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cyclops
24 Sep 12 13:25
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Date Joined: 11 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 1,158 | Blogger: cyclops's blog
A wonderful horse in the making, but, as value goes, this must be a cue for layers to fill their boots. I did so myself, but sadly at 10/1.
1. He may go chasing
2. He's never run over 2 miles over obstacles
3. He ran in the longer novice race, reportedly, because his jockey felt he is error prone over hurdles and ideally wanted a steadier pace
4. His Neptune win was against a far from vintage crop, and Cotton Mill could well have put it up to him had he not fallen 2 out
5. He appeared not to handle softish going the only time he was asked to tackle it in the Tolworth

I think we may well see mutliple favourites in the Champion throughout the winter as the lemmings rush in and Simonsig looks a sensible place to begin a layer's book, or add to the profits of those who laid the unfortunate Spirit Son.
Pause Switch to Standard View Simonsig 7/1 Champion Hurdle
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Report chelters16 September 24, 2012 9:13 PM BST
Strontium I thought ROR wore down the opposition with a relentless gallop rather than genuinely quickening away from the opposition if you think otherwise Id be happy to hear your thoughts or have I misinterpreted your use of punctuation.
Report strontium September 24, 2012 9:19 PM BST
Chelters - Sorry, I meant I think your suggestion that Simonsig may not have a change of pace is interesting and something I had not considered. The only time it was really tested (at Sandown on bad ground) maybe he didn't.
Report R Carver September 24, 2012 9:39 PM BST
Tongue in cheek? Certainly not. Harchinative is correct IMO. NJH has said more than once he could run Simonsig on the level. Whlst that may (or may not) have been bravado, just look at his expression when replying to Stuart Machin's assertion after the Neptune that his future lies over 3m and fences. Horror at the thought of going up to 3 and cetagorically (at that stage) dismissed it. As I say, just listen to Barry's comment after the race - he makes Riverside Theatre and (the Champion Chaser ffs!) feel like 4 milers! Again, possibly bravado, but he was mkaing a serious point.

In terms of gears, I think this horse has them to burn. Every race I have seen him in suggests it so far. The fact is nothing has been good enough to see him open up (other than a slogger, up the hill, on soft ground, over a trip which was probably too far on the ground, against a more experienced rival, who actually looked floored 2 out before outstaying him). The horse may flop this year, the horse may not improve, but he is the best novice I have seen in many, many moons. My only concern about the Champion would be the slickness of his hurdling. Fwiw, I think the horse was bred and is built for chasing, so that is probably the best option, but I have no doubt he is serious champion player if they stick to timber.
Report R Carver September 24, 2012 9:42 PM BST
Fwiw Rondetto, if they had run Oscar in the right race this yr, as a stayer he would have been presumably ridden closer to the pace (unlike the disasterous -in the event- tactics on HF and Binocular) and I think he would have been hard to knock out of the 2.
Report chelters16 September 24, 2012 9:45 PM BST
Funny as I didnt ever consider ROR did quicken away,thats why this forum is invaluable as a sounding board especially as race reading is pretty subjective at the best of times, posters like your self Strontium and others can put up ideas/theories that I had not thought of..............more power to this excellent forum outwith this part of the forum its a mixed buch of expertise,liars and fruitcakes.
Report McK30wn September 24, 2012 10:06 PM BST
Wee for what it's worth, I have heard that Simonsig is going to stay hurdling... 2 reasons.

