Grands Crus seems like he might be the most divisive horse in the game at the moment.

I am fully on his side but understand why people are questioning him, The RSA was disappointing but his Feltham win was up there with the best novice chase performances I have seen.

I think it's easy to forgive a bad run because all good horses can have bad days, but average horses tend not to have great ones. He's already shown on more than one occasion that he could be a top-notcher.

couldn't he just ff

Poquelin has run in the last 3 renewals.

Might be trying to get his rating up if Poquelin is to run!

GCW

If you had to bet your life on the outcome of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, then you probably wouldn't live very long. As a betting proposition, i'll probably leave it alone. My observations as you rightly say are guesswork but I try to look beyond the bare facts of the form for these kind of races. On what paper appears the best handicapped horse rarely wins.

My shortlist consists of:

Al Ferof
Champion Court
Grands Crus
Menorah
Quantitativeeasing

Champion Court not a certain runner but would merit respect if showing up as he seems a consistent type and looks like he'll be suited by this trip around Cheltenham. Al Ferof is more about untapped potential, but might have  abit too much to carry. Grands Crus could be very well in off this mark, but then again many thought that about Long Run a couple of seasons ago. Menorah entered in Haldon Gold Cup, so unsure what the plans are regarding that one. Quantitativeeasing ticks all the right boxes, course & distance form, but has to bounce back to best to win.

It's all a bit murky at present but will hopefully beacome a little clearer over the next week.

I'll throw in Hunt Ball too. Mightily impressed by his progression last season, and impressive off top weight over near enough course and distance at the Festival in March. Could still be on the upgrade. The only reason he didn't make the top 5 originally was he'd had one too many chase starts according to the trends. If you can look beyond that, then he'd have a very strong claim.

Well, race normally won by horse in first 4 in the betting, so covering my bases Howdi.

jOCI

cHUCK IN THE SEVENTH AND EIGHTH IN THE BETTING & THEN ANNOUNCE ITS YOUR NAP.

True, but arguably an unbackable price in such a competetive handicap?

Joci - I really can't make up my mind about Hunt Ball. He improved so much last season who knows where it will end (or ended). He could have been found out at Aintree but on the other hand he raced so much that could just reflect the end of a long season. I'm not overly impressed by the form of his Festival win which has looked weak, although he did it very well. He must be a contender in the PP for his C&D form and potential improvement, but again the price is unattractive. I also find it hard to believe he's better than Grands Crus and they have similar marks - but that may be just prejudice. The other things that puzzles me about HB is how on earth did he get beaten off 109ish in mid-season? I guess if you do fancy him now is the time to bet - he's such a hype horse he may be a shortish 2nd favourite on the day.

That defeat was blamed on the heavy ground according to the trainer.

Ben - OK, but you'd expect a 160 quality horse to win a low grade handicap off 109 if it had to swim.

GCW - he was electric in his first run last season. Pipe won't run him half cooked in the Paddy Power. If they want to give him a run at less than full fitness with other targets in mind I think they'll go the betfair route.

This is the pipes meeting and the pipes race, with the big question mark hanging over the horse with regards to the gold cup, this race becomes a major target for the season, you suspect that the stable think that he's very well handicapped off 158 and i can't believe that they'd want to let slip the chance to win the PP in particular off that mark, he's a buzzy horse and first time up over 2.5 is right up his street i would have thought.

I suspect NJH is going to annexe this race, I am waiting for 5 day decs before getting involved

I have finally found my selection, Al Ferof.

I always look at this race and try to find a horse that could run in the King George or the Gold Cup in the future and Al ferof is entered in the KG.

Al Ferof has course form and won the supreme novice at the festival beating some good horses in the process and then finished 4th in the arkle after making a terrible mistake, he was jumping very well up to that mistake and still managed to jump the rest of fences well.

As a novice he ran in the Victor Chandler chase, on first impression it didnt seem that good but with Finian's Rainbow going onto win the champion chase and then at aintree the form is very strong and for a novice it is well above average.

I think we can forgive AL Ferof's run at aintree after a long season.

Sonko-watched that Arkle again earlier, and he was beaten too far for it to have just been that mistake.

I just think he's a solid yardstick without being anything special. Having said that, you arguably have to respect anything that has winning form around Cheltenham, and at the Festival, so wouldn't rule him out completely.

The more and more I look at this race I just can't see beyond Grand Crus. I like Walkon but is too short for me now - I'd be wanting 12's on his chances.

Of the others, only Divers and maybe Forpadydeplasterer interest me at the prices.

I basically agree with you Glossy, though I may have a little on Nadiya de la Vega on the day if she looks well.

yes I am in the 'struggling to get the fav beat, but don't want to back it' camp too

have not had a bet but will be cheering on Walkon for Harry who got on at good odds

well that was only to support my main thesis which is that the horse is slow

but Nicholls has never won the race despite having run several that went off as strong favs

a