Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices
Supreme Novices
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Should also say that Waheeb ran really well, but his jumping was very novicey and will need to improve if he is to have any hope of turning the tables.
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Jezki
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A real carcrash of a Supreme Novices' book for me with Ned Buntline, Waaheb, and Minsk! I've traded out everything possible for a moderate red and will be starting again.
Frustrating thing is, my first decent bet was a tossup between Minsk and Jezki before they ran against each other, shrewdie  |
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Jezki seriously impressive today. Quite how Laddies have him the same price as River Maigue is beyond me
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Jezki must start favourite in this. The race was run at a cracking pace, as you will get at the festival and he finished in a manner that indicates he won't have any problem getting up the hill. He simply destroyed the opposition. With Your Tent or Mine failing to get home, the list of potential winners is shrinking.
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Geraghty sounded confident of turning the tables on Dodging Bullets if they were to meet again, DB not far behind co fav for champion hurdle Darlan at Kempton. River Maigue quite rightly near the fore front of the betting imo.
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River M is the value at the moment certainly. Hopefully Jezki will win again next time out and get there fit and well. Is it too much to dream of that Court Minstrel wins this weekend
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pique sous interests me in this.there waiting for better ground for him to re appear. also a fan of court minstrel would like to see him go for county hurdle tho would suit down to ground imo.thoughts?
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can anyone tell me if whistling gallery is going to be aimed at the supreme
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Sorry meant whispering gallery any info welcome
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like nicholls said dodging bullets straight to the festival... as isn't among the entries for the dovecote
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Nice to see some blue on oddschecker at long last for Dodging Bullets today. The fact he stayed 14/1 for so long was very surprising to me.
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Interesting CCM that it was Ladbrokes who were hanging out for the longest. He has been less than 14's with everyone else for some time.
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Yeah and laddies are 1/5th odds a place the tinkers! (or were)
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Definitely ff.... They are not longest anymore though, so have presumably taken a good few quid!
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and wont be paying any of it out
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They were stand out MTOY, 20s when everyone was 14s and 12s, they were laying 14s for agers when he was as short as 8/1 with quite a few firms. They're odds compilers need shooting.
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Been doing this race today and my conclusion is that the value is 10/1 Melodic Rendezvous based on trends and key trial races.
MTOY clearly to be feared on the Betfair form if you think how GMOOH went in Menorahs Supreme Hurdle after running in the same race off a stone (or so) lower. But I've totally missed the price and 13/8 is no use to me now. Jezki has to overcome not having a prep run and that has stopped plenty of good horses and this is very very hot. Pique Sous is my idea of a slightly longer priced danger as if he had had one more decent run in a good trial race (and won it) he would be much shorter. Melodic for me each way 10/1 looks solid and sure to get a run for the money. Has never been outside the first two in 6 runs lifetime |
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More blue for Dodging Bullets today. Is he getting pricewised soon?!
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no catch me another tipping line put it up yesterday...it isn't pricewise i can assure you of that
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Ok cheers
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got norfolk and chance imo
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Judo. Whilst stats and trends are very useful, I personally think people can get too wrapped up in them. Will be very interesting to look back on them after this years meet imo! Bound to be a few races where the winner didnt fit.
Paul Nicholls knows more than most of us and the fact this is his number one candidate and will be the choice of Ruby Walsh means I am happy to ignore the fact he doesnt fit the trends I just cant have him out of the frame. |
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fair enough, think there are quite a few classy and faster than him that fit the profile and have better form. Be amazed if he is anywhere near the front unless it is a crawl
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Is he definitely the choice of Ruby? I keep hearing he will ride Pique Sous
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he would be well advised if he does! might have to get him onside as he is my third choice for the race (PS) and will much shorter if Ruby rides
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Think PS has better claims than DB too but would b shocked if Ruby rode tbh
1.01 to ride DB imo |
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I am starting to cool on Dodging Bullets now - all because I read an article that said flat breds have a bad record recently due to the introduction of the watered ground policy.
Not the worst 14/1 shot I'll ever back but confidence is waning... |
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don't see he has any prospect of beating the likes of MTOY for a start, flat bred, had two seasons and 6 races over hurdles but only won two of them looks a lot to ask to win a really fierce race off a profile like that
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amazing ming how people have different opinions because my confidence is growing in the horse just hope for good ground for the horse...his experience will be vital for me and still has scope for improvement...trainer very pleased with the horse by all accounts
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his experience would be useful if he had won the majority of his races, never ran a fast time on my ratings, flat bred, the going is likely to be on the soft side on the first day (rain forecast, see the metcheck thread) and I just can't have him
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These tip lines are for fools. Who cares who puts it up on the blower or some website. Paul Nicholls is the horses mouth as far as DB goes, and he thinks it has its chances. All they are doing is what anyone else can do, read trainer comments which have been available for some time. I don't know why anyone would want to pay for that sort of 'tip'.
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Nicholls put DB as his £100 ew charity bet at Exeter preview last week if that's anything to go by.Best price 10's now btw.been backed this week.
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Just looked at betting on Oddschecker, noticed PatrickPower prices slashed on every horse barr MTOY, something going on?
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Because Melodic Rendezvous is out?
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No, something else
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Cheltenian is big at 33/1 with Victor Swindler - a classy horse that could surprise in a smaller than usual Supreme field.
And those Patrick prices on Oddschecker are being drawn from their without MTOY market, hence the crazy odds. Oddschecker problem. |
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Oh thanks dan for clarification, was causing me serious ambiguity.
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