Cheltenham Festival
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Scheduled to meet in the Tingle Creek, cannot wait for this. Who wins and why?
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Sprinter Sacre, because he is a better horse, and less complicated. I don't actually think it'll even be close.
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sprinter sacre because it is far superior. did you miss last season
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Aye, I saw him
 I'm curious whether anyone think the beast faces any competion here. |
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Once a pig, always a pig - Sanctuaire
Sprinter will slap him silly imo |
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Genuinely can't have Sanctuaire within 30 lengths
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I think Sprinter will win because he's the better horse but the way Sanctuaire jumps round Sandown the race should be a sight to see. I can't wait.
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I agree with al the above - Sprinter, for all reasons given. I also think Stront is right. Sanctaire has track experience on a track where this counts, and front runs on a track where this counts. PFN will also have him fit as a flee whereas I can see NJH perhaps not having SS 110%, which he often does not with many is horses FTO in November and early December. No question SS wins for me (hoping Sanctuaire provides a price in fact) but PFN will go out of his way to make this more than a cake walk.
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Gonna be close if Sanctuaire repeats his Sandown performance.Was as impressive a 2m chase performance than any i saw last season.
Certainly no foregone conclusion. Hope they both make it cos i will be there. Cant wait!! |
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p. nicholls has hinted that sanctuaire will have 2 targets this season the tingle creek and then keep him fresh for the champion chase ,i expect that he will have sanc 110% ready for sandown and supporters of both will have a clearer picture of the chances of both for the champion ,lets not forget that this is horseracing and there are others to consider ,sizing europe should not be written off should he turn up ,facing up and comers but has the proven form in the book and is an arkle,tingle creek , and champion chase winner and is no back number who has few miles on the clock for his age and also would have surely won or gone very close close to winning a champion hurdle .
i am in the sanctuare camp having backed him ante post for the champion but if sizing europe turns up for the tingle creek and is a price he would need serious consideration . |
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Sanctuaire will go off in front, Sprinter will cruise past 2 fences out and win on the bridle
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Bluebird, that's close to the picture I have in my mind. I hope not though because I'd like to know what Sprinter finds for pressure so it would be good to see something get him off the bridle. A bold front runner round Sandown with that stiff uphill finish might be just the ticket, especially if Sprinter is not 100% primed.
Incidentally, if you want to see something really spectacular, go right down to the bottom of the enclosure at Sandown and watch Sanctuaire jump that open ditch. A wonderful sight. |
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RC - excellent post @ 22.21
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I would side with SS. However, I do think a lot of folk are seriously underestimating Sanctuaire. Joist I would take the match bet Sactuaire +30L.
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Interesting points.
Personally looking at Sanctuires form,3 chases on 3 different going descriptions,all resulting in impressive wins by big margins,must admit i find it amazing that some are so confident of a Sprinter victory. Comparing the form of both and the horses they have beaten,i see no evidence of that myself. Like i said no foregone conclusion,not at all. Bl00dy fascinating though,and if were there to be an impressive winner out of these 2,that would be one exceptional horse imo.Could be either,or more likely close between them. As pointed out though,horses like Sizing Europe could spoil the party. |
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You make a very good point Budd - if one of these horses trounces the other we're potentially looking at a once in a generation horse. Also Sizing is a great yardstick and as a real champion cannot be written off (could be an outstanding price in fact).
Can I say I'm a big Sanctuarie fan, I was very impressed with him last season in all three of his chases and I think he's a big player this year. Any novice chaser who can do what he did round Sandown has to be taken very seriously. It's just that, at this stage, I'm even more impressed with Sprinter. I'd also take the 30 l matched bet with Joist! |
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Sprinter will enjoy going along at Sanctuaire's pace I think and can see him putting the pressure on 2 out and going clear nudged home to win by 5. People keep asking about Sprinter's battling qualities and what he will find off the bridle. I have to be honest I would just say he's not that type of horse. He doesn't race behind the bridle. He's not a lazy horse he wants to go faster than he's allowed to. He doesn't need to be asked a huge amount to pick up so I don't think you are going to be seeing this horse under an all out Geraghty drive.
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MM, that raises the question what will happen when/if he gets in a race aginst something that can challenge him - if just picking up is not enough. It might be that SS is a good enough horse just to stroll away from anything, but very, very few are that good.
