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colupaul
25 Sep 12 18:06
Joined:
Date Joined: 02 Sep 03
| Topic/replies: 3,429 | Blogger: colupaul's blog
Only one antepost bet for me at Cheltenham next year on this Nicholls inmate.

Pleased to hear Nicholls stating that nothing is ruled out for next season starting with the Charlie Hall and an entry held in the King George.
Though Nicholls  sees Aintree as being the target for next year could he resist a tilt at the Gold Cup if SC performs well at Kempton?
The yard doesn't have a stand out candidate for the Gold Cup following the Denman/Kauto years and the race look wide open this year.

SC beat Champion Court by 13 lengths in the Midmay in April whereas Sir Des Champs had previously beaten Champion Court by 4 lengths at Cheltenham over a shorter distance.  SDC generally 6/1 while SC generally 33/1 although Hills are as low as 12/1.  There's been a steady stream of money on here recently bringing SC in line with the bookies.

Anyway, I'm on here at 65s and 33s with the books...


Anybody with me?
Pause Switch to Standard View Silviniaco Conti - Gold Cup 2013
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Report FOYLESWAR September 27, 2012 5:26 PM BST
agreed   strontium, i have backed this one for the king george and put another up on the ante post thread ,what i mean by the stick to your guns comment is that if you change your mind in this game it inevetably comes back and bites you on the rse as we have all expierienced before .
Report BJG October 1, 2012 11:56 AM BST
Silviniaco Conti

We'll run him in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and then make a plan. He'll probably have an entry in the King George but he might be an ideal horse for Aintree in the spring and we'll give him plenty of time. He might be a Gold Cup contender in 2014 rather than 2013, as he could get stronger and more consistent.


Nt completely ruled out imo, gl
Report abbott October 1, 2012 5:30 PM BST
I'm going to stick my neck out here but SC won't win one race this season. Don't get me wrong he's a very good horse but IMO isn't top class, unless his sight are lowered he may struggle in his first season out of novice company.
Report buddeliea October 1, 2012 5:37 PM BST
Pretty much agree with that,and would say the same about Grand Crus.
Imagine those 2 up against Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar!!

How Far???
Report strontium October 1, 2012 7:00 PM BST
Would be a sight to see Budd Grin

I wouldn't be surprised if SC doesn't have a great season either tbh.
Report colupaul October 29, 2012 2:53 PM GMT
As expected SC entered for the Charlie Hall at Wetherby this coming Saturday... put in as 3/1 jolly by Bet356...

Nicholls stated in his Betfair column: 'We will see how he fares at Wetherby before making firmer plans for him going forward'.

Looks a decent field...
Report strontium October 29, 2012 4:05 PM GMT
I think it's a weak field apart from SC and First Leiut, who I reckon is more likely to run at Down Royal. Weird Al, Midnight Chase, Time for Rupert & Diamond Harry were firmly put in their place last year imo - though they may be competetive with each other.
Report Brooksielad October 29, 2012 8:52 PM GMT
Been touting this beast since it destroyed captain Chris in a novice hurdle. Get the feeling he could be bit special.
Report Howdi October 29, 2012 9:45 PM GMT
I dcon't half fancy Sc TO WIN THIS:

- On the upgrade
- Master trainer
- Well looked after in the past , now is his time
- Competition is exposed
- Quite frannkly not good enough.
Report Mr Mischief October 31, 2012 7:41 PM GMT
The money has come for this one on Saturday, would need to be beating this field well enough for a Gold Cup to be considered
Report strontium October 31, 2012 10:52 PM GMT
Is the Gold Cup even on his agenda this season? Nicholls has always talked about him being a flat track horse with any possible Gold Cup bid next season.
Report colupaul November 3, 2012 10:07 PM GMT
A pleasing performance from SC today... couldn't ask for much more...
Report FOYLESWAR November 3, 2012 11:17 PM GMT
yeah colpaul gotta be happy with that ,as said before i am on for the king george ,on the ante post forum there is talk of thast the hennesey is the target ,i hope not as he is only a 6 yo and carrying a biggish weight is not ideal and he seems to need at least 6 weeks between his races to show his best ,he is down to about 16s  for the gold on here and about 8s for the king george .good luck .
Report strontium November 3, 2012 11:19 PM GMT
Today can't have done his mark any good for the Hennessey!
Report strontium November 3, 2012 11:33 PM GMT
For which he isn't even entered Blush
Report chelters16 November 4, 2012 8:37 AM GMT
Howdi had this taped,took his advice...........pleasing performance now lets see what the big uns bring to the party in the next few weeks.
Major disappointment at Down Royal as was sure SE on decent ground would have jumped away from the field.
Report Howdi November 4, 2012 11:38 AM GMT
Good stuff.

