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Rock On Ruby Champion Hurdle winner 2013

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Replies: 241
By:
booster
When: 18 Feb 13 18:07
Sintonian, I'm actually agreeing with 90% of what you're saying but find the bit about Zarkandar not seeing which way he goes a bit complacent, that's all.
By:
CVByrne
When: 18 Feb 13 18:14
Booster, Fry keeps saying he'll be better next time for both his runs this season. Why can he run 2 great races last season and not do that this season. Hendo said after each Punjab run that it's all about Cheltenham and when that day came we saw the runs that season were a pointer to the run he gave at Festival.

Why isn't Fry saying BEFORE each race that RoR will need it etc.. his comments before each run were comments of confidence.

He should have lost to Darlan by quite a way, he did lost to Zark by quite a way too. Countrywide Flame was coming back to him at the death lto too.

I'm sorry but you all think because he won last year he'll put up the same performance this year, but the reality is next to no Champion Hurdlers ever do put up repeat performances.
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Feb 13 18:16
well i've never said he has been half fit. Unfit, yes. He has 8 lengths to turnaround with Zark on likely much better ground, level weights, and full fitness. 2/3 those reasons are evidential but the naysayers think the trainer is talking bullsh1t.
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Feb 13 18:17
I posed the question to Roo using his term of ''half fit''.
By:
Fabulous
When: 18 Feb 13 18:18
He was my biggest ever winner when he won CH last year, and have went in to win roughly the same amount this year, albeit at significantly shorter odds. Was very confident last year, but not quite as much just now. Not too worried about the December run at Cheltenham, but seemed clear Darlan was going to take him last time out, before his horrible fall.

Trying to keep optimistic, at least consoling myself that he won it fair and square last year. Fingers crossed
By:
CVByrne
When: 18 Feb 13 18:30
Ah I get it now..

Are there any RoR backers here who DIDN'T back him last year?
By:
penzance
When: 18 Feb 13 18:31
yes
By:
Fabulous
When: 18 Feb 13 18:32
Put my bet up on here 6 months before the race CV.
By:
CVByrne
When: 18 Feb 13 18:36
That's not what I'm asking, just want to know how many of the people arguing RoRs case did't back him last year.

Also, for those who didn't back him last year, when did they back RoR for this years race?
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Feb 13 18:41
I backed him last year but have mot mentioned it on any thread since. It means nothing.

I'd like to know why Zark backers think ROR fans are just sticking to their guns and are unflexible with the opinion? Clearly they have no concerns whatsoever off level weights and GoodToSoft ground? Nevermind Ruby scrubbing away before the last flight eh?
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Feb 13 18:41
CV,are you implying people are using pockets and loyalty to cloud their judgement??
By:
booster
When: 18 Feb 13 18:44
Sounds like last year's Hurricane Fly's backers are remembering last year's mistakes. I'm actually realistic about his chances of  winning but at least his price reflects his chance.
By:
CVByrne
When: 18 Feb 13 18:59
My view on Zark is he just does enough in front Sint, have looked at all his races and that is the opinion I get. Reminds me of Big Bucks, looks like he could be in trouble so many times but keeps finding when another horse comes up to him.

Grandouet should certainly have won the Bula, RoR and Zark went head to head a long way from hom and Grandouet was sitting ready to pounce. Once RoR cracked Grandouet came to pounce, but Zark found even more and pulled more out.

People focus on the 4lbs and the run he already had that season. But people forget that was Zarks 7th ever start and only his 6th completed race and was a 5yo. He is gonna improve for that run as much as anything.

HArdy Eustace won back to back Champion hurdles by finding truck loads for pressure. Zark would well do the same and I'd be utterly stunned if he was unplaced such is the horses honesty, tenacity and staying power. He's gobbled up the hill every time he's met it. Up there with the pace and taking it up after the 2nd last I can honestly see him winning.

The only negative I can see is how Ruby didn;t even for a second consider riding him instead of the Fly. He was staunch in his Support of Kauto and his faith was proved correct then. That'd be my only negative for Zark.
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Feb 13 19:02
Finding is one thing but when horses speed past on quick ground he'll need more than will power and tenacity. The ground will have a major say in the outcome of this race.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Feb 13 19:03
ruby would ride fly if it lost a leg mate.

never a question in the first place imo
By:
CVByrne
When: 18 Feb 13 19:03
buddeliea 18 Feb 13 18:41
CV,are you implying people are using pockets and loyalty to cloud their judgement??


I'm absolutely saying that, along with the fact people already having the horse backed rarely stray from their views. I say this as it was a huge flaw in my own betting. I have since tried to remove this intransigence and loyalty from my thinking. As such I bet more and more on betfair as it lets me reverse opinions based on evidence.


