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Cheltenham Festival

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onehundredandeighty
21 Nov 12 21:03
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Date Joined: 01 Nov 07
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Evening all,thought it's worth having a go at this again to see how our eyes and ears can maybe help us get some value on the run up to the festival.Any info welcome as are all replies....let the fun commence

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By:
BJG
When: 21 Nov 12 21:13
Kid cassidy Cool
By:
onehundredandeighty
When: 21 Nov 12 21:22
LOL BJG is that when it's not giving 15 length head starts Shocked
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 21 Nov 12 21:28
Ashkazar
By:
corporal
When: 21 Nov 12 21:51
Battle Group. Quite remarkable for some a 'complex' horse that he seems to save his best Wink for h-caps at Cheltenham and Aintree each year
By:
BJG
When: 21 Nov 12 21:55
Indeed, a few nice sighters and wins hard held in March Cool
By:
The_LUFCwaffe
When: 21 Nov 12 23:33
Kid Cassidy mentioned already....no surprise. JP is likely to be main focus of this thread. So what else has he got lurking? I'll throw in a couple yet to appear on the radar.

i) Cantlow

I'm a tad miffed that my Hennessey horse was scratched at the forfeit stage today....Malcolm Jefferson should be hauled before a Parliamentary commission to explain himself for hiding Cape Tribulation's 'cut' until yesterday, but its CT's win at Cheltenham last March which flags up as high standard form. CT has followed up at Aintree the following month and then put in boosted performance on the flat last month. Houblon des Obeaux looks a horse to follow this season too....I'm tempted to back in the RSA. But then there's Cantlow.

This horse was bought by JP once the season finished. Generally campaigned over 3m at the end of last season, the horse makes its debut in the Limerick colours over 2 miles. A sure fire way of getting a nice handicap mark without burning a horse out....lets see how Paul Webber runs the horse this winter (next entered at Lingfield 27th Nov.....again over 2 miles). I'd have the Centenary in mind for this one.


ii) Thomas Edison

Another of JP's bright ideas.

a winner at Leopardstown last Christmas.......beat Champagne Fever easily. Looks to be given a bit of exercise every now again. Most recently at Down Royal, where it enjoyed a fun run against Beef to the Heels (won again last weekend) and Slew Charm (good 3rd also at the weekend at Cheltenham. A horse that has yet to be introduced to a whip.


Both worth monitoring rather than backing for the time being.
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 22 Nov 12 03:33
corporal Joined: 23 Jan 05
Replies: 69 21 Nov 12 21:51   
Battle Group. Quite remarkable for some a 'complex' horse that he seems to save his best  for h-caps at Cheltenham and Aintree each year


Wait until the money's down. Same with Kazlian, also owned by the same people.
By:
zilzal1
When: 22 Nov 12 11:44
Battle Group snatched defeat from the jaws of victory at Aintree last year when well punted
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 22 Nov 12 12:13
True - they don't always come off, but it's as well to have an inkling for when the brakes are off
By:
Arklearkle
When: 22 Nov 12 12:17
Horses are very intelligent animals. I reckon its Cleeve hill. When some of them see it with the buds appearing on the trees they know immediately they have to run a bit faster than normal.
By:
roobuck
When: 22 Nov 12 12:28
Well like Son of Flicka who I see is going to have a nice jog round over 3 miles in unsuitable ground on Saturday.

Gotta doff your cap though, it was a peach last year
By:
zilzal1
When: 22 Nov 12 14:45
Son Of FlickaLove
By:
zilzal1
When: 22 Nov 12 14:51
Just in case im accused of aftertiming


zilzal1     13 Mar 12 13:32 
Day Two
Already had 2 Points on FINIANS RAINBOW 5-1 going to add a 1/2 Point rfc with this and WISHFUL THINKING just on the basis that these might like the spring ground more, Sizing got quite an easy time of it t in the middle section of the Champion Chase last year, the splits from jumping the 1st to jumping the second last were nearly 4 seconds slower than the Arkle

Left the bumper, Fred Winter, Neptune, Novices alone

Concentrating on the "Easy race" and going to go three handed rather than back ew (All BOG)
Already on VEILED at 20-1 for 1.5 Points

1 Point SAPHIR RIVER at 33-1 there could be a case of this one getting in lightly if the French Handicapper is right, Divapour who was entered in the 1st(only to be pulled out) was given a bha rating of 138 and yet this gets 139, whilst if the Literal french rating is correct he would have 152, who knows, but it a big price if its the latter racing which is correct

SON OF FLICKA 1/2 Point at 66-1 was runner up to Sir Des Champs in the Fred Winter last year and has now run well twice here, His mark now has been dropped and its coincided with some better ground for him to race on

6 Points up for grabs

GL ALL
By:
zilzal1
When: 22 Nov 12 14:55
As for this year id agree with FFT that on easier ground ASHKAZAR could play a big part in the Kim Muir, id expect a hurdle race around Jan to be the plan in that case
By:
liam the lips
When: 22 Nov 12 14:56
Concur with Cantlow, jumped great at Warwick, suspect the will hill to be the plan.
By:
gravy
When: 23 Nov 12 18:33
You can keep your Festival preview nights, trainer speak and everything else, this is the most informative thread of the year.
Last Festival, off the top of my head, the likes of Alfie Sherrin, Salut Flo, Alderwood and Bellvano (any link to JP there!?) were all whizzed up on here when they were at big odds.
I see Cantlow and the Kid have already been unearthed.
Brilliant work lads, I'll look forward to watching this gold mine throughout the winter and attempt to input something myself this time!
Cheers
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 23 Nov 12 18:37
That's because the Cheltenam Preview Nights are about as useful as a kick in the sack.

