Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
A wonderful horse in the making, but, as value goes, this must be a cue for layers to fill their boots. I did so myself, but sadly at 10/1.
1. He may go chasing
2. He's never run over 2 miles over obstacles
3. He ran in the longer novice race, reportedly, because his jockey felt he is error prone over hurdles and ideally wanted a steadier pace
4. His Neptune win was against a far from vintage crop, and Cotton Mill could well have put it up to him had he not fallen 2 out
5. He appeared not to handle softish going the only time he was asked to tackle it in the Tolworth
I think we may well see mutliple favourites in the Champion throughout the winter as the lemmings rush in and Simonsig looks a sensible place to begin a layer's book, or add to the profits of those who laid the unfortunate Spirit Son.
1. He may go chasing
2. He's never run over 2 miles over obstacles
3. He ran in the longer novice race, reportedly, because his jockey felt he is error prone over hurdles and ideally wanted a steadier pace
4. His Neptune win was against a far from vintage crop, and Cotton Mill could well have put it up to him had he not fallen 2 out
5. He appeared not to handle softish going the only time he was asked to tackle it in the Tolworth
I think we may well see mutliple favourites in the Champion throughout the winter as the lemmings rush in and Simonsig looks a sensible place to begin a layer's book, or add to the profits of those who laid the unfortunate Spirit Son.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 109
|
By:
I don't really see many of those points as negatives to be honest.
2 and 3 aren't because Neptune horses have a far superior record in the Champion to Supreme horses - i.e. you want one that stays 2 1/2 miles to win the Champion Hurdle. He's also likely to get a fast pace in the Champion which helped his jumping last year (plus he'd be a season more experienced anyway). 5 is probably irrelevant given the policy of going for G/S on Tuesday and the excellent drainage at Cheltenham. 1 and 4 are perfectly valid and indeed I am looking forward to seeing what Cotton Mill does this season. I do think you're right there will be some volatility in the market - Hurricane Fly will beat up some rubbish in Ireland and then the lemmings will rush in. Grandouet will probably shorten if he makes a successful return from injury (which is likely if the injury was as minor as said - if not, he's have drifted in the market). Rock on Ruby is not getting enough respect imo and as a relatively inexperienced horse is likley to improve further. |
|
By:
Yes, its strange how little ROR seems to be respected considering he did it so well in March, with so little experience behind him. Just not a horse people seem to have taken to, for some reason. As for the Hurricane, few runs have puzzled me as much as his did. Never travelled with his usual fluency and just plugged on. Maybe, despite having won in 2011, Cheltenham doesnt really suit.His win was far less impressive than his other performances might have led you to expect. But, much as I appreciate him, it would be hard to shout his claims at this stage.
As for Simonsig, of course the Neptune has a better Champion Hurdle record than the Supreme. My point was more that we have no reference point for him having the speed to live with, and jump with, crack two milers. Not to say he won't be able to, but it needs to be proved before he can be considered a contender. And, as for the going, one year it must rain on Champion Hurdle day. It used to do nothing but pour on the first day of the meeting. |
|
By:
My take on HF is that he's undergoing the natural decline one would expect of an 8/9 yo hurdler - but that could be completely wrong!
Laying Simonsig is fair enough - there are doubts as you rightly say. My impression is he is fast enough for 2 m but I'm sure we'll find out as the season progresses. I do think, at this stage, he's the most likely CH winner, and at 7/1 (in an open looking year) I would marginally be a backer rather than a layer. Of course I take your point about the rain - I'm just not in the habit of betting on the weather 6 months ahead! In early May meetings were being cancelled all over the country because of the rain and waterlogging but it was only soft at Cheltenham even then - so if they want G/S ground it would take something exceptional for them not to get it. |
|
By:
I to think that 7/1 is pretty poor value, although I was the horses biggest fan last year.
