Simonsig Targets

going to be tough to beat anywhere hence the short price

how many serious contenders are there? 2 or 3 at most I'd say

Obviously anything can happen (see Big Bucks and Al ferof) but really barring injury, illness, a fall or plain bad luck (brought down etc) then the Arkle is his for the taking. If he turns up in good health and jumps well (and he jumped as well as any novice I've seen today - not as exuberant as Sprinter Sacre but equally not a single moment of concern).

With him being trained and ridden by the best in the buisness (imho) the chances of things going wrong are gretaly diminsihed so 2/1 seems perfectly fair to me.

Three other serious contenders at this point in Overturn, Arvika Ligeonniere and Oscars Well who have all looked good (bar one accident from Oscars Well who has had more practice since!)

Don't get me wrong - Simonsig jumped really well and looks very exciting but AL was just as impressive on his last appearance.

I'd rather wait and see how they all progress as the season goes on - all three are due to run over the next 10 days or so, maybe even Simonsig again too.

Sprinter Sacre went of at 8/11 on the day this year against 5 opponents and was available on special offer at evens on the morning of the race from Paddy P0wer so I struggle to see any upside in taking 2/1 now.

^ plus AL is scheduled to take on OW which should be informative.

Overturn has to overcome the trend of 'no winner aged 9 or older since 1963' (sic) and the 'front runner' trend too

I don't see him as a serious contender at all and have already ruled him out.

All I wanted to see today was a clear round of jumping and that's exactly what we got. He obviously beat an extremely inferior rival today in totally different conditions but we know what kind of engine he's got from his hurdling days and we know he likes Cheltenham in March. The only question was whether or not he would be as effective over larger obstacles and despite being confident he would be ok today more than confirmed that. Captain Conan has beaten most threats this side of the pond with a bit of ease and he's a likely switcher to the Jewson which tells the story about the depth of the race at the moment. Overturn is a very likeable horse as he just tries his heart out at everything he does but his age is against him & I'm confident Simonsig will beat him anyway. I think the 2 Irish horses AL & Oscars Well look the biggest dangers but I'd def side with Simonsig. Will be interesting if he lines up at Kempton tbh.

Will also add I hope those who were stating this horse couldn't jump as some sort of fact feel very foolish. I questioned it at the time but it's not at all helpful on an antepost forum where we are trying to form true opinions of horses and people talk absolute rubbish. Having an opinion is great but making statements when in fact you don't have a clue is just silly.

Agree with this mm. When both Hendo and BJG said he needed a fence, I believed them....of course an amatuer trainer and amateur rider of a very immature horse would know better.....

Overturn has to overcome the trend of 'no winner aged 9 or older since 1963' (sic) and the 'front runner' trend too

I don't see him as a serious contender at all and have already ruled him out.

Fair enough that's your prerogative.The market sees him as a serious contender.How many 9 year olds have tried? Off the top of my head Voy Por, Tidal Bay and Sprinter himself all raced prominently before recording their victories (I was there for all of them).

I respect the stats and use them myself but would not be so dogmatic as to rule Overturn out on the basis of those two three months before the race.

Simonsig was impressive but doesn't bend his back as well as Captain Conan and will need to pick up his rear end better to realise full potential.  Would much, much rather back Overturn each way for Arkle than Simonsig to win

Reaseheath

Overturn has one stat on his positive side...best hurdler 5/11 season best hurdler has won

"Simonsig was impressive but doesn't bend his back as well as Captain Conan and will need to pick up his rear end better to realise full potential"

Steeplechasing, please head to Specsavers for Christmas. The horse jumped flawlessly, and would leave Captain Slowman in his wake in the Arkle. There is a massive gulf in ability between these two horses. 5/2 in a place is more than fair IMO.

All about opinions this game, but haven't seen a horse with such a huge level of ability since, well, Sprinter Sacre. Would be extremely surprised if he doesn't stroll to victory in the Arkle. This horse has unbelievable talent.