My only dissapointment is that we could have been on 'at a price' if we had known about all these likely withdrawls.

Second guessing entries is hard enough but then the withdrawls to follow make ante post punting even a week before the off almost impossible.
Report colupaul November 4, 2012 2:15 PM GMT
Howdi - those who were at 3s last Monday are in clover... though not me I'm afraid! Sad

Foyles - sitting pretty for the King George though Ruby is understandably wary of the likes of Grand Crus and Bob's Worth...

strontium - SC in the Gold Cup mix betting wise but on the same day he posts an impressive performance there are wins for both Cristal Bonus and Kauto Stone, two horses you posted as possible PN Gold Cup potentials, fair play...

I've not heard from Mr Nicholls (not personally of course) re the next target but the King George makes logical sense with it being 7 weeks away...
Report strontium November 4, 2012 3:23 PM GMT
It is going to be fascinating to see how they campaign these horses. Both Ruby and Nicholls seemed more bullish about Kauto Stone's performace yesterdy than SC's, which surprised me a touch. Maybe KS wasn't fully tuned up? I suspect SC will be running well in some nice races even though he may not go for the KG or CGC this season. Eternaloptomist made an interesting post on the AP board about it being a gradual process for SC, with the build up possibly to the biggest races next season. However, connections don't seem to have a clear view about what they want to do, so we can only speculate Mischief
Report Eeternaloptimist November 4, 2012 9:52 PM GMT
Or they do and are happy to allow us to speculate.
Report strontium November 4, 2012 11:08 PM GMT
Dunno - maybe, but they are a media friendly yard and not a gambling yard. I got the impression they hadn't had time to consider the runs of SC, Kauto Stone and Crystal Bonus when the comments I'm referring to were made yesterday - and of course Nicholls, Walsh and Jacob were all in different places at the time.
Report Eeternaloptimist November 5, 2012 12:06 AM GMT
Now that Harry has buggered off anyway. Laugh
Report strontium November 5, 2012 10:51 AM GMT
Fair enough Grin
Report duffy November 5, 2012 3:04 PM GMT
a very nice 3 miler that may fall a little below the very very best over a gold cup trip, looks a tailor made horse for the betfred bowl (eventually anyway)where he may bump into a couple of the gold cup/ ryaniar also rans and other not quite gold cup horses.
Report buddeliea November 5, 2012 5:10 PM GMT
pretty much how i see him at the moment duffy,although he could improve more.
Report strontium November 5, 2012 5:26 PM GMT
I think that's fair Budd and Duffy. Given his good form at Kempton, Wetherby and Aintree the King George should suit him (though he could easily run in to a better opponent).
Report colupaul November 6, 2012 9:49 PM GMT
Taken from Paul Jones Chelt Fest ante Post service:

'Connections of Silviniaco Conti were talking of bypassing Cheltenham for Aintree before his runaway Charlie Hall Chase win feeling that he would be better suited to flat track. As impressive as he was at Wetherby, I didn’t think he had a lot to beat though he did it in some style but I was shocked to hear afterwards that suddenly Kempton may not suit him (as he stays so well being the reasoning) so they are thinking of now swerving the King George. I don’t doubt that Nicholls views him as his number one Gold Cup hope but I prefer at least three of last season’s novices ahead of him.'
Report R Carver November 8, 2012 8:26 PM GMT
Some people have good APs for him for March seemingly, and GL to them. I personally think the form of the Charlie Hall is well below gold cup form. Visually impressive but the race was IMO a bit of a farce and totally run to suit. Interesting afterwards that PFN said he thought a more galloping track would suit SC than Kempton. The horse's asset to me is his speed and travelling and a GC slog on a far stiffer course, undulating, over further, jumping more fences IMO would not play to his strengths. He may develop that way but everything I have seen so far suggests the CGC slog would not suit.
Report R Carver November 8, 2012 8:27 PM GMT
Colupal - Just read above quote. I am not Paul Jones. We are both probably wrong!
Report strontium November 9, 2012 11:12 AM GMT
Good post RC and good to see you back. I think SC will prove to be some way below the best of last season's novices - but that's exciting because it means the best could be real crackers. It was interesting that Ruby(?) said he thought Kauto Stone's performance wa sprobably better than SC's.
Report R Carver November 9, 2012 2:04 PM GMT
Thanks Strontium! Been terribly busy at home but have managed to get to the track several times, just no time to post. Have been watching the debates develop, as always very, very interesting stuff.