1. A friend of the owner had a good bet on him for the champion hurdle

2. His ptp jockey christy Cullen said he can't jump fences and hurdling was always the plan...

I took a bit of the 15/2 but he could well go chasing... Just stating what I have heard... Only time will tell
Report cyclops September 24, 2012 11:09 PM BST
Funnily enough, the concern over Simonsig's jumping is also the concern regarding Grandouet. Looks awkward and guessy at many of his hurdles, particularly when the pace quickens. We've seen him fall at Aintree and Wincanton and his win in the Bula certainly didnt suggest he'd discovered fluency.
But, to revert to the original topic, many good points made here but I think the main thing that comes out is how many people are basing their thoughts on what NJH and the jockey have said about him, rather than what they have actually seen.Yet, before Spirit Son became hors de combat, it was him and Grandouet that led the Henderson team in the betting, with Simonsig unconsidered for the race.And relying too much on what this particular trainer has said in recent seasons has been a costly game to play.......
Report Distant View September 25, 2012 12:47 AM BST
He was a sick horse after the Tolworth so 5 is not as relevant as it may seem.
Report Rondetto September 25, 2012 3:18 AM BST
Racing is all about opinions and while N6 may disagree about Nicky Henderson's tongue in cheek comment lets look back to last season. Barry Geharty, no matter what the media might have you believe, not for one minute had any doubt that Simonsig should run in the Neptune. He was the one who convinced the owner and Nicky to run him there. Nicky said himself that his reasoning was it would help the horse do it in his own time.

You don't get the opportunity to do it in your own time in a Champion Hurdle and the step between the two is like trying to jump the Grand Canyon. Hardy Eustace was a tough cookie who made the switch back but there we no Hurricane Fly's in that era which is considered by many as one of the poorest in Champion Hurdle history. At the other end of the scale Istabraq also made the transition but he was perhaps one of the best hurdlers ever seen on a race track

I have to stick by my guns and say it depends on what Grandouet does. He has proven Champion Hurdle form. He absolutely trounced the CH runner Overturn albeit getting 4lbs but the result was never in a moments doubt.

I can't see avoiding Sprinter Sacre in the near future being an issue as nothing in the yard will take president over him. He'll win the QMCC this season but as sure as God made little green apples he''l be stepped up in trip the following season. If Nicky had said he wanted to go King George this year he could have as the owners already said after the Arkle a step up in trip was not out of the question.

Unfortunately Grandouet was injured and missed the Champion Hurdle and like all thing out of sight out of mind. Simonsig on the other hand won the Neptune like a superstar but so he should have. His main danger fell and the horse who finished 2nd fame to claim was he had won a poor maiden at Nass. In his nest run in a Novice Champion hurdle he went of favourite and was beaten 10 lengths further than Simonsig had beat him. Basically the form isn't worth a jot although Simonsig himself is a very good horse. His for at Aintree isn't much better though. He went of at 4/9 and beat Super Duty who's fair but was somewhat flattered when he beat Keys who apparently was injured and sent back to Roger Charlton.

The point is it's all visual with Simonsig very much like it was before the World Hurdle with Grand Crus. More often than not when these horses step out against the best they get found out. The one good horse he did take on was Fingal Bay and he was beaten but to be fair Nicky was adamant that he wasn't right and Fingle Bay would never beat him again. It's a pity he went wrong himself or we would know more.

The hard fact is people are looking through rose coloured glasses at Simonsig as he has done nothing to say he's a Champion Hurdle horse. He certainly looks the part but until he beats a top notcher over 2 miles it's a dodgy path to follow IMO.