Peddlers Cross did the Neptune - Aintree double, then he beat the reigining Champion Hurdle winner in the Fighting Fifth, and could still be backed around 6/1 after he'd won that. As you say, its a very open market at the moment, and 7/1 could look like a huge price come March, but it's not a bet that'd interest me at all at this moment in time - mainly because of your points 1, 2 and 4. |
|
By:
He did not run over the 2m Tolworth but over 2.4 in the Winter Novice against absolute grinder and soft ground horse Fingal Bay - he travelled like the winner to 2 out and then flattened, up the hill. Personally, I think he simply got out-stayed that day on the soft ground, up the hill, against a stayer. He was beaten less than 3l and he beat Barbatos 16 giving 3. I would say that form is dynamite.
|
|
By:
IMO The only way Simonsig will run in the Champion Hurdle is if Grandouet shows any ill effects from his injury. Considering he's fully recovered and apparently working better than ever that has to be extremely doubtful. If it were a straight toss up between 2 races he'd go for the Champion as it's worth 3 times more than the Arkle but the putting his chasing debut back when he's crying out for a fence would be bad policy long term.
I have massive confidence in Grandouet who IMO would laugh at Simonsig who as Cyclops points out has never even run over 2 miles. Huge difference between beating horses like Cotton Mill and running in the Champion and a stayer like Simonsig will always struggle. He may look fast but Oscar Whisky over 2m4f also looks like a world beater but back at 2 miles he's just a very good horse. When Nicky says he has no worries about dropping Simonsig back to 2 miles his tongue is stuck in his cheek as he's talking Arkle not Champion Hurdle IMO. What he will be thinking is wtf do I do if Grandouet lets me down?. Darlan isn't good enough and he'll be trained to the minute for Newbury and Binocular has never been the same horse in 2 years. All down to what Grandouet does first time out which will probably be Wicanton then Fighting Fifth Xmas hurdle and Champion Hurdle and I'm backing him to win all 4. Biggest danger has to be Hurricane Fly who's a long way off dead and is still a worthy fav as he's done it all before. |
|
By:
don't buy this 'all down to what grandouet does'...lets remember Henderson doesn't own the horse!! Now I don't have an axe to grind as I've not had a bet yet but if I was an owner I'd be thinking 'what have we got to lose by going down the Champion Hurdle route'? To my mind there aren't many top class hurdlers around at 2 miles so why not have a crack? If it doesn't come off he can still go down the novice chase route next season.
|
|
By:
Simonsig was by far the best novice hurdler last year,its Neptune win at 2 1/2m doesnt worry me as Istabraq followed the same route to the CH,,its defeat by Fingals Bay wouldnt worry me either as it was its first outing of the season,BUT this lad doesnt hurdle quickly or fluently enough for me(looks a chaser to me) and I wonder if he has a real change of pace(although ROR won without one last year)even with all these doubts still wouldnt lay him but dont see him winning what will probably wont be the strongest renewal.
It would be great if the Fighting Fifth threw up a sparkling performance to get the market really going. |
|
By:
Just musing, but another year over hurdles keeps him away from Sprinter Sacre for another year, which may be seen as a good thing, not least by his trainer.
In answer to a few points above, it's staying novice hurlders that generally win the Champion Hurdle, not the out and out 2 milers. It's weird to worry about hudlers from the Henderson yard being too slow. Simonsig's non-fluent hurdling was pretty much all when they were trotting along - he looks fine when he's galloping, which he would be in the CH (and he got better as the season went on anyway). Interesting point about the change of pace Chelters! |
|
By:
Strontium I thought ROR wore down the opposition with a relentless gallop rather than genuinely quickening away from the opposition if you think otherwise Id be happy to hear your thoughts or have I misinterpreted your use of punctuation.
|
|
By:
Chelters - Sorry, I meant I think your suggestion that Simonsig may not have a change of pace is interesting and something I had not considered. The only time it was really tested (at Sandown on bad ground) maybe he didn't.
|
|
By:
Tongue in cheek? Certainly not. Harchinative is correct IMO. NJH has said more than once he could run Simonsig on the level. Whlst that may (or may not) have been bravado, just look at his expression when replying to Stuart Machin's assertion after the Neptune that his future lies over 3m and fences. Horror at the thought of going up to 3 and cetagorically (at that stage) dismissed it. As I say, just listen to Barry's comment after the race - he makes Riverside Theatre and (the Champion Chaser ffs!) feel like 4 milers! Again, possibly bravado, but he was mkaing a serious point.