Take how bullish I've been on Boston Bob this season. I am about as bullish now about his chances as I am Aston Villa will not be relegated (Villa fan here). His 2 runs this season have been poor and Mullins has talked about him having problems etc.. which is very worrying.


We hae to be flexible. I have a big bet on Grandouet which I'm laying ever penny of off due to his missed prep. Opinions need to change on evidence.
By:
CVByrne
When: 18 Feb 13 19:05
Sint what horses will come speeding past Zark in your opinion? This field of horses look slow bar Fly/Grandouet to me.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Feb 13 19:06
absolutely,thats why i would not back ROR now,and have added Zarkandar.
i still have hope for ROR,but have definitely lost some confidence.
By:
alleged22
When: 18 Feb 13 19:08
Aston Villa  LaughLaugh although my team aint doin much better Laugh
By:
Fabulous
When: 18 Feb 13 19:11
I'm along the same lines Budd, been chipping away from last year, but stopped after Doncaster.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 18 Feb 13 19:11
ROR didnt look slow last year when he had Zarkandar behind him, he fairly sprinted up that hill.
By:
roobuck
When: 18 Feb 13 19:14
sint my point about half fit was indeed an exaggeration, I have been known to make them. My point is in relation to the handicap route you mentioned not being appropriate for the Champion. Indeed not but RoR turned up for the Gerry Fielden cherry ripe for his first run of the season and he ended up the Champion - why couldn't he do the same this year?

He then went for the Grade 1 Xmas hurdle last season and ran a terrific race, much better imo than either performance this season. If that worked last year, why different this year in not having him fit enough to race? It makes no sense to me. The conclusion I have drawn is that he simply is not in the same form. I was going to have him as a saver and tbh I still might but I will wait to the day and want decent ground and a bit more give in the price.

Call me inflexible that's fine. But watch the Bula again after the 2nd last. Ruby has been pushing ( Zark a lazy horse imo said many times )and RoR goes a little ahead. Watch Ruby, where does he look. He doesn't panic, he wants to know where Grandouet is. He knows he has plenty left.
By:
CVByrne
When: 18 Feb 13 19:19
Well you'd hardly say RoR has a turn of foot he was up with the pace and took it up then a fair way out.

I've also mentioned that you cannot for a second assume that the Zark who ran last year will be anything like the Zark that will turn up this year. Last year he missed half the season and ran in a Champion hurdle not only as a 5yo but on his 5th ever start.

People may remember me saying loud and loud that Zark had utterly no chance in hell of even placing. He was a mega place lay, 1 prep run and was coughing afterwards and goes to chelts with every stat there is to break.

He's 6yo now with his first full season behind him, he's 3/3 and looks the best he's ever been. He'll be a totally different horse to the one who ran last year. Maybe he won't win, but but he'll run his heart out and stay on up the hill like a train.
By:
booster
When: 18 Feb 13 19:25
The best trial for this race has usually been the previous year's race as it's almost always a unique test. Horses who win it easily, as was the case last year, can definitely win it again. It's really the trainer's job to get the horse there in the same form or physical condition. To this end, Fry has always remained of the same opinion, that he would be ready for the day in question. The race requires a horse who can run the course and distance in approximately 3 minutes 50 seconds and Zarkandar ran Wincanton in 3 minutes 44 seconds in November so I guess he's got the speed and nobody can question his stamina. His form in the International is excellent and, even though I've not backed him, he's got to be viewed as a big danger and will be coming to the race as an inproving 6 year old, just about ideal.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 18 Feb 13 22:57
Grandouet for me,ran well in the Bula and needed the run badly and still nearly won giving 4lbs to Zarkandar who looked very workmanlike on Saturday,Grandoeuts prep may not be ideal but still expect him in first 3,Hurricane Fly's age a slight worry,not gone mad on any of the other runners...
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 19 Feb 13 01:00
Some interesting comments. Most I'd venture done so as a result of a wager influencing their views. I'd echo the earlier comment from someone else and will firmly nail my own colours to the mast. I'll turn the race upside down for the next three weeks but I will absolutely refuse to bet on the race until I've hand timed the Supreme and got a genuine idea of how the ground is riding. If it's soft I think The Fly who doesn't particularly like Cheltenham is likely to win. The closer it is to good the more it think it brings in ROR and Grandouet.
By:
roobuck
When: 19 Feb 13 07:39
Alternatively eeternal views that have influenced wagers, or non wagers on RoR as it is for me
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Feb 13 10:35
Different this year Roo because he is the reigning champion. With that comes different responsibility, different thoughts and intentions of connections. People can say i'm pocket talking if they like but for me his form this year stacks up, 3rd in the Bula behind two very good horses, and then a 3 length defeat of a double grade 1 winner when having his prep.