First of you don't know if he'll even go that route and secondly you have no idea if he's even good enough. I'll rather stick with Grandouet who has the form the class and has one target and that's he Champion Hurdle.
Report R Carver September 25, 2012 9:13 AM BST
Good debate this, but 2 quick points. Grandouet was brought down at Aintree, he did not fall, and for me his jumping is fine. He was half lengthed at Wincanton because he was so fresh. And Simonsig was not beaten in the Tolworth, but in the Winter Novice, over 2.4, on undesirably soft ground by a more experienced, slogging mud lark who outstayed him and later won the Challow - if the race was stopped at 2 out, Simonsig would have been 1-20 in running, so much was his superiority at that point. Its also possibie (as alluded to) that Simonsig was not right after Sandown. After the race the trainer said "It was a great run. Barry (Geraghty) said that the rain that got into the ground probably didn't help him. He will probably have one more run somewhere then a break before we think about Cheltenham." As it transpired, they put him away immediately after the race for 75 days suggesting possibly he was not 100% after it.
Report R Carver September 25, 2012 9:14 AM BST
So basically I am agreeing with Distant View, i would take point 5 with a bit of caution, though no doubt Fingal Bay is top class.
Report FOYLESWAR September 25, 2012 1:49 PM BST
going to throw  a spanner in the works here and  look at simonsigs defeat in a different way this may spark a bit of controversy, and this is just a theory and may be well wide of the mark  but could it not be that simonsig after travelling so well and looking full of running 2 out ( barry gerahty seemed full of confidence that simonsig was going to cruise past fingal bay  in the sandown race)  was simply "eyeballed " by a horse who had the ability to go with him and quicken with him, he looks impressive on the bridal but can he do it in a battle ? ,it was a pity that cotton mill ran out when he did as it may have given us the chance to see if simonsig can battle it out in a ding dong finish .
not saying he cant battle it out, but if they do go down the champion hurdle route we may hopefully  get the opportunity to see what he is made of in one of the trials
Report stormey1 September 25, 2012 1:54 PM BST
I expect them to test the water with Simonsig in 1 of the Champion Hurdle trials ( maybe what was the Greatwood ) and take it from there.
If he wins well stay hurdling and if he gets found out send him over fences.
Report shockster September 25, 2012 2:57 PM BST
7/1 is too short IMO with all the doubts surrounding and 6 months to go.  However, if the Champion Hurdle was to be run tomorrow with all serious horses standing their ground.  He would be my choice.  Looks very special to me, and possibly the form in the book doesn't match up, but there's a lot of potential to work with.
Report strontium September 25, 2012 3:19 PM BST
Can I ask you all a couple of questions related to this slightly differently:

1. What should be favourite for the Champion Hurdle at this stage and what price should it be?
2. If applicable, what price would you make Simonsig at this stage?
Report R Carver September 25, 2012 4:01 PM BST
On all known form Strontium, I think it should be ROR. Not sure about a price for Simonsig, but given the uncertainty about him running, i would say current price is skinny.
Report FOYLESWAR September 25, 2012 4:27 PM BST
rock on ruby seems to have been slightly overlooked  he won the champ hurdle  fair and square and his price seems a bit bigger than it should be to me ,its a bit of a pig of a race to contemplate having a bet in at this stage ,so many ifs buts or maybes but if i had to have a bet now it would be rock on ruby at the prices .
Report wellchief September 25, 2012 4:39 PM BST
Just to reiterate, I think he is a fantastic horse, and he could have the ability to win at least one Champion Hurdle, and I'm pretty certain he would have won the Supreme Novices if he'd ran in it.

However, I do have to say that he is poor value at 7/1.  As I've said above, Peddlers did the same double and won a Fighting Fifth, and could still be backed at a similar price to Simonsig, who has yet to run against the big boys, and question marks over his campaign this year.

I've also said on other threads that you have to look at Cotton Mill, as based on their Neptune run, he was bang in there when he ran out, and then just didn't stay at Aintree when travelling beautifully, and is a huge price for the Champion.  I fully admit Simonsig probably had Cotton Mill's measure, but we don't know what type of improvement they've got this year.

We won't know how good any of them will be until they run in a proper Champion Hurlde trial.  What looks like a poor novice race at the time might work out fantastic, and vice versa; we won't know until next year.

In terms of who I think should still be favourite, I would still have to say Hurricane Fly.  He has only lost 1 race in 9, and is an out and out 2 mile hurdler, with class in abundance.  I know many will disagree, but I still have complete faith in him if he can stay fit.

