Gold Cup thoughts now Christmas has passed

My thoughts are it all depends on the ground,and at this stage the 2 horses with the best form are Bobsworth and Tidal Bay.
I too dont rate the KG as providing the winner,and think the Lexus 4 plus Bobsworth gives you the winner.

Interesting, It sounds stupid saying this in December but if the race pans out with no mistakes and they all run to there best I'd be confident at the moment to name the first 4 home. Racing never works out like that mind.

1st Silviniaco Conti  2nd Bobs Worth and First Lt and Tidal Bay not sure which for 3rd. The Hennessy looks solid and Silviniaco will be a monster over  3 1/4.

bobs worth rock solid e/w bet for me horse loves cheltenham and looks straight forward alot of ifs an buts with others

First Lieutenant 14/1 e/w. Great run today. Only beaten 2.5 lengths by the Gold Cup fav in the Sun Alliance.

Great form in soft and will be even better on good ground so the going won't be an issue. Morris will put him away now until the big day, as he has done the last 2 years, and his subsequent festival form reads 12.

Bobs Worth 2013 Gold Cup Winner.  Rock solid form, loves Cheltenham.  Jumps, stays and sheer class. Could win 2 or 3 if he stays fit and healthy.

Can't be having Silviniaco- I just think of that race at Ascot when he couldn't beat the one-paced Alfie Spinner and was 7L odd behind Bobs Worth who was crying out for further.

PN reportedly intends to send him straight to Cheltenham as well without a warm-up (that's what he said after the Betfair).

Quevega and hunter-chasers apart, horses who try to win at the Festival off a lay-off of over 99 days have an absolutely dreadful record, something like a 7% SR.

Race is wide, wide open.

Bobs Worth - worthy fav - Hennessey form + RSA rock solid

Long Run - never gives up, lacks a change of gear but he'll be thereabouts. Would be surprised if he didn't find one too good though. Not beyond the realms, however

Tidal Bay - Graham Wylie is an idiot as he could have had a Gold Cup winner had he not been trained by a moron for so long. 12 in March though would be disappointing if he won

Sir Des Champs - Better ground, Cheltenham will help. Stays for sure

Flemenstar - Probably the best horse in the race today but the ? over him staying is now more prominent. Frankly I think he handles any ground and would be fine at the festival but the ? will remain until March.

First Lieutenant - Admirable. Monster runs on ground that can't suit but still, doesn't win very much these days. Undismissable (if that is even a word)

Captain Cbris - Deserves to take his chance as he stayed really well on Boxing Day in ground that it'd been hard to see him getting home in. ? about going left handed remains - may skip and target Punchestown (and would lag up there imo)

Silviniaco Conti - Something doesn't sit right with him for me. Done nowt wrong over fences but can't quite put my finger on it. Respected, however.




Conclusion - i'm none the fecking wiser

Very fair assessment FFT and I concur with your conclusion....great, isn't it?

no one will be any the wiser with the doubt about the ground.
It really is all about that this time for me.
We cannot ignore the possibility of a soft ground festival,so when i read things like Tidal Bay will get outpaced,then that has to be in reference to normal ground festival,and right now that looks rather doubtful.
He won fair and square over 2 furlong less today,and we all know hes better over further than 3m.
Personally i would not write off any of the first 4 home today,and in terms of GC trials,todays was far more telling than the KG,and i am pretty sure any of those today would have won the KG.

I've rowed in with the 14/1 on FL also. I think that is a knocking eachway bet. Form figs after Dec = 12 and he was quite keen in the RSA last season.

Bobsworth is undoubtedly the one to beat, no doubts whatsoever, but the price discrepancy is big enough to get involved imo.

Between Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs. Both have won at the last two Cheltenham Festivals, so we know ground and course are no issue whatsoever (unlike SDC)

SDC may well be the one if he jumps cleanly but he made a couple of bad mistakes today, whereas Bobs Worth just looks utterly bomb proof - plus give me Barry Geraghty over Davy Russel every day of the week.