Regarding SC, I forgive his Ascot run, but think Wetherby was a farce and think Aintree was less than solid too probably. I am not sure what excuses he would have had at Kempton though because (and I disagree with the trainer (who I am aware knows much, much more than me)) on all we have seen on the track, Kempton you would think would suit (at least then it would have anyway IMO) and Grand Crus beat him IMO pretty fairly. At this stage I would rather back about 5 for March than SC and its very interesting to hear Ruby thinks KS put up a better level of form on the weekend (I think i actually agree come to think of it).
Report strontium November 9, 2012 2:17 PM GMT
I'm not sure tbh. KS beat Quito de la Roque by a few lengths and he was written off last season as useless (and in need of a bog, which he didn't truly have on Saturday). KS also narrowly beat First Liuet, who once again didn't look to stay the trip to me. (I can't have him staying the CGC trip). At least the race at Down Royal is straightforward to assess, whereas the race at Wetherby rather fell apart. SC did win very easily, but it would be tricky to assess the form - I see the handicapper put him up to 168 and has KS on 162 (not sure if he went up?).

I was also puzzled about PFN's comments re Cheltenham - I would expect a horse that's done well at Aintree and Wetherby to be suited by Kempton. Maybe he just doesn't want to meet Grands Crus there again.
Report strontium November 9, 2012 2:25 PM GMT
*re Kempton (sorry, brainphart)
Report Howdi November 9, 2012 10:25 PM GMT
168 new mark ovewr reaction (163 with me)
Report Howdi November 9, 2012 10:26 PM GMT
who is this KS who beat Qito please???
Report festivalfanatic November 9, 2012 10:30 PM GMT
Keep up H......Kauto Stone.
Report Howdi November 9, 2012 10:49 PM GMT
sorry
Report Eeternaloptimist November 16, 2012 1:30 AM GMT
Nicholls knows the score. I fully expect that he had SC as wound up as he could at Wetherby because that is a very nice prize in itself for a 6 year old to be picking up. Let the more experienced campaigners knock the bolllocks off each other through the winter with him picking up a couple of easier races with his personal gold cup coming at Aintree which suits him and where he will be fresh against a weary or not good enough field. He'll still be 7 next season with a  bit more juice to squeeze out.

No need to be greedy or needy.
Report BJG November 24, 2012 3:22 PM GMT
U av a lovely bet now - wd

Massive chance
Report FOYLESWAR November 24, 2012 3:59 PM GMT
well worked out colop and good luck.
Report cammy glasgow November 24, 2012 4:54 PM GMT
good luck m8 great shout Cool
Report colupaul November 24, 2012 5:01 PM GMT
Thanks gents... Happy

Nicholls stated they may go straight to the Gold Cup and King George is definitely out (Foyles Sad).

Personally, I don't think today's race told us much.  Long Run and Bolster clearly in good health though,
both still have jumping issues and these errors are costly.

It came to me today why I was taken by SC at Aintree.  The horse is very pleasing to the eye when it jumps
(I'm no judge of these things!)and this was confirmed today, effortless springs to mind.

Downside is still the lack of Cheltenham experience...
Report FOYLESWAR November 24, 2012 5:17 PM GMT
yeah k.george out but not too bad am green on the race, but would ra him rther have  him running ~
Report shockster November 24, 2012 9:13 PM GMT
SC looked very good today.  I was there and backed Long Run, but I couldn't see any excuses.  At no point did I think LR would get past him.  Looked pretty comfortable really and has to be considered a really serious horse.  Well done to all who have fancy prices.
Report Navel-Gazer November 24, 2012 9:28 PM GMT
I can't understand what's made Nicholls rule Silviniaco Conti out of the King George as I think Kempton would suit him more than Cheltenham, and conversely, Al Ferof seems very much at home there, yet has no form at Kempton.

Also, maybe he's not dependent on soft ground but the majority of his form is with cut, and there is likely to be more give in the ground over Christmas than at the Festival.

That's one of the negatives with having the top performers housed in a select few of the best stables, as they avoid their stars meeting.

Besides...come the Gold Cup, I think he's got big question marks regarding his stamina, and as impressive as he's been in his two wins this season (which have featured some very smooth fencing) he has rather had things his own way.