I would have Simonsig around the 12/1 mark for the Champion now.  That's what price Peddlers was before his Fighting Fifth win - I think Simonsig probably has a better engine than Peddlers, but Peddlers is/was a better jumper of a hurdle imo (even in the Neptune, Simonsig was less than fluent at at least 2 hurdles)
Report stormey1 September 25, 2012 5:20 PM BST
Im not sure what should be fav but as for Simonsigs price considering we dont yet no
1. Is he defo staying hurdling
2. How will he fare now has to go in with big boys
3. Will his hurdling improve as it clearly needs to

Based on these facts which are off top of my head 7/1 seems very short
Report cyclops September 25, 2012 11:38 PM BST
I think, Strontium, it should be 10/1 the field, with, as others have said, Rock on Ruby heading the market. A gritty winner, by a comfortable margin, of this year's event and you'd have to expect improvement to come. I wouldnt be backing him myself, as I hope that something more special will emerge, but he's the one with least questions to answer at present.
Simonsig, I reckon should be around 14/1.
Two I've backed at huge odds are Montbazon and Countrywide Flame. The former got it all wrong with his jumping in the Supreme, but finished close up, and his trainer has always said he'd be much better with another summer behind him. As for Countrywide Flame, he was hampered at the top of the hill in the Triumph, but stormed home and has just shown improved form on the flat. An average of 75/1 garnered thus far is, in my view, outstandingly attractive. Trained by Henderson, he'd be..............
The Triumph is being ignored at present in this market, but has proved a significant race in recent times and I suspect Grumeti may have a say this year as well.
Report bluebirdfan September 26, 2012 8:41 AM BST
Rock on Ruby should be favourite and 10/1 the field sounds about right
As for Simonsig I'm guessing the main reason they've thought again about going chasing this season is Spirit Sons injury? If Nicky is finally going to break Nicholls' stranglehold on the Trainers championship he'll need a strong contender in every championship race at Cheltenham
Do we know if Cotton Mill is heading down the Champion Hurdle route this year???
Report R Carver September 26, 2012 10:52 AM BST
Strontium, what is your view pal (Simonsig price / proper fav)?
Report strontium September 26, 2012 11:09 AM BST
I was hoping you wouldn't ask Laugh

I think I'd also go for RoR as favourite at around 8/1. He won fair and square last time with no obvious sob stories behind. He's only had 8 hurdle starts, he improved 25 lbs last season and he could well improve a bit more.

Grandouet has form to put him up there but he also has the niggling injury doubt. I notice PFN is being very, very bullish about Zarkander which is interesting.

As for Simonsig, I would make him favourite for whatever his target is but because I don't know what connections are thinking I can't price it up. That's a cop out, but there you go. Not really having a clue was one reason I asked the question myself! He's from a yard where the Betfair market is often a good guide and all the recent money has been for the Champion while you can't give him away for the Arkle, but nevertheless....  I certainly respect those who think 7/1 is on the skinny side.

Thanks for the answers everyone, I think this is a particularly interesting discussion.
Report R Carver September 26, 2012 5:54 PM BST
Thanks Strontium. The not knowing is what makes this time of the yr so enjoyable and your answer was not a cop out, merely logical I think Happy

If he was 7s and a confirmed runner I would be backing him (even at this early stage) no question, not withstanding the many genuine concerns others have expressed (hurdling, trip, mettle in battle etc).
Report judorick September 26, 2012 5:55 PM BST
if the target was confirmed he would not be 7/1
Report strontium September 26, 2012 6:52 PM BST
Cheers RC.
Report strontium September 26, 2012 6:52 PM BST
Cheers RC.
Report Mr Eboue September 26, 2012 7:42 PM BST
Disgraceful price.

Utterly disgraceful.
Report Send.in.the.clowns September 27, 2012 1:24 PM BST
give me 10s Eboue and Ill have £200 with you
Report R Carver September 27, 2012 2:05 PM BST
I agree Judo! More the pity!
Report Rondetto September 30, 2012 10:36 AM BST
When considering who trains him I'd have to say Hurricane Fly should be fav. He's done it all before and Willie was a very worried man in the parade ring before his first race last season So much so he drifted like a barge. All was not well with Hurricane Fly last season IMO even when he hacked up first time out.

