Cheltenham Festival
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Handicap plot horses chelt 2013
Handicap plot horses chelt 2013
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The hardest race to sort is the Pertemps. Most of the runners in the qualifiers are only half fit so you have to assesss them on previous form. My main criterion for the race is the ability to win over 3 miles plus. Not many horses really stay 3 miles over hurdles at a true pace.
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Cantlow is tripless, didn't stay pertemps trip last year, too slow for anything shorter at a decent level imo
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Lie Forrit will be ridden a lot closer to the pace next time out
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CheltenhamRoar
26 Nov 12 18:54 There definitly up to something with Lie Forrit He has a big Handicap in him Looked like it didnt go a yard to me on Sat...temperament regressing |
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I'm with minger. Cantlow went in the notebook with a double asterisk.
I reckon he stays alright, he was never campaigned over 2m as a hurdler, yet in his two novice chases he has been asked to whizz round the minimum trip which is totally unsuitable. Ran really well yesterday against a decent tool in Sire de Grugy and if he had been allowed by an unusually reticent AP to go on might even have won, the in running comments from RP 'stayed on quite stylishly' say it all really. I wouldn't be surprised to see him run once more at 2m then put away until the festival and chucked in the race that Hunt Ball won last season. |
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Des - I can see why some were quite taken by Cantlow's runs but that RP comment of 'stayed on quite stylishly' is absurd!
Who's doing the analysis? A teenage recruit? |
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AP had the horse in the perfect spot to kick on off the home turn and actually pulled the horse back to 3rd and let the fav get first run on him. then after they straightened up he didnt exactly get after him. if AP was trying to stop him he didnt do a very good job covering it up.
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I wouldn't be surprised to see him run once more at 2m then put away until the festival and chucked in the race that Hunt Ball won last season.
I'd be surprised by anything else! |
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Agree with Duncan. If there's any justice in the world it will get beaten in a photo finish at the festival.
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i really think people are going a bit overboard with Cantlow,i personally think he was flattered finishing as close as he did to SDG,Think it was more of SDG not doing a tap in front as oppose to Cantlow "staying on quite stylishly"
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CHELTENHAMROAR. i think its the lack of effort from the saddle that is getting people commenting.
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Ye,Nearly as bad as the Kid Cassidy farce this season
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Come on guys any updates?
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Thomas edison nap, just watch his last 2 races. !!! Never put in the race until it was to late behind beef to the heels, then kpt wide at the bk in the Ladbroke were it made a mid race move then the jockey looked after it, wait 4 the money to b down !! Reminds me of a certain alderwood
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I wouldn't usually say that Paul Nicholls plots up handicappers. He used to adopt a mentality that every horse in his stable was destined to be a Grade 1 chaser......the impact of this was often felt at the back end of the season. It's taken him years to win a Grand National..and that hardly with a plot horse.
Every now and again though circumstance will throw him a horse that can be dropped into a handicap at the Festival. The one I have an eye on for March. Sam Winner - Pertemps Final. PN would be as daft as a brush to ruin its handicap rating over the next two months......Ruby rode a fairly non Ruby sort of race at Sandown. I'd say this horse is a 150+ type sitting on a mere 140 at the moment. |
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Son Of Flicka is once again doing nothing early season,Could Donald be thinking he can strike twice ?
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I think Prospect Wells might end up in the Coral Cup, where the trip and pace they go (plus it's left handed)and decent ground (hopefully) will be right up his street.
He ran in the Long Walk Hurdle off 150 (probably didn't stay that trip in that ground but interesting he should try). Get Me Out Of Here was second in the CC off 155 last year. He was classy on the flat and was third to Darlan at Aintree and 2 1/4 lengths behind Cinders and Ashes in last year's Supreme. |
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Spirit Sun for the Pulteney Novices handicap chase. Hendo is playing with this horse. The right handed tracks and 3m miles are not his forte, but the experience and confidence will have done him the world of good. They seem to had sorted his jumping out, and he is now a well handicapped horse, ready for a big pay day.
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Whoops... I meant Spirit River!!!!!!
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Capt Conan for the Grade 2 Jewson should be snapped up now!!
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two others of JP's been strangled Alderwood + Plan A
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Jenari won some good races towards the end of last season, his jumping's been poor enough but think he could turn up at cheltenham as well
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I really like Midnight Game in either VOB or OKKoral Cup, but 149 is stiff
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Drive Time will surely end up in the OKKoral with connections involved
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I agree with the Thomas Edison vote....beat Champagne Fever on better ground that he has ran on so far this season.....ssssh ;-)
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Salden Licht - County Hurdle.
I can say no more. |
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Plus echo Anglo's comments re. Spirit River.
He is not a 3m chaser and a strong run 2.5m and better ground will suit him perfect - Yogi will be employed between now and March. |
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I see Cantlow is listed again to run on Friday.
Any thoughts as to whether there is any sort of cha |
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I see Cantlow is listed again to run on Friday.
Any thoughts as to whether there is any sort of cha |
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I see Cantlow is listed again to run on Friday.
Any thoughts as to whether there is any sort of cha |
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Apologies.
....any sort of chance it will still be rated 140 or less come March. I think that is one of the cut offs for the centenary handicap. |
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Another tailed off effort from Son Of Flicka,Lets now see if the handicapper drops him a few more pounds.
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agree with son of flicka,wont get his ground until march 13
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I wonder how far he'll drop Son of Flicka... could easily drop him back to last years mark of 135... Donald is a genius! ;)
Think he'll go for Koral Cup or Pertemps? He was left entered in both last year iirc. Battle Group another one today to finished detached, already on the same mark as his placed effort in the Koral cup 2 years ago, and his chase mark is 7lb lower than his placed effort in last years novice chase h/cap. Didn't see the race myself, did it look like they're playing the handicapper or is the horse just a bit of a rascal? |
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Dave Pipe in the RP said "Battle Group is just having a confidence booster after a heavy fall over fences and is probably h/capped up to his ability" or in layman's terms ...
 he's having a run out the back to get his mark down, but if we get pulled in we have our excuse ready and we all know the script.... |
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Pipe knows what he's doing alright! I think he's probably a few lbs well in on 137 over hurdles (certainly if you look at his 2011 form), so after today he should be nicely handicapped indeed :)
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ha, well if he's not , look out for another spin out the back soon...
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I suppose there's no harm in taking a few more lbs off his back if they want to squeeze in another run before the festival. Might be able to do away with the each way part of my punt if they get him low enough ;)
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Battle Group is a bit of a rascal but follow the money if he's punted. He's owned by the same bunch of guys that own Kazlian and he's another one to follow when the money's down
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battle group would finish 2nd in a seller and 2nd in a cheltenham race,coral cup for son of flicka,also johnjo has the nephew and mr watson that have been running on heavy ground over the wrong trip,look out for both of them in handicaps,hopefully not in the coral cup though !
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