I wasn't convinced he would make the grade as a chaser as he was very slick over hurdles, and that doesn't always seem to translate to fences - he's made a monkey out of me on that score as he looks a professional chaser despite having only a handful of runs.

I laid him for the Gold Cup earlier at 7.6 and I have a £300 RED next to his name which doesn't concern me too much at this stage...there's a long way to go, and I still have reservations.

Kauto Star is an obvious exception (but he was truly exceptional) but a cumbersome boat is usually what wins a Gold Cup, and Silviniaco Conti certainly ain't that!

Whilst not being a particular favourite of mine...Quito De La Roque fits the bill perfectly in all departments except his lack of course form - and he's recently proved his well-being with a more than satisfactory reappearance after having a few troubles...AND he's a massive price!


PS - got to give a pat on the back to the OP and commiserations to anyone that was on for the King George at fancy prices - I'd feel pick-pocketed! Sad
Report bluebirdfan November 25, 2012 9:35 AM GMT
I was on Conti at 44/1 for the Gold Cup; I've layed the lot off for green numbers elsewhere as I cannot see him winning it at all
Report Navel-Gazer November 25, 2012 12:21 PM GMT
BBF - that's good business.
Why don't you like him for the Gold Cup?
What are your reservations about this horse?
Report R Carver November 26, 2012 3:23 PM GMT
SC is very smart and did what was expected - travelled, jumped, quickened. I think this answered one question - stamina seems to exist satisfactorilly, something I did not think was proven before. This was more of a race than the Charlie Hall, which was laughable.

However, I think i would not be running scared of a re-match if I was Long Run. Ruby dictated what was at times a ridiculous tempo and set it up to SCs advantage. The CGC has looked like a sprint a few times (from memory, Kauto's first CGC was a sprint) but very often it is a slog and a slog might suit SC.

I have half a mind that LR, without a prep on Sat, and with connections mad keen not to bottom him horse at Haydock, can reverse the form in March. I think the horse may jump better at speed and the galloping Cheltenham track from a searching pace, ridden prominently, will improve him considerably IMO.

So I think in the right circumstances he can come out on top of the likes of Al Ferof (Ryanair bound maybe) and SC. We will see how Bob's Worth progresses and Riverside Theatre has IMO improved since being beaten by him in the King George. Finians Rainbow has to be a doutful stayer and Captain Chris has no chance going left IMO. I therefore think connections will not be massively depressed about March against the English horses.  The new Irish horses, however, could be anything and may represent a different class.

One new idea seems to have emerged about Long Run, fwiw. A few suggestions have been made that Haydock may have left a mark on him last yr. I am not sure connections suggested this at the time, however, and whilst that idea may answer their questions about why he (in their opinion) ran below form in March, I wonder how much they really believe this.
Report Navel-Gazer November 26, 2012 5:02 PM GMT
RC - these lame excuses from trainers nowadays are pathetic in comparison to yesteryear, when chasers ran two or even three times as often a season!

I find it hard to believe that connections really believe that to be a viable excuse for Long Run's disappointing run in the Gold Cup - I thought he was nailed on last March and I'm still struggling to find a reason why he clearly didn't run up to his best, and I'm losing the faith in him by the race - maybe there's an (as yet) undiagnosed physical problem? Whatever way I look at it, he is nowhere near the same horse that completed the big chasing double two seasons ago.

Years ago...I could understand when connections figured their chargers might have been 'bottomed' by a really arduous race on 'old-fashioned' heavy ground (especially when turned out again within a few weeks) but it's a glib comment when now their races are framed months apart, as seems to be the trend over the last decade or so.

Whilst not being a huge fan of Captain Chris' Gold Cup prospects, it has to be remembered that he won the Arkle from the next season's Champion Chaser, and despite his tendency to jump right, the relative slower pace of a 26f chase (as opposed to a 2M race) could suit him - he's got plenty of class though his prospects of staying has to be questioned.

He acquitted himself alright in the Ryanair, running a brave race, and so maybe it's premature to write off his chances as a no-hoper.
I laid him a few days ago at 36 for £18 (a tad too short) and I'm hopeful of backing him at some stage at three figure odds (has been 130) as he's one I'd definitely want onside come the big day, though a big run in the King George (an obvious target where he's sure to be on the premises) would scupper my plans and leave me with a hot potato.

As usual with me...it's all about value and at the price Silviniaco Conti is at the moment for the Gold Cup, he represents bad value, as just like the rest of them at the top end of the market (focusing on the top 6 or 7) he looks very speedy, with possible stamina limitations - all of them except Long Run & Bob's Worth aren't guaranteed to stay in my view, and I still question the raw ability of the latter in the highest grade.