The fact that Willie can bring them back and have them spot on for the big day edges it for me.

I can't see Barry Geharty deserting Grandouet for Simonsig. If he did you can bet AP will step in with JP's blesssing

He was adamant that the horse ran in the Neptune last year and you can bet he wants him to run in the Arkle this year.

I'd have Grandouet 9/2 a half point behind Hurricane Fly 4/1 and Simonsig around 12/1 as he wont run but 6/1 with a run.

Rock on Ruby I'd make 7/1 . He wont win but I wouldn't offer any more than said because he will run well and could easily be placed.

Zarkander I'd go 100/1 on a win market he's out of his league and 20/1 if ew betting was allowed.

Cinders and Ashes is better than he is given credit for 18/1 is huge. Like his stable companion before him he'll be right in the firing line at the death. Great ew bet should be no more than 8/1.

Darlan isn't anywhere near good enough 25/1

Grumeti would think he'd gone into orbit if he ran in it 50/1

btw I woud l lay these prices but if anyone asks I'm outExcited
Report resner not lesnar September 30, 2012 5:54 PM BST
Rondetto when your back in I'll have that 100/1 on Zarkander Silly
Report strontium September 30, 2012 5:58 PM BST
There might be a queue. Nicholls has been extremely positive about him so far after RoR was his nap of the Festival last time. It surprises me - I don't see Zarkander as a natural 2 m hurdler - but Nicholls knows rather more about this than I do.
Report buddeliea October 1, 2012 1:01 PM BST
Well its a bad price simply cos his main target is the Arkle.

Even if his intended target was the CH hes still too short,as he has still to prove he has sufficient speed and class to win a 2m championship race,and their are others that imo are more likely to win the CH.

Personally think any bookies that do not have Rock on Ruby as favourite are bonkers!!
Unless anyone on here can give me a good reason why.
Report buddeliea October 1, 2012 1:02 PM BST
Zarkander would interest me should he be targetted at the WHurdle.
CH no chance-imo of course.
Report resner not lesnar October 1, 2012 6:44 PM BST
I think on form lines anyone who likes Grandouet & Darlan's claims must also consider a horse that has beaten both. Although we don't know what would have happened in the Betfair Hurdle had Darlan stayed up I'm fairly sure given the problems in the Nicholls yard that Zarkander wasn't at his best which makes the win all the more impressive.

He beat Grandouet twice as a Juvenile, again one of those could perhaps be chalked off due to the fall, and Nicholls has always rated him highly. At the prices he would be my bet at the moment of those at the front of the market
Report buddeliea October 1, 2012 7:00 PM BST
Fair points,just feel that he will be better over further myself.
Report strontium October 1, 2012 7:04 PM BST
But he will run over 2 m because the only options are 2 m or 3 m and Nicholls won't waste anything he considers decent against Big Buck's.
Report buddeliea October 1, 2012 7:28 PM BST
Dont doubt that Stront,but i reckon eventually he will prove hes a stayer.
Report judorick October 1, 2012 7:34 PM BST
Zarkandar could improve 14 to 20lb easily this term. He had an interrupted preparation, was coughing after Newbury and was only a five year old in a CH which we know has proved to be a major negative over many years

He was also the strongest finisher in a race where it paid to be prominent, so he has to be considered a big player. The other two for me are Grandouet and Simonsig.
Report Howdi October 1, 2012 7:36 PM BST
and put me down for 500
Report resner not lesnar October 1, 2012 7:37 PM BST
I think he's a real grinder and that maybe gives the impression he'll be better over further. It's obvious that Nicholls rates him as better than the current Champ, he was much sweeter on Zarkander all season despite his issues (and ROR being trained at the Satellite yard).

