Cheltenham Festival
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been looking for some possible ante post value in this race and it looks like it could cut up quite a lot as the festival nears as a fair few may go for the jewson ,and a few bubbles could get burst along the way as well . the current ante post fav is dynaste trained by david pipe and he has done nothing wrong so far winning both his novice chases in good style and deserves his position at the head of the market he should improve further and ticks a few boxes but at around 5/1 i think there is better value elsewhere.
boston bob has a big reputation and has some decent hurdles form and a good 2nd to brindisi breeze at this years festival ,he made rather hard work of beating one of h.de bromheads narrowly over 2.4 miles at navan on heavy going when long odds on and although he should improve, but it was a workmanlike performance and he may be slightly overated and at around 8/1 he can be opposed .
arvika legionare won well in the grade 1 drinmore chase leading all the way and jumping well but he was given more rope than albert pierepoint and he wont have things all his own way in the future ,also with w.mullins he is a possible for the arkle so not a ante post option .
one at a price who could go well is a.martins dedigout trading around 20/1 ,he was a classy hurdler winning a grade 1 at the punchestown festival ,he won his maiden chase and was a staying on strongly 2nd in the drinmore chase to the afformentioned arvika legionaire ,held up at the back davy russell he was miles behind at the 3rd last and stayed on really well over an inadaquat trip to be beaten 11lengths by the enterprisingly ridden mullins horse, 3miles plus should suit this horse much better and gigginstown have a fair record in the rsa and quite possible he will be aimed at the race ,at around 2s on here he rates a fair bet .good luck .
selection r.sa chase DEDIGOUT 20/1 on bf or at spoils or vcs 1 POINT EACH WAY .
boston bob has a big reputation and has some decent hurdles form and a good 2nd to brindisi breeze at this years festival ,he made rather hard work of beating one of h.de bromheads narrowly over 2.4 miles at navan on heavy going when long odds on and although he should improve, but it was a workmanlike performance and he may be slightly overated and at around 8/1 he can be opposed .
arvika legionare won well in the grade 1 drinmore chase leading all the way and jumping well but he was given more rope than albert pierepoint and he wont have things all his own way in the future ,also with w.mullins he is a possible for the arkle so not a ante post option .
one at a price who could go well is a.martins dedigout trading around 20/1 ,he was a classy hurdler winning a grade 1 at the punchestown festival ,he won his maiden chase and was a staying on strongly 2nd in the drinmore chase to the afformentioned arvika legionaire ,held up at the back davy russell he was miles behind at the 3rd last and stayed on really well over an inadaquat trip to be beaten 11lengths by the enterprisingly ridden mullins horse, 3miles plus should suit this horse much better and gigginstown have a fair record in the rsa and quite possible he will be aimed at the race ,at around 2s on here he rates a fair bet .good luck .
selection r.sa chase DEDIGOUT 20/1 on bf or at spoils or vcs 1 POINT EACH WAY .
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Any thoughts on Back in Focus Foyleswar ?
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havent heard to much about him but some say he needs extreme distances i am not sure tho ,just think this dedigout has a similar profile to weapons amnesty and fist lieut ie. been running well on bad ground and on better ground could be a lot better,will give back in focus a look on the vids good luck sno
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I will stick dedigout in an we Accra for the festival - gl to you too
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good luck sno but if ya fancy back in focus dont let me put you off !
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Dedigout a good shout foyles but not e/w at this stage. Today's events prove that might as well either double stake on win, use the other half to back something else or keep money in pocket. Something just as likely to go wrong or be aimed elsewhere, owners have plenty of options.
G/L nonetheless |
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yeah roo have backed him win in singles, and each way in multiples as ya say anything can happen in this game ,done me money on al ferof gold cup but could revive my silvinio conte bet for the king george which looked a lost cause for weeks ,dont know if nicholls will have silvino ready for the king george in time but it may be on thier minds now!
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Been scratched I believe foyles and as I said on another thread, would surely have backed off him after betfair and wouldn't have been ready
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yeah roo scratched, never mind ,
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I like Dedigout, for some reason I prefer Irish horses in the RSA
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been looking hard at this race for a while an deff think highland lodge is the value in the race at the min an was impressed with his performance at chelt, Dynaste looks solid but the value has gone so gonna snap up some 20s e/w on highland lodge
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Any thoughts on Rocky Creek ?
Like Highland Lodge but thought trainer thinkinoff missing festival if going not on the soft side ? |
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yea thats the only doubt the going just hope it doesnt dry up to much
 then again claisse will always get the hose pipe out  Rocky Creek looks like nicholls main target and is a good price again mate im just trying for bit of value |
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Defo think value to be had against the top two, just picking the right one.
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Is Hadrian's approach going for this?
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The fav looks one of the best bets of the week other than the really short ones fro the Henderson yard. Jumps and stays and has course form. But a bad race for favs over the last few years...