Will also be very interesting to see who Ruby rides if Tidal Bay goes for the Gold Cup.

Ruby will ride TB if its soft,and could well win the race.
Anything better than soft,i aint sure TB will be in the race.
Its all about the ground,and we should be posting accordingly imo.

Well you are lucky then mate,i still have it wide open with at least half a dozen good candidates.

a good pointer for the gold cup today bet we must bear in mind how these races thin out by the time of actual race day .the king george looked an exceptionally strong with loads of viable contenders  a few weeks before boxing day but we had loads of defectors through injury and one thing or another ,would not want to take too short a price about the 1st 3-4 in the market at this stage .

I have SDC at 10/1 from March, which I'm satisfied with, but can't deny 2 defeats in 2 runs is disappointing. If the ground was to improve (not guaranteed this year) I think he'll be shorter as maybe the soft ground is behind the less fluent jumping. Definitely needs to improve, but was staying on better than even Tidal Bay today.

I'd be very surprised if Ruby wasn't on Silvianiaco Conti, which has to be a negative for Tidal Bay. If SC takes to Cheltenham then he'll go close and would prob be my 2nd fav to Bobs Worth who has the least question marks of all

It would be surprising if Flemenstar didn't find at least 1 too good over 3m2 regardless of the ground, despite the fact he may travel like the best horse again. Ryanair most likely now for this season.

Can't see any reason why, admirable as he is, First Lieutenant will turn his form with Bobs Worth round.

I don't think Long Run is good enough any more, and Capt Chris didn't seem to enjoy Cheltenham last season so there have to big doubts about him

Ruby's words were something like: 'if it was up to me, he'd go for the World Hurdle but I just ride 'em'.

Should boil down to what Wylie wants to do, he won't care about Conti being in the race and he's already won multiple World Hurdles with Inglis Drever so I would want to have a shot at Gold Cup in his position (it's not inconceivable that they might even wait for Grand National where hunting him around at the back like he does would be a perfect tactic on the first circuit - his jumping no longer seems to be a problem since Nicholls got hold of him).

It should not be forgotten that the horse had a hard enough race in the Hennessey less than a month ago which makes today's effort even more creditable - he clearly takes his races well so, given the gap between Cheltenham and Aintree next year he could take in both Gold Cup and Grand National, getting placed in the former before winning the latter Wink

Having said all that, World Hurdle and the National would be a mindboggling double Excited

Seriously, on balance still have an open mind about the Gold Cup but TB makes most appeal at the prices - as one poster above mentioned also Bold Sir Brian might yet prove interesting, his trainer mentioned Argento as a possible target I believe and I can see him giving the Gold Cup favourite plenty to think about in that race.

I wont be backing half a dozen Uncle,although having TB at 100 gives me license to back others.
I'm just saying that the race is a lot more open for me than just simply saying its between 2 horses.
TB beat SDC fair and square today,jumped much better and will relish the extra distance of the Gold Cup.I see no proper reasoning why SDC should be so much shorter than TB,especially given his close form with the current fav,makes no sense.
Also given yesterdays race it makes no sense that FL is so much bigger than SDC either.I know where the value lies and shall punt accordingly.
On the day i intend to be in a position to back Bobs or SDC.

bobsworth looks the winner big time but put fleminstar wit paul nic n ruby id lump on wat a jumper wat a traveler nic is a great man to teach a horse to settle and build stamina into his training from red rum winin a 5f sprint to winin 3 grand nationals horses need the right trainer look at tidal bay sine he has gone to him he won an arkle well then did nutin for years paul nic gets him to win 3m5f grade 1 handicap of top weight and todays big pot theirs a lot of people sayin fleminstar wont stay but no one will give u a decent bet at 25t1 about that his trainer is clueless he botteled cheltenham last year wit this horse between mullins paul nic and hnderson they never wait till next year they just go 4it while the horse is fit