Cheltenham Festival
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How can you have an ante post bet with any confidence these days?
How can you have an ante post bet with any confidence these days?
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Replies: 66
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Yeah but where is BB 6/4?
Another option is to perhaps double up with other AP bets as well as those singles. If you are that positive about BB its a way of significantly increasing your price. He comes out in less than 2 weeks, not long before the price will be odds on. 6/4 up to the festival is highly unlikely imo |
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There is going to come a time when he isnt going to show up and/or father time will catch up with him, he's actually been better value on or near the day when you think about the time lag between now and March!!
Besides, having not been to four weddings i dont fancy a short price about a possible funereal  |
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Zilzal is correct.
I'd rather take 4/6 on the day when he's fit and healthy as opposed to 11/10 now when anything could happen. |
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Dunno how anyone can get their rocks off about an ante-post bet on Big Bucks.
"Oh 6/4 is such good value". Well party on my wayward son and each to their own, but if I'm getting stuck into something this far ante-post I want to dream the dream of winning big for (relatively) little outlay. |
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6/4 is huge value imo .
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Like I said, each to their own.
Dismiss it as vulgar if you like but how much would you have on or stand to win at that price? |
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You are trying to land a treble if you bet now.
1. The horse will be fit to run in March. 2. They target the right race (I agree that it is very unlikely that Big Bucks will ever run in anything but the Stayers but you never know for sure) If he is the only viable Gold Cup horse in the yard they might be tempted. I happen to think he would beat the current lot on the bridle over fences but that is a personal opinion. 3. That he beats the opposition on the day. So if the odds are 4/6, 1/10 and 1/3, you get combined odds of 1.45/1 or 6/4 after deductions. No great value is there? |
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6/4 huge value in November?
Not for me. |
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i wouldn't dismiis anything as vulgar Roger each to their own
 but Buckster is a better 6/4 shot than United for the league imo. |
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sageform
20 Nov 12 16:55 Joined: 15 Jun 01 | Topic/replies: 2,530 | Blogger: sageform's blog You are trying to land a treble if you bet now. 1. The horse will be fit to run in March. (1/20) 2. They target the right race (1/1000) (I agree that it is very unlikely that Big Bucks will ever run in anything but the Stayers but you never know for sure) If he is the only viable Gold Cup horse in the yard they might be tempted. I happen to think he would beat the current lot on the bridle over fences but that is a personal opinion. 3. That he beats the opposition on the day. (1/5) So if the odds are 4/6, 1/10 and 1/3, you get combined odds of 1.45/1 or 6/4 after deductions. No great value is there? 1/10 the world hurdle is the target make that 1/1000 |
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unless we learn that he hasn't got bollx and he runs in the mares
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OK you can challenge my individual odds, but the true odds of him winning the race if he makes the start line are about 2/5 or 1/3 if you take 6/4 now. He was 10/11 on the day last year don't forget. The most common time for a horse to get leg problems is at the start of a new season so wait at least until he has run at Newbury.
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yes and theres a huge difference between 10-11 and 6-4!!!!
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yeh,best part of 4 months.
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balls deep buddeliea i am
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Really?
well hes pretty reliable,i mean he turns up in march year after year,and whens he ever been injured?? 4 months though mate!! |
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agreed. As slippy blue says on the chit chat forum 'i love the buzz'
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My point exactly!
I love the buzz (of ante-post betting). I just can't get horned up about 6/4, but fair fks to anyone who can and who has the wallet to make 4 months of tension worthwhile. |
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as i said in my post roger its not my kind of bet as i dont get involved with short prices, i tend to try to 2nd guess what connections may have in mind and try to find big priced ante post selections who i think have a decent chance of contesting big races months before the event ! but some punters do like the shorter priced " sexy horses" and big bucks is a good example of that type of bet.
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yeh to me antepost is all about trying to get nice prices about horses that will end up a lot shorter on the day,and trying to 2nd guess trainers,which is never easy,but fun.
you always win some and lose some,but i do it every year and always seems worth it come March. Normally it involves horses at least in double figures,some treble on the odd occasion,but never as short as 6/4!! Each to their own though of course. |
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The Thursday in particular has some bad races nowadays
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exactly budd i can see Bucks 1/3 on the day
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no chance of bb 1/3
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as i say lads not my kind of bet but the opposition is looking thin on the ground voler la v hardly enhanced her claims the other day ,oscar whiskey a likely nonner wher is the competition ?
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1/3 on the day opposition awful.
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il bet you a drink of your choice on the day....its the same every year
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yeh i agree,he turns up hes the shortest prive hes ever been for the race,it looks dire at the moment.
Wont bother at all with the race is my thinking right now,give me more time to concentrate on other more interesting races. |