In terms of gears, I think this horse has them to burn. Every race I have seen him in suggests it so far. The fact is nothing has been good enough to see him open up (other than a slogger, up the hill, on soft ground, over a trip which was probably too far on the ground, against a more experienced rival, who actually looked floored 2 out before outstaying him). The horse may flop this year, the horse may not improve, but he is the best novice I have seen in many, many moons. My only concern about the Champion would be the slickness of his hurdling. Fwiw, I think the horse was bred and is built for chasing, so that is probably the best option, but I have no doubt he is serious champion player if they stick to timber. |
|
By:
Fwiw Rondetto, if they had run Oscar in the right race this yr, as a stayer he would have been presumably ridden closer to the pace (unlike the disasterous -in the event- tactics on HF and Binocular) and I think he would have been hard to knock out of the 2.
|
|
By:
Funny as I didnt ever consider ROR did quicken away,thats why this forum is invaluable as a sounding board especially as race reading is pretty subjective at the best of times, posters like your self Strontium and others can put up ideas/theories that I had not thought of..............more power to this excellent forum outwith this part of the forum its a mixed buch of expertise,liars and fruitcakes.
|
|
By:
Wee for what it's worth, I have heard that Simonsig is going to stay hurdling... 2 reasons.
1. A friend of the owner had a good bet on him for the champion hurdle 2. His ptp jockey christy Cullen said he can't jump fences and hurdling was always the plan... I took a bit of the 15/2 but he could well go chasing... Just stating what I have heard... Only time will tell |
|
By:
Funnily enough, the concern over Simonsig's jumping is also the concern regarding Grandouet. Looks awkward and guessy at many of his hurdles, particularly when the pace quickens. We've seen him fall at Aintree and Wincanton and his win in the Bula certainly didnt suggest he'd discovered fluency.
But, to revert to the original topic, many good points made here but I think the main thing that comes out is how many people are basing their thoughts on what NJH and the jockey have said about him, rather than what they have actually seen.Yet, before Spirit Son became hors de combat, it was him and Grandouet that led the Henderson team in the betting, with Simonsig unconsidered for the race.And relying too much on what this particular trainer has said in recent seasons has been a costly game to play....... |
|
By:
He was a sick horse after the Tolworth so 5 is not as relevant as it may seem.
|
|
By:
Racing is all about opinions and while N6 may disagree about Nicky Henderson's tongue in cheek comment lets look back to last season. Barry Geharty, no matter what the media might have you believe, not for one minute had any doubt that Simonsig should run in the Neptune. He was the one who convinced the owner and Nicky to run him there. Nicky said himself that his reasoning was it would help the horse do it in his own time.
You don't get the opportunity to do it in your own time in a Champion Hurdle and the step between the two is like trying to jump the Grand Canyon. Hardy Eustace was a tough cookie who made the switch back but there we no Hurricane Fly's in that era which is considered by many as one of the poorest in Champion Hurdle history. At the other end of the scale Istabraq also made the transition but he was perhaps one of the best hurdlers ever seen on a race track I have to stick by my guns and say it depends on what Grandouet does. He has proven Champion Hurdle form. He absolutely trounced the CH runner Overturn albeit getting 4lbs but the result was never in a moments doubt. I can't see avoiding Sprinter Sacre in the near future being an issue as nothing in the yard will take president over him. He'll win the QMCC this season but as sure as God made little green apples he''l be stepped up in trip the following season. If Nicky had said he wanted to go King George this year he could have as the owners already said after the Arkle a step up in trip was not out of the question. Unfortunately Grandouet was injured and missed the Champion Hurdle and like all thing out of sight out of mind. Simonsig on the other hand won the Neptune like a superstar but so he should have. His main danger fell and the horse who finished 2nd fame to claim was he had won a poor maiden at Nass. In his nest run in a Novice Champion hurdle he went of favourite and was beaten 10 lengths further than Simonsig had beat