Anyway, it's been a good debate. Laugh

As an outsider I have backed Steps To Freedom. He may not run but he was impressive at Dundalk on Friday and it's worth remember he is battled hardened from the flat, has course form, and was Fav for the Supreme last year. 100/1 seems worth the risk.
By:
roobuck
When: 19 Feb 13 10:53
Yes yes I get all that about being the reigning champ, different targets etc. But it worked for him being fit throughout the season culminating in the Champion itself.

That has Nicholl's stamp all over it imo and Harry wants to do it his way which I guess is fair enough. If the horse was with a trainer who had proved he could build a horse up through the season to peak at Cheltenham in the way he is trying with RoR I would perhaps see the prep differently. But he hasn't and there is a lot of unflinching faith that he will do.

Don't get wrong as I have said repeatedly I like the horse, and it will be good if a young new trainers bags a major prize. I suspect that the after race comments might be that 'he's never been quite right this season'
By:
CVByrne
When: 19 Feb 13 11:40
Think a few people forget that a reason it's hard to retain the crown is every other jocky is watching where the Champion is and mindful of how he won the year before. So tactics will be talked about to try beat him.

Always a factor imv, but rarely discussed
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Feb 13 10:24
It will be HF & Zark the ones who are being aimed at to beat imo. ROR is 3rd favourite.
By:
roobuck
When: 20 Feb 13 12:12
Exactly sint and so HF and Zark will be much closer to RoR than last year. And Zark has already eye-balled RoR once this year Wink
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 20 Feb 13 12:27
@Roobuck, yeah this would be my worry. ROR had an exceptional season up to and including cheltenham and then flattened out considerably. A punter is taking a lot on faith to assume he will return to the form he showed last year. I for one thought he was about to take a pummeling from Darlan before that terrible fall and unless its good ground again I think he will be up against it.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 20 Feb 13 12:31
At the 5th hurdle Hurricane Fly is no more than 3L down on Rock On Ruby with Zarkandar just ahead of him, Binocular is another 1L - 1 1/2L behind him. Ruby appears to be cruising on the start down the hill and close enough with Zarkandar slightly behind starting to get pushed along with Binocular still 1 - 1 1/2L behind Hurricane Fly. Fact of the matter is Rock On Ruby quickened best between the 3rd and 2nd last, Hurricane Fly started getting pushed between those hurdles and didn't quicked as Rock On Ruby did, Zarkandar got hopelessy outpaced at that stage and Binoclar like Hurricane Fly came off the bit and followed him at around the same distance. At the line Rock On Ruby was as far ahead of Hurricane Fly as he was at any stage in the race.

The race is easy to read in my opinion, Rock On Ruby travelled best, Rock on Ruby quickened best and Rock On Ruby stayed on as well as any of the others.

I saw nothing wrong with any of the other rides, whether the race pans out the same way or not this year is another thing but Rock On Ruby has not got the credit he has deserved for last years victory in my opinion.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Feb 13 12:35
The race is easy to read in my opinion, Rock On Ruby travelled best, Rock on Ruby quickened best and Rock On Ruby stayed on as well as any of the others.

Yep PF,pretty easy to read.

And you are also correct in that he has not got the credit he deserves,at least by some anyway.
By:
booster
When: 20 Feb 13 12:36
Difficult to argue with any of that analysis of last year's race, just got to get him there in the same form.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Feb 13 12:38
yeh,and that may be a tad more tricky.
Still,his trainer seems bullish.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 20 Feb 13 12:40
I'd imagine this year Zarkandar will be ridden a lot handier, probably right up there as if he is not i could envisage the same happening again down the hill [maybe not as badly outpaced though]. As for Hurricane Fly i'm not really bothered whether they ride him handier or not as unless he was below form last year as the stable seem to think [he may well have been] he will not be reversing form with Rock On Ruby on similar ground in my opinion.
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Feb 13 13:02
They may be closer Roo but i've not seen much speed from Zark on Good ground against the best. If ROR has to make the running or be prominent then the other jockeys need to be mindful not to give him too much rope. It works both ways.
By:
booster
When: 20 Feb 13 13:47
I agree that getting him there in the same form is the difficulty but don't want to see him make the running and think he'd be ideally suited to sitting a length or 2 off the lead and kicking 3 out. If anything decides to sit closer than last year then that will be unlikely to help them as they''re playing his game.
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