Although he's looked superb in his chases to date I think its fair to say he's not been challenged and he's not raced anything really good (without getting in to hpytotheticals about Al Ferof). Sanctuaire and Sizing Europe will certainly be a big step up in class and Sprinter will surely have to do more to beat them than he has so far. Sizing at his best is a serious horse who won't be brushed off easily, and he'll be primed to the minute by a great trainer, so it's possible Sprinter may have to battle somewhat. I expect Sprinter to win. It's also possible that Sizing is in decline and Sanctuaire flattered to deceive. However, I don't expect it to be a cruise for SS. I also hope it's not an easy race for the sport and the spectacle. |
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Sorry Shockster and Sint, book closed
 Was a bit hasty with 30 lengths but I still wholly expect Sprinter to win pretty hard on the steel. I realise Sanctuaire was impressive on his last start...But Sanctuaire v Sprinter Sacre, ffs. Sprinter isn't just a level above, he's 2 or 3 notches above. IMO |
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Sprinter easily. well very easily..
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Sanctuaire one of the most underrated horses in training. Make no mistake about it, Sprinter Sacre will have to go and catch Sanctuaire because he won't be coming back to him. Fascinating race lets hope both horses make it in one piece.
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The only time Sanctuaire was underrated is when the gave him a 20 length lead in the Celebration Chase. If Dominic Elsworth had waited any longer for Sanctuaire to come back to him he'd have been accused on riding a non trier.
Somersby wouldn't have beat him on that ground but there's no doubt in my mind the ride he got fell right into Ruby's lap and made things a lot easier than they should have been. The time of the race tells us nothing. It was a good time in the conditions but plenty of horses have covered the trip on soft ground in similar times. The only other chase that day was over a different distance and was run at a crawl so that's no help. No doubt he's a handy animal but no one in their right mind would take this challenge to Sprinter Sacre seriously. This is the first chaser in over 40 years to have the potential to break the 200 mark with Timeform he's that good He's already rated 169 by the BHA which is 2lbs higher than Kauto Star was rated after he won the Tingle Creek against seniors. In his 5 chases to date he has looked unbeatable with not one horse even coming close to lying up with him and he has yet to come out of second gear. Watching this horse is like turning the clock back to 1965 and watching the great Arkle all over again he really could be that good. Sanctuaire won a Grade 2 chase in bad ground impressively. I've seen a thousand like him and anyone who thinks he is in any shape or form a danger to Spinter Sacre is clutching at straws. I'd be more interested in how he gets on against Sizing Europe who has proved time and time again he is top class not some one off winner who could go back to spitting out the dummy at anytime. If he can kick Sizing Europe into touch easily then we could be well on the way to him breaking that 200 barrier. |
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Dont think it the mose sensible thing to totally dismiss a horse thats won 3 chases as easily as Sanctuaire has,but there yer go.
Hes absolutely hacked up over course and distance against a horse better than SS has ever faced(imo),so has to be taken seriously,however you look at that race. If we look at the bare form,and the horses both have faced,we will see an interesting race coming up. Better that imo than just saying SS is much better and thats that,and more sensible. Racing dont usually work that way,in my experience. |
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Yeah but how many Sprinter Sacre's do you get in a bag of coal? Sensible is as sensible does. ask Forest
On his day Somersby is a good horse but I'd say he's certainly not much better than anything Sprinter Sacre has faced. There's ever chance time will prove he's not even as good Somersby was in the best condition of his life when he ran in the King George. Not even Kauto Star was going better than he was before the home turn before his stamina gave way(go back and take a look) He backed that up by wearing down Finian's Rainbow in the QMCC but who finished 3rd a few lengths behind. None other than the inexperienced Al Ferof who PN said would definitely come on for the race. Al Ferof wouldn't be too far behind Somersby and Cue card would beat them both IMO.Then of course there's Menorah that showed just how good he can be if getting his jumping together and Sptinter Sacre beat him almost 30 lengths in a canter After Ascot Somersby then went to Cheltenham and never raised a gallop before heading to Sandown where he ran flat as a pancake behind Sanctuaire. The ride he got could also have been better. I think it's safe to say he wasn't at his best when Sanctuaire beat him so citing him as a reason for marking up Sanctuaire as something special doesn't compute with me. Long Run caught Kuato Star on an off day by 11 lengths and look how reliable that form turned out to be. Sanctuaire's bare form is very questionable but Sprinter Sacre has answered every question put to him without as much as breaking sweat. To be frank I don't think Sanctuaire could blow wind up his backside and anyone who thinks he'll even get the black airplane off the bridle is dreaming. You now it makes sense  |
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Rondetto - you make some interesting points but what you're talking about is only Sprinter's potential. He has not actually recorded all-time-great figures yet because he's generally beaten moderate (if solid) opposition.
I would point out that the overwhelming majority of horses (99.99...%) eventually run in a race where they get challenged. A corollary is that those horses have a limit of ability that they reach. Realistically, Arkle is the only near perfect jumps horse we know about. The odds are very much that Sprinter is not that good and will be found out at some point. The fact he only came third in the Supreme suggests he has some limits, whatever excuses you choose to make for him. I accept it's possible the above is wrong and Sprinter is the new Arkle - but it's extremely unlikely on a statistical basis alone. As you say, how Sprinter does against Sizing Europe will be a big and valuable test. If he brushes him aside then he may well be in the Denman/Masterminded class. Another problem for him though may be the quality of the opposition, which is vital to achieve ultra high ratings. If he stays over 2 m, at the moment it looks a potentially weak field. To get that 200+ rating you have to hope Sizing is still somewhere near his best, Finians stays at 2 m and Sanctuaire is better than you think. |
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Well,as yet SS has won a few novice chases,albeit impressively.