I wouldn't eulogise over this first effort. Whilst it was a better race than the monster won first time up at Donny, it was a public school - he beat nothing, in his own time. It may well be however that he will go into the Arkle without having been tested. Hendo said he would jump better at speed and there is no doubt he would prefer quicker ground. I'm not sure there is a novice chaser in England - including Overturn - who would get him off the bridle. Will McCain take him on before Cheltenham......what do you think?

no chance! will stay away

Reading between the lines, it would appear that Hendo would have been keen enough for a campaign for the Chanpion Hurdle. It seems that BJG and the owner strongly influenced the decision to go chasing. Well done Ronnie Bartlett - in the game for the craic and steeplechasing glory. Whilst he would love to have a Champion Hurdler, it seems he would love more to have an Arkle winner.

chasing is where it's at in the NH game which is why I never understood Andy Stewart accepting keeping Big Buck's over hurdles. Will never win the GC in his life now

judo

I've met Bartlett a few times and he is an absolute gent. Incredibly down to earth for such a wealthy guy. Dyed in the wool p2p and hunting man, which is why I was convinced he would go the chasing route. This horse was over 7 on here in September (sadly not for very much) for the Arkle when there was talk of the Champion Hurdle. Some things aren't written in the form book.

indeed, always thought they would go chasing

much more fun

"Simonsig was impressive but doesn't bend his back as well as Captain Conan and will need to pick up his rear end better to realise full potential"

Steeplechasing, please head to Specsavers for Christmas. The horse jumped flawlessly, and would leave Captain Slowman in his wake in the Arkle. There is a massive gulf in ability between these two horses. 5/2 in a place is more than fair IMO.

He jumped well, I'm not arguing about that. Nor am I saying CC will beat him, only that, from what we've seen so far, CC is the better jumper imo - he is more athletic and doesn't drag his hind legs through the top in the way Simonsig did today (reminiscent of Long Run's style and a technique that can get them into trouble under pressure).

It could well be that his engine will be enough to compensate for an imperfect technique but Overturn is no slouch and jumped like a wizard at Sandown. He has strong festival form and would be my EW  choice given Simonsig's price. As you say, it's all about opinions.

very interesting....

I'll crack the jokes in regards the cutting of the horses price into 2-1 favourite for the arkle 6-4 with paddy joke bet...a joke if ever there was one in what we saw today...very funny in beating a drain a distance...both dangers fell early and the horse jumped very steeply for me early in the race...yes he jumped well but to be convinced to back at 2-1 for the arkle is ridiculous...he showed his well being yes but didn't warrant a fall scale cutting of the price...

for me there is a big angle into the race now with the hype wagon well and truly in motion

steeplechasing is spot on but am keen to get the mud lark captain conan anyways...

now is the time to get right pumped into oscars well who is a complete overlay here at 10-1

the plot thickens

why on earth would anyone dismiss a horse cos hes 9??
im pretty sure the likes of Moscow Flyer would have won the arkle at 9 if he had gone chasing a year later.
the reason the stats are against 9 yr olds is cos not many have gone for it.
to me his extra race experience does him no harm whatsoever,in fact the opposite imo,
he jumps well on what weve seen so far,and has top class hurdling form,
big player,has to be.

Harry,
it great having a hyped superstar in a novice chase,makes the prices elsewhere more generous than they should be,just love it.

if hes another Sprinter Sacre,so be it,but right now hes a once raced novice chaser,no better than 2 or 3 weve already seen.

He is ridiculously short but I wouldn't want to lay him. I'm very interested to see who takes him on in the one or more likely two races he has before the Arkle. He may well go into the Arkle without the gun having been put to his head.

If he is as good as the hype, how many times a year would he clash with Sprinter next year, given they are in same yard? Only once in March?

