in one of the few remaining trials.
Surely the near 15/8 on betfair place market it great value about LONG RUN, the horse has never been out the first 3 is a proven stayer, oh yeah and good enough to beat those two old rogues Denman and Kauto Star.....2 years ago maybe but streets better form than anything else in this field!!!!!
15/8 reflects the fact that it's an ante-post bet robbo. You might not 15/8 on the day if he's a definite runner.
But unless i'm missing the point of this whole thread which says thoughts on the gold cup at this stage!!!! I am giving my thought as at now, and i can get 15/8 on betfair place market right now pete....
Best hope its soft then robbo,dont see him placing on decent ground personally.
Of course you're right Robbo. I prefer not to bet 'em at short prices when there's still a couple
of months to go.
There's many a slip twixt cup and lip, so they say.
of months to go.
There's many a slip twixt cup and lip, so they say.
He won the race on good ground against 2 proper stayers but one was quick enough to win the sandown 2 mile race that i cant remember the bloody name of twice. You can pick wholes in the form of everything in the race if you look hard enough after all LR cant jump but has never fell! got a bad jockey but hes been good enough to win 2 king georges a gold cup finish 2nd in a grand national along with at least 2 foxhunter wins.
I agree with you about short prices but this horse has placed every time its ran so for me its as good a value bet as trying to find the winner, but as you say pete just like people tipping up a wnner i might not get a run for my money thats the danger of playing in any anti post market.
I agree with you about short prices but this horse has placed every time its ran so for me its as good a value bet as trying to find the winner, but as you say pete just like people tipping up a wnner i might not get a run for my money thats the danger of playing in any anti post market.
The length of this thread shows what a fascinating race it's gonna be this year. The 2 I can't have are LR and TB. LR's jumping is getting worse, not better, stats are all wrong, and beating captain Chris a neck is not GC winning form. As for TB, surely they will go too fast on What will be soft at worst, and the sulky old devil will not ba able to pull back all of BW, SDC, LR and SC.
Have you ever seen a race LR has not missed a fence or 2? The horse just seems to be able to get from one side to the other and never look like falling, Captain chris form not sure look at his record going right handed, stacks up ok if not earth shattering. This is a horse thats been there and done it.... Not all these second season chasers are stars and some wont even run
Only one question for me. Why is Bobs Worth 3-1 when surely he should be shorter? Absolutely no question marks against him unless it comes up heavy which is probably a 10-1 chance. He's twice outstayed First Lieutenant and the extra distance will suit him. He's a dual Festival winner. He holds everything bar Silviniaco Conti at the top of the market on RSA/Hennessy/Lexus form and is very progressive. His jumping is very clean and neat and he just seems to arrive at the second last going very well then find plenty for pressure. 3-1 NRNB with Tote Credit will be taken for 5pts this morning.
If you feel that strongly,why are you going on about it??
Would keep it quiet if i were you.
Hes 3/1,cos hes had 1 run out of novice company,and their are some good horses in opposition.
Would keep it quiet if i were you.
Hes 3/1,cos hes had 1 run out of novice company,and their are some good horses in opposition.
Agreed budd.Did these people see how he jumped in the Feltham behind Grand cru and SC. Better ground he jumps well on but not too sure if its sticky, just like most of the others 3-1 is a far price 7/4 would be madness.
3/1 isn't a good price, not 2 months before the race.
I have backed him, took 3-1 NRNB so it's like taking on the morning of the race on credit but thanks for the advice anyway.
Don't know what the Fltham or Reynoldstown form has to do with his chance here. His last 2 runs show him to be a few lbs ahead of anything in the field.
couldn't breathe in the feltham, ran like he had a bag over his head geraghty said, that's why he had an op after.
Booster,
I dont think his last run puts him a few lbs ahead of TBay.
I dont think his last run puts him a few lbs ahead of TBay.
Depends if you think he had something in hand and is progressive which I do. Tidal Bay's last run with First Lieutenant puts Bobs Worth even further ahead and he'll only run in the Gold Cup on soft ground according to his owner so not a very persuasive alternative really.
I'd agree that granted normal progression, BW is still slightly ahead of TB
However must not forget the Lexus was 3 miles and the extra 2F would be really important to TB and bring him closer.
