Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Markets up on here a lot earlier than I remember which is great to see; should be able to get a few good trades in!
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 117
|
By:
What are we going to argue about this year with the bumper winner going over fences
 |
|
By:
Minsk?
|
|
By:
Haven't heard of half of them in the market at the moment.
Dodging Bullets could be quite interesting because he's still a novice. No idea what the record is of beaten Triumph horses in next year's Supreme (I can't think of many that ran in both anyway). Sharp Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham is probably the first major race for this (what Steps to Freedom won last year), so the winner of that will probably go AP favourite for the Supreme, but the winner of that has a dreadful record in the Supreme |
|
By:
Couldn't have Don Cossack at the head of the betting personally, will need further (Neptune?) surely
|
|
By:
snake eyes or shutthefrontdoor,the latter will possibly need a bit further though
|
|
By:
Regal Encore was impressive in the bumper at Chepstow yesterday - looks a likely type to me.
|
|
By:
Nice little opener for Dodging Bullets today, and seems to have progressed since last year.
Baby Mix is a decent horse to benchmark against, and think Dodging Bullets will be in the mix come the Tuesday at festival. |
|
By:
cant remember any horse running in the triumph one year and been a contender in the supreme the next.
|
|
By:
There can't be too many horses that run in the Triumph as maidens though.
I thought DB was OK today and will come on a lot but it was a weak-ish race. He also looks like he might be a real monkey. Ruby was niggling and pushing at various stages today. I'd rather look at The New One of those that ran this weekend (for the Supreme). |
|
By:
too early for any bets on this race but waaheb is twice the horse than anything else thats run this season.
|
|
By:
I'm going to try very, very hard not to bet on any of the novice hurdles until well in to the new year this time. I usually burn loads of money with stupid, early bets on right donkeys.
|
|
By:
Agree that it's too early, but I never follow my own advice, and have to admit I put a fiver ew on Dodging Bullets last night @ 20's, just to keep me interested in this race until New Year, when I'll pick something else.
My thoughts are, they could have threw away his maiden in a mickey mouse Taunton or Wincanton novice hurdle last year, but they didn't, so not many will have his experience going into this years novice hurdles. He's already rate high 140's, which is pretty much higher than anything that ran in last year's Supreme, or the previous few. Henderson always has huge fire power in this race, and expect one of his to go off as favourite and it's always a hugely competitive race, so don't worry, I'm not counting my money just yet I got bit by the Cheltenham bug last night and put Grandouet on as well  |
|
By:
Im a big Grandouet man.
|
|
By:
Me too if Simonsig is going chasing (as seems to be the case).
|
|
By:
I dont really see the attraction with this Dodging Bullets just yet. He is a good horse but im not convinced he is Grade 1 material.
Cheltenian could be a possible for this race dont forget. |
|
By:
agree baby mix was shocking today
|
|
By:
Sorry, The New One is more likely to be a Neptune/Bartlett horse
 |
|
By:
Any news on what the possible Irish contenders may due come March time,they have a decent record in this and altho i aint considering backing anything yet,it would be good to know who could be unearthing talent over the pond for watching briefs on the lead up.
ps...i dont watch underpants i just couldnt think of the turn of phrase  |
|
By:
Spirit of Shankly will take high rank amongst the novices this year ....been most impressive in bumpers
|
|
By:
Spirit of Shankly has first run over hurdles in the 3.20 at Kempton today.
|
|
By:
as is normal i don't agree with sintonian...
i feel dodging bullets is a grade 1 horse and is worth a small poke here at 16's... 4th in the triumph which i thought was one of the best run in recent years when caught out wide and racing quite freely on only is second run over hurdles was a very commendable effort and came to have every chance at the last...racing to freely out wide and inexperience done for him on the run in but it was an effort full of promise...he got murdered at aintree and i'm happy to line through that... he came out the other day and although i felt the race fell in his lap it was a nice performance extending out well on the run in on his first start back...a bigger field and stronger pace to run at will suit this horse and he looks open to a lot more improvement this season and he will take high rank come the festival imo....tough from the flat and a decent education as a juvenile will stand this horse in good stead... there is a long way to go but he is worth a small poke at the 16's....next friday will tell us more but if the trainer can teach him to settle more there is a lot more to come imo and this tough individual from the flat can pick up the progressive profile shown there and take high rank in the novice hurdle division....he is very likeable imo |
|
By:
alright Harry! long time no hear
Looking forward to Monday night then? Should be good |
|
By:
hey judo hope your well...