Steeplechasing - fair enough. Personally I didn't notice him dragging his legs through the fences but we all see things differently. Good Luck

suitably impressive exciting prospect was what i thought of that , i can well see him being as good in the arkle as his housemate sprinter sacre which could make the champion chase  and tingle creeks beyond march 2014 something to really look forward to. in racing there is nothing to quite compare with two fantastic two milers taking each other on at a blistering pace here's hoping!

yeh he did look impressive,but imo no more impressive than Overturn and Arvika were.
we will find out more in the coming weeks.

gold cup they won't ever meet... simonsig will go up in trip next year for sure..

budd agree entirely about overturn age wise and he should not be dismissed at all as is thoroughly likeable top class proper racehorse...he still needs to improve but has done his whole career and took to fences well at sandown... the ground is scuppering his preparation however and they will be desperate to get some more practice into him soon but i'm afraid there hand will be forced soon as he will need 2 more runs I would say

having watched the race 3 times now I will be very interested to see simonsig have to jump at 2 mile pace...he is no sprinter sacre who is and was as a novice a top class jumper, extremely fluent...this fellow isn't going to find life so easy at 2 mile championship pace imo

still cannot believe the price cut will be betting coupled here at these prices for the arkle which is now a top priority ante post race...

lets hope the oscar puts it up to the down in trip arvika ligeonaire who still hasn't had to go short at a fence yet but he will over the minimum trip and will be watching this race with interest as one bubble will be burst if the other wins easily...

it's called 'taking a stand for what you believe' and it's a matter of forming a betting position and as I have repeatedly explained it is a long term strategy so I will be dismissing 5yos in the Champion Hurdle, horses older than 10 in the Gold Cup and various others along the way

of course each horse in a race has a finite chance of winning

and thats fair enough Judo,nowt wrong with having your own methods,and whatever methods we use,as long as we take it when it goes wrong,then thats fine.
When you do take a stand as rigid as that,then its fair to expect debates.
And thats healthy for us all.

judo I agree with some trends as they are right for a reason as you point out...

but in regards this fellow I have spoken to a friend who does trends for a living and he told me that hardly any 9 year olds with a chance have lined up and had to go back to 1988 when danish flight won as a 9 year old...but was very clear that not many with any chance had tried so a tad of caution here pal i'd say

i am very confident in Simonsig for the arkle. i have him at 6/1 from october and feel very smug. he did remind me of sprinter sacrs with his jumping. i thought it was perfect and you could actually see him quicken about 8-10 strides fromn the fence like he was loving every second of it. the one thing he has over SS if that we know for a fact that he stays. simonsig was rated 11 lb higher that SS over hurdles and if the race works out as expected with overturn and arvika going at it up front Simonsig can just wait and take it up as far out as he wants because there is no doubt about him getting home.

giggsy,
they might be better horses than him mate,we dont know yet.

Whilst the race lost any potential real value down the back, Simonsig pulled like a train and still finished full of running. Its clear he still has the engine. He jumped with enthusiasm and he was very quick over the fences.

However I'd want to see him jumping at speed. We know he took the odd liberty at a hurdle and the way he jumped a fence, exciting as it was, could easily see him do the same in a chase that could have the obvious consequences.

No doubting his talent though. Interesting to see where they point him next

I was very taken by his performance the other day, and won like he was entitled to.

This is deja vu from last year with Sprinter, Peddlers and Al Ferof.

Peddlers was by far the highest rated hurdler, but that was because Sprinter was never allowed to fulfill his potential over hurdles.  This is the same with Simonsig; I'm sure he could acheive a rating as good as, or better than Overturn, if he was allowed to carry on over hurdles.

Simonsig is ticking all the boxes for me at the moment, apart from price.  There is a degree of hype about him, but he has proved he has the ability to back that up from last year.

chief,
you are absolutey bang on in your remarks re the hurdles ratings,although when horses that have run over hurdles at a high level it does no harm.It does give us a guide as to how classy a horse is,but the main thing for me is the fact that a horse shows he can jump fences well enough.
If a horse does that and was a classy hurdler as well,it all bodes well.
Looking at the front 4 in the betting and their respective chase performances,i honestly dont see one at around 2's and the others at much bigger prices.
More than happy with that though.

Very true Budd, that it definitely doesn't do any harm and is a good guide.