However must not forget the Lexus was 3 miles and the extra 2F would be really important to TB and bring him closer.
never said it was a peruasive alternative,have to know the Ground for that,which incidentally none of us know.
Just questioning the few lbs superior,which strictly on the form book is wrong.
Indeed Roo,the extra distance would indeed be good for TB,and is important.
Anyone dismissing him will look foolish if ground is soft.
Just questioning the few lbs superior,which strictly on the form book is wrong.
Indeed Roo,the extra distance would indeed be good for TB,and is important.
Anyone dismissing him will look foolish if ground is soft.
how much rain has Cheltenham had in the last two weeks? had nothing in the Midlands since Christmas.
can we replace the water table with the snow table now please?
Not much mate,but now weve got all sorts happening this weekend and next week.
Rain turning to snow,fecking great!!
Rain turning to snow,fecking great!!
I'm sure I read the other day that its currently soft (good to soft in places) for trials day.
That's not bad considering it was unraceable and waterlogged 11 days ago. No matter how bad the weather is, if we get two weeks of dry weather (long shot I know) before the festival, then it will be the usual good to soft imo on the Tuesday.
No turftrax map availalbe atm unfortunately.
That's not bad considering it was unraceable and waterlogged 11 days ago. No matter how bad the weather is, if we get two weeks of dry weather (long shot I know) before the festival, then it will be the usual good to soft imo on the Tuesday.
No turftrax map availalbe atm unfortunately.
Re: TB, I got the distinct impression going through the wylie quote the other day that he wasn't particularly bothered about the ground coming right to allow his horse to run in the GC.
"If the ground is good or faster then he won't run in the Gold Cup as we've tried it before and they go too fast for him, but if it was very soft we'd probably give it a go."
"If the ground is good or faster then he won't run in the Gold Cup as we've tried it before and they go too fast for him, but if it was very soft we'd probably give it a go."
Yep,i cant see him running in the GC unless its as he says-very soft.That scenario gives him a major chance.
Think they fancy their chances in the WH.
Think they fancy their chances in the WH.
As far as TB goes, you should read PFN's update on here about him. 'Really fancy him for the Grand National'. Now a cynic might say that this is his only chance of denying Hendo the trainer's championship but realistically, he will have a less arduous race in the GC than the WH, whatever the ground.
Re the Silviniaco Conti issue earlier in the thread about him missing the King George is a big negative, I'd actually have it as a huge positive.
He's never ran on heavy and is still a very young horse. In hindsight I'm sure half of the owners wished they hadn't run in that race, and I certainly don't get any pleasure watching horses being dragged over the line and getting pulled up.
Big positive that they'll get better ground in the Denman Chase, which hopefully won't leave a mark on him, like the King George may have done to a few, but of course we won't know that until their next race.
FWIW, I haven't backed him, but if Flemenstar drops out then I'll back him, and will have him and SDC vs the field.
He's never ran on heavy and is still a very young horse. In hindsight I'm sure half of the owners wished they hadn't run in that race, and I certainly don't get any pleasure watching horses being dragged over the line and getting pulled up.
Big positive that they'll get better ground in the Denman Chase, which hopefully won't leave a mark on him, like the King George may have done to a few, but of course we won't know that until their next race.
FWIW, I haven't backed him, but if Flemenstar drops out then I'll back him, and will have him and SDC vs the field.
As far as TB goes, you should read PFN's update on here about him. 'Really fancy him for the Grand National'. Now a cynic might say that this is his only chance of denying Hendo the trainer's championship but realistically, he will have a less arduous race in the GC than the WH, whatever the ground.
Surprised you lads (and lassies) haven't jumped down my throat here....I did of course mean the complete opposite. Jumping fences is much tougher than hurdles, not least becasue there is more of them in a race of the same distance!
Surprised you lads (and lassies) haven't jumped down my throat here....I did of course mean the complete opposite. Jumping fences is much tougher than hurdles, not least becasue there is more of them in a race of the same distance!
I spotted that, but didn't want to say something and risk the thousands of foot in mouths I post to come back to haunt me
Very gracious duffy....I put it down to being an old fack!
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