In a year when things are pretty tight at the head of the market with no obvious superstar a real battler like this one could prove best in the finish
Report buddeliea October 1, 2012 7:47 PM BST
Dont take too much notice of Nicholls comments imo

Rock on Ruby was good winner,always up there and quickened at the end,and will be hard to beat again imo.Hes proved he stays further and it will take some horse to outbattle him up that hill.
Yes Zarkander will improve,or should do from 5-6,and i could be wrong of course about him being a stayer,but if i am i still cannot see him beating ROR.
Report strontium October 1, 2012 9:40 PM BST
Nicholls was very positive about RoR before the Festival - he had him as his charity bet of the meeting at the Sandown preview evening. I'd therefore judge his bullishness about Zarkander to be worth noting.
Report buddeliea October 2, 2012 7:45 AM BST
Take yer point,but i have had my fingers burnt enough listening to trainers.

I go with my eyes,and live or die by it.
Report R Carver October 2, 2012 1:54 PM BST
I think Zarkander looks like furthert will help but I agree that he wil probably be campaigned at 2 this yr. I also agree completely with Judo. That was a very decent run, given the issues Judo raises, for a 5yr old. Further in time certainly. I happen to think Simonsig would destroy him for speed over 2. Grandouet could be interesting in this company and still think (though probably stupidly) that Binocular and Hurricane, with better rides, may have one last piece to say. ROR i think should be favourite on all known form at this stage but IMO only an average champion hurdler.
Report judorick October 2, 2012 4:19 PM BST
I certainly do not think the Champion Hurdle form is anything to write home about. Two of the expected principals were held up way out the back (Hurricane Fly and Bino) and McCoy seemed determined to ride his to beat HF rather than win the race. The prominent racers never seemed to really be galloping (Overturn and ROR were restrained in front imo) and it was extremely difficult to come from off the pace. I can certainly see the result being reversed quite easily or a new contender coming into it. Just think the likelihood of the race being run to suit the front runners again is not high and I am confident that neither of the first two home in 2012 will be winning in 2013

This division is one of the hardest not least because we don't know which runners are going to turn up
Report Howdi October 2, 2012 4:24 PM BST
Grandouet on the snaff in 2013 Cool
Report judorick October 2, 2012 4:36 PM BST
could well be Howdi, clearly very smart, need to see him back on the track
Report buddeliea October 2, 2012 5:19 PM BST
indeed we do,has to have improved from when we last saw him,as he was only 4 then.
Report cyclops October 5, 2012 10:53 AM BST
Simonsig has now tightened up again in the Arkle market, suggesting that Henderson's comments about decisions being made after he schools are probably accurate, rather than the yard leaning heavily one way or the other at this point. Though, presumably, to even bother schooling him over fences would imply that this is the preferred option?
Report R Carver October 5, 2012 2:11 PM BST
My view entirely Cyclops.
Report buddeliea October 5, 2012 5:06 PM BST
Yep,chasing has always been the preferred option,and to my mind he stays hurdling only if they are not happy with the schooling.
Report giggsy3444 October 5, 2012 5:12 PM BST
the way he's shortened on hear there must have been some sort of plan now set out.
Report Howdi October 8, 2012 2:23 PM BST
come on chemical nicky show us your hand we are all eager to take 5-2 he wins the arjle in 6 months time Laugh
Report Howdi October 8, 2012 2:24 PM BST
^^^ that should have read the arkle not the arjle which isn't a new race put up by cheltenahm directive to make the festival 5 days.Plain
Report wellchief October 8, 2012 6:31 PM BST
Howdi, last time someone spelt Arkle wrong on here got all kinds of abuse Laugh

http://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/28869881/?liveView=0

Poor giggsy and his "Ankle Betting", but then again he did have the winner at 10's!
Report Howdi October 8, 2012 7:03 PM BST
you are forgetting I'm a well respected member of the forum chief lad Laugh

can't see me getting abuse unless my stalker (celtic son) is let out of prison.
Report cyclops October 17, 2012 11:32 AM BST
Simosig now drifting out again in this market, with 12.5 currently available. At the very least, this would suggest that he won't for sure be staying over hurdles, and that schooling over fences is either taking place or scheduled to do so.
Report Howdi October 17, 2012 12:02 PM BST
must have scholled some now its 2 weeks away from november!!!!