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Copy/pasted from oddschecker and have to agree with every word frankly
Having watched so many good horses canter round in their comfort zone in uncompetitive novice chases, and then seen them struggle in the heat of battle in the RSA, I reckon the importance of being battle hardened over fences (not hurdles) is underestimated. The recent results back this theory up. It’s 15 years since Florida Pearl won this after just 2 chase runs. In the last 10 runnings, 3 winners had run in three chases, 4 in four and the other 3 in five or more. 6 had run by the end of October and the earliest date a winner had had their last run was the 27th January. In an era where training methods allow so much more of a horse’s preparation to be done at home, some trainers haven’t cottoned onto the fact that that doesn’t work for every type of race at the Festival. We’ve seen plenty of classy, inexperienced, short priced favourites bite the dust recently – Our Vic 11/8 (2 runs), Commercial Flyer 9/2 (1 run), Punchestowns 2/1 (2 runs) and Time For Rupert 7/4 (2 runs.) Although Grands Crus (6/5) had had 3 runs last season he hadn’t run since Boxing Day. Kinda backs up my system for this race, to lay the pants off every short priced jolly running in this race every single year and Dynaste won't be any different  Of them in the market for this though, i like the look of a couple, the one this fellow makes a good case for in the RSA is ROCKY CREEK, i too like him but another couple i like are possibly HIGHLAND LODGE and HADRIANS APPROACH though until we know more i wont be playing anything in the race! |
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has willie mullins ruled out vesper bell from going to Cheltenham? Nice horse imo decent form beat aupcharlie in a bumper won easy on his debut had the horse that finished 2nd to boston bob in behind, although think he was found lame, not sure.
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I'll never forget the massive Harcon only having to turn up to win in 1995. his form going into Cheltenham
19Feb95 Pun 18Hy NvChG3 12K 11-9 1/5 (12L Sound Man 11-9) 4/9F K F O'Brien — * * 05Feb95 Leo 21Sft/Hy NvChG212K 11-10 1/5 (20L Winter Belle 11-2) 4/7F K F O'Brien — * * 28Dec94 Leo 24Hy NvChG3 6K 11-8 1/5 (dist Storm Front 10-13) 1/2F K F O'Brien — * * 10Dec94 Pun 18Sft NvCh 2K 11-2 1/12 (9L Athy Spirit 11-2) 9/10F K F O'Brien — included a 12l drubbing of Sound Man his run at Cheltenham 15Mar95 Chl 25Sft C1ChG1 49K 11-4 2/13 (9L Brief Gale 10-13) 6/4F K O'Brien Outstayed by Mr Gifford's Brief Gale This race is a mine field for punters and a paradise for bookmakers. |
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Believe they are thinking 4 miler for Vesper Bell brooksie - but with Mullins things do change
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Like the look of Highland Lodge,just taken price with the VC offer.
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This race is a mine field for punters and a paradise for bookmakers.
Easiest race of festival every year bar the Neptune. This year, max lay Dynaste. Cannot win. |
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Got to agree with above - been to festival twice, had winner twice. Out and out stats race.
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This race more so than any other race has destroyed good horses. Of all those short price horses over the years that got beat how many went on to achieve anything, even over a shorter trip. Of all the surprise winners of the race how many went on to prove it wasn't a fluke. Very few have went on to better things and those that did were exceptional.
Do I think Dynaste should run, the answer is NO, if he wins or loses, this race will break him. After his first chase win Scudamore said he believed in time the horse would stay 3 mile, which made me think an initial plan was to go a handy route with him this year. He's been that impressive and a lack in depth with talented staying novices this year he'll probably go down the RSA route but beware, of all stables that already know the consequences of this grueling race the Pipe yard know. No bet/ No Lay. |
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Florida Pearl, Looks Like Trouble , Bobs Worth ???
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I did say those that were successful afterwards were exceptional. I be writing all night if you want the cast offs.
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Highland Lodge and Rocky Creek run today at Kempton in the 3m novice chase at 1.50pm.
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yep,will be watching with interest
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Glad I managed to get the 20's on Rocky Creek before the off. Possibly could even be a couple of lbs better on good to soft?
Anybody know what the plans are you Dedigout after his disappointing run lto? |
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Rocky would hose up in the 4 miler imo, don't think he'll be good enough to beat Boston Bob though
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I have backed the favourite ante post for this race the last 3 years and been beaten every time so I have rather stupidly written Dynaste off, but I just don't see his price as any sort of value in a novice chase. Boston bob is a very good horse, but again I fail to see the value based on his sole chase so far. Would always prefer to back small at long odds if I'm backing ante post on this.
Also, the winners tend to be very good jumpers who have stamina to enable them to fight for the line, and I think Rocky Creek and Back In Focus are the value if they were to turn up. |
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on the trends of the last 10 years most if not all winners have had at least 3 chase runs ,trends can get busted tho!
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done me dough on this fecker!
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done me dough on this fecker!
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Hoping Back In Focus runs in the RSA,Think him and Rockys Creek will grind everything else out of this and could fight out a exciting finish,
Solid jumpers with great technique who will relish the stamina busting test. |
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Rocky Creek definitely adds a little bit of depth, which the race definitely needed
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Sorry to keep harping on about Back in Focus but unless bottomless is in the going description he won't be running in cheltenham.
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Indeed he does,Dynaste has so much against him but he could be the one too break all the usual stats this year,
Boston Bob i personally have never been taken with and find all the talk of him being the next big thing nonsense and i'm sure Mullin's said the ground caught him out last year which was typical March ground, For me he could be a potent threat to all in the Jewson i can't have him at all for the RSA until he shows me he gets 3 miles comfortably. I'll always favour a dour staying type for this than a speedy middle distance(2m4f) horse which is how i see the top two in the betting..Nice to see a few coming through who for me are showing they are well up to winning this race and are still available at decent prices. |
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BB wasnt him self in the Bert Bartlett and didnt put Ruby in the race till late and when he got going he wasnt stopping so im pretty sure he stays well enough. Florida Pearls 3rd chase start was in the RSA and Willie rates BB just as good so im sure he knows what hes doing.
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Well Highland Lodge wont be winning,but at least i bet with the VC offer,cos he wont run in the race now surely.
Got Rocky Creek all wrong,ran well and must have a chance if he turns up. |