Supreme Novices

Any news on what the possible Irish contenders may due come March time,they have a decent record in this and altho i aint considering backing anything yet,it would be good to know who could be unearthing talent over the pond for watching briefs on the lead up.

ps...i dont watch underpants i just couldnt think of the turn of phrase

Spirit of Shankly will take high rank amongst the novices this year ....been most impressive in bumpers

Spirit of Shankly has first run over hurdles in the 3.20 at Kempton today.

as is normal i don't agree with sintonian...

i feel dodging bullets is a grade 1 horse and is worth a small poke here at 16's...

4th in the triumph which i thought was one of the best run in recent years when caught out wide and racing quite freely on only is second run over hurdles was a very commendable effort and came to have every chance at the last...racing to freely out wide and inexperience done for him on the run in but it was an effort full of promise...he got murdered at aintree and i'm happy to line through that...

he came out the other day and although i felt the race fell in his lap it was a nice performance extending out well on the run in on his first start back...a bigger field and stronger pace to run at will suit this horse and he looks open to a lot more improvement this season and he will take high rank come the festival imo....tough from the flat and a decent education as a juvenile will stand this horse in good stead...

there is a long way to go but he is worth a small poke at the 16's....next friday will tell us more but if the trainer can teach him to settle more there is a lot more to come imo and this tough individual from the flat can pick up the progressive profile shown there and take high rank in the novice hurdle division....he is very likeable imo

alright Harry! long time no hear

Looking forward to Monday night then? Should be good

hey judo hope your well...

yes am looking forward to it...took a little bit of a hit on the djoker this year he just hasn't been there so have had a break from tennis punting while the dust settles muggray cost me 250 to a friend who i said would never win a major djoker not been there this season for me but he is turning the corner but no investment till he really finds his feet...

have been deep in the form book 12 hours a day sad i know but needed too as this year has been a wash out punting but we are fighting back and the last 7 weeks have been really good especially the breeders cup who the bookies made a serious overlay on wise dan and a couple of others although got me pants pulled down on questing who was lame before entering the gate (disgusting drift) still...so that was good...

am more interested in the all weather at the moment as jumpers are tricky for me no matter how many hours i put in...

hows things with you?

ahh great mate, been doing well on the laying side myself

haha also took a hit when Muzza won the USO but overall he's been good to me

Love the jumps season and already made more money backing (Aintree, Wetherby, Sandown, Wincanton, Kelso, Uttox) than the whole of the flat. Will be in here much more now the real racing has started but it's such a shame we only get quality on a Saturday now and it's a race every 5 mins. Ho hum

Want to see a Muzz-Novak final for sure

yeah can tell your more a jump man...i'm the other way to be honest but love the jumpers too but find it harder so am evaluating my strategy for the season ahead

yes do most of my playing in the place market but no poppy was a very nice result at lingfield in the week and had a kirby horse at 32's for small stakes which won like a 3's on shot but didn't find it till 2 minutes before the off which was a shame...

well have watched a little and would fancy djoker to beat muzza here but has got more difficult to get the goat beaten recently and they are having some great battles but fed might have something to say...shame rafa hasn't been around he is missed on the tour...

whats your honest opinion on walkon's chances in next weeks paddy chase?? don't beat around the bush...i have invested but am happy to say if i'm wrong...handicaps are more my thing...any opinion

Been studying the race for a week trying to get a handle on the Cue Card/ For Non Stop/ Michael Flips form and Walkon is included in that calculation. The only two concerns I have are the going and it's effect on his jumping. Feeling that he would prefer some cut to slow the field down so he can jump more fluently than say at Newbury in the CC race where he blundered from fence to fence. If you have a big enough price I wouldn't say no for sure. Trainer had Il Duce placed in the race at 50/1 so he can do it. On the trends he is about 3lb lower in the handicap than the usual range. What price you got?

fair comments...

just have some 18's and 14's pal...I just think he is now a horse to catch fresh as his record indicates...i thought he bounced at newbury and was never really going...just thought he was chucked in here off of 143 and if he's fresh and well i think he is capable of running in the late 50's...there is a huge amount of not well handicapped animals here for me and his record round here is pretty good with close examination my main concern is does he need further....