Nicky knows he is just playing silly buggers
Report Howdi October 17, 2012 12:03 PM BST
** schooled
Report bluebirdfan October 17, 2012 12:32 PM BST
Agreed he must have been schooled by now; maybe they just genuinly can't decide which way to go or Hendo wants to take one route and the owner wants to go the other
Report Howdi October 17, 2012 12:43 PM BST
they know
Report bluebirdfan October 17, 2012 6:15 PM BST
The betting moves today suggests he's Arkle bound
Report festivalfanatic October 17, 2012 6:22 PM BST
He's been up and down on here like a tarts drawers. Interesting, he's changed very little on the books. Best price 4/1 for the Arkle and they are also the shortest for the CH at 6/1. I suspect you are right bbf but not a done deal yet.
Report festivalfanatic October 17, 2012 6:23 PM BST
Joe Coral.....I shouldn't be allowed out on my own these days!!
Report strontium October 17, 2012 6:27 PM BST
Even if he runs in a couple of novice chases he may still end up over hurdles in March if it turns out he can't jump.
Report cyclops October 18, 2012 9:57 AM BST
True, Strontium, and the cases of both Beech Road and Morley Street show that horses have come back from abortive chasing campaigns to win the Champion Hurdle. However, you can't give Sominsig away looking today's Champion market here, suggesting either he's had a setback or they've definitely decided to start out over fences.
Report BJG October 18, 2012 10:37 AM BST
20+ now for CH, it appears a decision has been made
Report giggsy3444 October 19, 2012 11:39 PM BST
i knew he was going to go over fences and if he takes to them in a race then he must be a good thing for the ARKLE. i'm on him at 6/1 on here as all the will he wont he "pundits" had their opinion! i'll be thanking all yas in March!! lol.
Report cyclops October 26, 2012 12:53 PM BST
Those who took the advice at the top of this thread now have very pleasant options, as he drifts ever out. Personally, I think I'll hang on to my substantial lays at 10/1; as long as his first race is over hurdles, its unlikely he'd come back into the mareket at less than that price, should they need to abort his chasing career.
Report giggsy3444 October 27, 2012 1:33 PM BST
said to jump well at home and will make his debut in the next few weeks. that will tell u all u need to know. i say he hacks up and is best price 5/2 for arkle and drifts like a barge in the champion hurdle.
Report HaylingBilly October 27, 2012 4:35 PM BST
I am quite sure his first race will be over hurdles.........doesnt mean he wont jump a fence or go for the Arkle but reckon first time out will be over hurdles.
Report festivalfanatic October 27, 2012 7:51 PM BST
What makes you say that? 'Quite sure' infers that you know something.
Report HaylingBilly October 27, 2012 8:29 PM BST
Apologies. I didnt mean to infer any inside knowledge. Not the case. The 7Barrows Team have made it clear they are not yet happy with his fencing and they will want to get a run in to him and thus with such a high profile horse they will take him hurdling in public and keep schooling at home until they are clear he is ready. That may be 2012. It may be 2013. Just my view. No inside knowledge.
Report Howdi October 27, 2012 8:30 PM BST
^^^^^^ Ill give you 16s
Report HaylingBilly October 27, 2012 8:34 PM BST
16's he wont go hurdling first this season ? Is that what you are saying. I'll take it.
Report festivalfanatic October 27, 2012 10:47 PM BST
Hayling

Where have the 7 Barrows team made it clear they are not happy with his schooling over fences? I'm not suggesting to the contrary but I've heard nothing and am unaware of any public utterances on the matter.
Report buddeliea October 28, 2012 9:54 AM GMT
i would be interested in the answer to that as well
Report Howdi October 28, 2012 9:57 AM GMT
There is no way he will go hurdling and then reverty to fences mate.