Doesn't anyone like Quito De La Roque for the Gold Cup? He's got a touch of class and is a sure-fire stayer!
Report R Carver November 26, 2012 6:30 PM GMT
Hi Navel, interesting post! Only a quick reply here.

QDLR (I may be being unfair) might win in a total bog, but otherwise I think he would be let down for class IMO. They would be the only circumstances I could see him doing it. I still think LR will improve in the right race (an end to end gallop on a testing track). My view about him is not that Haydock took the edge off him (though it may have done) but that possibly Newbury did, albeit on decent ground. I just wonder if he peaked there.

I agre about SCs stamina doubt. I am a touch more certain now but i would still rather lay him than back him.

Re CC, I cannot have him going left (and never could have him, and said so on here, even in his novice hurdle days, when he hung badly right, even when winning at the track). I believe he got away with it in the Arkle only because the second did too much too early (CC still jumped right in the Arkle, as he did in his Kempton prep) - Finians should have won that race IMO. Interesting point about the longer trip maybe helping in that regard, but I am not sure the trip will matter. It may even see the tendency get worse (conjecture, I know!).

IMO the only reason CC did not do in the Ryanair what he did in the Cotswold Chase (ie, jump diagnoally!) was because Dickie Johnson sensibly locked him inside - he then spent a lot of the race jumping right, into Riverside Theatre, making his win all the more impressive. I believe if CC could jump straight (and I do not think Ascot proved he can) he would be a player. I also happen to think (on pretty limited evidence, I admit) that he would stay - he reminds me of Imperial Commander. It is going to be interesting! RC.
Report Navel-Gazer November 26, 2012 6:54 PM GMT
RC - "It may even see the tendency get worse (conjecture, I know!)"

That's a good point and something I have pondered over as the slower pace (in relation to a 2M race) might give him more 'thinking time' at the fences to do what HE WANTS to do (run down the obstacles) instead of obeying his pilot - it's all a big quandary as usual and this renewal is gonna be more fascinating than usual.

As for QDLR...he's acted well on decent ground before and maybe he's been unfairly & prematurely tagged as a mudlark.
I just see him as a paceless plodder that just like Synchronised, will relish every yard of the trip, and the faster they go, the faster they'll come back to him - that type of 'boat' invariably exceeds past performances come Gold Cup day...there's a long list of apparent 'flukes' that've been bang on the premises, or even won it!

I have said a few times on here that he's not one whose ability I'm totally convinced about (ratings-wise) but I feel sure he'll relish the test - the lack of course experience is definitely a concern, but at the prices, it's not gonna cost much to find out.

I thought that was a really encouraging run at Down Royal (after his setbacks) and I read that his trainer believes he's got him back to somewhere near his peak - it'll be very interesting to see his next run, as I think he's got a lot to do over 20f in the Durkan on 9th December against some quality opposition, so a defeat wouldn't concern me too much...I would be happy to see confirmation of his improvement (with a promising run) as I can't see him winning.
Report Brooksielad November 26, 2012 7:30 PM GMT
Cant quite understand why people don't think conti will stay, hes quite clearly bred to stay, the way he stayed on in his novice hurdle race against captain Chris in what was a very stamina searching race suggested he stays if there was another couple of furlongs in the Feltham he would of beat grand cru and bobs worth by a margin, personally i felt grand cru was spent at the end of that race and the way Tom scu pushed him out deceived lots of people into thinking he won easy. imo if Tom would of asked grand cru he wouldn't of gone any faster. which has been proven in the rsa and paddy power. that race was won by a tactical move. conti was the best out of all the novices last year he's proving it now with much more to come.
Report R Carver November 26, 2012 11:05 PM GMT
Brooksie, it may turn out he was the best, but at the end of their novice yrs, you could not have concluded that - sure;y the Aintree race was nowhere near as solid as the Sun Alliance?
Report R Carver November 26, 2012 11:07 PM GMT
* should have read 'surely you could not have concluded that'...
Report Brooksielad November 27, 2012 12:12 AM GMT
My theory behind thinking he was the best staying novice wasn't really to do with his win at Aintree. I took a strong view after the feltham that Conti and Bobs Worth were better than Grand Cru. The RSA confirmed this for me, lots of people on the Grand Cru wagon thought his run in the RSA was below par, personally i think that was him running his best. Bobs Worth winning the RSA would suggest he was the best staying novice last season, my view is the one other horse that finished infront of him on boxing day would of finished infront of him again in the RSA. I know Bobs Worth finished ahead of Conti at Ascot but thats when Nicholls had the illness in his yard, So there was excuses for that run.
Report judorick November 27, 2012 3:48 AM GMT
I think Cue Card will prove better than all of them. Gave 7lbs to Bobs Worth at Newbury and did not get a very inspired ride either and only got beat a short head. At level weights in a true run race I would take Cue Card over Bobs Worth every time. It was a shame he unseated when going well against Grands Crus because we would have had another piece of form to help with the jigsaw puzzle. Whether Cue Card will stay the Gold Cup trip is unknown but then at 6yo we were asking the same of Best Mate and Kauto Star - you will only find out when they try. Kicking King was another who was second in an Arkle before being stepped up in his second season, won the KG as a 6yo.