him. Basically the form isn't worth a jot although Simonsig himself is a very good horse. His for at Aintree isn't much better though. He went of at 4/9 and beat Super Duty who's fair but was somewhat flattered when he beat Keys who apparently was injured and sent back to Roger Charlton. The point is it's all visual with Simonsig very much like it was before the World Hurdle with Grand Crus. More often than not when these horses step out against the best they get found out. The one good horse he did take on was Fingal Bay and he was beaten but to be fair Nicky was adamant that he wasn't right and Fingle Bay would never beat him again. It's a pity he went wrong himself or we would know more. The hard fact is people are looking through rose coloured glasses at Simonsig as he has done nothing to say he's a Champion Hurdle horse. He certainly looks the part but until he beats a top notcher over 2 miles it's a dodgy path to follow IMO. First of you don't know if he'll even go that route and secondly you have no idea if he's even good enough. I'll rather stick with Grandouet who has the form the class and has one target and that's he Champion Hurdle. |
|
By:
Good debate this, but 2 quick points. Grandouet was brought down at Aintree, he did not fall, and for me his jumping is fine. He was half lengthed at Wincanton because he was so fresh. And Simonsig was not beaten in the Tolworth, but in the Winter Novice, over 2.4, on undesirably soft ground by a more experienced, slogging mud lark who outstayed him and later won the Challow - if the race was stopped at 2 out, Simonsig would have been 1-20 in running, so much was his superiority at that point. Its also possibie (as alluded to) that Simonsig was not right after Sandown. After the race the trainer said "It was a great run. Barry (Geraghty) said that the rain that got into the ground probably didn't help him. He will probably have one more run somewhere then a break before we think about Cheltenham." As it transpired, they put him away immediately after the race for 75 days suggesting possibly he was not 100% after it.
|
|
By:
So basically I am agreeing with Distant View, i would take point 5 with a bit of caution, though no doubt Fingal Bay is top class.
|
|
By:
going to throw a spanner in the works here and look at simonsigs defeat in a different way this may spark a bit of controversy, and this is just a theory and may be well wide of the mark but could it not be that simonsig after travelling so well and looking full of running 2 out ( barry gerahty seemed full of confidence that simonsig was going to cruise past fingal bay in the sandown race) was simply "eyeballed " by a horse who had the ability to go with him and quicken with him, he looks impressive on the bridal but can he do it in a battle ? ,it was a pity that cotton mill ran out when he did as it may have given us the chance to see if simonsig can battle it out in a ding dong finish .
not saying he cant battle it out, but if they do go down the champion hurdle route we may hopefully get the opportunity to see what he is made of in one of the trials |
|
By:
I expect them to test the water with Simonsig in 1 of the Champion Hurdle trials ( maybe what was the Greatwood ) and take it from there.
If he wins well stay hurdling and if he gets found out send him over fences. |
|
By:
7/1 is too short IMO with all the doubts surrounding and 6 months to go. However, if the Champion Hurdle was to be run tomorrow with all serious horses standing their ground. He would be my choice. Looks very special to me, and possibly the form in the book doesn't match up, but there's a lot of potential to work with.
|
|
By:
Can I ask you all a couple of questions related to this slightly differently:
1. What should be favourite for the Champion Hurdle at this stage and what price should it be? 2. If applicable, what price would you make Simonsig at this stage? |
|
By:
On all known form Strontium, I think it should be ROR. Not sure about a price for Simonsig, but given the uncertainty about him running, i would say current price is skinny.
|
|
By:
rock on ruby seems to have been slightly overlooked he won the champ hurdle fair and square and his price seems a bit bigger than it should be to me ,its a bit of a pig of a race to contemplate having a bet in at this stage ,so many ifs buts or maybes but if i had to have a bet now it would be rock on ruby at the prices .
|
|
By:
Just to reiterate, I think he is a fantastic horse, and he could have the ability to win at least one Champion Hurdle, and I'm pretty certain he would have won the Supreme Novices if he'd ran in it.