yes am looking forward to it...took a little bit of a hit on the djoker this year he just hasn't been there so have had a break from tennis punting while the dust settles muggray cost me 250 to a friend who i said would never win a major  djoker not been there this season for me but he is turning the corner but no investment till he really finds his feet...have been deep in the form book 12 hours a day sad i know but needed too as this year has been a wash out punting but we are fighting back and the last 7 weeks have been really good especially the breeders cup who the bookies made a serious overlay on wise dan and a couple of others although got me pants pulled down on questing who was lame before entering the gate (disgusting drift) still...so that was good... am more interested in the all weather at the moment as jumpers are tricky for me no matter how many hours i put in... hows things with you? |
|
By:
ahh great mate, been doing well on the laying side myself
haha also took a hit when Muzza won the USO but overall he's been good to me Love the jumps season and already made more money backing (Aintree, Wetherby, Sandown, Wincanton, Kelso, Uttox) than the whole of the flat. Will be in here much more now the real racing has started but it's such a shame we only get quality on a Saturday now and it's a race every 5 mins. Ho hum Want to see a Muzz-Novak final for sure |
|
By:
yeah can tell your more a jump man...i'm the other way to be honest but love the jumpers too but find it harder so am evaluating my strategy for the season ahead
yes do most of my playing in the place market but no poppy was a very nice result at lingfield in the week and had a kirby horse at 32's for small stakes which won like a 3's on shot but didn't find it till 2 minutes before the off which was a shame... well have watched a little and would fancy djoker to beat muzza here but has got more difficult to get the goat beaten recently and they are having some great battles but fed might have something to say...shame rafa hasn't been around he is missed on the tour... whats your honest opinion on walkon's chances in next weeks paddy chase?? don't beat around the bush...i have invested but am happy to say if i'm wrong...handicaps are more my thing...any opinion |
|
By:
Been studying the race for a week trying to get a handle on the Cue Card/ For Non Stop/ Michael Flips form and Walkon is included in that calculation. The only two concerns I have are the going and it's effect on his jumping. Feeling that he would prefer some cut to slow the field down so he can jump more fluently than say at Newbury in the CC race where he blundered from fence to fence. If you have a big enough price I wouldn't say no for sure. Trainer had Il Duce placed in the race at 50/1 so he can do it. On the trends he is about 3lb lower in the handicap than the usual range. What price you got?
|
|
By:
fair comments...
just have some 18's and 14's pal...I just think he is now a horse to catch fresh as his record indicates...i thought he bounced at newbury and was never really going...just thought he was chucked in here off of 143 and if he's fresh and well i think he is capable of running in the late 50's...there is a huge amount of not well handicapped animals here for me and his record round here is pretty good with close examination my main concern is does he need further.... his jumping agree needs some inspection but first time at exeter he jumped like a buck of course that isn't cheltenham but he ran well for a long way in the rsa for me but just feel he needs to be caught fresh and the handicapper has given him every chance...like any winner of the paddy race they will need to jump well but if he does this is a handicap and for me he is the best handicapped in this...my main concern is the distance but he will be staying on strong if his jumping holds up...trainer in smashing form who do you fancy and what your trends saying....good course form is important when i looked and no more than about 8-10 career starts over fences unless trained by the pipes of course |
|
By:
I will let you know my thinking closer to the race Harry mate, want to see the final decs - unfortunately some of the possible outsiders that could run big are not big enough prices for me to consider (like Michael Flips and yours, I would want 25+ to back them)
the good thing is he is a proper Gr1 horse on his best day so if he is on a going day he could run big - the price is only fair though |
|
By:
fair play pal...not keen on the exposed michael flips myself although he may surprise...let me know what you come up with
|
|
By:
just looking to squeeze some value out of the market, as you say there are lots of badly handicapped horses in the race. Michael Flips is nowhere near a big enough price to make up for his shortcomings so I won't be on him. The others I have considered are Nadiya de la Vega and Quntitativeeasing (but only if Geraghty rides. Looking increasingly tough to get the fav beat but I won't be betting him at the price for sure. Pretty tough stuff - you could be on to something with yours
|
|
By:
yeh very tough judo and the favourite is a worthy one for sure but skinny for sure...as is always the case with these type of races that are pinpointed by punters the thieves suck every last piece of value out of them which makes it tough to get involved and eek any value...interesting race though...i thought quantiveesing was interesting but didn't look especially well handicapped although i thought the run against your horse medermit and the dartnall nag was top class handicapping form from last season
|
|
By:
Not sure about this year's Supreme, but Sizing Rio looks like a monster who would laugh at fences next year.
|
|
By:
yes harry that spinal research race is top class form indeed and has provided the winner of this
anyway catch up soon |
|
By:
I'm with Sint and can't have Dodging Bullets for this - maybe the Coral Cup or County Hurdle.
He's entered for the novice hurdle on Friday along with plenty of other nice types so we could know one way of the other before the weekend. |
|
By:
Guess we'll know more after tomorrow but will anyone put me off having a small stake on Court Minstrel for the Supreme?
|
|
By:
I think he is nice BBF but would not be surprised if he arrived in something like the County. He will at this stage be generally over priced with connections, but suspect he is not going to be good enough to win the Supreme (some will say how can he reverse form with Tistory?)
|
|
By:
Court Minstrel looked a shade unlucky today BBF and could turn out to be the best of those that ran - which would perhaps put him in the picture for the SNH. Nonetheless, I'm sure connections of a few of the others would feel that the race could've panned out better for them, not least the winner.
Court Minstrel - it's name sounds like it is going right to the top! |
|
By:
As I've said above, the winner of the Sharp Novices Hurdle today has a terrible record in the Supreme. Recent winners Steps to Freedom, Cue Card, Loosen my Load, Golan Way, I'msingingtheblues, Moon Over Miami etc all were either unplaced or didn't run in the Supreme. As a backer of Dodging Bullets, that makes me a bit concerned, but if he is to run in the Christmas Hurdle and runs into a place, that would be some top notch form heading into a Supreme.
After the race last year the bookies went 10/1 Steps to Freedom and Prospect Wells 14/1. I hope Dodging Bullets doesn't turn out to be another Nicholls one who looks good in early season hurdles and then fades, like a Sam Winner or Hinterland, but I thought that was satisfactory today, despite the muddling pace. True, the runner up was thrown in the deep end having his first hurdle race a G2, and I expect him to come on a lot, DB was giving him 7lbs, and he is still a 4 year old himself. I think you can rule out handicaps at the Festival because he's already rated 150, which would put him near to, or top weight in the County Hurdle. |
|
By:
Gr8 post well chief ty
I have backed db for the snh but not overly convinced by today or Ruby's honest comments after |