his jumping agree needs some inspection but first time at exeter he jumped like a buck of course that isn't cheltenham but he ran well for a long way in the rsa for me but just feel he needs to be caught fresh and the handicapper has given him every chance...like any winner of the paddy race they will need to jump well but if he does this is a handicap and for me he is the best handicapped in this...my main concern is the distance but he will be staying on strong if his jumping holds up...trainer in smashing form

who do you fancy and what your trends saying....good course form is important when i looked and no more than about 8-10 career starts over fences unless trained by the pipes of course

I will let you know my thinking closer to the race Harry mate, want to see the final decs - unfortunately some of the possible outsiders that could run big are not big enough prices for me to consider (like Michael Flips and yours, I would want 25+ to back them)

the good thing is he is a proper Gr1 horse on his best day so if he is on a going day he could run big - the price is only fair though

fair play pal...not keen on the exposed michael flips myself although he may surprise...let me know what you come up with

just looking to squeeze some value out of the market, as you say there are lots of badly handicapped horses in the race. Michael Flips is nowhere near a big enough price to make up for his shortcomings so I won't be on him. The others I have considered are Nadiya de la Vega and Quntitativeeasing (but only if Geraghty rides. Looking increasingly tough to get the fav beat but I won't be betting him at the price for sure. Pretty tough stuff - you could be on to something with yours

yeh very tough judo and the favourite is a worthy one for sure but skinny for sure...as is always the case with these type of races that are pinpointed by punters the thieves suck every last piece of value out of them which makes it tough to get involved and eek any value...interesting race though...i thought quantiveesing was interesting but didn't look especially well handicapped although i thought the run against your horse medermit and the dartnall nag was top class handicapping form from last season

Not sure about this year's Supreme, but Sizing Rio looks like a monster who would laugh at fences next year.

yes harry that spinal research race is top class form indeed and has provided the winner of this

anyway catch up soon

I'm with Sint and can't have Dodging Bullets for this - maybe the Coral Cup or County Hurdle.

He's entered for the novice hurdle on Friday along with plenty of other nice types so we could know one way of the other before the weekend.

Guess we'll know more after tomorrow but will anyone put me off having a small stake on Court Minstrel for the Supreme?

I think he is nice BBF but would not be surprised if he arrived in something like the County. He will at this stage be generally over priced with connections, but suspect he is not going to be good enough to win the Supreme (some will say how can he reverse form with Tistory?)

Court Minstrel looked a shade unlucky today BBF and could turn out to be the best of those that ran - which would perhaps put him in the picture for the SNH. Nonetheless, I'm sure connections of a few of the others would feel that the race could've panned out better for them, not least the winner.
Court Minstrel - it's name sounds like it is going right to the top!

As I've said above, the winner of the Sharp Novices Hurdle today has a terrible record in the Supreme.  Recent winners Steps to Freedom, Cue Card, Loosen my Load, Golan Way, I'msingingtheblues, Moon Over Miami etc all were either unplaced or didn't run in the Supreme.  As a backer of Dodging Bullets, that makes me a bit concerned, but if he is to run in the Christmas Hurdle and runs into a place, that would be some top notch form heading into a Supreme.

After the race last year the bookies went 10/1 Steps to Freedom and Prospect Wells 14/1.

I hope Dodging Bullets doesn't turn out to be another Nicholls one who looks good in early season hurdles and then fades, like a Sam Winner or Hinterland, but I thought that was satisfactory today, despite the muddling pace.  True, the runner up was thrown in the deep end having his first hurdle race a G2, and I expect him to come on a lot, DB was giving him 7lbs, and he is still a 4 year old himself.

I think you can rule out handicaps at the Festival because he's already rated 150, which would put him near to, or top weight in the County Hurdle.

Gr8 post well chief ty

I have backed db for the snh but not overly convinced by today or Ruby's honest comments after

The two I like for this at the moment are two yet to see a hurdle in public: Snake Eyes and Un Atout, both 33/1.

What about Tistory. ?

Slabster, why do you like these?