However, I do have to say that he is poor value at 7/1. As I've said above, Peddlers did the same double and won a Fighting Fifth, and could still be backed at a similar price to Simonsig, who has yet to run against the big boys, and question marks over his campaign this year. I've also said on other threads that you have to look at Cotton Mill, as based on their Neptune run, he was bang in there when he ran out, and then just didn't stay at Aintree when travelling beautifully, and is a huge price for the Champion. I fully admit Simonsig probably had Cotton Mill's measure, but we don't know what type of improvement they've got this year. We won't know how good any of them will be until they run in a proper Champion Hurlde trial. What looks like a poor novice race at the time might work out fantastic, and vice versa; we won't know until next year. In terms of who I think should still be favourite, I would still have to say Hurricane Fly. He has only lost 1 race in 9, and is an out and out 2 mile hurdler, with class in abundance. I know many will disagree, but I still have complete faith in him if he can stay fit. I would have Simonsig around the 12/1 mark for the Champion now. That's what price Peddlers was before his Fighting Fifth win - I think Simonsig probably has a better engine than Peddlers, but Peddlers is/was a better jumper of a hurdle imo (even in the Neptune, Simonsig was less than fluent at at least 2 hurdles) |
|
By:
Im not sure what should be fav but as for Simonsigs price considering we dont yet no
1. Is he defo staying hurdling 2. How will he fare now has to go in with big boys 3. Will his hurdling improve as it clearly needs to Based on these facts which are off top of my head 7/1 seems very short |
|
By:
I think, Strontium, it should be 10/1 the field, with, as others have said, Rock on Ruby heading the market. A gritty winner, by a comfortable margin, of this year's event and you'd have to expect improvement to come. I wouldnt be backing him myself, as I hope that something more special will emerge, but he's the one with least questions to answer at present.
Simonsig, I reckon should be around 14/1. Two I've backed at huge odds are Montbazon and Countrywide Flame. The former got it all wrong with his jumping in the Supreme, but finished close up, and his trainer has always said he'd be much better with another summer behind him. As for Countrywide Flame, he was hampered at the top of the hill in the Triumph, but stormed home and has just shown improved form on the flat. An average of 75/1 garnered thus far is, in my view, outstandingly attractive. Trained by Henderson, he'd be.............. The Triumph is being ignored at present in this market, but has proved a significant race in recent times and I suspect Grumeti may have a say this year as well. |
|
By:
Rock on Ruby should be favourite and 10/1 the field sounds about right
As for Simonsig I'm guessing the main reason they've thought again about going chasing this season is Spirit Sons injury? If Nicky is finally going to break Nicholls' stranglehold on the Trainers championship he'll need a strong contender in every championship race at Cheltenham Do we know if Cotton Mill is heading down the Champion Hurdle route this year??? |
|
By:
Strontium, what is your view pal (Simonsig price / proper fav)?
|
|
By:
I was hoping you wouldn't ask
 I think I'd also go for RoR as favourite at around 8/1. He won fair and square last time with no obvious sob stories behind. He's only had 8 hurdle starts, he improved 25 lbs last season and he could well improve a bit more. Grandouet has form to put him up there but he also has the niggling injury doubt. I notice PFN is being very, very bullish about Zarkander which is interesting. As for Simonsig, I would make him favourite for whatever his target is but because I don't know what connections are thinking I can't price it up. That's a cop out, but there you go. Not really having a clue was one reason I asked the question myself! He's from a yard where the Betfair market is often a good guide and all the recent money has been for the Champion while you can't give him away for the Arkle, but nevertheless.... I certainly respect those who think 7/1 is on the skinny side. Thanks for the answers everyone, I think this is a particularly interesting discussion. |
|
By:
Thanks Strontium. The not knowing is what makes this time of the yr so enjoyable and your answer was not a cop out, merely logical I think
 If he was 7s and a confirmed runner I would be backing him (even at this early stage) no question, not withstanding the many genuine concerns others have expressed (hurdling, trip, mettle in battle etc). |
|
By:
if the target was confirmed he would not be 7/1
|
|
By:
Cheers RC.
|
|
By:
Cheers RC.
|
|
By:
Disgraceful price.
Utterly disgraceful. |
|
By:
give me 10s Eboue and Ill have £200 with you
|
|
By:
I agree Judo! More the pity!
|