I've learnt my lesson from last year re Peddlers and Sprinter.  Peddlers was my main bet of the festival at 14/1, because I used his hurdles form as putting him miles clear of the rest.  It was only when Sprinter stuffed him, and reading posts off a few shrewdies on here, that I realised that you couldn't use Sprinter's and Al Ferof's hurdles rating too literally because they were only novices.

The only thing about the first few in the betting is that a lot of them haven't really beat anything yet.  Captian Conan and Arvika Legionniere are the only two have faced anything remotely decent.

Simonsig was 2/9, Overturn 30/100, Oscars Well 1/2, 8/11 and 8/15; so all three of them should have won as they pleased.  It won't be until some of the bigger guns meet each other that we will find anything out.  If they keep beating trees then we'll have glorified schooling sessions until the Tuesday at the festival.

Although looking forward to Avrika vs Oscarss Well (although I think one of them will end up in the Jewson with Captain Conan).

I wont be backing him for the Arkle at 2s but this horse has the sky as his limit, as I and others have been posting for more than 18 months. His engine is very rare I think and he is in the right hands to make the grade as a chaser in the long term. He jumped super for me, low and accurate. Next time out will be interesting but I sincerely hope he does contnue on the right path because IMO he can do anything i believe in the NH game. What a scopey, rangey, classy, handsome horse.

I respect Arvika strongly and Nicholls has hyped Fago but I would be against Overturn.

Arvika looks a scrappy jumper to me - of the Irish I'd prefer Oscars Well

Really liked Oscars but his last two chasing efforts have been shocking in the jumping department

Got in close to the 4th last lto but other than that went long or short when asked and really can't see what he has done wrong other than his non jump on his 2nd start myself.

Yep, I think OW jumps fine, certainly better than AL.

AL very straight backed at his fences but he was fast enough over them,Think OW needs something to tow him into the race as lto he was looking around throughout and AL can give him something to focus on and go after,Should be a informative race regarding each horses respective targets/Chances at festival glory.

In again tomorro

another schooling session tomorrow. hopefuly they all get round.

£10k waiting to back him for the Arkle on here 2.9

can see simonsig being a top priced 6/4 by end of the day

henderson says he's going to have one more run in January after today then freshen him up for March.

even money

Where are those ar*eholes who said this horse couldn't jump? Just think what he'll be like on decent ground - he would have hated this.

even money

You surprised duffy? What's going to take him on? Overturn....anything else? I don't think NJH will be worried about Overturn - in fact, they'll be grateful for the lead.

I was a little surprised at first, but when you give it a moments thought, not anymore...mccain is too scared to run his horse for one thing so I don't know if even overturn will turn up against him.

I've got 7-1 him to be undefeated for the year with Hills Bit of 5-2 for the Arkle

why are people a5seholes for having an opinion FF? How dare they, eh? He did hit hurdles, that's in the formbook.

Well said sint. The post would suggest that the best place to look for the kind of person sought is the mirror.

duffy
27 Dec 12 13:23
Joined:
28 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 7,799 | Blogger: duffy's blog
I was a little surprised at first, but when you give it a moments thought, not anymore...mccain is too scared to run his horse for one thing so I don't know if even overturn will turn up against him.





lol duffy - mccain to scared to turn up against a horse who has just won twice at 5's on...maybe he will just stay at home in his box...

shrewd trainer just waiting for better ground I'd say duffy...plenty of time before we start talking of a walkover that is for sure

hope you're right...i've got overturn in my ten to follow and i'm over 300 points so i'm just bitter and talking through my pocket....sort of, anyway, overturn is in at donny on saturday....i do think however that mccain is still wounded from what happened to peddlers at kempton a year ago yesterday.

just wants to race on better ground,but he needs to change that mindset imo.
Horse has to have a run pretty soon.

FF - I share your disdain for some of the posters and their predictions. Opinions are fine and we can all air them, but the views of some only serve to remind us that not all the nutters are locked up (sadly).

I've emailled a few bookies for prices for the King George next year.