Hi Maam,

Un Atout looked an absolute beast when demolishing a poor field in his only bumper and I really liked the way he went about his business. He looked like a potential star that day and I'm hoping he'll go to the top. I'm a big fan of his sire Robin Des Champs too, and this fella seems in the same mold as that sire's other son, Sir Des Champs.

Snake Eyes really should have hacked up in the big sales bumper at Fairyhouse. Quite frankly, he was given a shocking ride. 3 or 4 wide the whole way round, he pulled for his head early and was then rushed into the lead on the home turn. He sprinted clear before a combination of greenness, weakness and inexperience cost him but he didn't fold completely to stay on in 3rd. The winner has won a hurdle race with ease since and I think Snake Eyes could be special. Given a good ride I think he would have won with ease.

Sounds good to me mate! Are they likely to line up though? What do you think of Minsk?

Hasn t Un Atout died?

My mistake Ut De Sivola. Apologies

Whether they line up is anybodies guess! Mullins and Henderson are sure to make up their minds soon though eh?

Court Minstrel is still a big price, would be 25/1 tops if with a more fashionable stable. My only worry is that he won't be aimed at the race

Ned Buntline is entered in a hurdle races on Saturday (and is also entered in a Grade 1 in a fortnight) - looked seriously smart in his two bumpers and is said to have jumped really  well at home.

Here's the write up after his last win:

Trainer Noel Meade completed a double at Naas today when his Ned Buntline landed a huge short-priced gamble to impressively win the concluding Go Racing In Kildare Membership 2013 Bumper. The son of Refuse To Bend was backed off the boards (from 11/10 in the morning, and from 1/2 into 1/3f on track) and was ridden patiently by Nina Carberry. Ned Buntline was not remotely pressurised when moving to challenge a furlong out and soon quickened well clear of Milan Bound for a five and a half lengths win.

Meade's body language on greeting the winner gave away some of his admiration for the gelding and he later said “he's a good horse – the best we've had or a while.

“Nina said he had a bit of a blow there but he has never really come off the bridle at home. He's twice the horse now, compared to last year, and has filled out since the spring.

“I'll have to talk to J.P. (McManus, owner) and Frank (Berry, Racing Manager) but I'd prefer to go jumping with him next.

Originally thought they would save him for the Cheltenham bumper (though McManus has Regal Encore pencilled for that) so he must be showing all the right signs. I've just snaffled the 55 on here.

bluebirdfan






21 Nov 12 10:34
Joined:


07 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 833 | Blogger: bluebirdfan's blog



Court Minstrel is still a big price, would be 25/1 tops if with a more fashionable stable. My only worry is that he won't be aimed at the race

that could be a slight concern bluebird

Still havent seen anything to trouble the beast that is Waaheb myself.

^^^ what basedon one run against inferior opposition

anyone like my tent or yours...i know geraghty does

I do as well, will wait to back him until we know more about his next target. Got a very good write up in the Stable Tour.

Would need to see him run in either a strongly run race or see if still pulls in a slower one next time before making a decent bet. If he doesn't learn to settle he'll have no chance

Like that from Puffin Billy today,hopefully will settle better as the season goes,but despite not settling early on,he jumped pretty well and won going away.
Impressed.

Have you not seen his bumper form Howdi?

And DK is wetting himself at how good this horse could be.

It would concern me that Waaheb seems a bit fragile and I'm lost for reasons as to why he isn't in the Royal Bond this weekend, does anyone know?

Having looked at some quotes after his comeback, Weld says they're in no hurry and will wait until Christmas. Fair enough!

Was surprised a bit myself Joist. But  think he is trying a slightly different approach with his best horses. His Heltenham record is poor and is something I think he wants to improve. So will be looking to run potential Vheltenham horses a bit less early in the season, so they can have the best chance come March.

Agree he was a bit wild to begin with budd, but did you see how quickly he relaxed after the first? I thought it was Derren Brown on board. Augurs well.

it does indeed and nice he aint in a fashionable yard,still a nice price and probably would not be if he were.
Aint seen a better nov hurdler thus far imo

Ned Buntline

I'm starting to convince myself that Waaheb is a really fair price at 14.5. Then I have to remind myself that it's only just December

Joist
01 Dec 12 12:34

Ned Buntline


Another dream over for me.

triumph hurdle form franked again

Makes dodging bullets look very solid. Can also pretty much rule out C&A and Darlan for CH

Not sure I'd go as far as ruling out C&A and especially Darlan.