Anyway, we shall see if I'm right about CC being better than Bobs Worth during the season. Surely they will meet sooner or later. Tizzard said he chose the Haldon GC rather than the Charlie Hall because it was just down the road and he didn't want to bottom the horse on seasonal debut. He goes to Kempton bouncing.
Report roobuck November 27, 2012 8:49 AM GMT
If you are saying SC was the best staying novice of last year, where would you put Invictus? A real shame he's missed this year, every bit as much potential based on last years evidence imo
Report Eeternaloptimist November 27, 2012 10:06 AM GMT
judorick

Cue Card was race fit when they met at Newbury and Bob's Worth was having his first race of the season. It seems reasonable to presume that as with many of Henderson's he would improve for the race. Throw in that it was over two and a half which on current evidence would seem ideal for Cue Card but an inadequate trip for Bob's Worth which would seem to be supported by how he ground Cue Card down close home after being a couple of lengths down at the last.

Get them both race fit over 3 miles at Cheltenham and I'd take Bob's Worth every time.
Report judorick November 27, 2012 10:14 AM GMT
I'll take that match bet with you when it happens
Report Navel-Gazer November 27, 2012 12:24 PM GMT
JR - I'd be with Cue Card as to who's the better horse but as EO states...3M at Cheltenham, and with no stamina concerns, it has to be Bob's Worth.
Report R Carver November 27, 2012 1:38 PM GMT
Thanks for your reply Brooksie - interesting angle. Be interesting to see Bobs and SC in a slog on a left handed track. I am coming to the view too that the RSA was as good (over a trip) as GC is.

Judo, I felt Bobs' lack of a run / relative inexperience / inadequate trip might have told at Newbury when he only just beat CC (who was not given a great ride) but I do think that represents top form and also think CC is aa real tool. Do you think CC would beat Bobs in a staying race? I think CC would murder Bobs in a speed test but not over a trip which emphasises stamina.
Report R Carver November 27, 2012 1:39 PM GMT
Judo - sorry, ignore my question, I see you have already answered it.
Report Brooksielad November 27, 2012 8:44 PM GMT
I agree cant wait to see Bobs Worth and Conti do battle at Cheltenham, I think they'll finish 1 and 2 in the gold cup this season.
Report buddeliea November 27, 2012 9:17 PM GMT
blimey!!
Report R Carver November 28, 2012 12:57 PM GMT
Interesting Brooksie. I feel like I know what the British horses might be capable of but not sure how the 2nd season Irish ones will compare.
Report colupaul February 5, 2013 2:55 PM GMT
As expected SC entered in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury this Saturday...
Report buddeliea February 5, 2013 7:03 PM GMT
Not much quality in opposition,but i am interested in Mail be Bievre.Have backed him NRNB for Gold Cup,seems hes highly thought of by Tom George,could be anything.
Report colupaul February 5, 2013 7:35 PM GMT
Don't think the race will tell us much in respect of the Gold Cup except, hopefully, the well-being of SC...

I feel a bit more confident regarding SC's chances for the big one... the Lexus us told us little without an outstanding candidate emerging... Bob's Worth missing his prep cannot aid his chances and there must be a slight doubt about his participation at Cheltenham...

I doubt there will be much change in SC's price come teatime Saturday whatever he does so anything at 6s or above may be value...