Then again so has Sanctuaire,who imo has beaten a better horse with better form than any horse SS has faced. Thats bare form. How we deciper it all is where opinions can differ,as in this case it seems. Time will tell. |
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Budd, it's Al Ferof v Sprinter all over again
Hang in there pal. At least we only have to wait until December for this one. |
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Every year there is something aginst something!! warms us up as winter looms. Tbe honest i really think this is gonna be close,especially with it coming fairly early without either horse having run yet(i presume). If either won it would not be a surprise to me,although obviously to some it will!! |
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some good points made and of course its all about opinions ,some are in the sprinter sacre camp some are with sanctuaire well the facts are that sprinter sacre is officialy rated 169 sanctuaire 166 with sizing euro at 172 and although official ratings are obviously not set in stone they give a good assesment . there are pros and cons to all 3 chances, i.e sizing euro is getting on a bit but even if he is as good as last year he is entitled to be bang in the mix and has been there and done it at the highest level not once but several times .
sprinter sacre horse of immense potential and has won an arkle and you couldnt help but be impressed but his chase wins have been in relativly small fields so for me the jury is still out as to whether he is the new pegasus ,also when he was put to the test in the supreme against horses who had the class to go with him up the hill he was found wanting imo, i would expect him to improve this season ,but the same goes for sanctuaire who i dont think we have seen the bast of yet . now to sanctuaire ,very impressive in all his chases last season but he has beaten decent handicappers impressively not top notchers and as posters have stated he could throw the toys out the pram like he seemed to over hurdles on a few occasions or it could be that fences are the making of him . my theory is that (as stated on another thread )that letting him have his head and blasting off in front is the way to keep him happy . over hurdles he was held up behind horses on many occasions and was pulling for his head wanting to get on with it and to me he seemed to resent it after a while and dissapointed . whatever happens there seems sure to be a shake up in the market after the tingle creek if all the main contenders turn up . by the way how would you price these 3 up in the tingle creek ! sizing euro runs tommoz so may want to see how he goes before pricing up . whatever happens or whoever wins as long as they all come back safely we have a great season to look forward to . bring it on ! |
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4/9 Splinter. 11/4 Sanctuaire . 5/1 Sizing
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Actual prices or your idea of the prices?
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5's SE would be nice.
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I was so impressed by this horse I contemplated he could go on to become an Arkle - Kuato Star – Denman - Masterminded all rolled into one! I was so impressed I bought the domain name www.sprintersacre.com with the intention of turning it into a non-profit blog/fan web site.
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Indeed it would Budd 5/1 E/w on Sizing is as good as a free bet IMO. 4/9 on Sprinter isn't bad either.
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i would not be in a rush to back sprinter sacre at 4/9 against sanctuaire and sizing in the tingle .
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nor would i
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No way he goes off @ 4/9.
More like Sprinter Sacre 8/11 Sizing europe 3/1 Sanctuaire 7/2 |
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Fair enough as an AP price but I'll be staggered if Sprinter goes off as big as 8/11. This is a horse with massive hype and for once the hype may be justified.
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The prices i put up are of my own opinion. I think the tingle creek will be a small field this season with the attendance of SS. Cant see it being 3 places on the eachway terms ON THE DAY. Anyone who saw Sizing Europe take the best part of a half a mile to catch I Hear A Symphony yesterday would'nt take 10s about him beating San and SS in the Tingle Creek. First Luientant needed the run badly and Forpaddy isnt the horse he was.A week enough race in my opinion for the prizemoney on offer.I have nothing against Sizing Europe and having a run under is belt will be a help but he was found out by Finians Raindow last season and i expect him to be found out in the tingle creek aswell. SS would be excellent value at 8/11 but there will not be a sniff of that. I think the only horse that can trouble SS this season will be Finians Rainbow but alas,we'll have to wait till march for that.
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Sizing is a horse who is trained for particular days and yesterday wasn't one of them. The TC will be and he'll come on nicely for yesterday. I'd cheerfully take 5/1 e/w on Sizing with 2 places in the likely company (or 3 places AP). He was awesome in the race last year.
I do agree with you about the 8/11 on Sprinter as an on the day price. The horse is generally available at even money for the Champion Chase which is 6 months away and likely to be a stronger field. If he's 8/11 for the TC on the day of race he'll be the nap in every national paper and possibly Pricewise as well. |