I expect one of the old guard will win the CH rather than one of last years novices/juveniles.

JEzki

31 Oct 2012 18:41        Supreme Novices' Hurdle    Outright Ante Post, Jezki, 40/1
Single £10.00 E/W (Pot. Ret. £520.00)    Open    Open

Only 10 e/w with stan nothing mad but nice at 40-1

Jezki links in to Ned Buntline which is one of the reasons I recommended NB.

Would like to know what Meade / Carberry had to say after yesterdays run?

Regarding his earlier beaten favourite and hugely touted Ned Buntline, in the opening maiden hurdle, the former Champion Trainer stated “I'm still in a state of shock over Ned Buntline. He didn't travel through the race and only jumped adequately without being good.

“Maybe two and a quarter miles is a factor but at home there isn't anything that would live with him. We had him scoped and everything was alright.”

looks a chaser to me, tall horse, jumps large?

I agree he jumped big and a bit clumsily, but they crawled for most of the race so not sure why 2m2f on a relatively easy track should have been an issue.

Jezki is still a big price on here. Shocked that Ned Buntline didn't win

Just watched Jezki's win yetserday - did it well enough but didn't scream 'Supreme Novices winner' to me. I'd say about 14/1 is right.

Dodging Bullets still a massive 16/1 for this.

Travelled better then anything in the Triumph Hurdle which looks like being very good form, wind op since as Nicholls felt that was the reason he didn't bound up the hill in March he has 4 lengths to find with Countrywide Flame from that race tomorrow be interesting to see had he fairs, one things for sure if there is pace he will travel as good as anything, if he had can get in the first 4 of this lot tomorrow that proves he's got the class for a Supreme.

All is not lost uncle, Ned won well today with the right horses behind him clear of the rest

Yep - that was much more like it.

He is a typical Meade/Carberry type - travels like the wrath of God but has a highish head carriage and finds little under pressure. Didn't stop Go Native winning a Supreme so the antepost slip is being selotaped back together after today's win.

Dodging Bullets was the most unsuited by that he pulled his head for the first mile and still came 3rd

River boosted the form in the first too but still the bookies don't think he's the real deal

The pace of the Supreme is what this horse is crying out for.

Jezki was hugely impressive today, reminded me of when Hurricane Fly won this race from Go Native a few years ago. The 8/1 with Ladbrokes looks very fair from a trading perspective because unless he gets beat, or only scapes home, if he runs in the Delloite, then being an Irish Banker in the first race of the meeting I can see him going off very short, especially if Puffin Billy goes to the Neptune.

Still hopeful that Ned Buntline can give him a race as they have plenty of formlines that tie in and Ned can surely only get better with more experience. But in all honesty if they go to the last together then up the Cheltenham hill I'd expect Jezki to have too many guns for Ned.

Should also say that Waheeb ran really well, but his jumping was very novicey and will need to improve if he is to have any hope of turning the tables.

Jezki

A real carcrash of a Supreme Novices' book for me with Ned Buntline, Waaheb, and Minsk! I've traded out everything possible for a moderate red and will be starting again.

Frustrating thing is, my first decent bet was a tossup between Minsk and Jezki before they ran against each other, shrewdie

Jezki seriously impressive today. Quite how Laddies have him the same price as River Maigue is beyond me

Jezki must start favourite in this. The race was run at a cracking pace, as you will get at the festival and he finished in a manner that indicates he won't have any problem getting up the hill. He simply destroyed the opposition. With Your Tent or Mine failing to get home, the list of potential winners is shrinking.

Geraghty sounded confident of turning the tables on Dodging Bullets if they were to meet again, DB not far behind co fav for champion hurdle Darlan at Kempton. River Maigue quite rightly near the fore front of the betting imo.