Will also be interested to see how the Bolster runs having chucked a few quid at him for the Gold Cup although a poor run would not necessarily put backers off for Cheltenham imo... cheers.
Report buddeliea February 5, 2013 7:42 PM GMT
Not sure how you work out that Bobsworth is a slight doubt.
Hes going straight to the Gold Cup now,so hes more likely than horses still to run.
Report colupaul February 5, 2013 8:06 PM GMT
Any idea why Bobs Worth missed the Argento bud?  Henderson stated something along the lines that he 'wasn't quite right' but I haven't read anywhere to confirm his recent well-being either way... I'm sure all's fine in the Henderson camp but having an interrupted campaign and the tendency for the Henderson team to play their cards close to their chest would be a slight concern to me as a BW backer...
Report Brooksielad February 5, 2013 8:26 PM GMT
Both Long Run and Bobs Worth go to probably the most grueling race of the festival without a prep, interesting...
Report buddeliea February 5, 2013 9:08 PM GMT
Just decided not to run him and to go straight to Cheltenham.No reported problem with the horse as far as i know colupaul.
Agree dont seem ideal Brooksie,but i guess his trainer knows what hes doing.Personally aint that bothered really as i aint backed either of them,and probably wont,unless prices on the day appeal.
Report colupaul February 9, 2013 4:37 PM GMT
Another decent performance from SC today... surprised 6s still available...
Report San Quentin February 9, 2013 5:33 PM GMT
conti is  a good fast low jumper think the gold cup could be his and for a few years .
Report FOYLESWAR February 9, 2013 6:45 PM GMT
looking good paul ! well thought out, and good luck !
Report GoldCupWinner February 9, 2013 7:02 PM GMT
Yep ran very well I thought, I wouldn't be surprised if one of 4 or 5 would win the GC though.
Report colupaul February 9, 2013 7:03 PM GMT
Cheers Foyles! Happy

I'm beginning to think that one of the things holding the price up on SC is that Nicholls is somewhat in the shadow of Henderson compared to previous years when both trainers were slugging it out... out of all the main protagonists SC is now the most likely winner imo (although I am somewhat biased Wink)...
Report duffy February 9, 2013 7:39 PM GMT
I thought that BW had one of those mucky trachea washes,(not 100% on that mind you) simonsig had the same thing though.
Report Graeme83 February 9, 2013 7:40 PM GMT
Trachea wash, otherwise commonly known as heavy ground a month before the festival.
Report teaspoon February 9, 2013 9:08 PM GMT
Its hard to knock SC this season as he has won 3 races ..however i cannot see him beating BW at the moment.. I am not sure if Cheltenham will suit him and we know it does BW .Plus BW has beaten him in the past and i cant see any reason why that should be reversed especially at cheltenham..What are other peoples views?
Report buddeliea February 10, 2013 10:09 AM GMT
Think the prices of the 2 are about right and accurately reflect their chances.
My gut feeling is Bob would finish the stronger and more likely to relish the climb at the end.
Report colupaul March 15, 2013 7:48 PM GMT
Ah well, not to be... Sad
Report Mr Eboue March 15, 2013 7:52 PM GMT
Hard luck.

I dont think he would have beat Bobs for what its worth.
Report Brooksielad March 15, 2013 7:52 PM GMT
will win king george and next years gold cup matey, very unlucky imo :( Not made a mistake all season, had to be that fence :(
Report colupaul March 15, 2013 7:56 PM GMT
Yeah, I agree hard to envisage beating BW up the hill on today's evidence... was a joy to watch prior to the fall... Cry
Report GoldCupWinner March 15, 2013 10:07 PM GMT
I had my biggest bet of the year e/w/ Not sure he would have won but the way he kept looking BW suggets he would have placed at least. I felt sick.
Report judorick March 15, 2013 10:13 PM GMT
King George 2013 could be a very hot race indeed!
Report GoldCupWinner March 15, 2013 10:26 PM GMT
I don't think there is that many horses to contest it next year. There's Long Run, maybe Simonsig and Conti but rest of noivce winners I don't really fancy.
Report resner not lesnar March 16, 2013 8:15 AM GMT
Will they take SC to the King George? Nicholls didn't want to run him in it this year, will Al Ferof be back by then as he shouldn't be forgotten. Was Fav for the KG before injury I think and was their preferred option for the KG. I can't recall why the reluctance as SC does seem best on a flat track.
I'd like to see SC in the Argento. As well as he jumped most of the way yesterday he did make a couple of errors, which he hadn't made all year so perhaps Cheltenham's undulations may not prove to his liking. Another run at Cheltenham would be a good idea prior to the GC imo
Report buddeliea March 16, 2013 8:26 AM GMT
Was running a big race when he fell imo,and who knows what would have happened,and no doubt he will be a major player next season.
Personally think we have a serious Gold Cup horse in Bobsworth though,and because we dont know re SConti,i would say right now he may be the only horse that could stop Bob winning next March.
We also have Al Ferof to come back,but he still has to prove he stays.
The Irish horses dont stay as well as Bob,and this years novices dont look good enough.
Report Brooksielad March 16, 2013 8:43 AM GMT
agree budd this year I was adamant Bobs Worth and Conti would fight out the finish and bar the fall they would've done, there is no reason to think Silviniaco Conti doesn't stay either, he has never shown to be weak in a finish. He wasn't match fit at Newbury and they went a searching gallop and he ran away. Think that up hill finish is what he needs imo.

