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Who wins the Paddy Power Gentlemen?

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By:
judorick
When: 13 Nov 12 21:31
so you don't pay attention to trainers records when punting then? or is it only that Nicholls is a powerful trainer that we should ignore his record in the race?
By:
strontium
When: 13 Nov 12 21:35
I think it's worth noting if a stable has a particularly good record in a race (e.g. you'd take a second look at whatever Pipe runs in this). You can also take race record as a negative from a small-medium yard. However the fact Nicholls hasn't won this is far more likely to be a statistical abberation than any real failing. He hadn't won the National or Champion Hurdle either 8 months ago, and his horses win decent handicaps all over the place at this stage of the season (if not the Festival when they do tend to be poorly handicapped imo).
By:
Howdi
When: 13 Nov 12 22:02
of course I do but this is Paul Nicholls - lies, damm lies and statistics.
By:
Howdi
When: 13 Nov 12 22:04
Bit like saying saying your best looking mate never pulls on a friday when he has shagg ed four times as many birds as you - it can't keep happening if he's better looking than the rest of you....if you know what I mean Laugh
By:
Howdi
When: 13 Nov 12 22:05
and Granit Jack was hosing up when he was tragically killed. (and he was good looking)
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 13 Nov 12 22:34
Judo

I know you have been totally consistent about AF and his inability to post quick times over fences. However, he was 2nd favourite for the Arkle and has a line of form through FNS and Cue Card that would indicate that he is smart. I fancied Cue Card for this race off 157?, so it would be illogical for me to dismiss AF off 159?

I'll be watching, not playing.
By:
wellchief
When: 13 Nov 12 22:46
If Al Ferof can run like he did at the beginning of last year then he has a huge chance.  I too thought he was too high in the weights, but as Festivalfanatic has said, his mark now does look workable after FNS and Cue Card's performances.

However, if he runs like he did at Cheltenham or Aintree then I don't think he has much of a chance as he very much had a season of two halves.

I personally wouldn't have started him in a big handicap, but Nicholls knows a lot more than me.  To me it looks like they need to get AF's confidence back, and a nice little eye opener to the season would have suited.
By:
strontium
When: 13 Nov 12 22:49
Nicholls record in the PP is OK anyway. Poquelin was only beaten by a mudlark in unfavourable conditions a couple of years ago.
By:
buddeliea
When: 14 Nov 12 08:01
He was running a big race at Cheltenham chief,and that mistake would have prevented ANY horse from winning.

As for him being slow,simply laughable.
He won what turned out to be a real good supreme hurdle,and has since won good 2m chases.
FNS has come out and ran well.He werent far behind the top 2milers in his prep race for the Arkle.
Hes made one mistake in his chasing career,ending all chance of winning,and that race should not be where he is judged,anyone that does is shortsighted and extremely harsh.
Aintree as ive said many times could be the Aintree after Chelt factor,or the mistake has left a mark.
We shall find out soon.
If hes ok i expect him to be contesting the top races over 2and half to 3 plus.
By:
Glossy
When: 15 Nov 12 21:52
There was me thinking I had this race down to 4 but the horse Quantitativeeasing keeps creeping back into my head today.  I realise he's carrying enough weight but that course record is superb, goes well fresh and is very attractive at 20/1. Anyone know whether McCoy will be on this or NDLV?
By:
tomdeane
When: 15 Nov 12 22:05
I expect Grands Crus to win this but think the one that is slipping under the radar of most people (some have mentioned him on here) is Divers.

If the ground is decent he can play a major role, running off the lowest mark for some time and with Timmy Murphy the perfect partner. He needs to be waited with and not hassled throughout the race as his jumping usually takes time to come together and he can hit a flat spot. With a pilot that knows exactly how to ride like that, and how to ride Cheltenham, he looks way too big at 16s. I's be surprised if he's out of the first four.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 15 Nov 12 22:21
I'm backing Divers e/w on decent ground or Quanti e/w if it comes up soft. Just hope prices don't contract too much before the day.
By:
strontium
When: 15 Nov 12 22:42
I hate these horses that go 00F0PP0001 with the 1 in a top race. It makes a mockery of the sport. I'm happy not to back them and if they pop up so be it.
By:
tomdeane
When: 15 Nov 12 23:20
I know what you mean but this one (horse and trainer) is easier to spot than some of the real p**stakers. Always disappoints massively first time out but when fit he always runs well in these races on decent ground. Could well have won this 12 months ago on better ground and racing off this 6lb lower mark.
By:
cufcno1
When: 16 Nov 12 00:14
walkon wont be far away with that weight,right profile just hope his jumping holds together
By:
resner not lesnar
When: 17 Nov 12 14:47
Well on the face of that I have to say it looks like I've got it wrong with Grands Crus. Very similar performance to the RSA. Budd I know you're a big fan of Al Ferof he did you proud there travelled brilliantly.
By:
wellchief
When: 17 Nov 12 14:49
Cracking performance.  He travelled so much better than anything else, and pinged the last in horrible ground.

I hope his biggest fan (we all know who he is) backed him today.

If Grands Crus had something to prove beforehand, he definitely does now.

Onwards and upwards for this years second season chasers - looks as good a crop as we've seen for a while
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 17 Nov 12 14:50
Yeah I got it totally wrong with Grand Crus, got the race wrong altogether in fact. I guess the fav is worth another go when back on better ground but guess he'll be under priced.
By:
Fabulous
When: 17 Nov 12 14:55
GCW, I was with you with QE & POQ, couldn't have got it more wrong myself Cry
By:
strontium
When: 17 Nov 12 16:15
Any thoughts on that Judorick?
By:
buddeliea
When: 17 Nov 12 16:38
Just so good to see a horse that finished the season like he did,come out the following season and show hes much better than that,and it was so wrong for people to judge him by that,in particular the Arkle.

Just a small wager lads,but for me it was really all about watching him and seeing how he ran.

Good,was'nt he.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 17 Nov 12 18:25
What a brilliant round of jumping, that jump 4 out was breathtaking Happy
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 17 Nov 12 19:29
well done ibrahim hope you had enough on . i am biased but  after bwinning such a competetive race off that mark he must have a shot at the gold cup ,the course is made for him and he should improve a good few pounds for that ,plus the extra distance of the gold cup should hold no fears and he is without doubt a genuine contender who jumps travels and battles ,what more can you ask for .
By:
Howdi
When: 17 Nov 12 19:33
howdi hits the crossbar my fav horse or one of them beats him Cry
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 17 Nov 12 21:33
Great effort from AF in horrible ground....wouldn't have made carrying a big weight any easier. That Lomg Run failed to win this race off a lower mark just emphasises waht a good effort it was. Collateral novice chase form for AF, Cue Card, FNS shows just how smart Sprinter Sacre really is.
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