River M is the value at the moment certainly. Hopefully Jezki will win again next time out and get there fit and well. Is it too much to dream of that Court Minstrel wins this weekend

pique sous interests me in this.there waiting for better ground for him to re appear. also a fan of court minstrel would like to see him go for county hurdle tho would suit down to ground imo.thoughts?

can anyone tell me if whistling gallery is going to be aimed at the supreme

Sorry meant whispering gallery any info welcome

like nicholls said dodging bullets straight to the festival... as isn't among the entries for the dovecote

Nice to see some blue on oddschecker at long last for Dodging Bullets today. The fact he stayed 14/1 for so long was very surprising to me.

Interesting CCM that it was Ladbrokes who were hanging out for the longest. He has been less than 14's with everyone else for some time.

Yeah and laddies are 1/5th odds a place the tinkers! (or were)

Definitely ff.... They are not longest anymore though, so have presumably taken a good few quid!

and wont be paying any of it out

They were stand out MTOY, 20s when everyone was 14s and 12s,  they were laying 14s for agers when he was as short as 8/1 with quite a few firms. They're odds compilers need shooting.

Been doing this race today and my conclusion is that the value is 10/1 Melodic Rendezvous based on trends and key trial races.

MTOY clearly to be feared on the Betfair form if you think how GMOOH went in Menorahs Supreme Hurdle after running in the same race off a stone (or so) lower. But I've totally missed the price and 13/8 is no use to me now.

Jezki has to overcome not having a prep run and that has stopped plenty of good horses and this is very very hot.

Pique Sous is my idea of a slightly longer priced danger as if he had had one more decent run in a good trial race (and won it) he would be much shorter.

Melodic for me each way 10/1 looks solid and sure to get a run for the money. Has never been outside the first two in 6 runs lifetime

More blue for Dodging Bullets today. Is he getting pricewised soon?!

no catch me another tipping line put it up yesterday...it isn't pricewise i can assure you of that

Ok cheers

got norfolk and chance imo

Judo. Whilst stats and trends are very useful, I personally think people can get too wrapped up in them. Will be very interesting to look back on them after this years meet imo! Bound to be a few races where the winner didnt fit.

Paul Nicholls knows more than most of us and the fact this is his number one candidate and will be the choice of Ruby Walsh means I am happy to ignore the fact he doesnt fit the trends I just cant have him out of the frame.

fair enough, think there are quite a few classy and faster than him that fit the profile and have better form. Be amazed if he is anywhere near the front unless it is a crawl

Is he definitely the choice of Ruby? I keep hearing he will ride Pique Sous

he would be well advised if he does! might have to get him onside as he is my third choice for the race (PS) and will much shorter if Ruby rides

Think PS has better claims than DB too but would b shocked if Ruby rode tbh

1.01 to ride DB imo

I am starting to cool on Dodging Bullets now - all because I read an article that said flat breds have a bad record recently due to the introduction of the watered ground policy.

Not the worst 14/1 shot I'll ever back but confidence is waning...

don't see he has any prospect of beating the likes of MTOY for a start, flat bred, had two seasons and 6 races over hurdles but only won two of them looks a lot to ask to win a really fierce race off a profile like that

amazing ming how people have different opinions because my confidence is growing in the horse just hope for good ground for the horse...his experience will be vital for me and still has scope for improvement...trainer very pleased with the horse by all accounts

his experience would be useful if he had won the majority of his races, never ran a fast time on my ratings, flat bred, the going is likely to be on the soft side on the first day (rain forecast, see the metcheck thread) and I just can't have him

These tip lines are for fools. Who cares who puts it up on the blower or some website. Paul Nicholls is the horses mouth as far as DB goes, and he thinks it has its chances. All they are doing is what anyone else can do, read trainer comments which have been available for some time. I don't know why anyone would want to pay for that sort of 'tip'.

Nicholls put DB as his £100 ew charity bet at Exeter preview last week if that's anything to go by.Best price 10's now btw.been backed this week.

Just looked at betting on Oddschecker, noticed PatrickPower prices slashed on every horse barr MTOY, something going on?

Because Melodic Rendezvous is out?

No, something else

Cheltenian is big at 33/1 with Victor Swindler - a classy horse that could surprise in a smaller than usual Supreme field.

And those Patrick prices on Oddschecker are being drawn from their without MTOY market, hence the crazy odds. Oddschecker problem.

Oh thanks dan for clarification, was causing me serious ambiguity.