Think the reason behind Conti not running in the King George is because Ruby was already jocked up on Al Ferof and Nicholls didn't want him going without Ruby on his back.

Quite right about this years novice chasers aswell, the only horse I could see doing ok is Simonsig but I'm not that sure upping him to 3 miles is exactly what he needs.
Report Zach_Johnson March 16, 2013 5:15 PM GMT
Don't suppose anyone knows what sort of price I/R Conti got to prior to falling?

TIA
Report flyingbolt March 16, 2013 6:17 PM GMT
King George could be a weak race next season imo.

Bobs Worth won't run.
Sir Des Champ probably wont run.
Silviniaco Conti wont run.
Al Ferof might run but stamina unproven.

Long Run might win it again but at the moment the one I'd be interested in is Dynaste.
Report penzance March 16, 2013 8:03 PM GMT
3.25 i/r according to timeform.
Report Big Bucks John March 17, 2013 1:11 PM GMT
As a backer of Bob's Worth, I think Silviniaco Conti could be the one to take out of the race and maybe back next year if you can get a decent price.

I don't think he would of beat Bob's Worth, however I do think he wouldn't have been far behind in 2nd.
Report 50Bridge March 17, 2013 3:27 PM GMT
Here is an entry of mine from the other Conti thread.
Posted earlier in week but have said similar concerning Conti's chances since the Haydock race with Long Run.

..........................................

This (Conti) is my only real risk now First Lieutenant is deffo for Ryanair.
I even covered Flemenstar on NRNB as soon as that was available with the sponsor.
I actually saw that race at haydock with Long Run and it was not a performance from which you could draw a thing.
Ruby did what he does and worked out the race and strolled home in what amounted to a 1 mile canter.

Lack of Cheltenham form always big for me and whilst Bobsworth is my biggest winner I think SDC will outstay them all.
Look at him finishing in Lexus.

Can not see my mind changing before Friday.

Either way, we will all know by then.


.......................................

Here is my reading of the Gold Cup run, assuming Ruby was not at fault that looked to me a tired jump. With 3 to go and the hill.
It just reminded me of Flemenstar in Ireland.
I really think anyone thinking of following the horse should take one last look at those prep races and draw a line through them.
Could say the horse did very well despite its prep rather than because of.

I am not one of those throwing around abuse, this , my opinion, was based on form and I saw the Haydock race in the flesh and it was public schooling for both horses.

Looking forward to next year, maybe Conti will come on for this, his first real test but I was with BW this year from early on and he will take some beating 2014.
Report Brooksielad March 17, 2013 7:54 PM GMT
|Lack of Cheltenham form always big for me and whilst Bobsworth is my biggest winner I think SDC will outstay them all.
Look at him finishing in Lexus."

SDC looked a true stayer coming up that hill alright, no way in hell he'd have won the lexus the further they went the further Tidal Bay was going to win.

Conti's last run was probably the fastest gold cup trial run and for a horse not fully fit he seemed to enjoy it. That wasn't a tired fall I can assure you.
Report GoldCupWinner March 17, 2013 8:33 PM GMT
I don't think it was a tired fall since Ruby had spent a lot of his time looking to see where Bob's Worth was. That's a sign of a jockey who thinks he has the front two covered, not one that thinks he is on a tired horse!
Report JOCI Club March 17, 2013 11:41 PM GMT
I backed SDC and SC. SDC walked over the line in 2nd. SC looked to be travelling well at the time of his fall, but we'll never know what he would have found at the business end.
Report 50Bridge March 18, 2013 8:32 AM GMT
I suppose we will find out next year, but in a way my main point was that those 'walk over' trials really left questions unanswered.
Looking again, for the first time, accept that it may not be a tired jump.

Some race in prospect next year.

Catch up then.
Have spent some enjoyable time on these threads and made a few quid too.
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