Absolutely love this fella, and well done to those who took the bigger prices about him.  Unfortunately I never, but I simply can't see past him at this stage for the Arkle.

R carver, That's fair enough, but ff's slightly in your face comments were made in the immediate aftermath of the race whilst the adrenalin was still coursing through his veins, it was not unlike when you watch a rocky movie and then march down the street chest out wanting to beat everyone up

Paddy Power 8/1 for King George and 20/1 for next year's Gold Cup

I like the analogy Duffy! I hope FF does not live near me! I do share FFs exasperation at some posts though. Usually those starting 'whack whack'... (above and not really worth re-reading..)

I've not read the whole thread so I'm not sure if anyone has said he 'can't jump'.  I have said he certainly can jump but he does not get his back end high enough for me to be taking short odds about him in any race.  It might well be that he goes through his career without that technique causing him a major problem, but personally, I wouldn't take that chance.

Long Run has the same technique, one which catches him out mostly when he is under pressure. Simonsig has not yet faced pressure. If he can do so and come home error-free then maybe I'll reconsider.

Simonsig jumps nothing like Long Run.

why are people a5seholes for having an opinion FF? How dare they, eh? He did hit hurdles, that's in the formbook.

You're absolutely right sint. When that opinion is based on the opinion of a crap amateur jockey 2 years ago, when the horse is now trained by the most professional stable in England and both his top jockey and trainer said the horse 'needs a fence' at the end of his novice hurdle career when he was clearly good enough to contest if not win a Champion Hurdle, then I thought that was a more informed basis for forming a conclusion.

I notice the said poster(s) haven't yet been on here saying 'sorry, I was talking sh!te'. I hope I would have been man enough to do so under the same circumstances.

'Simonsig jumps nothing like Long Run'

His front end might not but his back-end is very similar

There was never a moments doubt in my mind he would jump a fence. The reason for the delay in his fencing debut was the fact he was too keen to jump the fences at home and was jumping them huge and long. They wanted to get more control before they let him go to the track. Jumping has been his game from day 1. Barry G knows a little more about the horse than most on here I would suggest. Arkle, KIng George, Gold Cup. That was the plan for Al Ferof and Simonsig is Al Ferof "with wings".

Steeple, just to be clear, I was not having a go at you, but The Inca, and I respect your view greatly.

Hayling, the yard said the reason for the delay was because he had a splint problem. Regarding his late debut, SS only made Doncaster on 09.12.11 following his wind op.

I know what they said and I know what I saw when I visited 7Barrows when he had that so called splint problem.

You watch him school Hayling?

I did. Last week in October. Was just really keen.  Absolutely flew the fences but looked reckless and slightly out of control compared to SS and Long Run who he was schooling with. Even I could see he needed to be calmed down and taught to treat the fences with more respect.

Thanks HB

I know fack all about the physical well being of horses but understand that splints are very painful and need rest. To me he jumps economically rather than exhuberant but we were spoilt last season and few jump as well as the monster.

Anyhow, he is on track now. If he stays fit and well, it is going to take an exceptional horse to deny him Arkle victory.

Wellchief - are those Paddy Power quotes the biggest prices available for the two targets. Will be biting their hand off if so. TIA

Hi Workforce,

365 wouldn't give me a price on either, but one of my mates emailled them and they quoted 10/1 for the King George.  Hills, Lads and Sid James wouldn't give me a price.

Have to admit that I took the 8's and the 20's myself, and a little nibble at Grandouet for next year's Arkle at 33's (I think he'd make a great chaser, but that's a really speculative bet).

Cheers

Thanks wellchief

See he has an entry in the QMCC! Presume this is insurance against both the monster and Finians Rainbow going wrong.

The 5k Arkle layer is takin a stand

Wow!!!! That is a huge lay. Must be a bookie??

That 5 grand @ 2.08 didn't last very long!

Even Graham Cunningham mentioned it on Sportinglife.

I wonder if its the same punter who's laying £1,200 on Sprinter at 1.55!?!