Fine for whetting the anticipation still further and for gathering of the clans for some craic but connections talking about their animals like they're the next incarnation of Pegasus and the focus on the 'form there for everyone to see' major races - do me a favour.

Agree with gravy - here's the place for good quality analysis, especially of the handicaps.
By:
roobuck
When: 23 Nov 12 19:18
here's the place for good quality analysis, especially of the handicaps.

Remind me not to post then Grin
By:
zilzal1
When: 23 Nov 12 19:44
Quite a few of the handicap winners seem to fit a profile of not having won before they come into the festival in the current NH season, except for lto, esp in the novice handicaps(which i usually put a line through, along with the x country)
By:
sageform
When: 23 Nov 12 20:47
Problem with plots is that there are several in every race.
By:
zilzal1
When: 23 Nov 12 20:55
True Sage, the one advantage you have at Chelt is that you are backing quality horses at good price that are almost certainly TRYING, the clues will be there, if not recently then look at the spring before and course form, esp in large fields, its a lot of hard work.

You must however stay away from short prices, ive met a lot of punters and most of the ones that make money dont do it at the front end of the market, esp at that gaff, if they do then they are next to genius status imo
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 23 Nov 12 21:02
ilzal1 22 Nov 12 14:55 
As for this year id agree with FFT that on easier ground ASHKAZAR could play a big part in the Kim Muir, id expect a hurdle race around Jan to be the plan in that case




Was thinking WH Trophy tbh Silly
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 23 Nov 12 21:09
I remember when Ashkazar made his 2nd chase appearance when he was 4th of 6, i was quite impressed by him that day, he went odds as i was trading my bet.

Wanted him to run in the paddy power ever since as off i think around 137 or near to that. Some smart horses in front of him that day and behind.

Still dont think he needs a trip, he won the kingwell.

TJ Murphy has a habit of making certain horses looking quirky imo.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 23 Nov 12 21:18
One that i have in my notebook, was looking forward to her running the girlie handicap at newbury last march but she was a non runner that day.

Cross The Flags Love
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 23 Nov 12 23:10
Good call on Battle Group. I can see he is already on a lower mark than last year. Although he looks a bit of a dog so may only collect on the place.
By:
cufcno1
When: 24 Nov 12 00:04
son of flicka wont try again until cheltenham and expect desert cry to stay over fences until the count hurdle,amazing the way he was tailed off and flew up the hill !
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 24 Nov 12 09:08
Not a cheltenham horse but i am interested to see how Mississippi Blues gets on after his 3 non jigs in novice races.
By:
sageform
When: 24 Nov 12 09:19
zilzal, you are right about favourites in handicaps but in the championship races, the best rated horse often wins. Of course some horses are being set up for one day but they can't possibly know what conditions will be on the big day so many of these plot horses get beaten. We only notice the winners. I tend to stick to horses I know-Oiseau de Nuit is a case in point. I backed him at 70 when he won the Grand Annual, backed him again last year when he fell when cantering at half way and will back him again in March if he turns up regardless of the price, opposition or weight.
By:
.Fidway.
When: 24 Nov 12 13:57
wetak for the grand annual. french trained and owned by terry neill.
By:
dj876
When: 24 Nov 12 15:48
Katkeau could be interesting if they can improve his jumping,looks to be off a fair mark and definitely has an engine.
By:
zilzal1
When: 24 Nov 12 16:39
Byrne Plate imo, although this wet weather cant last forever
By:
onehundredandeighty
When: 25 Nov 12 16:44
Be good to hear more from across the pond wether it may be promise or hype
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 26 Nov 12 18:54
There definitly up to something with Lie Forrit
He has a big Handicap in him
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 26 Nov 12 19:21
Going Wrong - interesting non-jigger on Saturday

Does Ferdy Murphy have any previous? Silly
By:
giggsy3444
When: 27 Nov 12 12:13
ok there were some winners put up on this page last season but if u had put £1 on all horses mentioned on here i would guess u would be down a couple of quid. i read the comments then decide which 1's sound like good cases put forward. i'd rather be the only 1 to blame if i back a loser.
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 27 Nov 12 14:10
^No ones asking you to back them all.
By:
Minger
When: 27 Nov 12 14:13
Cantlow ...3rd at the festivaljust been teed up again for a nice mark around Lingfield. Alfie Sherrin all over....
By:
giggsy3444
When: 27 Nov 12 14:18
CHELTENHAM ROAR. all i'm saying is that if enough horses are mentioned on here then i'm sure some of them will win. the hard part is picking the winners out of all the hunches that people post on here.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 27 Nov 12 15:24
I'll be looking at Sailors Warn again for the County (or any other major h'cap hurdle on half decent ground).

Was my biggest bet of the festival this year and he was (imo) given a shocking ride - gave loads of ground up by going widest of all and hit the front way too soon yet was still only beaten under a length.

He is a soft finisher but under the right ride he can win a big one imo.
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