Already said this weekend that fencing debut will happen in next 2-3 weeks./
Report tinkler October 28, 2012 2:57 PM GMT
If he's very novicey in his first one or too runs over fences they may switch back too hurdles pretty quickly ,especially if
Henderson's 2m hurdlers aren't showing much.
Report Ekbalco October 30, 2012 7:45 PM GMT
Poor call from Seven Barrows imv - this horse would have taken the 2013 Champion Hurdle - a smooth travelling machine with a turn of foot.

Still might - but it was clear last season he ticks all the right boxes for full steam ahead to Champion.
Report festivalfanatic October 30, 2012 8:06 PM GMT
Suspect there are a combination of factors at play here.

Yard has Darlan and Grandouet for the CH.

Simonsig was purchased to be a steeplechaser, not a hurdler.

Apart from the politics in the yard, you need to look at the owner. I don't believe Ronnie Bartlett has ever bought a horse with the specific aim for it to be a top hurdler. Don't assume that in his eyes, the Champion Hurdle is a bigger prize than the Arkle Trophy.
Report Ekbalco October 31, 2012 1:27 PM GMT
Fair points festers - but this horse is a much superior hurdler to Darlan and Grandouet imv.

It's nothing to do with me - I don't pay the bills.

Just my view.
Report gravy November 5, 2012 1:50 PM GMT
That's that then. NJH confirms it's chasing in today's RP
Report judorick November 5, 2012 2:10 PM GMT
correct decision imo
Report buddeliea November 5, 2012 5:09 PM GMT
yep,and werent really in doubt imo.
Horse was bought for chasing,and trainer has said all along hes a chaser,and would be going chasing this season.
Report Howdi November 5, 2012 6:14 PM GMT
If he falls on debut then what Excited
Report strontium November 5, 2012 6:22 PM GMT
Any word on where/when he'll run?
Report judorick November 5, 2012 6:35 PM GMT
tends to keep them away from Cheltenham

likely places Stratford, Bangor, Doncaster, Kempton, Newbury possibly Ascot
Report festivalfanatic November 5, 2012 9:18 PM GMT
You're rght about Cheltenham Judo.

Can't see Simonsig at a tight gaff like Stratford. Ascot, Newbury or kempton the most likely to me though he may follow the monster route, which would mean Doncaster. All 4 capable of producing decent winter ground. Don't think he'll run in a bog, that's for sure.
Report judorick November 5, 2012 9:46 PM GMT
yup good work Fanatic
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat November 8, 2012 8:15 PM GMT
id expect him to run at newbury winter fest
Report R Carver November 8, 2012 8:18 PM GMT
As would I /\, wide open, galloping track, perfect.
Report wellchief November 8, 2012 9:24 PM GMT
This year's Arkle not really doing anything for me at the moment.

Along with the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle, its my fav race of the festival; but so far its not really getting me excited.  This time last year we had the unknowns of Sprinter, Peddlers, Al Ferof, Menorah and Cue Card - all top notch hurdlers.

This years list so far is nothing like that level of quality.  A lot can change from now until March though, so not quite writing the race off yet though Grin
Report giggsy3444 November 9, 2012 1:00 PM GMT
cant wait 2 c him over a fence. i remember a flying grey called morceli who was a great jumper of a fence. would love to c him really take to the job. if he does then its game over come the arkle.
Report strontium November 9, 2012 1:19 PM GMT
There doesn't appear to be a suitable race for him at the Henessey meeting unless he's going to debut in the 2 1/2 m Grade 2. The only shorter novice chase is a handicap for which he (presumably) won't be eligible.
Report R Carver November 9, 2012 1:43 PM GMT
That's right Strontium, they removed the 2m novice last yr, didn't they (hence SS going to Doncaster)? I had forgotten.
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat November 9, 2012 8:20 PM GMT
lets not forget how good arvike legionnaire looks.
Report BJG November 25, 2012 6:17 PM GMT
Last price matched 13.5 for Arkle - has Nicky put everyone away again ShockedCrazyLaugh
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