Looking at the graph i would have to say at least half of it was took if not all. I would also like to maybe say that 5k that was there was trying to keep his price inflated, i.e the bigger price simonsig is, the lower a price they can keep overturn and co at. So i am guessing it was a bookie or series of bookies. My thought that he could end up 1/3 still stands and does hold water!

Simonsig ruled out of Newbury contest

BY RODNEY MASTERS 7:45PM 7 FEB 2013

SIMONSIG, odds-on favourite for the Racing Post Arkle Trophy following two easy wins over fences, will miss the Betfair Super Saturday Chase at Newbury after a trachea wash test was marginally short of 100 per cent, trainer Nicky Henderson announced on Thursday.


Saturday's contest, registered as the Game Spirit Chase, would have played host to Simonsig facing some experienced chasers as he stepped out of novice company for the first time. However, those plans had to be shelved following the results of a routine test.

"Simonsig's trachea wash result today was 95 per cent but we'd only run if it was 100 per cent," revealed Henderson. He added: "Accordingly, we'll give him a week ticking over at home and then make a decision over whether to run before the festival."

Simonsig, a best-priced 5-6 with Coral to add the Arkle to his Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle victory at last year's festival, had been as short as 4-11 for Saturday's 2m1f contest, for which final declarations are revealed on Friday morning.

Such a shame and whilst nobody can begrudge this yard, in this week, being 100% safe, as a backer of Simonsig for the arkle, I'd really like to see him out again before the festival. 2 runs for a horse below evens is less than ideal

really wanted to see him running against experienced chasers at pace. hope he gets another run before Cheltenham.

That's the same thing that stopped bob's worth running in the argento.

i'm no expert on things like this. is this sort of issue contiguous or long lasting?

what is the shortest people think simonsig will be on the day with overturn, fago and avrika in opposition?

if he runs again before Cheltenham and wins easily (which he should) he'll b 4/7. if he doesn't he'll be 1/1 if not bigger.

hope the BHA are as generous to Henderson as they have been to Mc Caine if he asks for another novice chase to be added onto a course so Simonsig can get another run before Cheltenham.

surley Henderson wont want to run him within 3 weeks of Cheltenham. so that gives 2 weeks to get another run into him. he said that he is going to take it easy on him for a week so there is a 1 week window for him to run what races is there in the next few weeks that is suitable for him?

Arkle is 4 weeks on Tuesday giggsy. Hasn't Hendo already said that he is going straight to Cheltenham?

He said he might run him at Kempton on the 23rd....i believe.

nicolls has said that he may give Fago a run at Sandown or Kempton in 2 weeks time. hopefully see Simonsig in one of these.

The only race Henderson has mentioned is the Pendil at Kempton on 23 February. It is a Grade 2 novice chase over 2 1/2 miles. Captain Chris won it in 2011 before winning the Arkle. Nicholls has won 6 of the last 7 renewals (all bar Captain Chris) but never with anything that was an Arkle contender.

Henderson won the Pendil and then the Arkle in 1991 with Remittance Man. Would like to see Simonsig go for it - 2 runs is not a lot of experience for the Arkle - though apparently fitness wise he doesn't need it so suspect he will dodge it and make sure he gets to Cheltenham in one piece.

i'd say he's preety active at home so he should be easy to get fit. would just like to see him out again before he Arkle.

Simonsig will not be running before Cheltenham. Henderson said in the racing post when talking about Grandouet "like many of our others - Long Run, Bob's worth,Simonsig, Rolling Star, Binocular, Riverside Theatre - he will have a racecourse gallop between now and then."

A very active horse that takes no getting ready.

that's what i was thinking EKBALCO. would just have liked to see him out again to get some extra practice last week in the Game Spirit. if it is soft on the first day Overturn will have no chance and Simonsig will hack up anyway.

Must surely drift in price before the day without another run.

Simonsig will not be running before Cheltenham. Henderson said in the racing post when talking about Grandouet "like many of our others - Long Run, Bob's worth,Simonsig, Rolling Star, Binocular, Riverside Theatre - he will have a racecourse gallop between now and then."

chemical nicky strikes again